Novo's series of unfortunate events

Novo Nordisk’s chances of success are getting slimmer and slimmer.

Today, the Danish pharmaceutical giant reported disappointing results for its new experimental drug CagriSema, the company’s competitor to Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide drugs like Mounjaro and Zepbound. The firm was hoping the novel formulation would be its silver bullet, but instead, in phase 3 of its trial, CagriSema did not meaningfully outperform Eli Lilly’s drugs after 84 weeks.

Novo’s stock dropped 16.39% today, hitting its lowest level since July 2021.

If that wasn’t bad enough, Eli Lilly just launched a blockbuster new GLP-1 formulation that has a month’s worth of doses in a single pen today. Prices start at $299 for the super-dose on Eli Lilly’s direct-to-consumer site, LillyDirect. Shares of the company rose 4.72%.

When it rains it pours

While Novo was the first out of the gate in the GLP-1 race when it released Ozempic in 2021, the Danish pharma behemoth quickly blew its lead to Eli Lilly after a series of supply chain screw-ups. Novo never really recovered: Earlier this month, the company reported that its sales and profit growth is expected to slow between 5% and 13% over 2026, while Eli Lilly said it expects sales growth of about 25%.

On top of all that, the company is playing a high-stakes game of legal whack-a-mole with the various telemedicine startups peddling knockoff versions of GLP-1 drugs, the most prominent being Hims & Hers. Novo fell 50% last year, while it’s already down 22.64% year to date.

Now, the giant that once saw its market cap balloon past the GDP of Denmark thanks to weight loss drugs is restructuring, conducting massive layoffs, and facing more competitive pressure than ever.

Sometimes a company has to hit rock bottom before the comeback story can unfold. Just don’t expect a Hail Mary overtime victory for Novo Nordisk anytime soon.—LB