Betting is the new investing

We all knew the world’s biggest prediction market must be making some serious money, but we didn’t know the full extent of its cash haul—until now.

Today, CNBC reported that Polymarket’s annualized revenue has surpassed $1 billion just weeks after the company opened up the waitlist for its US exchange. Previously, Polymarket barred US users after settling with regulators in 2022 (although many Americans continued to trade through loopholes.)

Betting it all this summer

Polymarket’s user base has exploded this summer, partially due to betting on the World Cup. Volume has gone from roughly $50 million per day to more than $200 million per day between mid-May and June 20, according to CNBC.

But Kalshi, its biggest competitor, is still the predominant betting site in the US, controlling over 90% of the US prediction market with an annualized revenue topping $1.5 billion. Then again, there’s room for everyone: Combined global trading volume, including Polymarket and Kalshi, has surged from about $4.5 billion in September 2025 to $24 billion in April 2026.

Big bets, bigger losses

Once considered fringe (and illegal) in the US, prediction markets are now being embraced by Wall Street, Silicon Valley, the media, and millions of users across the world.

But while these companies are raking it in, everyday users are often left holding the bag: According to the Wall Street Journal, 67% of Polymarket’s profits go to just the top 0.1% of accounts, and for every person on Kalshi who makes money, there are roughly 2.9 who lose.

Then there’s the slew of insider trading scandals undermining users’ faith in these sites. Oh, and all those winners on social media claiming to be flush with cash? Many are faking it, and being paid by Polymarket to do so. It’s no wonder why lawmakers are looking to open a probe into Polymarket’s deceptive advertising.

Now that these sites are financial institutions in and of themselves, people are beginning to question what they really are. Are prediction markets investing, forecasting, or just straight-up gambling?

By the time lawmakers, regulators, and society at large decide, the genie may be out of the bottle for good.—LB