From computing marvel to markets

Quantum computing has long felt like something out of a sci-fi movie. But lately, it’s starting to look a little more real.

In just the first quarter of this year, several quantum startups have rushed to go public by merging with SPACs:

• Infleqtion went public on the NYSE last month via Churchill Capital Corp. The company develops quantum sensing and computing technologies, with Pentagon-backed defense contracts boosting investor appeal.
• Horizon Quantum recently debuted on the NASDAQ via dMY Squared, positioning itself as the premiere quantum software platform.
• Xanadu went public on both the NASDAQ and TSX via Crane Harbor Acquisition Corp on Friday, becoming the first pure-play photonic quantum computing company.

Reality check

However, it’s not going quite as these companies hoped. The buzz has faded fast: Infleqtion is down about 37% since going public, Horizon Quantum has slipped roughly 10%, and Xanadu tumbled nearly 32% today.

That doesn’t come as much of a surprise, given, well, everything going on. War and stagflation fears are weighing on investor confidence—especially for speculative plays like quantum computing, where companies are typically capital-intensive, pre-revenue, and reliant on long-term, uncertain breakthroughs.

The structure of these deals adds another layer of risk. SPACs offer a faster, less regulated path to market, with valuations set privately between sponsor and target. That makes them particularly attractive for quantum firms, as they allow companies to use forward-looking projections to sell that long-term vision.

But for investors, that creates a clear mismatch between valuation and fundamentals. Take Xanadu: it generated just $2.7 million in revenue in the first nine months of 2025, yet the SPAC deal it inked to go public values the company at roughly $3.1 billion.

A turning point arrives

Whether that valuation gap is justified is up for debate. But some analysts remain bullish on the space, arguing the industry may be at an inflection point.

For years, quantum computing was largely R&D-driven, with governments footing the bill as the US, China, and the EU poured billions into building out the sector. Now, early signs of commercialization are starting to emerge, with use cases in logistics optimization, financial modeling, and drug and materials discovery hinting at real-world demand beyond the lab.

“Quantum is one of a small number of technology categories investors view as structurally inevitable...The addressable market at full maturity is estimated at $100 to $250 billion, which gives patient capital a reason to look past near-term volatility,” Velu Sinha, partner at Bain, told CNBC.

While the timeline remains uncertain, this recent wave of quantum companies going public signals capital is already positioning for the future. Investors should watch closely for signs that quantum computing is on its way to becoming the new AI trade.—SY