Stay up to date on the latest market news with daily analysis of the investing landscape, served up Brew-style.

Brew Markets

Photo Illustration: Dianna "Mick" McDougall; Sources: Getty Images

Commodities

Lucy Brewster

brewmarkets.com

 have undeniably been better: Inflation is sticky, geopolitical upheaval shows no signs of stopping, and the US debt pile just keeps growing. Those factors have driven gold’s record rally this year, and boosted other safe haven investments along with it.

Now, there’s a new catalyst that pushed the commodity above 

 for the first time ever: The protracted US government shutdown.

All that unsavory news is coming together to revive the 

, which is essentially when investors move their money into safe haven assets to protect against the decline of a fiat currency (in this case, the dollar).

That’s why the dollar’s lackluster year has kept gold glittering. The US dollar index is down more than 9% in 2025, its worst year since 1973. Gold, on the other hand, has soared 53.62% this year.

The debasement trade isn’t just boosting gold, either. Bitcoin has popped 9.84% over the past month, partially for the same reason: As the dollar fades, traders are looking for alternatives completely severed from the currency. Though, yes, there’s an obvious irony that one of the most volatile assets of all time is being used as a “safe haven.”

On the flip side, it’s not exactly great news that the 

 A weaker dollar not only means that traders are betting against the US economy, but it also devalues fixed income assets and can reduce the buying power of American consumers over the long term.

Gold has outpaced the S&P 500, bitcoin, and even Nvidia over the past 12 months, and the pros think the good times won’t end anytime soon: Goldman Sachs just upgraded its December 2026 price target to $4,900 per ounce, up from its previous $4,300 per ounce.

On top of that, famed investor and Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio argued that putting 15% of your entire portfolio in gold makes sense, noting that today’s economic environment 

“Gold is the only asset that somebody can hold and you don’t have to depend on somebody else to pay you money for,” Dalio said at the Greenwich Economic Forum today. That’s simple enough logic for us.—

A gold chain in the form of a dollar sign

Gold could rise to $4,900 next year: Goldman Sachs

Safe haven assets are having a moment during the government shutdown.

Gold is running circles around the stock market

With the S&P 500 up 13.18% this year, you may have missed that the best investment of 2025 hasn’t been stocks, bonds, or even crypto: It’s precious metals.

The returns speak for themselves: Gold has risen 45.8% in 2025, silver has soared 52.29%, and even less-popular platinum is up 66.44%. The S&P 500 just hit its 28th new all-time high this year, while gold has hit 36 all-time highs. In fact, it just broke its record for the third straight day in a row today, putting the hot commodity on pace for its best year since 1979.

Gold’s hot streak is thanks to a number of baseline factors, including a weaker dollar, inflation concerns, and geopolitical turmoil. That last one in particular has pushed central banks around the globe to stock up on gold, while individual investors have done the same: according to Bloomberg, holdings in gold ETFs have risen at their fastest pace in over three years.

Gold is great, but it’s been outshined by its little sister: silver. In fact, silver climbed above $40 per ounce for the first time since 2011 earlier this month. The macro factors pushing gold higher have also given 

, but it has another unique strength propelling it upward: Its role in making semiconductors.

And if you’re worried you missed the gold rush, palladium could be 

. It, too, is used in jewelry and industrial products alike, a one-two punch that could drive future demand.

 by the end of the year, gold may have more room to run.

“This is the start of ongoing support for the gold market: when rates are lower, we see yields drop and cash is less attractive, fueling gold demand,” wrote senior market strategist at the World Gold Council Joe Cavatoni of the Fed’s first rate cut last week. “Ultimately, while markets may react in the short-term to the Fed news, the broader story for gold is its long-term value, and the strategic role it plays in investors’ portfolios in today’s macroeconomic and geopolitical environment.”

The rise of gold and silver, however, also suggests a current of fear rippling under the wave of investor enthusiasm that has washed over markets this year. There are plenty of reasons to be trepidatious about the current bull run, and the fact that investors are still buying bullion in bulk hints that they aren’t nearly as optimistic as they seem.

Maybe gold isn’t a shining example of the market’s success. Maybe it’s the canary in the coal mine.—

Gold hits new record high once again

But if you missed out on gold, silver and palladium can pop too.

Precious metals keep shining

Mark Reeth

Bitcoin is supposed to be digital gold, but what happens when a crypto company would prefer to invest in “natural bitcoin?”

In a bizarro-world turn of events, Tether, the world’s largest stablecoin company, held talks with gold miners last week to discuss investing in the gold supply chain. 

 locked in a vault in Zurich as collateral for its stablecoin, and that this may be a move to increase the company’s exposure to gold.

It’s just the latest bit of good news for gold mining companies. Last Friday, Goldman Sachs investing chief David Kostin proclaimed that gold miners were one of the Wall Street titan’s 

 through the rest of 2025. “Our commodity strategists anticipate gold prices will rise by 14% through 2026 due to strong central bank and ETF demand. Gold mining stocks should rally alongside the underlying commodity,” Kostin wrote.

This one-two punch of great headlines helped boost major gold miners across the market today: Harmony Gold Mining rose 3.61%, Gold Fields added 3.64%, and Anglogold Ashanti rallied 4.07%.

Goldman Sachs says gold miners are top investment

Crypto company Tether is considering investing in gold mining as well.

Golden age

The Trump administration blindsided traders this morning by confirming that one-kilo and 100 oz gold bars are 

 The news shocked gold investors who had been working under the assumption that bullion would be exempt from the retaliatory tariffs that kicked in yesterday. Gold futures subsequently skyrocketed first thing this morning to yet another record high.

 In response to an inquiry from a gold refiner in Switzerland, US Customs and Border Protection ruled that gold bars 

 will be taxed at the country’s tariff rate, which is now one of the highest at 39%. The implication is that gold bars imported to the US from anywhere in the world will also be subject to each origin country’s tariff rate—though the White House has yet to clarify whether or not that will be the case.

This ruling could upend the gold trade, because the market uses physical gold to back its futures market and hedge positions. Gold bars undergird huge swathes of the financial system, particularly central banks, which keep large repositories of the precious metal in order to stabilize their economies. Switzerland in particular is a major international hub for that trade, and is the largest gold refiner in the world, and its extremely high tariff rate puts the entire gold futures market at risk.

The ruling is already having knock-on effects: Bloomberg reported that international gold shipments have been frozen around the world today.

Even before today’s announcement, the safe haven asset has had plenty of reasons to extend its 

Economic data recently revealed a weaker economy than previously thought, massive tariffs are about to shake up the global economy, the future of the Fed’s independence is currently in limbo, and geopolitical turmoil shows no signs of slowing down. All of that explains why the metal has surged 32.60% this year, on top of its roughly 27% gain last year.

“Should economic and financial conditions deteriorate, exacerbating stagflationary pressures and geoeconomic tensions, safe haven demand could significantly increase pushing gold 10% to 15% higher from here,” wrote the World Gold Council in its 

 last month. “On the flipside, widespread and sustained conflict resolution – something that appears unlikely in the current environment – would see gold give back 12% to 17% of this year’s gains.”

: “The White House intends to issue an executive order in the near future clarifying misinformation about the tariffing of gold bars and other speciality products,” an anonymous White House official told multiple outlets late this afternoon. Gold prices tumbled from their record highs on the news, though it remained up 0.06% through market close—its 26th record close for the year.—

Gold tariffs blindside investors: Report

Gold prices soared on surprise tariff news.

Gold tariff shocks markets

Your copper pots may have just gone from an indulgent purchase to a family heirloom.

US copper prices recorded their biggest one-day spike ever yesterday—jumping about 13% to a 

—after President Trump threatened a 50% tariff on copper imports.

For the past few months, copper prices have 

 as US traders hoarded copper before the anticipated tariffs hit. But still, many investors and economists had been expecting the levies to only reach 25% and be implemented later in the fall.

Another catch? While US copper prices surged yesterday…the 

“The surging demand for U.S. copper ahead of the looming tariffs has pushed domestic prices to a +25% premium over copper trading at the London Metal Exchange (LME),” Chief Technical Strategist for LPL Financial Adam Turnquist wrote in a note.

“Furthermore, LME copper inventories have been significantly depleted, raising concerns about a global supply shortage outside the U.S.”

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick added on CNBC yesterday that the copper tariff would be put in place at “the end of July, maybe August 1.”

When the tariffs are implemented, American consumers and businesses could be shelling out roughly $15,000 per metric ton, compared to the $10,000 the 

While the metal retreated somewhat today, analysts are expecting prices to remain high over the coming months.

 More expensive copper isn’t just relevant to futures market traders. While Trump has imposed a 50% tariff on aluminum and steel, the same tax on copper imports raises far bigger concerns for the economy.

For one, the US imports roughly half its copper. Chile is the largest exporter of copper into the US, followed by Canada, Peru, and Mexico. While Trump has pledged to ramp up domestic copper production, experts warn that the process could take years.

And demand for the metal is expected to explode over the next decade, given its role as a key ingredient for building data centers, electric vehicles, clean energy, and the power grid—which means the AI infrastructure buildout and 

 on the housing market, inflation prints, and prices for consumers.

 Copper miners. Specifically, Freeport-McMoRan and Southern Copper are 

 that could be winners, according to Bank of America.—

Skyrocketing copper prices could tear through the economy

Trump's latest tariff threat is wreaking havoc on the commodity market. 

Even if you don’t tend to pay close attention to commodities, you’ve almost certainly spotted them in the news these past few weeks.

That’s because there’s perhaps no asset more directly tied with conflict in the Middle East than oil, and its price has been 

 ever since Iran and Israel started exchanging missiles. In addition to upheaval on the other side of the globe, the decision by OPEC+ to maintain production rates, at the same time that demand has waned in markets like China, has pushed oil 5.90% lower this year.

Oil's not the only commodity that has had a tumultuous 2025. Trade war tensions, increasingly volatile weather patterns, and the continued buildout of AI technology have all contributed to a wild year for every commodity under the sun.

On the whole, commodity prices are expected to decrease 12% in 2025, and an additional 5% in 2026, according to 

When discussing commodities, we can’t forget about gold. The hot commodity has soared 28.31% this year so far and hit 

The safe haven investment tends to rise during instances of geopolitical instability, which is something we’ve had plenty of this year. Purchases from central banks around the globe have poured fuel on the fire, and their demand has only been accelerating in recent years.

But gold certainly isn’t the only precious metal that’s been shining in 2025.

Silver has climbed 27.31%, copper has jumped 27.03%, and palladium has roared 27.94% higher this year. Unlike gold, these metals are not primarily held as safe haven assets, and their price is heavily driven by industrial demand. All three are used for vital technologies such as semiconductors and electric vehicles—two huge areas of demand.

Don’t forget about agricultural commodities. “Markets for several commodities—for example coffee, cocoa, and natural gas—have been buffeted by supply shortfalls or demand surges linked to extreme weather,” explained the World Bank’s latest 

Commodities recap: Gold, silver, palladium, oil, and more

Commodities have had a wild run in 2025, but where do they go from here?

What's going on with commodities?

After surging nearly 44% over the past 12 months, gold prices couldn’t have further to run, right? Wrong—at least if you ask senior market strategist at the World Gold Council, Joseph Cavatoni.

Read on for his conversion with Brew Markets about the future of gold, edited for length and clarity.

What do you say to people who look at gold’s run and think, ‘I missed the rally, it’s too expensive now?’

As an organization, we don’t call the gold price. But we’re going to give you a strong case that investment in central banks will keep buying at paces that are strong.

JPMorgan’s making a case for $4,000/oz, and we’ll balance that with Citi, which is arguing a pullback of $3,000/oz.

The case remains strong for upside performance, and if you’re looking closely at the price, you can maybe pick your entry point a little better.

What is driving central banks around the world to keep buying gold?

First, they've got concerns around global inflation, even in their own homegrown economies. Second, they look at risk and uncertainty and its impact on the other assets they may be holding, which includes dollar-based assets.

And third, they need certainty around liquidity, and are making sure that when they are exercising liquidation of an asset for whatever the reason may be, they want to stabilize it using gold holdings so they could sell gold by their currency, like we saw in Turkey, two years back.

How do you see lower interest rates affecting the price of gold, when the Fed does eventually cut rates?

It'll overall lower the opportunity cost of holding assets away from gold. So it'll actually continue to support the case for investors to realize the value of holding gold as a diversifier in your portfolio.

Do you think bitcoin, aka “digital gold” will take market share away from gold as a safe-haven asset long term?

Bitcoin, first and foremost, is an interesting asset. What I’d say is that in terms of the characteristics of returns, diversification benefits, liquidity and overall portfolio impact is that it’s akin to a risk asset. It looks an awful lot like a tech stock.

During drawdowns, bitcoin will draw down like risk assets will, while gold actually holds its value.—