It turns out the job market isn’t as spooked by trade war upheaval as consumers and investors have been.
The US economy added 177,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department reported this morning, slightly below the 185,000 jobs added in March but well above expectations of 133,000. The unemployment rate—4.2%—remained unchanged.
While today’s report was a bright spot, it wasn’t the only jobs numbers we got this week:
- Yesterday, the Labor Department said that initial jobless claims surged to 241,000 for the week ending April 26, an 18,000 jump from the previous month and above expectations—a more concerning snapshot than today’s report.
- On Wednesday, ADP reported that private payrolls only increased 62,000 for April, the smallest growth since July 2024, and far below expectations for 120,000.
- On Tuesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that US job openings fell to 7.19 million in March, the lowest level since September. But the report noted that layoffs fell to their lowest since June.
Not only was today’s data clouded by mixed-bag reports earlier this week, but many economists were quick to point out that these numbers reflect a world before the effects of President Trump’s policies were truly felt.
“April may have been the last month when we didn’t see the aggregate impact of trade war 2.0, DOGE job cuts, and tight immigration policy—but look closely enough and there are hints, like the slight decline in manufacturing payrolls and another drop in federal government jobs,” explained Head of Investment Strategy at JPMorgan Wealth Management Elyse Ausenbaugh.
Powell’s predicament persists
Today’s data supports the notion that the labor market is still healthy, and that the Federal Reserve can leave interest rates where they are for a little longer. Traders are pricing in a 98% chance the Fed keeps rates steady at its May 7 meeting.
One person who is rooting for that remaining 2% chance? President Trump, who yet again called on Fed Chair Powell to lower rates, writing, “NO INFLATION, THE FED SHOULD LOWER ITS RATE!!!” in a Truth Social post today.—LB
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