Not all that glitters

President Trump’s Iran policy has given investors whiplash this week. First, he said a peace deal was “two or three days” away, then launched strikes, then threatened to hit the country “VERY HARD” and seize its most critical oil-export hub—before putting the operation on hold hours later.

That kind of unpredictability would normally send investors rushing into safe-haven assets like gold. But lately, gold hasn’t been behaving like one. The precious metal is down 3.11% this year, and just yesterday, gold futures entered a bear market for the first time since 2022, after falling more than 20% from their March peak. That’s the metal’s fastest slide into bear-market territory since the 2008 financial crisis.

Part of the problem is that gold isn’t always the reliable geopolitical hedge investors think it is. Historically, its performance during conflict is far less consistent than many investors assume. At the same time, hotter-than-expected inflation has investors expecting higher rates for longer, making yield-bearing assets like Treasuries more attractive.

Looking ahead, EverBank’s Chris Gaffney expects gold to remain under pressure until the interest-rate outlook becomes clearer. But for investors seeking protection against major market shocks, he says the recent selloff may still offer a buying opportunity.

Tin is in

Gold may be struggling to live up to its safe-haven reputation, but there’s another metal that’s having a much better year.

Average tin prices have doubled since 2003 to about $49,000 per tonne, driven by demand for solder, the tin-first alloy used to connect components on circuit boards in AI servers, semiconductors, and other computing equipment. Supply constraints have amplified the rally, with nearly three-quarters of global production concentrated in just three countries.

Investors are piling in: Tin options volumes more than doubled year over year in the first four months of 2026, while trading activity in Shanghai has surged. The metal has even joined silver and copper as one of the market’s favorite “internet metals,” as traders bet that AI-driven demand for tin is only getting started.

Surely we’re on the precipice of a tin ETF and a r/TinBullion subreddit.—SY