Apple finally folds

Apple is asking customers a very expensive question: Would you pay over $2,000 for an iPhone?

Apple made its case today at the “Surprise and Shine” keynote in Cupertino, the company’s first major product event under new CEO John Ternus.

Alongside the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max, new Apple Watches, AirPods, and a major Siri upgrade, the star of the show was Apple’s first foldable phone: the iPhone Duo. It starts at $1,999, which is lower than expected, and will be available Oct. 23.

Ternus pitched the Duo as a more polished take on foldables, saying some existing models feel like “two phones awkwardly stuck together.” Closed, the Duo has a 5.4-inch screen about the size of a passport. Open it up, and you get a 7.6-inch display, the largest ever on an iPhone.

Shares fell 0.28% today.

Late to the fold

A foldable iPhone isn’t exactly groundbreaking. Samsung has been selling a foldable phone since 2019 and currently controls roughly 40% of the global foldable market, while Huawei owns 30%.

But despite years on the market, foldables have never really escaped tech-nerd territory. They’re expensive, bulky, and feel a little unnecessary. For most people, opening up a thicker phone just to scroll TikTok on a bigger screen hasn’t been enough to justify the trade-offs.

That explains why foldables are expected to make up just 2.2% of global smartphone shipments this year. But because they sell at such a premium, IDC expects them to account for nearly 7% of industry revenue.

That could be where Apple comes in. Apple didn’t invent smartphones, smartwatches, or wireless earbuds, but it has a knack for taking existing products mainstream. Its foldable has reportedly been nearly a decade in development, giving the company plenty of time to learn from rivals’ mistakes.

Analysts think the strategy could work again, projecting that Apple could capture roughly 40% of foldable shipments by the end of 2027, according to Counterpoint.

A sticky consumer

A $2,000 phone isn’t cheap, but analysts don’t think the hefty price tag will scare buyers away. JPMorgan Chase notes that average iPhone prices have risen roughly 50% since 2015, while unit sales still grew about 10% during that time, suggesting that Apple customers keep buying even as prices climb. Citi expects about 5 million in foldable sales in the second half of this year, and another 2.3 million in the first quarter of 2027.

Worst case, Apple still has a few dependable buyers: tech executives who need the newest gadget, finance bros who consider four screens a personality, and MrBeast, who can probably clear out the first 1,000 for a giveaway.—SY