ASML’s waitlist has a waitlist

Apparently, the hottest reservation in tech isn’t a table at Carbone. It’s a chipmaking machine you might not get until 2030.

Reporting third-quarter earnings today, ASML raised its 2026 sales outlook for the third time this year, now expecting $49.3 billion to $50.4 billion (€44 billion to €45 billion) in full-year net sales. But its most compelling number came much further on in the calendar: Customers are already asking to place orders for 2029 and even 2030, and ASML says the production capacity it currently plans through 2028 still won’t be enough to meet demand.

That’s a big commitment for Europe’s largest company by market value. ASML holds a near-monopoly on lithography machines needed to manufacture the world’s most advanced chips—and chipmakers booking them four years out are betting billions that AI will justify new factories well into the next decade.

Scarcity is good business

Those bets are already showing up across the industry. TSMC is expanding production with $52 billion to $56 billion earmarked for capital expenditures this year, while memory makers Micron and SK Hynix are pouring money into the high-end memory needed for AI systems. Elon Musk’s planned Terafab semiconductor project could eventually add another major buyer.

The problem for buyers is that ASML may not be able to make the machines fast enough.

But for ASML, it’s the kind of shortage companies dream about. BofA estimates that raising average selling prices by 5%, while keeping cost increases lower, could boost earnings per share by roughly 10%.

Selling shovels during a gold rush is nice. Selling the only shovel with a four-year waitlist is nicer.

Bullish, but for whom?

But what’s good for ASML isn’t automatically comfortable further down the supply chain.

More expensive machines raise costs for chipmakers already spending billions to expand factories. Because ASML sits near the top of the chain, its backlog tells us how much capacity chipmakers expect to need—not how many chips Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Google will ultimately buy. While the waitlist says the industry is still betting heavily on AI demand, it doesn’t guarantee that those bets will generate attractive returns.

When TSMC reports tomorrow, investors will get a look at the next link in the chain. While chipmakers are willing to spend years ahead, someone has to make that spending pay off. TSMC’s results will indicate if bottom-line growth is truly keeping pace.—HC