Yesterday, Goldman Sachs kicked off earnings season with strong results, but a miss in fixed income trading pushed shares lower. Today, a boatload of big banks reported, giving us a broader look at how financials are holding up amid recent economic mayhem.

Here’s how they fared last quarter:

• JPMorgan Chase beat on both top and bottom lines, delivering its highest-ever Q1 revenue. Fixed income trading was a standout, rising 21%, while loan loss provisions came in lighter than expected, and investment banking fees also climbed 28%. Shares inched 0.82% lower today.
• Citigroup reported a 56% jump in EPS year over year alongside its best quarterly revenue in a decade. Fixed income trading rose 13%, while equities surged 39%. Shares rallied 2.61%, briefly hitting an 18-year high.
• BlackRock’s net income climbed 46% and revenue rose 27%, driven by record inflows of $130 billion. Base fee growth reached 8%, marking its best first quarter in five years, with CEO Larry Fink calling it one of the “strongest starts to a year in the firm’s history.” Shares ticked up 3.02%.
• Wells Fargo beat on earnings but missed on revenue, missed on noninterest income, and missed on net interest income—the latter of which is a key signal for profitability. The bank was released from the Fed’s asset cap in June, but its inability to capitalize on its newfound freedom miffed investors. Shares fell 5.7% on the news.

Private credit in focus

For the most part, the results from these banks show that even amid energy and trade uncertainty, geopolitical conflicts, AI disruption fears, and large government deficits, they’re still holding up pretty well.

But as we discussed yesterday, one looming risk investors are watching closely is private credit. Across the group, banks are sitting on roughly $100 billion in exposure, including $22 billion at Citigroup, $36.2 billion at Wells Fargo, and $50 billion at JPMorgan Chase.

“While we cannot predict how these risks and uncertainties will ultimately play out, they are significant and they reinforce why we prepare the firm for a wide range of environments,” JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said.

For now, there seems to be a growing divide in how banks are positioning for what’s ahead. JPMorgan’s relatively modest increase in loan loss provisions suggests confidence that credit conditions remain stable, while Goldman Sachs’ larger buildup points to a more cautious stance. Investors will have to wait and see how private credit ultimately holds up, and which view proves right.—SY

🟢 What’s up

• American Airlines popped 8.01% on reports that management at United Airlines (also up 2.07% today) broached the idea of a merger.
• Semiconductor company Credo Technology surged 18.76% after it announced the acquisition of DustPhotonics to better develop photonic integrated circuits (whatever that means).
• Everything’s AI now: Novo Nordisk gained 3.53% thanks to a new partnership with OpenAI.
• Satellite maker Globalstar gained 9.63% on the news that Amazon (up 3.81%) is acquiring it in an $11.57 billion deal that puts it up against Elon Musk’s SpaceX.
• Bloom Energy rallied 23.98% on news that it has expanded its deal with Oracle (up 4.74%) to provide the software company with more power.
• Travere Therapeutics soared 37.23% after the FDA approved the use of its drug Filspari to treat not one but two kidney diseases.
• It’s World Quantum Day, so quantum computing stocks got a boost across the board: Xanadu Quantum Technologies popped 29.07%, IonQ rose 20.16%, and D-Wave Quantum jumped 15.84%.

What’s down

• Dell got an unexpected bump yesterday on rumors that it will be acquired by Nvidia, but shares tumbled 2.78% after Nvidia refuted the reports.
• CarMax crashed 15.12% after the seller of used cars posted rough earnings and halted its share buyback program.
• EV manufacturer Lucid originally popped on news of deals with the Saudi Public Investment Fund and Uber, as well as the reveal of a new CEO. But shares gave up gains and lost 4.76%.
• AST Spacemobile sank 10.51% thanks to a double whammy of Amazon’s deal with competitor Globalstar and the delay of its BlueBird 7 launch.

The stock market is not the economy. It’s a mantra many investors learn early, and judging by the diverging realities of the economy and the stock market, it’s never been more true.

Over on the economy side, things seem pretty bleak:

• Harvard Professor Linda Bilmes says the war in Iran will cost American taxpayers $1 trillion
• The International Monetary Fund warns that global financial stability is at risk, and that economic growth could slow to levels only seen during deep recessions if the war continues
• Citadel CEO Ken Griffin says a recession is inevitable if the Strait of Hormuz remains shut

But at the exact same time, Wall Street has been getting increasingly optimistic:

• BlackRock just raised its outlook for US stocks, arguing that the effects of the war in Iran will be contained
• Citigroup analysts also upgraded US stocks to overweight, though they prefer to keep their positioning defensive

The disconnect between stocks and the economy lies in earnings: Despite market volatility, Wall Street analysts expect this to be a very strong corporate reporting season. The pros think that macroeconomic upheaval won’t prevent tech stocks—the driving force of stock market gains—from reporting impressive earnings, while laggards like energy stocks will get a boost from rising oil prices.

So, how do you reconcile these two diverging realities? Bank of America’s Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett pointed to BofA’s April fund manager survey, which revealed that buy-side investors are the most bearish they’ve been since June 2025. But Hartnett says that might actually be a buy signal, and is “contrarian positive for risk assets.” He warned that investors shouldn’t blindly buy just yet, but if the ceasefire holds, oil prices fall, and earnings are as good as expected, Wall Street’s optimism may be justified.—MR

The Artemis II astronauts plunged back into Earth’s orbit successfully, Project Hail Mary broke box office records, and President Trump just declared he wants nuclear reactors…on the moon?

Space is back in a big way.

“A combination of scientific advancements, geopolitics and economics have rekindled investor attention on the Space theme to the highest levels we have seen since launching the Morgan Stanley Space Team nearly a decade ago,” explained Morgan Stanley equity analyst Adam Jonas.

The Morgan Stanley team pointed out that the number of objects launched into space has grown 20% annually, and the number of objects successfully launched into space has grown 25%. Meanwhile, the White House just boosted the US Space Force budget by 77% year over year.

Not only is space travel booming, creating more demand, but the critical materials that make space travel possible are in short supply, opening a window of opportunity for companies that can grab market share while the new space race is just beginning.

To the moon, literally

To give investors a road map for how to work outer space into their portfolios, Morgan Stanley analysts created a “Space 60” list of publicly traded firms that are the “picks and shovels” that make space travel possible. They broke the companies down into seven themes:

• Raw materials and mining: These are the companies that extract minerals, including MP Materials, Almonty, and Alcoa.
• Specialty materials and alloys: These firms build materials that can withstand the extreme conditions that come with entering space, including Carpenter, ATI, and Corning.
• Propulsion and fuels: This category is pretty self explanatory, and includes Air Products, Linde, and NewMarket.
• Electronics and semiconductors: The big dogs are in this category, such as Nvidia, Broadcom, and Microchip.
• Components and subsystems: These are manufacturing firms that manufacture the small things that make a spacecraft actually work, like fluid valves. That includes Honeywell, Ametek, and Amphenol.
• Spacecraft and launch systems: This category is more straightforward, and includes Boeing, RTX, and Voyager.
• Satellite operators and services: These are the companies that are helping satellites communicate with Earth, such as Amazon, Globalstar (which Amazon is actually acquiring), and Blacksky.

All we know is that if there’s a technology that can bring Rocky to life, that should be a priority.—LB

• PPI, which measures inflation at the wholesale level, came in much lower than expected—a welcome bit of news in the face of rising inflation fears.
• Rising oil prices are quickly creating a crisis for European airlines, which are facing a jet fuel shortage that could cancel a lot of flights this summer.
• Anthropic’s Mythos AI model has quickly reached mythological status, and now the US Treasury wants to use it to probe its systems for bugs.
• The Trump family’s crypto company has been accused of building a “trap door” that gives insiders power over users’ accounts.
• Lots of Fed news today:
  • Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says he understands if the Fed wants to wait for the effects of the war in Iran to play out before cutting interest rates.
  • Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh revealed he’s worth at least $135 million, far more than previous Fed chairs.
  • Speaking of Warsh, his nomination hearing will likely take place sometime next week.

Economic reports: Plenty of Fedspeak to listen for, with appearances by Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman and Fed governor Michael Barr, as well as the release of the Fed Beige Book. Also, don’t forget about the import price index and the Empire State manufacturing index.

Earnings announcements: The season continues with ASML, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley

Everything else: Tomorrow is tax day (you didn’t forget, right?)