The crypto-based events betting platform Polymarket just got a serious stamp of legitimacy from the owner of the New York Stock Exchange.
Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the NYSE, plans to invest up to $2 billion in Polymarket. The deal values Polymarket at $8 billion, according to ICE.
Not only is ICE making an investment, but it’s going to now be the global distributor of Polymarket’s data, and will partner with Polymarket on “future tokenization initiatives,” according to its statement.
“Our partnership with ICE marks a major step in bringing prediction markets into the mainstream,” explained founder and CEO of Polymarket Shayne Coplan.
Everything feels like a game
Polymarket was previously barred from operating in the US in 2022 thanks to a settlement with the CFTC, but betting markets surged in popularity ahead of the 2024 presidential election, when international users bet $3.2 billion on Polymarket over who would win the White House.
Now that the Trump administration has kicked off a new era of lighter regulatory oversight, Polymarket is planning a comeback. The company acquired derivatives exchange QCX for $112 million in July, opening the door to an impending return to the US. Federal prosecutors also pulled back a probe of the company this summer, while Polymarket added Donald Trump Jr. to its advisory board in August.
Making sense of market moves
Stay up to date on the latest market news with daily analysis of the investing landscape, served up Brew-style.
Polymarket’s return to US shores is coming at the perfect moment. Major competitor Kalshi has recently grabbed headlines for bursting into the sports betting industry, particularly with parlay wagers, earning record-breaking revenue last week. The result was a steep selloff for DraftKings and FanDuel parent company Flutter Entertainment that continued today: Flutter fell 3.69%, while DraftKings lost 5.8% this afternoon.
The weakness of incumbent sports betting companies combined with Americans’ appetite for all things gambling makes this a prime time for Polymarket to strike, and now Intercontinental Exchange can enjoy a slice of the profits as well.
Keep in mind: The fallout from legalizing sports betting has convinced critics that event betting is destructive for users, and some even fear the practice could lead to election interference and potential corruption. In addition, prediction markets face a barrage of legal challenges across the country, and while a friendly White House has protected companies like Kalshi and Polymarket thus far, a single ruling could upend the fast-growing industry.
However you feel about gambling, one thing is for sure: We’re moving toward a culture where everything, from sports to elections to investing, is increasingly gamified. Whether or not that’s a good bet remains to be seen.—LB