The President may fancy himself a dealmaker, but the Supreme Court just trumped him.

This morning, the Supreme Court struck down the White House’s global tariffs in a 6-3 ruling, arguing that President Trump was exceeding his authority—a huge blow to the Trump administration and the core economic policy of the president’s second term.

The issue wasn’t the tariffs themselves, but the way they were implemented. While previous administrations had required investigations, findings, and approval before putting tariffs in place, it turns out that imposing tariffs immediately and unilaterally via Truth Social didn’t pass the sniff test. The Supreme Court justices particularly noted the way the president abused the International Economic Emergency Powers Act to put tariffs in place.

“It is also telling that in IEEPA’s half century of existence, no President has invoked the statute to impose any tariffs, let alone tariffs of this magnitude and scope,” the ruling said.

The post-ruling scoreboard

A number of industries were popping champagne today after the announcement:

• Retailers that import a majority of their products from overseas jumped on the news, particularly home goods and furniture sellers like Wayfair, RH, and Williams-Sonoma.
• Consumer brands, especially shoemakers like Crocs and Adidas, rose after the announcement, as did stocks like e.l.f. Beauty and Lululemon.

And, of course, we can’t forget what the ruling means for the Fed. “The Supreme Court decision will pave the way for accelerated rate cuts as inflation expectations from tariffs are now less of a factor,” wrote Jamie Cox, Managing Partner for Harris Financial Group, in a note today. “The looming question is what new authority the Administration will use to salvage some of the tariff revenue.”

Everyone wants their money back

Since a big chunk of tariffs are now illegal, the government technically owes businesses billions of dollars in refunds—one estimate says the US could repay up to $175 billion—a task that will be as much of a chaotic mess as you’d expect.

And what about the 90% of tariff costs that have been passed on to US consumers and businesses, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York analysis from earlier this week? We wouldn’t hold our breath for an IOU.

The crash out: In a speech from the White House this afternoon, Trump vowed to sign an executive order imposing a new 10% “global tariff” that will be added on top of the levies that remain intact after the court’s ruling.

Looks like the tariff drama still isn’t over yet.—LB

🟢 What’s up

• Opendoor Technologies rose 7.53% as fourth-quarter revenue of $736 million came in ahead of Wall Street expectations.
• AppLovin gained 1.62% on plans to launch a new social platform.
• Live Nation Entertainment climbed 3.35% with Q4 sales topping estimates despite a wider annual loss.
• Energy drink maker Celsius jumped 9.49% on upbeat commentary at the CAGNY conference and expanding shelf space.
• Chemical company LyondellBasell ticked up 2.42% even after halving its dividend.
• Corning advanced 7.32% after UBS flagged stronger demand signals from major hyperscalers.

What’s down

• CoreWeave lost 8.12% as financing fell through for a $4 billion Pennsylvania data center project backed by Blue Owl Capital.
• Grail dropped 50.55% when its Galleri multi-cancer screening test failed to meet its primary endpoint in a large UK trial.
• Chemours declined 16.51% on weaker-than-expected earnings.
• Cybersecurity company Akamai edged lower 14.07% despite a Q4 beat, weighed down by soft guidance.
• Walmart extended its slide 1.51% after HSBC downgraded it to Hold, citing limited near-term catalysts.
• The latest AI bloodbath: Anthropic’s new “Claude Code Security” sent shares of major cybersecurity firms tumbling, including CrowdStrike (down 7.95%), Cloudflare (down 8.05%), and Zscaler (down 5.47%).

Friday dished out an all-you-can-eat buffet of economic data to ponder over happy hour, and while the figures are hardly pop-the-champagne material, they’re also no reason to drown your sorrows. Here’s a cheat sheet of the numbers you need to know.

🟢 PCE was steady: The core personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.4% in December from the previous month (slightly above the anticipated 0.37%) and 3.0% from a year earlier. Although more or less in line with expectations, that monthly bump is a reminder that inflation is still alive and well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, lowering the odds of a rate cut at its next meeting.

GDP slowed hard: US gross domestic product grew at a 1.4% annual rate in Q4 last year. That’s a far cry from forecasts of 2.5% growth, a screeching slowdown from summer’s 4.4% increase, and the most sluggish pace since 2022. The record-setting 43-day government shutdown was the main culprit, whittling down federal spending by 16.6% last quarter, which carved 1.2 percentage points off of headline GDP.

🟡 Consumer sentiment is limping along: The University of Michigan’s sentiment index inched up to 56.6 in February from 56.4 in January, falling short of analysts’ forecasts of 57.3. About 46% of respondents blamed high prices for their bad mood, although this could change now that the Supreme Court has ruled against Trump’s authority to issue tariffs, which could eventually provide some relief. And luckily, prices are already down on one weekend staple…

🥚 Eggs are super cheap now. The average price of a dozen eggs rings in at $2.58—about half of record highs a year ago, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. So however ‘meh’ you may feel about the economy, at least you can order an omelet at weekend brunch without wincing at the bill. Cheers!—JD

Blue Owl is back in the headlines. Shocking, we know.

The alternative asset manager is liquidating $1.4 billion in assets to generate cash for investors sprinting for the exit. Most of the assets come from Blue Owl Capital Corporation II, a semi-liquid private credit fund sold to US retail investors, which is now suspending quarterly redemptions.

It’s the latest bad news for Blue Owl, which scrapped a plan last year to merge a private fund into Blue Owl Capital Corp, a move that could have crystallized investor losses of around 20%—something shareholders couldn’t tolerate.

The retail shift

Private credit has traditionally relied on institutional capital that locks up money for years. That structure matches the long-dated loans these funds originate, and reduces the risk of forced asset sales.

Retail investors, however, expect more liquidity, and their presence in private credit markets is growing. Research from Duke’s Fuqua School of Business shows institutional ownership of business development companies (BDCs) falling to roughly 25% by 2023, signaling a steady shift toward individual investors that has only continued over the last few years as private funds try to entice public money.

Bubble watch

That’s partly why private credit has swelled into a roughly $3 trillion global market. Years of ultra-low rates, tight spreads, and minimal defaults pushed investors steadily further out on the risk curve.

But that backdrop is starting to shift as demand slows. Fitch reports semi-liquid BDC inflows are down about 15% in recent months, while redemption requests have surged, with investors seeking nearly $3 billion in Q4 alone—a 200% increase from the prior quarter.

Markets are taking notice. Blue Owl Capital sank another 4.8% today, extending its slide from the prior session, and continuing to drag down peers like Apollo Global Management and Blackstone.

But the ripple effects stretch beyond asset managers, as buyers of Blue Owl’s loan portfolio include major pension funds and its own insurance arm. Analysts caution that as more assets migrate between funds and insurance vehicles, tracking risk across the non-bank financial system becomes more complex.

So yeah, Blue Owl is back in the headlines for all the wrong reasons. And somehow, this story still feels unfinished. See you at the next update.—SY

• Take a look at how Fed Chair Jerome Powell is protecting the central bank’s independence from President Trump.
• Paramount Skydance announced that its deal to buy Warner Bros. Discovery was cleared by antitrust regulators at the Justice Department. Just one problem: WBD still says it's selling itself to Netflix.
• Los Angeles County is suing Roblox for allegedly exploiting and endangering children.
• Bath & Body Works just launched an authorized Amazon storefront, making it the latest retailer to utilize the e-commerce giant’s logistics network.
• Two former Google engineers were indicted for stealing trade secrets.
• Here’s why one analyst says Nvidia’s love affair with OpenAI isn’t breaking up anytime soon.
• BioNTech filed a patent infringement lawsuit against Moderna related to its updated COVID-19 vaccine technology.

It’s a slower week for economic reports, but you should still brace yourself for a week of FedSpeak, as well as a major Mag 7 earnings report.

Monday: The earnings calendar starts slow next week, with reports from Dominion Energy, Domino's Pizza, and Hims & Hers Health leading the way. Meanwhile, we’ll hear from Fed governor Chris Waller.

Tuesday: Earnings pick up a bit, as reports start pouring in from Home Depot, Constellation Energy, MercadoLibre, American Tower, Standard Chartered, NRG Energy, DigitalOcean, Workday, Axon Enterprise, First Solar, CoStar, HP, and Cava. Federal reserve speakers include Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, and Fed governors Chris Waller and Lisa Cook. Plus, we’ve got the S&P Case-Shiller home price index, another February consumer confidence reading, and a report on wholesale inventories.

Wednesday: The earnings highlight of the week arrives with Nvidia in the afternoon. We’ll also get reports from HSBC, Lowe’s, Circle Internet Group, TJX, Salesforce, Synopsys, Zoom Video Communications, Medline, Snowflake, Diageo, Alcon, Trip.com, and Paramount Skydance. Meanwhile, we’ve got words of wisdom from Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin.

Thursday: Earnings reports include Rolls-Royce, Intuit, Duolingo, D-Wave Quantum, SoundHound AI, Dell, Warner Bros. Discovery, CoreWeave, Autodesk, Baidu, Rocket Lab, Block, Zscaler, Stellantis, and Flutter Entertainment. The only economic report worth watching is the usual weekly look at initial jobless claims.

Friday: Earnings are few and far between, with a smattering of names like Hawaiian Electric and Arbor Realty leading a tiny pack. As for economic reports, the big one to keep an eye on is the Producer Price Index, giving us a delayed look at wholesale inflation for the month of January.