Circle cashes in on crypto chaos

Stablecoins are designed to be stable. Circle’s last quarter was anything but.

At least the balance sheet looks good. The stablecoins issuer beat both revenue and earnings forecasts afterales climbed 77% year over year, and the company reaffirmed 40% annual growth for USDC in circulation. Shares rose 35.33% on the news.

The gains were driven by strong stablecoin demand, with USDC ending 2025 at $75.3 billion in circulation, up 72% from the prior year—second only to Tether’s USDT. The Trump administration’s crypto-friendly stance, including passage of the Genius Act, has also supported broader adoption.

Circle’s rebound offers relief after a bruising stretch. The stock had fallen 80% from its post-debut peak in June last year, as falling interest rates pressured its rate-sensitive business model.

Bitcoin under pressure

Circle’s strength comes amid renewed weakness for crypto’s flagship asset.

During volatile stretches, traders often rotate out of bitcoin and into stablecoins, boosting demand for tokens like USDC even as broader crypto prices decline.

Bitcoin has struggled in recent weeks, briefly slipping below $60,000, about 50% off its early October high near $127,000. It’s now on track for its longest monthly losing streak since 2018. With 9 million coins—roughly 45% of supply—now underwater, it might be time to check in on your college buddy who went all-in on crypto a few years back.

The decline has coincided with broader risk aversion after President Donald Trump signaled plans to raise global tariffs to 15%. BTC markets analyst Rachael Lucas told Bloomberg, “Despite the ‘digital gold’ narrative, Bitcoin continues to trade as a risk asset. When macro fear spikes, capital rotates toward traditional safe havens. Bitcoin is not there yet.”

Don’t call it a comeback

There were signs of life across digital assets today, with most major tokens in the green as stocks edged higher and risk appetite improved ahead of Nvidia’s earnings report. Bitcoin rose 8.06%, Ether added 11.94%, Solana gained 13.32%, and XRP jumped 8.75%.

For Circle, however, a sustained crypto rebound could cut both ways, since a stronger crypto market typically reduces the flight-to-stability flows that prop up stablecoin demand. Still, some analysts caution against reading too much into a single-day bounce. As Jake Ostrovskis, head of over-the-counter trading at Wintermute, told Bloomberg, until bitcoin decisively clears $75,000 again, it’s “hard to see many taking it seriously.” —SY