OpenAI hits pause

Fresh off SpaceX’s blockbuster IPO, Wall Street may have to wait a little longer for the arrival of the next AI heavyweight: OpenAI is reportedly delaying its public debut until next year, despite confidentially filing earlier this month. The company said, “It may be a while,” before going public because there are “things we want to do that are likely easier as a private company.”

The news is weighing on some of its biggest partners: Oracle, which has staked much of its AI infrastructure strategy on a roughly $300 billion cloud deal with the company, fell 2.48%, while CoreWeave, which has a separate agreement worth about $22 billion, slipped 2.21%. Meanwhile, SoftBank, which owned roughly 13% of OpenAI as of February, lost 5.53%.

More to prove

For OpenAI, staying private may actually be the safer bet. CEO Sam Altman has repeatedly floated the idea of a $1 trillion valuation when it IPOs, but the company still has work to do before convincing public investors.

For starters, OpenAI is still trying to prove its business can scale efficiently. The company has committed roughly $1.4 trillion to AI infrastructure, but after missing multiple monthly revenue targets this year, investors will want evidence that all that spending can ultimately translate into sustainable free cash flow.

The timing doesn’t help, either, as investor appetite for AI has become far less forgiving. Just look at SpaceX: After soaring roughly 60% above its IPO price and briefly becoming one of the world’s most valuable companies, the stock has surrendered nearly all of those gains as enthusiasm cooled following its debut.

A crowded race

OpenAI isn’t just racing the IPO clock—it also has to fend off increasingly formidable rivals.

Anthropic has already pulled ahead on several key metrics. Its latest Series H funding round valued the company at roughly $965 billion, above OpenAI’s $852 billion valuation from March. The startup also reported a $47 billion annualized revenue run rate in May, compared with roughly $25 billion for OpenAI earlier this year.

At the same time, companies are increasingly turning to cheaper alternatives like DeepSeek and other open-source models as AI bills pile up, adding yet another challenge for OpenAI, which will need to find ways to lower costs to stay competitive.

Whether OpenAI made the right decision remains to be seen. Buying time has its benefits, but it isn’t free. The first AI company to crack the public markets will likely write Wall Street’s playbook for the sector. If that company is Anthropic, OpenAI may find itself trying to beat a benchmark it never got to define.—SY