Is SpaceX flying too close to the sun?

If you’re a SpaceX investor, this week has been your Super Bowl, Christmas, and birthday all in one.

Since a strong debut on Friday, SpaceX hasn’t stopped climbing: Shares are up 34.58% since they first hit the public market. The company’s roughly $3 trillion valuation has put it on track to become the world’s fourth-largest, surpassing Amazon and Microsoft—on just its third day of trading.

Not wasting time, SpaceX is using that momentum to make moves: Today, the company announced it agreed to buy Cursor, a “vibe coding” startup, for a staggering $60 billion. The acquisition will help xAI (which is part of SpaceX) compete with AI coding tools from rivals like OpenAI and Anthropic (Musk has acknowledged xAI lags behind in coding).

Musk then hit the thrusters by announcing that the company could bring in about $1 trillion in revenue by 2030, thanks to projected Starlink and AI sales.

The bulls and bears are on different planets

At least for now, it looks like SpaceX is defying skeptics: The company hasn’t crashed and burned. It hasn’t drained capital from other tech names on a scale that’s shaken the market. And its debut is seen as a good omen for other IPO hopefuls. But it’s still the early innings.

“Overall, SpaceX going public is an important watershed moment for the broader tech sector in our view as this AI Revolution and data takes this next step forward,” wrote Wedbush analyst Dan Ives in a note today.

🐂 Bulls see SpaceX as the dominant player in the space economy: SpaceX does the vast majority of orbital launches with no close competitor, Starlink has millions of subscribers, and the US government has major contracts locked in.

The IPO also gives SpaceX capital for its rather lofty bets, which in turn fuels investor excitement. According to Ives, “The proceeds of the IPO are expected for multiple business purposes including the expansion of its AI computing resources and SpaceX’s Starlink satellite network while fueling investments for technologies that have yet to be built including solar-powered data centers in space.”

🐻 Other analysts are more skeptical, focusing more on grounding actual growth metrics than vibes. CFRA, for example, gave the stock a Sell rating, citing the company’s “extremely ambitious growth strategy.”

Morningstar was even more direct. “We think the shares are significantly overvalued given the wide range of likely financial outcomes,” explained analyst Nicolas Owens in a note on Friday. “The firm’s current market value is contingent upon paving the way for novel revenue streams, such as orbital computing, which we believe are possible given the firm’s unique advantages, but their viability, timelines, and financial outcomes remain highly uncertain,” he added.

What to watch: the lockup period ending, when long-term SpaceX shareholders are finally able to sell. Instead of a typical 180-day lockup period, SpaceX is using staggered release dates, and the first unlock hits on August 21, when the amount of available shares will double. Right now, only 4.2% of SpaceX shares are available to trade, so a flood of insider selling will reveal how durable this momentum really is.—LB