Nike trips up

Redditors have a long tradition of staking their accounts on very confident investment predictions. Yesterday, another brave soul stepped up on r/WallStreetBets: “I will delete my account if Nike stock closes below $40 today. News flash: won’t happen.”

News flash: It did. Nike closed at $39.09, its lowest level in 12 years and roughly 78% below its record high in 2021. “It is 4pm, OP has now been summarily executed permbanned, thanks for playing,” a forum moderator wrote.

Nike keeps stumbling

Nike shares are down 37.11% this year as investors lose patience with CEO Elliott Hill’s turnaround plan.

The latest curveball came yesterday, when David Denton officially took over as CFO. Denton has plenty of experience running the finances of big companies, but his recent resume includes Pfizer and CVS Health—not exactly sneakerheads. Nike says he’ll help sharpen execution and capital allocation.

Denton has his work cut out for him. Nike’s recent quarters have been weak, and some of its biggest brands remain under pressure. Management expects sportswear and Jordan streetwear—which together account for roughly half of the company’s revenue—to stay negative this fiscal year, with improvement only expected in the second half.

Then there’s China, Nike’s third-largest market, which accounted for 12.6% of revenue in fiscal 2026—down from 19% in 2020. Nike has lost market share there every year since 2020 as domestic rivals like Anta and Li-Ning gained ground, with Nike’s share of China’s sportswear market falling from 27% in 2020 to just 16% in 2025—and there’s no sign of the company’s decline stopping anytime soon.

Room to run

Some analysts think Nike’s ugly numbers are masking early progress.

Jefferies has pointed to improving momentum in Nike’s performance categories, while weakness in sportswear and Jordan is at least beginning to stabilize. Bernstein is similarly optimistic: While Wall Street expects Nike’s China margins to remain flat next year, Bernstein sees them climbing two percentage points to 24%, helped by Nike cutting back on discounting and taking more control of online sales. Bernstein still rates Nike at Outperform with a $68 price target, though that’s down from $72.

Nike doesn’t need everything to suddenly start working: With shares sitting at a 12-year low, investors just need evidence that the bleeding is slowing. And for whatever it’s worth, the stock rose 2.49% today to bring it back above $40—but unfortunately for one Reddit user, it was too little, too late.—SY