Betting on Musk

Elon Musk has never been short on ambition. He’s sold flamethrowers, put brain chips in humans, and spent years talking about colonizing Mars. Depending on who you ask, that either makes him a visionary, delusional, or just very committed to the bit. But with Tesla and SpaceX under his belt, investors have learned not to dismiss the big promises.

Yesterday, Tesla enjoyed its strongest day of trading since July, becoming the best-performing stock in the S&P 500, as excitement built ahead of Thursday’s Cybercab event in Austin. Robotaxis matter to shareholders because they’re central to the case for valuing Tesla as an AI and autonomy company rather than just an automaker. Morgan Stanley, for example, says Tesla’s autonomous-driving business could be worth roughly $1 trillion.

So far, though, the rollout hasn’t matched Musk’s ambitions. Last year, he said Tesla robotaxis could be available to half the US population by the end of 2025. Today, estimates put Tesla’s robotaxi fleet at only about 100 vehicles across six cities. Rival Waymo, meanwhile, has roughly 4,000 vehicles and continues to expand into new US markets. Tesla fell 3.22% today.

SpaceX wants to build it all

Musk’s ambition is also showing up at SpaceX, where he is pushing the company’s build-it-yourself philosophy.

In a post on X, Musk confirmed that SpaceX plans to make its own gas-turbine parts at a new foundry in Texas. Those turbines help generate electricity for things like AI data centers, and Musk says making the parts in-house could get new power online up to 18 months faster.

That announcement hurt suppliers like Howmet Aerospace, one of the few companies capable of producing those specialized turbine parts at scale, as investors worried SpaceX could eventually become a competitor.

But some analysts see the move as evidence of tight supply rather than an immediate threat to incumbents. GE Vernova, one of the world’s largest gas-turbine makers, has said much of its turbine capacity is already sold through 2030, while Howmet has customer agreements extending through the end of the decade. At the same time, Jefferies estimates it could take SpaceX roughly four years to establish meaningful in-house production.

With that in mind, investors probably shouldn’t panic-sell turbine suppliers just yet—nor should they smash the “buy” button on SpaceX. Musk certainly has no shortage of big ideas, but it may be worth waiting for something a little more concrete than a post on X before getting carried away.—SY