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After a week of fretting about why retail traders are willing to invest just because Sydney Sweeney is wearing denim, it looks like Wall Street finally got tired of fighting the rising tide.
Oppenheimer’s Chief Investment Strategist John Stoltzfus raised his price target on the S&P 500 from 5,950 to 7,100 today, 11% above today’s close. That makes him the biggest bull on Wall Street.
To be fair, Stoltzfus was the biggest bull on Wall Street at the beginning of this year, too. Back in January, his price target was also 7,100—before he cut it following Liberation Day.
“With the announcement of trade deals by President Trump and his administration (last week with Japan and then the announcement this Sunday by the President of a deal with the EU) we believe that enough ‘tariff hurdles’ have been overcome for now to reinstate our original price target for the S&P 500 of 7,100 by year-end,” Stoltzfus wrote.
In a note to clients this morning, Morgan Stanley Chief US Equity Strategist Mike Wilson sounded a bit more cautiously optimistic. He is leaning toward his bull case of the S&P 500 hitting 7,200 by the middle of 2026, citing strong earnings growth, a weak dollar, and pent-up demand from investors.
“Of course, the near-term set up is not without risks—back-end rates, tariff-related inflation and softening seasonals,” Wilson wrote. “Thus, we do expect some consolidation tactically, but we would reiterate that we expect pull-backs to be shallow (mid-to-high single digit percent range), and we're buyers of dips.”
The week ahead
While some pros are banking on higher highs ahead, many on Wall Street worry that investor enthusiasm is outpacing the market’s ability to keep the rally alive—and that things may come to a head this week, which is shaping up to be a make-or-break moment that CNBC has dubbed “the Olympics for market watchers.”
On Wednesday, we get the ADP employment report and a look at second-quarter GDP, and we’ll hear from Jerome Powell about the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate decision. Spoiler alert: The market thinks there’s a 96.9% chance the Fed keeps rates uncut. Oh, and don’t forget that both Microsoft and Meta Platforms report their latest earnings after market close.
The earnings keep coming on Thursday, when we hear from Amazon and Apple. We’ll also get a look at inflation with the latest PCE reading, which is widely expected to begin reflecting the effects of Trump’s tariffs in April. And don’t forget that a federal appeals court will hear oral arguments about whether or not Trump’s tariffs are actually legal in the first place.
Speaking of tariffs, Friday marks the August 1 deadline for the many trade deals the US has yet to lock down. It’s also the day that the monthly US nonfarm payrolls report, a pivotal look at the labor market, is revealed.
If you thought a week of meme stock mayhem was fun, just wait until the data starts dropping this week.—MR