A cosmic misfire

Jeff Bezos’s second-favorite child, Blue Origin, had an important job this weekend: Carry AST SpaceMobile’s BlueBird 7 satellite into space. The launch looked successful at first glance, but the rocket’s upper stage malfunctioned, resulting in the satellite being deployed too low in orbit.

AST stock fell faster than that satellite, which is likely incinerating in the atmosphere at this very moment: Shares plunged 5.3% today, as investors questioned whether the satellite company can really make it in the uber-competitive space race against SpaceX’s Starlink and Amazon’s Leo.

The silver lining: While the stellar misfire is certainly not a great look for either AST or Blue Origin, which is privately owned, the financial damage is limited, since the satellite was insured. Despite today’s decline, AST has still soared 246.3% over the past 12 months.

Shoot for the stars, and if you miss, shareholders will punish you

When kids play astronaut, they (probably) aren’t dreaming of building cellphone towers in space—but that’s what the major space players are focused on right now.

The goal is to create a space-based cellular network that would connect directly to cell phones, which would address coverage gaps in rural regions and developing markets. It’s a hugely lucrative market, given global telecom is a nearly trillion dollar industry.

AST’s goal is to launch 45 satellites by the end of 2026, and eventually over 90 to achieve worldwide coverage. That’s why every single launch is important to investors, even when the actual financial loss isn’t that significant.

Zoom out: AST is still way behind Musk’s Starlink, which has already launched thousands of satellites. But one fumble doesn’t necessarily undermine the fundamentals that have pushed the stock to astronomical highs over the past year. Its median price target among analysts is $97—19.75% higher than shares trade today.

But if there’s one thing we’ve learned from space stocks, it’s that it’s a bumpy ride to the top.—LB