Trump worldwide

The US stock market is still surging in anticipation of the Trump administration’s policies on M&A, regulation, and taxes. But while domestic stocks are popping champagne, international stocks are already feeling the hangover.

Europe

While we Americans may be losing fluoride in our water, Europeans are at risk of losing a free trade environment that has long boosted their economy.

Trump’s protectionist policies, and especially the aggressive 10% across-the-board tariffs he has championed, have rattled European investors.

The result, according to Goldman Sachs, will be severe. The Wall Street firm just cut its growth forecast for the whole European region on the heels of Trump’s election from 1.1% down to 0.8%.

Germany, in particular, could take a serious hit from steep US auto tariffs, according to the bank. Goldman now expects the German economy to only grow 0.5% next year, down from its previous 0.9% forecast.

North America

But the regions that will be most disrupted by Trump raising the temperature on trade wars are closer to home. Canada and Mexico could each see their GDPs decline 2% by 2028 if Trump’s policies are enacted, according to Bloomberg Economics.

Our neighbors to the north are our biggest trade partner, followed by Mexico. Trump has also floated some pretty gnarly tariffs against Mexico specifically, including a triple-digit tax on auto imports.

China

Chinese stocks dropped sharply on Trump’s win. After all, the country has been the subject of much of Trump’s inflammatory ire—and his policy objectives. He has floated a tariff as high as 60% on Chinese goods.

In anticipation of Trump tariffs taking a toll, investors are hoping that the Chinese government will implement fresh stimulus measures to bolster its sagging economy—though for now, at least, that may be more optimistic than realistic.

As we all know, policy discussed during a campaign rarely actually makes it to the finish line, but uncertainty in itself is proving a hostile force to global markets.—LB