Starting tomorrow, President Trump has pledged to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, the two largest US trading partners, and a 10% levy on China, its third biggest trading companion. It’s a move that would reorder global trade flows, possibly stoke inflation, and upend supply chains for hundreds of publicly traded companies.

The details of the order, such as whether any exemptions will be made, are unknown as of this afternoon. But White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed Trump would follow through tomorrow in response to the “the illegal fentanyl that they have sourced and allowed to distribute into our country,” referring to Mexico, Canada, and China.

Here’s what investors should know ahead of an expected tariff announcement affecting more than $1.5 trillion in goods traveling across North American borders.

Auto industry in focus

No sector exemplifies the interlinked North American economy like automobiles. With carmakers setting up factories across Mexico, Canada, and the US, international boundaries have, for all intents and purposes, vanished. A single car may pass the US–Canada border eight times before it hits a dealer’s lot, the New York Times reported.

Keep an eye on US automaker stocks. The six top-selling automakers in the US, which accounted for more than 70% of sales in 2024, have at least one plant in Mexico, per CNBC. General Motors has already felt the pain of investors’ tariff concerns. Shares fell nearly 9% on Tuesday, one of its worst days in years, because the company’s bullish outlook for 2025 did not account for the impact of tariffs.

Could oil be spared?

Eighty percent of Canada’s oil exports head south of the border, making it the top foreign source of crude oil to the US. Heavier Canadian crude, mostly from Alberta, accounts for up to 75% of the oil processed by Midwestern refiners, according to Bloomberg. Given this co-dependence, tariffs on Canadian oil would lead to upheaval in energy markets and potentially cause gas prices to rise.

The Congressional Research Service issued a report this month that found “Consumer prices for gasoline, diesel fuel, and other petroleum products throughout the country could be affected by crude oil import tariffs, especially in regions most reliant on imports from Canada.”

But President Trump appeared to leave an opening for oil to be excluded from tariffs. Speaking to reporters on Thursday, he said oil could be spared should Mexico and Canada “treat us properly” and “if the oil is properly priced.”

What retaliation might look like

It takes two (or three) to tango in a trade war, and both Canada and Mexico say they’ve prepared plans to retaliate against the US if Trump imposed tariffs on them. Canadian officials have already crafted a list of $105 billion worth of US exports they would target in response, which could include high-profile industries like Kentucky bourbon and Florida orange juice. It’d be another blow to a US bourbon industry that’s already spiraling: Jack Daniel’s owner Brown-Forman cut more than 600 jobs earlier this year, and its stock has fallen nearly 40% in the past 12 months.—NF

🟢 What’s up

• Atlassian, my love has come along. The Aussie software company’s stock soared 14.92% to a 52-week high after blowing by earnings estimates with AI-infused growth.
• Vertex Pharmaceuticals popped 5.31% after the FDA approved its drug Journavx, the first new non-opioid painkiller in decades.
• AST SpaceMobile, a Starlink rival, rallied 11.15% after getting clearance from the FCC to test cellular broadband service with its satellites.
• Meta (+0.32%) eked out a gain for its 10th straight session in the green, its longest winning streak in nearly a decade.

What’s down

• Walgreens said its turnaround attempt would require suspending its quarterly dividend. Investors grabbed their torches and pitchforks and sent shares tumbling 10.30%.
• Exxon Mobil (-2.50%) and Chevron (-4.56%) got dinged after reporting falling profits last quarter despite eye-watering payouts to shareholders. Exxon said it spent a record $36 billion on shareholder distributions, among the most of any company in the S&P 500.
• Deckers, the owner of Hoka Ugg, and Teva footwear, plunged 20.51% after reporting earnings that raised questions about demand. Some analysts responded the sell-off was undeserved.
• Nvidia fell another 3.67% to end its nightmare DeepSeek week down about 14%.

A dramatic surge in government regulations has hampered economic growth and imposed unreasonable costs on businesses, the Economist argues.

To their point: Federal regulations in the US now top 180,000 pages, up from 20,000 in the early 1960s, according to the Regulatory Studies Center at George Washington University. It’s not just the US—in Germany, the complete text of all the country’s laws has 60% more words than three decades ago.

A deregulatory agenda pursued by President Trump could unlock growth and boost share prices, the Economist says. For instance, Goldman Sachs plucked a group of companies in sectors such as energy, banking, and telecoms that would benefit most from the US government cutting red tape. Those stocks have jumped 23% on average since the middle of last year, relative to the broader market’s 14% rise.

It turns out that sometimes sitting out can help you get ahead.

That seems to be the case for Apple, which opted out of spending big to compete with its Silicon Valley peers in the AI infrastructure arms race. That decision proved wise this week after China’s DeepSeek appeared to compete with models from Open AI and Google at only a fraction of the cost.

And the most valuable company in the world managed to beat profit and revenue expectations in its first quarter. But the financial results, announced yesterday, weren’t a total victory lap, causing shares to dip 0.67%.

Let’s start with the good news:

• Revenue rose 4% over the quarter, coming in at $124.3 billion, higher than the $124.12 billion estimated.
• Apple reported EPS of $2.40, beating the $2.35 estimated by analysts.
• But what really relieved investors was its forward looking guidance: The firm said it expected revenue growth of “low to mid single digits” for the current quarter ending in March.

Apple of the Street’s eye: A slew of Wall Street pros raised their price targets on the stock after the announcement, including analysts from Jefferies, Citi, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and DA Davidson.

Apple Intelligence has a lot to learn

There were signs of cracks in the company’s key iPhone business, and even bulls agreed that Apple’s AI aspirations are still a long way from matching the hype CEO Tim Cook promised.

• Customers weren’t picking up Apple Intelligence's call. IPhone sales declined last quarter, with revenue coming in at $69.14 billion, below expectations of $71.03 billion. It was Apple’s biggest iPhone miss in two years and an ominous sign for the iPhone 16 in the first quarter of its rollout.
• Sales in China dropped 11% amid the country’s economic slowdown.

What the analysts have to say:

• “China remains a key wildcard, but Apple Intelligence is bolstering iPhone performance in regions where available, setting up a return to iPhone growth in FY26,” Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring wrote.
• Just stay patient, argued Wedbush analyst Dan Ives: “The Nvidia AI Revolution essentially happened overnight....Apple’s AI Consumer Revolution will happen over the course of 12–18 months and with almost 2.4 billion iOS devices including 1.5 billion iPhones this speaks to our firm bullish thesis on Cupertino and Cook & Co. over the next year,” wrote Ives.
• Not everyone thinks Apple can justify its $3.5 trillion market cap: “Despite our favorable view of the company and its fundamentals, we see Apple’s valuation implying overly rosy expectations for long-term growth,” explained Morningstar senior analyst William Kerwin. —LB

• Costco raised pay to over $30 per hour for most of its US store workers. A union representing 18,000 workers had threatened to strike following a Jan. 31 deadline to reach a contract agreement.
• Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang reportedly visited President Trump at the White House for the first time. It comes at a precarious moment for the chip giant, with shares down TK% this week due to DeepSeek’s apparent AI breakthrough.
• Dell CEO Michael Dell told employees living within one hour of the company’s offices that they need to come into work 5x a week starting March 3, per Insider.
• Speaking of DeepSeek, the US is investigating whether it evaded export restrictions by buying top-class Nvidia semiconductors through third parties in Singapore, Bloomberg reported.
• How much is a Wall Street bonus actually worth?

An absolutely packed week of economic data comes in hot starting on Monday with January manufacturing PMI, job openings and factory orders on Tuesday, and January services PMI and the ADP private payroll report on Wednesday. On Thursday, the initial jobless claims numbers drop, and Friday is the big monthly US jobs report.

As for earnings, this week’s tsunami may be over but there’s still plenty more where that came from.

Monday: Palantir, Tyson Foods, NXP Semiconductors, Clorox

Tuesday: Alphabet, Advanced Micro Devices, Pfizer, PayPal, Spotify, PepsiCo, Chipotle, Merck, UBS, Snap, Electronic Arts, Amgen, Mondelez International, Mattel, Estee Lauder, Cummins, Ferrari

Wednesday: Disney, Uber, Arm Holdings, Novo Nordisk, MicroStrategy, Qualcomm, GSK, Ford, Toyota, Boston Scientific, Allstate, The New York Times, Harley Davidson

Thursday: Amazon, Eli Lilly, Bristol-Myers Squibb, AstraZeneca PLC, Kellanova, Yum Brands, Cloudflare, Roblox, Under Armour, Pinterest, Affirm, Honeywell, Peloton, The Hershey Company, Take-Two Interactive Software, Skechers

Friday: CBOE Global Markets, Fortive, Flowers Foods