Halftime check-in

We’re halfway there, and as a wise man from New Jersey once said, we’re livin’ on a prayer.

Here at the midpoint of the year, it’s worth taking a look back at the biggest winners and losers of 2026 thus far—and looking ahead at what the rest of the year may bring.

Let’s start with the good news: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq each clinched their best first half of a year since 2024, but the true winners were the Dow, which climbed 8.85% in the last six months for its best start to a year since 2021, and the Russell 2000, which soared 21.1%, its best first half since 1991.

The Russell 2000, which focuses on small-cap stocks, rose as the AI trade broadened from the Mag 7 into smaller chipmakers and semiconductor equipment manufacturers like Aehr Test Systems (up 472% YTD) and Ichor Holdings (up 430% YTD). Meanwhile, the Dow rallied as investors rotated out of big tech and into the sort of safer, more conservative stock picks the Dow specializes in.

The best and the worst

Don’t let the market’s recent pivot away from tech fool you, however: The AI trade still reigns supreme, even if the names at the top of the leaderboard have changed over the years.

While the Mag 7 was once dominant, the biggest stocks on the block have fallen on hard times. Although Alphabet, Apple, and Nvidia pulled their weight, the group has been dragged lower by Microsoft (down 22.87% YTD) and Meta Platforms (down 14.66%).

Instead, the new powerhouses are memory chip makers and data storage stocks, as you can see from the best-performing S&P 500 stocks of the year thus far:

• Sandisk: up 764%
• Micron Technology: up 301%
• Western Digital: up 278%
• Intel: up 257%
• Seagate Technology: up 252%

On the other hand, most of the biggest losers on the S&P 500 hail from the tech sector as well, tumbling lower as investors worry about their businesses being disrupted by AI:

• Intuit: down 60%
• CoStar Group: down 56%
• Boston Scientific: down 54%
• Accenture: down 54%
• Cognizant: down 53%

What lies ahead

So, what does the second half of the year hold in store for markets?

Goldman Sachs says the future is bright, at least in the near term. “A solid macro backdrop and the ongoing AI investment boom should lead to another quarter of strong earnings results despite an elevated hurdle set by analyst estimates,” chief US equity strategist Ben Snider recently wrote.

Analysts at JPMorgan looked further ahead, noting in their mid-year outlook report that strong earnings growth coupled with forthcoming peace in the Middle East is enough for them to believe the S&P 500 can climb to 7,800 by year end. “However, it’s important to keep in mind that the path upwards will be non-linear, as the market will need to clear various hurdles. Strong back-to-back earnings have reset the bar higher heading into the 2Q season, making it more difficult for companies to significantly surprise to the upside on both earnings and capex,” they wrote.—MR