New year, new drama

In case you haven’t heard, the US kicked off 2026 by taking a trip to Venezuela and absconding with President Nicolás Maduro.

The world was shocked by the dramatic turn of events over the weekend, and the long-term geopolitical implications are still shaking out. But despite the major escalation in recent hostilities, the stock market largely shrugged off the news.

Part of the reason why investors didn’t freak out is the historical record. According to UBS, the S&P 500 only fell an average of 0.3% in the week following the last 11 major geopolitical events, and rose 7.7% over the next year. With the administration walking back President Trump’s earlier comments about how the US will “run” Venezuela, investors seem confident that the storm has largely passed, and that markets will quickly recover from the drama.

A crude reality

Just because stocks didn’t go into freefall today doesn’t mean that the market didn’t react at all.

Oil prices have been slippery since the attack. On one hand, geopolitical shocks usually give oil a boost. Then again, traders are also weighing the fact that the US has pledged to increase oil production in Venezuela, which would sink prices. For now, the oil market looks stable—Venezuela produces roughly 1% of global oil supply, and its oil infrastructure remains operational, so traders are taking a wait-and-see approach.

Energy companies, however, are seeing green. Chevron, the last major oil company to remain in Venezuela over the past decades, rose 5.1%, with the expectation that it will likely expand production in the nation. Meanwhile, refiners Valero Energy rose 9.23% and Marathon Petroleum jumped 5.94%, given they process Venezuelan oil and will likely get a big boost to their businesses. SLB and Halliburton, which are major oilfield service firms, rose 8.96% and 7.84%, respectively, since they could potentially be called upon to upgrade oil infrastructure in Venezuela.

In other commodity news, gold, silver, and copper all surged, as traders sought to hedge their bets given the obvious geopolitical risk.

Playing defense

US defense stocks, of course, rose as well. Shares of Lockheed Martin gained 2.92%, Northrop Grumman jumped 4.38%, and L3Harris Technologies climbed 2.27%, while General Dynamics rallied 3.57%. But perhaps less intuitively, European defense contractors including Rheinmetall, BAE Systems, Thales, and Leonardo also jumped thanks to fears that the US’s attack could inspire Russia to up its own military aggression.

The threat of a new world order based on “hard power” also sent Asian defense companies soaring, including names like IHI Corp, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, and Kawasaki Heavy Industries.

Perhaps the most unexpected company to get dragged into the fray was Nike. Search results for “Nike tech fleece” surged after Maduro was seen wearing the iconic tracksuit in photos taken of him in custody aboard a US naval vessel. The Nike tracksuit has since sold out, and Nike shares are up 1.98% today

Given Nike has lost value for four years straight, the company will probably take any lifeline it can get.—LB