Gold is running circles around the stock market

Bad vibes are a great tailwind for gold.

And the vibes have undeniably been better: Inflation is sticky, geopolitical upheaval shows no signs of stopping, and the US debt pile just keeps growing. Those factors have driven gold’s record rally this year, and boosted other safe haven investments along with it.

Now, there’s a new catalyst that pushed the commodity above $4,000 per oz for the first time ever: The protracted US government shutdown.

All that unsavory news is coming together to revive the “debasement trade”, which is essentially when investors move their money into safe haven assets to protect against the decline of a fiat currency (in this case, the dollar).

That’s why the dollar’s lackluster year has kept gold glittering. The US dollar index is down more than 9% in 2025, its worst year since 1973. Gold, on the other hand, has soared 53.62% this year.

The debasement trade isn’t just boosting gold, either. Bitcoin has popped 9.84% over the past month, partially for the same reason: As the dollar fades, traders are looking for alternatives completely severed from the currency. Though, yes, there’s an obvious irony that one of the most volatile assets of all time is being used as a “safe haven.”

On the flip side, it’s not exactly great news that the dollar is in the dumps. A weaker dollar not only means that traders are betting against the US economy, but it also devalues fixed income assets and can reduce the buying power of American consumers over the long term.

Can gold keep climbing?

Gold has outpaced the S&P 500, bitcoin, and even Nvidia over the past 12 months, and the pros think the good times won’t end anytime soon: Goldman Sachs just upgraded its December 2026 price target to $4,900 per ounce, up from its previous $4,300 per ounce.

On top of that, famed investor and Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio argued that putting 15% of your entire portfolio in gold makes sense, noting that today’s economic environment is similar to the 1970s.

“Gold is the only asset that somebody can hold and you don’t have to depend on somebody else to pay you money for,” Dalio said at the Greenwich Economic Forum today. That’s simple enough logic for us.—LB