If a war in the Middle East, the threat of an AI-pocalypse, and finance bros trying to model weren't all ominous enough, we just got a slew of alarming data points that might just point to the scariest word in investing: stagflation.

• The monthly jobs report came in far worse than expected: The US lost 92,000 jobs in February, the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, and adjustments to previous monthly numbers paint an uglier picture of the labor market than anyone would like.
• Meanwhile, January retail sales took their biggest tumble in 8 months, signaling a lack of consumer confidence.

So, there’s the stag—what about the ’flation?

• Brent Crude just hit $90 per barrel, and it’s only going to keep climbing now that Kuwait is cutting production due to a lack of storage space for oil.
• That’s going to seriously spike fuel costs, which are in turn going to stoke inflation 2022-style (in the worst case scenario).

Say it with us: S-T-A-G-F-L-A-T-I-O-N

All of this news means one thing: The Federal Reserve’s mission just got even more impossible.

The central bank is under serious pressure from the White House to slash rates—a move that many economists supported before rising oil prices added a ton of inflationary pressure. Now, between tariffs that may or may not happen and reports that oil prices could rise to $150 per barrel, traders are pricing in a 95.5% chance that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at the next FOMC meeting. But that just means the problem is kicked down the road, not solved.

“From a policy standpoint, the February report and latest geopolitical developments complicate the Fed’s job by raising risks on both sides of the dual mandate,” explained EY-Parthenon Chief Economist Gregory Daco in a note today. “That combination is likely to leave the Committee more internally divided on where the greater threat lies.”—LB

🟢 What’s up

• Marvell Technology rose 18.35% after a strong Q4, with demand for its custom AI chips and networking products driving results.
• CF Industries gained 4.51%, Intrepid Potash popped 6.67%, and Nutrien climbed 2.45%, as fertilizer producers are expected to benefit from tighter global supplies and rising prices tied to the war with Iran.
• Day One Biopharmaceuticals surged 65.88% on news it agreed to be acquired by French drugmaker Servier in a $2.5 billion deal.
• Guidewire Software climbed 4.99% following second-quarter results that topped expectations.
• Samsara advanced 19.54% after delivering better-than-expected fiscal fourth-quarter results.

What’s down

• Ford slipped 1.54% after announcing a recall of nearly 2.4 million vehicles, largely tied to issues with backup cameras and windshield wipers.
• Western Alliance Bancorp fell 8.46%, Rocket Companies dropped 4.53%, and ServisFirst Bancshares slid 4.5% as the Treasury yield curve steepened, a shift that can pressure banks’ net interest margins and loan demand.
• United Airlines declined 3.52%, Delta Air Lines lost 3.75%, and Southwest Airlines sank 5.35%, while cruise operators Norwegian dropped 4.18% and Carnival fell 4.99% as surging oil prices raised concerns about higher fuel costs.
• Saia slid 9.29%, Old Dominion Freight Line dropped 7.93%, and RXO declined 10.95% amid worries that rising diesel prices could squeeze trucking margins.
• Gap fell 14.41% after winter storms disrupted operations and weighed on fourth-quarter results.

If you thought the drama in private credit was fading, think again. Fresh cracks are starting to show, raising new questions about just how stable the industry really is.

BlackRock delivered the latest twist today, limiting withdrawals from its $26 billion private credit fund after redemption requests surged. Investors sought to redeem 9.3% of shares, but the firm capped repurchases at 5%. Shares fell 7.13% on the news.

Investors demanding their money back is a sign of the pressure private credit firms like BlackRock have been under lately. Just last month, Blue Owl Capital sold $1.4 billion in assets to raise liquidity as investors sought to withdraw funds.

As if that wasn’t enough, in a fourth-quarter filing released last week, BlackRock revealed it had written down a $25 million loan to Infinite Commerce Holdings to zero by the end of 2025—despite promising it was worth 100 cents on the dollar just three months earlier.

The write-down was partly because the borrower was struggling, but the more important takeaway is structural: Private credit valuations often update slowly, meaning problems can quietly build before they finally show up in reported numbers.

These developments come at a difficult time for the $1.8 trillion private credit industry, in which some analysts say default rates could climb as high as 15% as firms struggle under the weight of problematic loans made in easier economic environments. For now, leading lenders are still posting solid returns. But BlackRock’s latest moves suggest that investors should keep a close eye on the space, as this shakeout may just be getting started.—SY

After years in the dog house, meat has worked its way back into America’s hearts (and stomachs), creating an existential crisis for meat-bashing companies like Beyond Meat.

You read that right: The company formerly known as Beyond Meat has chopped “meat” from its name and been reborn as Beyond The Plant Protein Co., or just “Beyond” on its packaging.

This pivot is a make-or-break moment for the brand. Americans’ appetite for plant-based burgers, chicken nuggets, and other alternatives peaked back in 2020, and over the past two years, store sales for these products have plummeted 26%, according to NIQ. That’s taken a serious toll on Beyond’s sales: During the first nine months of 2025, its net revenue dropped 14%.

Beyond’s shares have been trading under $1 since mid-January, and the rebranding news hasn’t moved the needle much so far: The stock is up just 1.98% today, but remains down 3.32% year to date.

Part of the problem is that shoppers started reading the fine print on these supposedly healthy products and didn’t like what they saw: added sugars, sodium, and other questionable components. Since then, the company has pared down the formula for its flagship burger, Beyond IV, into a cleaner, healthier mix than its mystery-meat-alternative predecessors.

Zoom out: The bigger challenge is that veganism has been eclipsed by the protein craze, which has been popping up in everything from Starbucks coffee to ice cream to plain old water. Beyond recently hopped on this bandwagon with its first beverage—a sparkling protein drink called Beyond Immerse—and plans to release a protein bar this summer.

Meat: It’s what’s for dinner

This shift back to true-blue, red-blooded animal flesh has not only shaken up grocery aisles, but the pecking order of the restaurant industry. Case in point: Bragging rights for the largest sit-down restaurant by sales now goes to Texas Roadhouse, a chain famed for serving up steak for under twenty bucks.

Sadly, though, these high-protein, low-priced meals may not last, since beef prices have risen by a third over the past three years. Given that beef makes up about half of the company’s ingredient costs, it's no wonder Roadhouse’s profits fell last year by 6.5% to $405.6 million—its first annual drop since 2020—and EPS came in 26% lower year over year when earnings were announced in mid-February.

The chain raised prices by 2% last year and is slated to raise them again this April to offset the decline, and shares remain up 3.34% year to date despite the tough report. Clearly, diners and investors alike both enjoy a good steak dinner.—JD

• US customs said it can’t comply with a court order to refund tariff costs.
• Gulf states are rethinking trillions of dollars of investment in President Trump and the US in the wake of the war with Iran.
• Here’s why Berkshire Hathaway is buying up its own stock once again.
• President Trump is meeting with defense companies at the White House today, including Lockheed Martin and RTX.
• Robinhood just launched a $658 million private market fund for retail investors.
• The Trump administration announced that the US will insure losses up to $20 billion for oil tankers during the Iran war.

Monday: Vail Resorts, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, and Casey's General Stores lead the week off with their latest earnings announcements, with no economic reports worth mentioning.

Tuesday: The earnings keep rolling in with Oracle, Nio, AeroVironment, and Kohl’s, while the only economic reports of note include the NFIB small business optimism index and a look at existing home sales.

Wednesday: The first of two big inflation readings this week arrives with the February CPI report. The only earnings to keep an eye out for come from UiPath and Campbell’s.

Thursday: There’s a bushel of economic reports to watch for, including weekly initial jobless claims, a look at the US trade deficit for January, and the monthly report on housing starts in February. As for earnings, there’s Adobe, Ulta Beauty, Lennar, Dollar General, Li Auto, Dick’s Sporting Goods, and Ollie’s Bargain Outlet.

Friday: No earnings of note, but we’ve got plenty of economic reports to keep an eye on. The big ones are a primary revision of Q4 GDP, a preliminary look at consumer sentiment in March, the January JOLTS report, and the granddaddy of them all, the January PCE reading.