20 economies, 20 problems (and counting)

Amid trade wars, real wars, and the threat of global inflation resurging, there’s never been a more high-stakes (and awkward) time for the world’s financial leaders to get together for a chat.

Today, the G20 finance summit kicks off in Asheville, North Carolina, and the world’s top suits—including for the first time CEOs like JPMorgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon and David Solomon of Goldman Sachs—are ready to talk shop in what’s expected to be a contentious meeting. It could be especially tough for Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who will be busy convincing everyone that the US’s interventionist approach—from boosting the yen to kicking off a new trade war with Canada—is sound financial leadership.

G stands for growth

Bessent’s solution is growth, growth, and more growth. What that practically means, according to Bessent, is deregulation, addressing trade imbalances, and debt restructuring for developing nations.

“The only way for us to get out of this is to grow our way out of it,” Bessent told reporters today.

Meanwhile, investors will be watching a slew of high-stakes policy discussions closely:

• Inflation: Headline inflation is projected to reach 4% across the G20 economies this year. How the leaders think the US should navigate the conflict with Iran, along with combating spiking oil prices, will be hotly debated topics.
• Speaking of Iran: Bessent thanked the EU for signaling support for “Operation Economic Outcast”—the US’s latest plan to slap steep sanctions on Iran. Investors will be watching for whether or not other countries signal that they’re on board too.
• AI: In a two-page letter published today to G20 bankers and finance ministers, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warned that the risk of AI cyberattacks poses a huge threat to the entire financial system.
• Trade: Bessent will try to take attention away from the economic costs of President Trump’s trade wars, and instead present trade policy as a move for the greater good. Bessent will also reportedly ask the members to review their trade terms with China.

Conversations will be even more awkward now that the US has eliminated a slew of smaller working groups focused on issues like energy and the environment. How much that will rustle the feathers of others remains to be seen.

“Washington’s tighter focus may clash with other members who still want to discuss debt relief for developing countries, climate finance and inequality,” explained Deutsche Bank analyst Helen Belopolsky in a note earlier this month. “With a US leadership openly skeptical of the G20’s broader mission, to watch will be how much substantive coordination is feasible.”

Sort of like your college sorority trying to decide on a T-shirt color for this year’s rush season, sometimes even the smallest decisions can become highly contentious.—LB