What the heck is going to happen in 2026?

After a year where bitcoin whipsawed from euphoria to existential dread, 2026 is shaping up to be the ultimate Rorschach test for analysts. Depending on who you ask, crypto is either headed for the stratosphere, slowing down for a long breather, or falling off a macroeconomic cliff.

Here’s where Wall Street is placing its bets.

• Standard Chartered struck a cautious tone heading into 2026, cutting its year-end bitcoin forecast to $150,000, half of its previous estimate, and trimming expectations across the rest of the decade. The bank argues that one key demand engine—buying from digital-asset-treasury companies—has largely dried up, removing a source of incremental upside. Still, Standard Chartered hasn’t abandoned its long-term conviction: it maintains that bitcoin could reach $500,000 by 2030, suggesting the current pullback is more of a reset than the end of the story.
• Bernstein remains firmly in the bull camp, raising its 2026 bitcoin target to $150,000 and projecting that the current cycle will peak closer to $200,000 in 2027. Analysts said the recent 30% drawdown barely dented long-term demand, pointing to surprisingly steady ETF flows even during heavy selling. In their view, bitcoin is no longer following the traditional four-year halving rhythm, and has entered an “elongated bull cycle” shaped by structural adoption. Bernstein continues to call for bitcoin to reach $1 million by 2033, framing the volatility as noise within a much larger upward trend.
• Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse is unsurprisingly optimistic, and expects bitcoin to reach $180,000 by end-2026. He points to three drivers: gradual regulatory progress, a pickup in real-world adoption, and the entry of heavyweight institutions like Vanguard and Franklin Templeton into the US crypto ETF market.
• JP Morgan takes a comparative approach, noting the widening gulf between gold’s $28.3 trillion market cap and bitcoin’s $1.9 trillion. Rather than seeing that as a limitation, the bank views it as a sign of the upside potential for bitcoin over the next 6 to 12 months. Analysts reaffirmed a $170,000 price target for 2026, arguing that bitcoin’s volatility relative to gold has been steadily declining—a shift that could justify valuations far closer to gold’s over time. In their view, bitcoin’s maturation, not just its momentum, is what supports the bullish case.
• Independent analyst “NoLimit” broke from the pack with one of the few bearish calls, warning that bitcoin could fall below $50,000 in 2026. His concern isn’t crypto-specific but macro-driven: he highlights the widening mismatch between US assets and liabilities; the latter have ballooned from roughly $30 trillion in 2016 to more than $60 trillion today. That imbalance, he argues, could trigger a broader market correction—one bitcoin wouldn’t escape.

No matter where bitcoin goes next, one thing is for sure: It’s going to be a bumpy ride.—SY