Craziness in the bond market may sound like an oxymoron—but for once, the usually quiet world of fixed income is the one in the spotlight.

Despite the Trump administration’s efforts to lower 10-year Treasury yields, they have surged wildly over the past few days. The 10-year yield jumped above 4.5% overnight as tariffs against international trading partners went into effect, concluding its largest three-day jump since December 2001.

By this afternoon, the yield on 10-year Treasury notes had fallen to 4.39%—still well above its 4.2% yield last Wednesday, aka Liberation Day. And if you think that’s wild, the 30-year Treasury was on track for its biggest gain today since 1982.

Why is this happening?

Earlier this week, we wrote about why President Trump wants to pull the 10-year Treasury yield down—it makes refinancing the US government’s debt cheaper, and makes borrowing on a whole range of goods easier for consumers. Instead, Treasury yields continue to rise—and that’s a problem for everyone inside and outside the White House.

The strange part? When there’s a massive stock selloff, investors usually flock to long-term Treasury bonds, which have the reputation of being a safe-haven asset. Bond yields fall when bonds rise, since yields and price move inversely.

But the global trade war of the past few days has upended that dynamic, as traders, hedge funds, and foreign governments alike rapidly dumped Treasury bonds, pushing yields higher.

However, today’s 10-year auction was a pivotal one, and traders were shocked to see a surge: $39 billion in 10-year notes were sold, and demand from foreign investors was robust. Less than an hour after the auction's results were made public, Trump took to Truth Social to declare a temporary ceasefire in the trade war.

Yielding some results

While Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent denied that the move to pause tariffs against many trading partners for 90 days was due to the bond market turmoil, it certainly seems like that was a huge factor.

“​​This was the news we and everyone on the Street was waiting for as the pressure on Trump took on a life of its own and the eye-popping rise of the 10-year yield was ultimately too much to hold his line on the self-inflicted Armageddon tariff unleashed at midnight,” wrote Wedbush equity analyst Dan Ives today of the tariff pause.

“The bond market probably forced their hand,” JPMorgan former Chief Global Strategist Marko Kolanovic told MarketWatch today, referring to the Trump administration.

By the end of the day, the 10-year yield had dropped to 4.34%. Baby steps, we suppose.—LB

🟢 What’s up

• In early 2025, Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastion proclaimed that this would be the “best financial year in our history.” Today, the air carrier cut its revenue forecast and pulled its fiscal 2025 guidance. Shares still rose 23.66%, and fellow airlines stocks followed suit: Southwest rose 15.43%, United climbed 26.14%, and American flew 22.60% higher.
• In what is going to become a theme this earnings season, Walmart pulled its fiscal Q1 outlook as well, citing tariff uncertainty. Shares climbed 9.55% regardless.
• Trump Media & Technology Group popped 21.67% after President Trump took to Truth Social and stated “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!! DJT.”
• Capri Holdings soared 31.09% on a report from the Wall Street Journal that a planned sale of Versace to Prada is on the verge of falling apart.
• Constellation Energy rose 16.50% after Citi analysts upgraded the stock, citing its attractive “risk-reward profile.”
• Mag 7 stocks added over $1 trillion in market value today, recouping some of their recent losses: Apple rose 15.33%, Nvidia climbed 18.72%, and Tesla gained 22.69%.
• Semiconductor stocks climbed as the industry managed to dodge the latest round of tariffs. Advanced Micro Devices gained 23.82%, while Arm Holdings climbed 24.20%.

What’s down

• Honestly, not much is down after tariffs were paused completely out of the blue. Every single sector in the S&P 500 ended the day in positive territory.

Take a look at the chart of the S&P 500 below. Can you guess when the tariff pause was announced today?

And yet, if you look at the bond market, the announcement was largely met with a shrug.

Investing isn’t easy even when the stock market is calm. And this week, the market is anything but calm.

Retail investors and Wall Street pros alike are suffering from whiplash as markets rise and fall at a moment’s notice, with fake news tweets tanking stocks on Monday and Truth Social posts sending them soaring today.

It’s anyone’s guess what will happen next, but analysts are doing their best to consult their crystal balls and figure out the smart way to invest. Wall Street’s advice basically breaks down into two categories: investing for safety, and investing for profit. If you think this is the end of the US economy, it’s time to store your wealth in safe havens. But if you think this is a buying opportunity, Wall Street has some picks for you.

Here’s some advice from the pros about the best ways to invest during tariff chaos.

How to invest for safety

• How to survive a down market when you’re near retirement
• Short-term US Treasuries can help protect against volatility and profit from a flight to safety, according to BlackRock
• 14 funds built to resist market chaos
• How to protect your money during economic turmoil
• The ETFs that can protect your portfolio from Black Swan events

How to buy the tariff dip

• 3 stocks to buy and hold as tariff turmoil continues
• 38 stocks that will beat the market this year, according to Evercore ISI
• 20 stocks that have risen despite tariff chaos with up to 30% more upside
• Apple is a “particularly enhanced buying opportunity,” according to Bank of America
• Forget tariffs: These are the best stocks to buy in 2025 and hold for the long run

Let’s be clear about something here: The markets looked quite a bit different when we began writing today’s newsletter at 9:30 am than they look at 4 pm. While the advice above is solid, the best way to invest is to focus on the long term, not the daily market moves. Diversified portfolios built around fundamentally sound businesses will help you keep your cool whether stocks soar or sink.—MR

• When will tariffs hit consumers’ wallets? Keep an eye on May 27.
• Leveraged ETFs have been a hot commodity, but they cost investors $25.7 billion last week.
• Soybeans are the hottest market at the moment as China’s retaliation hits crops. On a related note, the US may have to bail out its farmers.
• When the VIX breaks above 50 (like it did yesterday), here’s what history says happens next.
• Stop reading texts in meetings, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned employees. Glad to see he’s focused on the most important stuff at the moment.
• Speaking of phones, here’s how much an iPhone could cost thanks to tariff turmoil.
• These are the worst-performing stock funds of the last week.

Tomorrow’s the big one: the March CPI report. To be clear, don’t expect tariffs to show up in this reading—in fact, this should be the final inflation report before tariffs begin to rear their heads in these monthly readings, so soak in what are hopefully reasonable inflation numbers while you can.

And let’s not forget that tomorrow also brings us the weekly jobless claims report, which should prove interesting given the massive DOGE job cuts that swept through the US government—and especially the Department of Health and Human Services—last week.

As for earnings, there’s only one company on deck tomorrow:

Before the open

• CarMax is an interesting conundrum right now. On the one hand, auto tariffs will increase the value of used cars, which will in turn benefit this online car reseller’s profit margins. On the other hand, the higher those used car prices go, the less affordable they become—which will in turn damage the company’s revenue. An investment in CarMax now is likely a speculative investment on how tariffs play out across the auto industry, so the best move at the moment may be to wait and see. Consensus: $0.63 EPS, $5.9 billion in revenue.