We may still be far from seeing a deal that Ukraine, Russia, and the US agree on, but that hasn’t stopped traders from betting on the rising likelihood of a peace agreement.

Moscow released American prisoner Marc Fogel in a prisoner swap on Tuesday, one sign that the two geopolitical powers were easing tensions. Then, on Wednesday, President Trump posted on Truth Social that he and Russian President Vladimir Putin had a “lengthy and productive” phone discussion, in which the two agreed to begin talks to end the war.

How to invest in a peace agreement

Markets immediately reacted to the news. The Euro rallied against the dollar, while European stocks rose—the Euro Stoxx 50 index climbed 1.75% today. Oil prices dropped on the report, given that peace in the region would lessen the strain on oil supply, before recovering later in the day.

While anyone trading today based on a currently non-existent peace agreement is likely getting ahead of themselves, JPMorgan analysts laid out how different sectors of the market could react when the war does end.

“In case of a ceasefire, Chemicals, Fertilisers and Construction would be the top sector beneficiaries vs Energy, Utilities and Defense on the other side,” JPMorgan Head of Equity Research Sophie Warrick wrote in a Wednesday note.

The bottom line: This is a classic buy the rumor, sell the news moment. And if you haven’t already noticed, Trump’s strategy of throwing things at the wall and seeing what sticks often results in some stark policy back and forth.—LB

🟢 What’s up

• Nvidia climbed 3.16% on the news that HP has shipped its first batch of the new Blackwell system.
• MGM Resorts hit the jackpot, rising 17.46% following a record-breaking fourth-quarter earnings report.
• Molson Coors’ beer may be cool as the Rockies, but its sales last quarter were red hot. Shares climbed 9.63%.
• Sales at Dutch Bros are as strong as its coffee, crushing Wall Street expectations and sending shares surging 29.10% today.
• Sony popped 5.55% thanks to plenty of PlayStations under Christmas trees last quarter.

What’s down

• Hanesbrands sagged harder than a pair of aging boxers, plunging 18.49% after missing estimates last quarter, projecting lower sales next quarter, and bidding farewell to its CEO.
• West Pharmaceutical Services, which makes delivery systems for injectable medicine, plunged 38.22% after shareholders heard how low management thinks earnings will be this year.
• Trade Desk tumbled 32.98% after the media buying platform beat earnings this quarter but missed on revenue, and forecast an even bigger miss next quarter.

This is the last bullish email that I will send for Q1 2025.

Don’t worry, we’re still optimists—you’ll be getting plenty of positive emails from us. The bold negativity above is from a client note written by Goldman Sachs tactical strategist Scott Rubner late Wednesday. He warns that market inflows, or the amount of money investors are putting into equities, is about to dry up.

Investors have been happy to buy the recent dips brought about by DeepSeek, tariffs, and a hot CPI report, to the point that there were three record-breaking days of buying in the last three weeks alone.

But while January and February are traditionally strong months for inflows thanks to big money from 401k and 529 plans, things usually taper off in March. That coincides with the end of the corporate buyback period on March 16, meaning less corporate money will be entering markets. And commodity trading advisors who have loaded up over the last few weeks are raring to sell at the first sign of a downturn.

Rubner says the combination creates a perfect storm that threatens to yank the bottom out from under stocks. Only time will tell if retail traders can continue to buoy markets through thick and thin.

Reddit sank 5.32% after the site reported 101.7 million global daily active users in Q4, a 39% increase year over year, but still lower than the 103.1 million Wall Street expected. The culprit, according to CEO Steve Huffman? Google tweaked its algorithm, which led to fewer Reddit posts getting that sweet SEO boost in search results.

• EPS: $0.36, versus projections of $0.25
• Revenue: $428 million, versus projections of $405 million

Robinhood Markets is entering its crypto era. Shares of the retail trading platform soared 14.11% after it reported that its crypto-based revenue jumped a staggering 700% year over year, to $358 million. That’s probably why Robinhood is doubling down on digital assets: Management said on the earnings call that the trading app is looking into tokenization of real world assets.

• EPS: $1.01, more than double expectations of $0.42
• Revenue: $1.01 billion, above expectations of $946 million

AppLovin investors are lovin’ this ad tech company. Shares jumped 24.02% today, bringing its 12-month gain to an impressive tk%. AppLovin was the best-performing tech stock in the US last year, but it looks like it has more room to run. Management said it is divesting its apps business and doubling down on AI ad software, a move analysts praised.—LB

• EPS: $1.73, beating expectations of $1.25
• Revenue: $1.37 billion, beating forecasts of $1.26 billion

• Is $1 million a lot of money these days?
• Speaking of big money, payment platform Zelle did $1 trillion in total payment volume last year.
• “An economic heart attack”: Billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio says the consequences of not addressing mounting US debt will be severe.
• Honda and Nissan will no longer pursue a merger, though they remain friends.
• Jobless claims hit 213,000 last week, below expectations of 215,000, in another sign that the labor market is looking solid.
• Elon Musk has allegedly stolen $80 million in FEMA funds, according to the comptroller of New York City.

After this week’s double whammy of hot inflation reports, Friday feels like a breath of fresh air. All we’ve got to worry about are US retail sales, which will tell us whether or not consumer spending is holding up, as well as the capacity utilization and industrial production report, which will likely reveal an ongoing slowdown in the manufacturing industry.

Earnings simmer down as well—there's only one big name to watch:

Before the open

Moderna has a unique problem: it's making vaccines at the exact same time fewer Americans than ever trust vaccines. Politics aside, the impact on the company's bottom line has been undeniably severe, and shares have sunk quarter after quarter. Analysts expect no difference this quarter, and while hopes are high that the company can develop an avian flu vaccine soon, RFK Jr's confirmation today shows there are still plenty of speedbumps ahead. Consensus: -$2.72 EPS, $951.09 million in revenue.