Apple takes the lead

After 14 years, Apple finally took a byte out of Samsung’s lead.

Apple is expected to ship 243 million iPhones this year, ahead of Samsung’s 235 million, according to Counterpoint Research. Shipments reflect units sent to retailers, not actual sales, but the milestone still gives Apple an estimated 19.4% global market share, topping Samsung’s 18.7%.

A big part of that momentum comes from the iPhone 17 launch. In the US, sales during the first four weeks after it hit store shelves were 12% higher than sales of the iPhone 16 series (excluding the 16e). In China, the jump was 18% higher.

Consumers are also hitting an upgrade inflection point. Millions who bought phones during the Covid boom are now ready to refresh—and with 358 million second-hand iPhones sold between 2023 and mid-2025, a massive base is gearing up for a replacement cycle.

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In a world where every headline is “AI this, Nvidia that,” Apple shares have quietly risen more than 36% since early summer even though it hasn’t spent billions trying to win the AI arms race.

Apple’s low-drama approach hasn’t stopped it from creeping toward the top of the Big Tech leaderboard. Its $4.11 trillion market cap is inching closer to Kingvidia’s $4.53 trillion, helped in part by rising pressure on Nvidia from Google. Last week, Google rolled out Gemini 3, and just yesterday, reports surfaced that Meta Platforms is in talks to use Google’s chips instead of Nvidia’s.

Meanwhile, Apple is staying in its own lane and doubling down on what it already dominates: consumer-facing tech. So far, the strategy seems to be working.

What’s next for Apple?

Counterpoint expects Apple to hold the No. 1 spot in global smartphone shipments through 2029, helped by a broad replacement cycle, weaker-than-expected tariff effects, a depreciating dollar, and continued expansion across its product ecosystem. The firm also cites a “resilient economic outlook” as a boost to consumer demand.

But recent data tells a different story. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index dropped to the lowest since April in November amid concerns about jobs and economic stability.

Even so, tech demand may be an exception. Best Buy noted that consumers remain willing to spend on meaningful tech upgrades when they are necessary or when there is technological innovation.

The bigger question is whether Apple’s “non-AI” approach continues to work. For now, AI leaders and AI stragglers are running at roughly the same pace, but that won’t hold forever. If Apple doesn’t articulate its AI strategy soon, its quiet climb could eventually turn into a ceiling—the kind even a new iPhone can’t get around.—SY