What to expect when you're expecting chaos

Like TLC announcing a new reality show called “Suddenly Amish”, there are just some things in life you never saw coming.

But when it comes to finance, there is a lot of money to be made in trying. Here are the top themes that analysts and traders are expecting to power markets in 2026:

• Powell replacement: Fed chair Jerome Powell’s term will wrap up in May 2026. As of now, the top candidates to replace him are National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, sitting Fed governor Christopher Waller, and former Fed board member Kevin Warsh. While there’s no telling just yet who will come out on top, President Trump seems prepared to make his pick early next year—which could create a “lame duck” situation for Powell that inserts even more uncertainty into economic policy.
• Global trade: According to the World Trade Organization, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, trade across the world will be hit with a serious slowdown next year as the effects of tariffs become more pronounced.
• IPOs: While the IPO pipeline started to pick up again this year, it should turn from a trickle into a stream, given the backlog of companies that have stayed private for longer, combined with the effects of easing regulation.
• Interest rates: Traders are forecasting fewer interest rate cuts around the world in 2026. Here in the US, the Fed’s most recent “dot plot” forecast a median of just one rate cut, though Wall Street’s average estimate is that there will be two cuts—or perhaps even more, depending on who gets Jerome Powell’s job.
• The economy: Bank of America anticipates that, at the same time that consumers are struggling, AI will increasingly become a factor that weakens the job market—particularly for recent grads.

Finally, when it comes to the stock market, analysts are largely optimistic: The median price target is 7,500, according to MarketWatch.

And even if all the predictions end up being wrong, the truth is, the market tends to go up, and downturns balance out over time: “In 62% of years (46 out of 75), annual returns are above 10%,” wrote Carson Group chief market strategist Ryan Detrick.

You know what they say: Keep calm and dollar-cost average.—LB