Gold is killing the market's vibe

The S&P 500 briefly broke above 7,000 for the first time ever today as investors listened to your inspirational desk mug and decided to keep calm and carry on.

The expectation that the Fed will eventually lower interest rates this year—although not today—has helped fuel the rally this month. And investors are optimistic that a batch of Silicon Valley earnings from three members of the Mag 7 tonight will yield good news and keep the market humming.

But the S&P 500 got its final big boost over the finish line this morning following strong reports from AI trade stalwarts like ASML, SK Hynix, and Texas Instruments. It certainly didn’t hurt that Nvidia got the green light from regulators to sell its H200 chips in China.

Bullion’s bullish ascent

The S&P 500 isn’t the only index breaking records these days. The Russell 2000 has gained 6.14% since the start of the year—outpacing the S&P 500’s gain of 1.94% over the same period. Small-cap stocks are crushing their larger peers as investors anticipate strong economic growth in 2026.

Of course, it hasn’t been all smooth sailing for stocks both large and small. The capture of Nicolás Maduro, coupled with the threat of new tariffs just last week, has kept investors on their toes. But while stocks endure a bumpy ride, gold has continued to shine amid the chaos.

The safe haven asset has jumped 19.54% over the past month, propelling it above $5,300 per ounce for the first time ever today. Geopolitical fears have helped buoy the hot commodity, as has a decline in the US dollar (more on that later).

In fact, gold is surging so much that the S&P 500 is moving lower relative to gold, according to Stifel’s chief equity strategist Barry Bannister. That isn’t exactly an encouraging sign: according to Bannister, there have only been four instances that stocks have lagged gold in the past century, and each time it was a signal that the stock market was about to plateau.

But hey, maybe the fifth time’s the charm.—LB