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Photo Illustration: Dianna "Mick" McDougall; Sources: Getty Images

Commodities

Lucy Brewster

brewmarkets.com

The Trump administration blindsided traders this morning by confirming that one-kilo and 100 oz gold bars are 

 The news shocked gold investors who had been working under the assumption that bullion would be exempt from the retaliatory tariffs that kicked in yesterday. Gold futures subsequently skyrocketed first thing this morning to yet another record high.

 In response to an inquiry from a gold refiner in Switzerland, US Customs and Border Protection ruled that gold bars 

 will be taxed at the country’s tariff rate, which is now one of the highest at 39%. The implication is that gold bars imported to the US from anywhere in the world will also be subject to each origin country’s tariff rate—though the White House has yet to clarify whether or not that will be the case.

This ruling could upend the gold trade, because the market uses physical gold to back its futures market and hedge positions. Gold bars undergird huge swathes of the financial system, particularly central banks, which keep large repositories of the precious metal in order to stabilize their economies. Switzerland in particular is a major international hub for that trade, and is the largest gold refiner in the world, and its extremely high tariff rate puts the entire gold futures market at risk.

The ruling is already having knock-on effects: Bloomberg reported that international gold shipments have been frozen around the world today.

Even before today’s announcement, the safe haven asset has had plenty of reasons to extend its 

Economic data recently revealed a weaker economy than previously thought, massive tariffs are about to shake up the global economy, the future of the Fed’s independence is currently in limbo, and geopolitical turmoil shows no signs of slowing down. All of that explains why the metal has surged 32.60% this year, on top of its roughly 27% gain last year.

“Should economic and financial conditions deteriorate, exacerbating stagflationary pressures and geoeconomic tensions, safe haven demand could significantly increase pushing gold 10% to 15% higher from here,” wrote the World Gold Council in its 

 last month. “On the flipside, widespread and sustained conflict resolution – something that appears unlikely in the current environment – would see gold give back 12% to 17% of this year’s gains.”

: “The White House intends to issue an executive order in the near future clarifying misinformation about the tariffing of gold bars and other speciality products,” an anonymous White House official told multiple outlets late this afternoon. Gold prices tumbled from their record highs on the news, though it remained up 0.06% through market close—its 26th record close for the year.—

Gold tariffs blindside investors: Report

Gold prices soared on surprise tariff news.

Gold tariff shocks markets

Your copper pots may have just gone from an indulgent purchase to a family heirloom.

US copper prices recorded their biggest one-day spike ever yesterday—jumping about 13% to a 

—after President Trump threatened a 50% tariff on copper imports.

For the past few months, copper prices have 

 as US traders hoarded copper before the anticipated tariffs hit. But still, many investors and economists had been expecting the levies to only reach 25% and be implemented later in the fall.

Another catch? While US copper prices surged yesterday…the 

“The surging demand for U.S. copper ahead of the looming tariffs has pushed domestic prices to a +25% premium over copper trading at the London Metal Exchange (LME),” Chief Technical Strategist for LPL Financial Adam Turnquist wrote in a note.

“Furthermore, LME copper inventories have been significantly depleted, raising concerns about a global supply shortage outside the U.S.”

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick added on CNBC yesterday that the copper tariff would be put in place at “the end of July, maybe August 1.”

When the tariffs are implemented, American consumers and businesses could be shelling out roughly $15,000 per metric ton, compared to the $10,000 the 

While the metal retreated somewhat today, analysts are expecting prices to remain high over the coming months.

 More expensive copper isn’t just relevant to futures market traders. While Trump has imposed a 50% tariff on aluminum and steel, the same tax on copper imports raises far bigger concerns for the economy.

For one, the US imports roughly half its copper. Chile is the largest exporter of copper into the US, followed by Canada, Peru, and Mexico. While Trump has pledged to ramp up domestic copper production, experts warn that the process could take years.

And demand for the metal is expected to explode over the next decade, given its role as a key ingredient for building data centers, electric vehicles, clean energy, and the power grid—which means the AI infrastructure buildout and 

 on the housing market, inflation prints, and prices for consumers.

 Copper miners. Specifically, Freeport-McMoRan and Southern Copper are 

 that could be winners, according to Bank of America.—

Skyrocketing copper prices could tear through the economy

Trump's latest tariff threat is wreaking havoc on the commodity market. 

Even if you don’t tend to pay close attention to commodities, you’ve almost certainly spotted them in the news these past few weeks.

That’s because there’s perhaps no asset more directly tied with conflict in the Middle East than oil, and its price has been 

 ever since Iran and Israel started exchanging missiles. In addition to upheaval on the other side of the globe, the decision by OPEC+ to maintain production rates, at the same time that demand has waned in markets like China, has pushed oil 5.90% lower this year.

Oil's not the only commodity that has had a tumultuous 2025. Trade war tensions, increasingly volatile weather patterns, and the continued buildout of AI technology have all contributed to a wild year for every commodity under the sun.

On the whole, commodity prices are expected to decrease 12% in 2025, and an additional 5% in 2026, according to 

When discussing commodities, we can’t forget about gold. The hot commodity has soared 28.31% this year so far and hit 

The safe haven investment tends to rise during instances of geopolitical instability, which is something we’ve had plenty of this year. Purchases from central banks around the globe have poured fuel on the fire, and their demand has only been accelerating in recent years.

But gold certainly isn’t the only precious metal that’s been shining in 2025.

Silver has climbed 27.31%, copper has jumped 27.03%, and palladium has roared 27.94% higher this year. Unlike gold, these metals are not primarily held as safe haven assets, and their price is heavily driven by industrial demand. All three are used for vital technologies such as semiconductors and electric vehicles—two huge areas of demand.

Don’t forget about agricultural commodities. “Markets for several commodities—for example coffee, cocoa, and natural gas—have been buffeted by supply shortfalls or demand surges linked to extreme weather,” explained the World Bank’s latest 

Commodities recap: Gold, silver, palladium, oil, and more

Commodities have had a wild run in 2025, but where do they go from here?

What's going on with commodities?

After surging nearly 44% over the past 12 months, gold prices couldn’t have further to run, right? Wrong—at least if you ask senior market strategist at the World Gold Council, Joseph Cavatoni.

Read on for his conversion with Brew Markets about the future of gold, edited for length and clarity.

What do you say to people who look at gold’s run and think, ‘I missed the rally, it’s too expensive now?’

As an organization, we don’t call the gold price. But we’re going to give you a strong case that investment in central banks will keep buying at paces that are strong.

JPMorgan’s making a case for $4,000/oz, and we’ll balance that with Citi, which is arguing a pullback of $3,000/oz.

The case remains strong for upside performance, and if you’re looking closely at the price, you can maybe pick your entry point a little better.

What is driving central banks around the world to keep buying gold?

First, they've got concerns around global inflation, even in their own homegrown economies. Second, they look at risk and uncertainty and its impact on the other assets they may be holding, which includes dollar-based assets.

And third, they need certainty around liquidity, and are making sure that when they are exercising liquidation of an asset for whatever the reason may be, they want to stabilize it using gold holdings so they could sell gold by their currency, like we saw in Turkey, two years back.

How do you see lower interest rates affecting the price of gold, when the Fed does eventually cut rates?

It'll overall lower the opportunity cost of holding assets away from gold. So it'll actually continue to support the case for investors to realize the value of holding gold as a diversifier in your portfolio.

Do you think bitcoin, aka “digital gold” will take market share away from gold as a safe-haven asset long term?

Bitcoin, first and foremost, is an interesting asset. What I’d say is that in terms of the characteristics of returns, diversification benefits, liquidity and overall portfolio impact is that it’s akin to a risk asset. It looks an awful lot like a tech stock.

During drawdowns, bitcoin will draw down like risk assets will, while gold actually holds its value.—

Gold price prediction for the rest of 2025

Gold has soared this year, but one market pro thinks the best is yet to come.

Where does gold go from here?

The Strait of Hormuz is the most important waterway you’ve never heard of—until today.

After the US bombed three key nuclear sites in Iran on Saturday night, the world has been holding its breath for the geopolitical and economic fallout. But at least so far, oil has had a relatively muted response to the military escalation.

Crude rose to its highest price since January last night, before retreating this morning after President Trump 

 this morning that “everyone” should keep oil prices down.

Oil fell even further in the afternoon after Iran launched 

 against a US airbase in Qatar—which may seem odd considering that an escalation in hostilities should push crude prices higher, but traders were relieved to see that Iran didn’t target any energy facilities in the region. Crude oil ended the day down 7.12%.

But a high-stakes game of chicken over the 

 that connects the Persian Gulf and Arabian sea could completely change the dynamic for energy prices in the coming weeks.

How the Strait of Hormuz could impact oil prices

Analysts agree that among the most catastrophic risks of the growing conflict is that Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway through which about 

 are shipped every single day. Roughly 20% of all the world’s energy consumption flowed through the strait last year, according to the Energy Information Administration.

 of closing the waterway in retaliation to US attacks, but final approval is still needed from the top of Iran’s government. If the strait is blockaded or Iran plants mines in the waterway—even temporarily—oil prices could skyrocket to over $100 per barrel, according to analysts.

Even if the strait isn’t officially shuttered, shipping companies are already 

 because of security risks, which could spike the price of containers shipped overseas.

: However, closing the strait would be destructive for Iran’s economy, too, and many analysts believe it would be a last-ditch decision rather than an immediate retaliation to this weekend’s strikes. Today’s limited response from Iran, which warned Qatar of its missile attack ahead of time and caused no American casualties, also suggests de-escalation ahead.

“While the events in the Middle East remain fluid, we think that the economic incentives, including for the US and China, to try to prevent a sustained and very large disruption of the Strait of Hormuz would be strong,” concluded Goldman Sachs co-head of global commodities research Daan Struyven.—

The Strait of Hormuz: All eyes on the key oil pipeline

Iran has threatened to close the pivotal waterway, which could cause oil prices to spike.

The small waterway with big implications

 says that gold is “no longer for lunatic survivalists,” you know it’s a sign 

2025 has been dubbed a golden era for gold for a reason: The commodity has gained 29% year to date, far outpacing the S&P 500’s increase of about 3% over the same period. In fact, gold prices have set a 

 high a staggering 24 times in 2025 as investors rushed into the safe-haven asset when Liberation Day tariffs roiled the stock market.

But now, as everyone and their mom takes a piece of the golden pie, some investors are moving to less expensive corners of the commodity market and helping other precious metals eat into gold’s lead.

The iShares Silver Trust, an exchange-traded fund backed by the commodity itself, officially outperformed its gold counterpart earlier this week, Barron’s reported. Unlike gold, silver isn’t just a hedge for traders: The commodity is a key ingredient in building tech such as electric vehicles and solar panels. As of now, silver has gained 24% this year, slightly less than gold’s gain.

Platinum, too, has had a stellar run this year, gaining 42%. Besides investors diversifying their precious metal portfolio beyond gold, platinum has also gotten a boon from growing demand for platinum jewelry in China, which is its biggest market. According to the Platinum Guild International, 

, reaching its highest level since February 2021 yesterday.

While other metals may be mounting a comeback, the fundamentals are intact for gold to keep gaining, despite the fact that it’s surpassed many analyst price targets.

After all, the factors that have been driving gold’s record run—trade war tensions, the risk of inflation rekindling, central banks 

Many analyst price targets leave room for the metal to keep shining. For example, 

gold could reach $3,675 per ounce by the end of 2025—about 8% higher than it trades today—and forecasts the commodity could even hit $4,000 per ounce by Q2 2026.

Maybe the bond king is on to something after all.—

Gold has soared, but silver is gaining

Platinum and palladium are also rising as investors look for cheap alternatives to gold.

Golden hour is over

Gold may still be glittering, but another commodity has been left in the dust this year: oil.

Crude oil has fallen 14% in 2025. In fact, oil prices hit their 

 in April, while gas prices dropped to their 

 US tariffs could trigger an economic slowdown stoked concern earlier this year that demand for oil was shrinking. At the same time, President Trump has vowed to drill more than ever while OPEC+ is increasing output, both of which would cause an increase in supply.

 by another 411,000 barrels per day in July during its meeting this week, on the heels of increasing its output in June and May. That announcement pushed prices down 0.91% today.

 for the commodity: In a survey compiled by the Wall Street Journal including price targets from Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan, banks cut their Brent crude oil forecasts to an average of $68.23 a barrel for 2025, down from an average forecast of $72.13 per barrel in March.

 can be a boon to consumers, lower oil prices can hurt the economy, and devastate oil-producing nations. But one group of stocks that benefits from lower prices is 

 such as Marathon Petroleum and Valero Energy.

There’s a lot more going on in the world of energy than slipping oil prices.

 over a $1 trillion oil field in Guyana this week. Chevron, through its attempted acquisition of Hess, would get access to 30% of the lucrative Stabroek Oil field. But ExxonMobil, which owns 45% of the field and operates it, along with Chinese oil firm CNOOC, which owns 25% of the stake, are trying to block the acquisition using 

A hearing with the International Chamber of Commerce begins this week to decide whether or not Chevron gets a slice of the pie.

The battle is high stakes: For Chevron, a win would be a lifeline, given shares are down 13.34% over the past 12 months and the oil company’s reserves fell to their lowest level in a decade last year.

 that’s not the only corporate drama rocking the world of oil. Last week, activist investor Elliott Investment Management 

 on the board of oil refiner Phillips 66, in an escalation of their boardroom fight.

The energy industry sure is energetic this year.

Oil barrel spilling out negative dollar sign