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Macro Economics

The tariff clock is counting down

With one day left until a deadline, trade deals are flying fast and thick.

A stack of shipping containers with US, Brazil, South Korea, and Indian flags

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The fate of the global economy is being decided via Truth Social posts.

Over the past few days, the White House announced a slew of last-minute tariff deals before the reciprocal tariff deadline hits on Friday—for real this time.

We all remember that fateful Liberation Day posterboard etched into our brains, where President Trump unveiled his massive tariffs on major trading partners on April 2. But he delayed implementing them first until July 9, and then again until August 1, in order to give the White House time to make deals and avert complete global chaos.

Now, Trump is already waffling on the Friday deadline, announcing today that Mexico will get another 90-day extension to the deadline, during which the US will leave its trading partner’s tariff rate at 25%.

“More and more, we are getting to know and understand each other,” Trump wrote of Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum this morning in a Truth Social post.

The trade war tally thus far

While there are still major trading partners, namely Canada, Mexico, and Taiwan, that haven’t agreed to any kind of truce, the US has made deals with the UK, Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines, Japan, the EU, and China since April 2. Just yesterday, Trump announced a deal with South Korea that leaves its tariff rate at 15%

Last night, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that Trump had also reached deals with Thailand and Cambodia, but the two nations have not yet confirmed the details.

But the White House isn’t just signing deals—it’s also dropping new tariffs. On Tuesday, the president signed an executive order upping tariffs on Brazil to 50%. And yesterday, Trump announced a 25% tariff on India in addition to an unspecified “punishment” for purchasing Russian energy—a tactic of “economic coercion," according to Bloomberg.

A copper wrench thrown in the plan: Trump also announced a fresh 50% tariff on refined copper imports, which include products like pipes and wires. The move scared investors, and copper prices continued tumbling another 20.96% today.

Time to panic and sell all your stocks? Maybe not. “We continue to view much of the recent rhetoric as part of the negotiation process,” wrote UBS Global Head of Equities Ulrike Hoffmann-Buchardi in a note discussing the India penalty.

While discussions are happening, the countdown to tomorrow’s deadline continues. TikTok, TikTok….—LB

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