The surprising winners (and losers) of the Iran war

Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you know by now that the war with Iran has spiked the price of oil, sent the S&P 500 tumbling, and spooked investors everywhere. But beyond the headline market swings—energy stocks are up, airline and tech stocks are down—there are some lesser-known winners and losers.

Just look at the latest victim of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz: helium. The crisis over your favorite element in the periodic table is ballooning fast.

All roads lead back to AI

Helium is a byproduct of natural gas production, and Qatar is one of the biggest LNG producers in the world—which means it’s also the source of roughly a third of the world’s helium supply. But with the Strait of Hormuz closed and daily attacks hitting Qatari energy facilities, prices of helium have roughly doubled in the last month.

That’s bad news for AI stocks: helium is crucial for cooling AI chipmaking equipment, which makes it a hot commodity for defense companies and chipmakers. It’s particularly bad news for South Korean companies like Samsung and SK Hynix, the two largest memory chipmakers in the world. The country is quickly running out of helium, and while South Korea reportedly has sufficient reserves to last until June, after that, desperation will set in. Samsung sank 5.16% today, while SK Hynix dropped 7.56%.

It’s not just stocks: On the consumer side, one sneaky culprit spiking the prices of everyday goods is the skyrocketing cost of plastic. Since plastic is manufactured with petroleum, the soaring prices of oil could soon make products like water bottles, garbage bags, and plastic utensils more expensive. The rising cost of plastic packaging could end up raising food costs—exacerbating the problem presented by rising fertilizer costs—and don’t forget, plastics are also embedded across industries like healthcare, car manufacturing, construction, and shipping.

Some companies see a silver lining

Accelerating fuel costs and supply chain disruptions sure don’t sound like a recipe for success. But some discount retailers are actually benefitting from the chaos.

Due to higher shipping costs and supply chain disruptions triggered by the war, retailers are receiving shipments too late to sell profitably, and trimming inventory at the same time. That means there are more goods available that retailers no longer want to keep.

Since affordable chains like TJ Maxx, Ross, and Burlington build out their inventory by purchasing items retailers want off their shelves, an increase in unwanted inventory from the bigger chains would allow off-price retailers to buy those items more cheaply, according to a note from Bank of America analyst Lorraine Hutchinson.

Shares of TJ Maxx parent company TJX climbed 2.54% today, while Burlington Stores increased 4.12% and Ross Stores jumped 3.75%.

The bottom line: It’s a great day to be a Maxxinista.—LB