As tensions escalate in the Middle East, markets aren’t moving in lockstep. Instead of a broad selloff or rally, investors are rotating quickly, creating clear leaders and laggards across industries. Let’s take a look at who’s benefiting and who’s feeling the pressure today.

Champs: Shipping companies

Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint that carries an estimated quarter of both global crude trade and LNG (liquefied natural gas) shipments, disrupting energy flows and worldwide shipping routes.

For tanker operators, disruption often means higher profits, with longer routes and heightened risk boosting freight, insurance, and charter rates. History proves the pattern: Very large crude carrier (VLCC) rates rose over 40% at the start of the first Gulf War and as much as 304% during the second Gulf War, according to Evercore managing director Jonathan Chappell.

As a result, shares of tanker operators have risen significantly: the Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF, which tracks crude oil tanker freight futures, is up 230% year to date.

“These attacks are different from others and could be longer in duration and more meaningful in magnitude. And, for now, the sentiment and momentum associated with the severity of events, and the resulting uncertainty likely mean the next move is higher,” Chappell wrote in a note yesterday.

That’s why his team raised price targets on several tanker stocks, namely Ardmore Shipping Corporation, DHT Holdings, Frontline, Scorpio Tankers, and TORM plc. However, he did warn that a shift toward easing tensions could cool rate momentum, forcing these companies to give back their recent gains.

Chumps: Luxury brands

The Middle East is a key market for high-end goods, and prolonged instability can lower consumer confidence, creating headwinds for luxury brands. That pressure comes on top of ongoing weakness in China, where many luxury houses are still struggling to return sales growth to positive territory.

“If people don’t go back to normal, and we have more issues when it comes to sourcing oil and gas from the Gulf, then the probability of a recession globally could be increasing, and that would definitely dampen discretionary sectors like luxury,” Bernstein analyst Luca Solca told CNBC.

Shares of LVMH fell 2.82%, Kering dropped 6.81%, Burberry declined 2.14%, and Richemont, owner of Cartier, slid 2.84% this afternoon.

While luxury stocks tumbled, Morningstar analyst Jelena Sokolova said her team is keeping its fair value estimates unchanged. She says companies’ revenue exposure to the Middle East is limited and the disruption is likely temporary, rather than a lasting blow to their fundamentals.

From tankers to tote bags, the market is diverging for now. But the longer this conflict drags on, the more the economic strain spreads, and today’s winners could find themselves dragged down with everyone else.—SY

🟢 What’s up

• Best Buy rose 7.08% after beating fourth-quarter earnings expectations, even as revenue came in below Wall Street forecasts.
• Target gained 6.74% despite another quarter of declining revenue and store traffic, as investors focused on an earnings beat and signs its sales slump may be nearing an end.
• AeroVironment rallied 9.59% after confirming it remains in discussions with the US SCAR program, rebounding from the prior session’s drop.
• Digital media company Ziff Davis jumped 48.02% after agreeing to sell its connectivity division, including Speedtest and Downdetector, to Accenture for $1.2 billion.
• Kontoor Brands climbed 20.68% after topping fourth-quarter earnings and revenue estimates, and issuing full-year guidance that came in above expectations.
• Plug Power surged 23.2% following a strong fourth quarter.

What’s down

• MongoDB fell 22.24% after issuing first-quarter earnings guidance below Wall Street expectations.
• AutoZone dropped 6.2% after quarterly sales missed estimates and same-store sales growth came in below forecasts.
• Surgery Partners slid 12.34% after posting weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter adjusted earnings and issuing soft guidance for 2026.
• On Holding declined 6.09% despite reporting record 2025 sales, as investors focused on weaker-than-expected forward guidance.
• Credo Technology tumbled 14.81% after forecasting fourth-quarter gross margins slightly below consensus expectations.
• Archer Aviation sank 10.64% after earnings revealed higher-than-anticipated spending early this year.

Elliott Investment Management has a new idea pinned to its board: Pinterest.

The hungriest activist investor on the market unveiled a $1 billion investment in Pinterest, money that the image-focused social media site will use to help fund a $3.5 billion share buyback program.

It’s great news for Pinterest, which has had nothing but negativity to report lately. In January, the company announced plans to lay off nearly 15% of its workforce and scale back on office space as it refocused its efforts on AI. Then in February, the stock sank almost 17% the day it announced fourth-quarter earnings, after revealing a shocking 85% decline in net income. The problem was tariffs: retailers who advertise on the platform had cut their spending in order to contend with rising tariff-related costs, hurting Pinterest’s bottom line.

Now, Pinterest is pinning its hopes on AI. The company wants to use the technology to show more personalized content to users, create automated tools for advertisers to spur more spending, and turn the platform into “an AI-powered shopping assistant for 600 million customers,” according to CEO Bill Ready.

Elliott clearly likes the idea: The activist investor has held a 9% stake in Pinterest since 2022, and today’s news is the latest sign that Elliott believes Pinterest has what it takes to succeed. Investors are starting to warm up to the idea as well: Shares popped 9.25% today.—MR

Oil prices have popped for a second day in a row as investors gauge the fallout from a slew of oil supply chains suddenly being thrust into a warzone. But today, all eyes are on LNG (liquefied natural gas).

While Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz grabbed headlines, Qatar, one of the largest LNG producers in the world, also paused production yesterday—triggering a 19% reduction in global LNG supply in one fell swoop, according to Goldman Sachs.

The fallout

Obviously, the disruption of LNG supply will directly spike electricity prices across the world. The energy crisis in Europe could be particularly devastating, given 25% of Europe’s total gas supply is LNG. Across the pond, however, the US is in a far better position, since it’s the largest exporter of natural gas globally.

As investors are still trying to figure out how the dust will settle on all this LNG turmoil, some under-the-radar stocks are surging. One is Venture Global, the Virginia-based natural gas shipper, which has surged over 23% in the last five days. Then there’s Cheniere Energy, the largest producer and exporter of LNG in the US, which jumped 11.43% over the last week.

Buy the dip, not the pop: While analysts are still bullish on these stocks, energy stocks were already among the best performing and most overvalued this year before the war broke out, according to Morgan Stanley equity analyst Devin McDermott. With how much these names have popped today, there could be some pullback as investors take profits.

The bottom line? The volatility won’t be slowing down anytime soon. “While we think history is a helpful guide in how this might ultimately play out, there is still a lot of uncertainty around how the regional conflict will progress over the coming days and weeks,” warned McDermott.—LB

• Kalshi is creating event contracts focused on luxury watches, as prediction markets look to expand into betting on consumer goods.
• JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned that inflation may soon become “the skunk at the party.”
• Iraq began reducing oil production, with excess supply piling up now that the Strait of Hormuz is closed.
• Hedge funds are second-guessing their emerging-markets plays after conflict erupted in the Middle East.
• Drone attacks in the UAE and Bahrain damaged three Amazon data centers.
• President Trump vowed to “cut off all trade” with Spain after the nation said it wouldn’t let the US use its bases in the conflict with Iran.
• Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has volunteered to testify before the House Oversight Committee about his ties to Jefferey Epstein.
• Soros Fund Management Chief Investment Officer Dawn Fitzpatrick says investors are in for a “painful” 18 to 24 months because of…well, everything.

Alondra Garcia, CFA and Portfolio Manager at Ellevest, is joining us at Eyes on Her to talk strategy that actually reflect the investor behind the account. From building resilient portfolios to navigating emerging sectors and AI-driven shifts, Alondra brings real-world insight for women who are done playing small with their money. And if you’re ready to go beyond the event, Ellevest is offering you a complimentary call with their team: https://calendly.com/d/cvdm-k7j-cq9

Economic reports: While investors are worrying about how rising energy prices could spur higher inflation, the other half of the Fed’s mandate will take the spotlight tomorrow when ADP drops its private payroll report. Speaking of the Fed, the central bank will release its Beige Book, and we’ll also get the S&P final US services PMI.

Earnings announcements: Broadcom, Abercrombie & Fitch, Foot Locker, Bath & Body Works, Rigetti Computing, American Eagle Outfitters, Okta, and StubHub