• Stocks: Indexes ended a rough week on a low note as investors rotated out of tech, with the previously red-hot PHLX Semiconductor Index suddenly in bear market territory. Then again, some pros think that investors’ interest in other parts of the market could help fuel the next leg of the rally.
• Commodities: Crude oil climbed as the US and Iran continued to trade blows, with Kuwait bearing the brunt of recent Iranian attacks. Meanwhile, gold gained when traders realized that the commodity is starting to look cheap.

Tech

Morning Brew Inc.

Dynasties don’t last forever. Just ask the Patriots. Or as of today, Nvidia.

Roughly a year after surpassing Microsoft to become the world’s most valuable company, Nvidia has lost its crown. Apple briefly claimed the top spot today before Nvidia snagged it back in the final moments of the trading session, but its temporary claim to the top spot capped off a remarkable run that’s lifted its shares 22.76% this year—the best performance among the Magnificent Seven.

As we discussed on Monday, investors have plenty of reasons to be optimistic: Apple is gearing up to launch its long-awaited foldable iPhone this September, and yesterday it cleared another hurdle in China after being added to the country’s list of approved generative AI providers. But perhaps Apple’s biggest advantage is what it isn’t doing: spending tens of billions of dollars in the AI arms race.

That was enough for HSBC to upgrade Apple from Hold to Buy today. The bank noted that Apple’s expected to invest just 2.5% of its estimated 2026 sales on AI, compared with 39% on average from the major hyperscalers. Instead, Apple is focused on rolling out a smarter Siri and new AI features alongside its upcoming hardware lineup, which HSBC says could spark a major iPhone upgrade cycle.

But not everyone is convinced. Just over 60% of analysts rate Apple a Buy—well below the roughly 90% who remain bullish on Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Nvidia.

Nvidia’s nosedive

Nvidia, on the other hand, has risen just 8.75% this year as investors question how long the industry’s massive infrastructure spending spree can continue. IBM recently blamed weaker-than-expected results on customers shifting budgets toward memory produced by companies like Micron and Sandisk, which have gained 197.45% and 470.74% this year, respectively. Now, Nvidia appears to be feeling the effects of the same rotation.

The pressure mounted today after Chinese startup Moonshot AI unveiled what it called the world’s largest open-source AI model, claiming it outperformed OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 and Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.8 on several coding and agent benchmarks. The announcement dragged AI stocks lower, and Nvidia fell 2.21% along with them.

Apple, meanwhile, remained largely flat for the day. Investors increasingly see it as a company that profits from AI rather than spends on it, highlighting how the AI trade is evolving from chips and infrastructure to the consumer products built on top of them. Now investors will just have to see if Apple can make a Siri that doesn’t accidentally FaceTime your ex instead of your mom.—SY

      

Sponsored By Money Pickle

Money Pickle would like to see you worry less about retirement. Having a retirement plan could help with that, even if you’re not a worrier.

As an SEC-registered advisory firm that connects you with vetted fiduciary financial advisors who are legally bound to put your interests first, Money Pickle offers straightforward guidance on retirement income, Social Security timing, Roth IRAs, and tax strategy.

Your first intro conversation costs nothing and carries zero obligation. Just answer a few questions, pick a slot that works, and get matched with someone who can pressure-test your current approach.

Whether you’re 48 and rethinking your timeline or 67 and wondering if you’ve done enough, clarity beats anxiety every time.

Ready to talk money without the sales pressure? Book now and see what a real second opinion looks like.

Stocks

🟢 What’s up

• The Travelers Companies surged 9.22% after lower catastrophe losses and higher investment income fueled a blowout second quarter.
• Nebius Group gained 3.46% after securing $775 million in debt financing to support its AI expansion.
• Food supply chain company Sadot Group jumped 77.54% after settling a lawsuit with Helena Global, removing a key financing overhang.
• BJ’s Restaurants climbed 8.04% following a William Blair upgrade on improving sales momentum.
• Fervo Energy rose 6.66% after Bank of America upgraded the stock, citing an attractive valuation following its recent pullback.

🔴 What’s down

• Netflix slipped 7.26% as investors looked past in-line second-quarter results and were disappointed by its earnings forecast.
• GSK fell 1.91% after scrapping development of its chronic-cough drug camlipixant.
• Intuitive Surgical dropped 14.15% as concerns over slowing US demand for its Da Vinci surgical systems overshadowed an earnings beat.
• Alcoa fell 6.17% after cutting its 2026 alumina production outlook despite beating second-quarter expectations.
• Fifth Third Bancorp slipped 2.29% despite strong growth in net interest income, with investors focusing on a slight earnings miss.
• Alphabet declined 2.17%, extending its recent slide amid reports that Google remains behind schedule on its latest Gemini AI model.

Stock of the day

Should you buy the outbreak-induced food dip?

Morning Brew Inc.

It’s amazing what explosive diarrhea can do to a restaurant stock.

Shares of Taco Bell owner Yum! Brands, salad chain Sweetgreen, and Mediterranean lunch spot Cava all tumbled earlier this week as investors worried that any one of them could be the source of the cyclosporiasis outbreak sweeping the country. Only now that the CDC has traced the bug’s source to a single iceberg lettuce supplier serving Taco Bells in five Midwestern states can food service stocks breathe a sigh of relief. Sweetgreen shot up today by 13.55%, while Cava climbed 1.13%.

As for The Bell itself? After cutting the offending lettuce supplier loose and pulling nearly everything green from its menu, even the patient-zero restaurant ended down just 2.75% for the day, though the full week’s damage is steeper, at 9.55%. Still, by and large, it looks like we’re all back out to lunch again, blissfully munching our cheesy chalupas without a worry in the world. Meanwhile, investors’ appetite for food-related firms has bounced back big-time, too.

What gives? Chalk up this miraculous recovery to the old adage “buy the rumor, sell the news,” only in reverse. Investors and diners dumped all things lettuce-related based on hearsay, but once the facts emerged and a scapegoat was found, everyone stopped freaking out. We’re back to business lunch as usual.

Take this in your to-go bag: Food-safety scares are historically a fantastic buying opportunity for consumer-facing food stocks. Panic may tank the price short term, but once the outbreak clears, buyers who took a bite when shares were low can consume a tidy profit. Think of it as buying the dip, salsa con queso-style.—JD

Sponsored By New York Life

Protection and growth in one strategy. Seriously. Growing your money isn’t enough—your financial strategy also needs to protect you against whatever life might throw your way. New York Life builds strategies that protect against risks and provide flexibility. Think of it like a car built for both performance and safety. See how.

IPOs

Morning Brew Inc.

SpaceX is already giving investors buyer’s remorse.

Elon Musk’s golden child fell 5.43% today after the company called off a test flight for its highly anticipated Starship rocket at the last minute Thursday night. Today’s decline caps six straight days of losses for SpaceX—putting it well below its IPO price of $135, and roughly 38% below its June peak.

SpaceX raised $85.7 billion in the biggest IPO in history back in June, as investors who’ve long been fans of Musk’s intergalactic vision finally got a chance to own the stock itself. Retail investors weren’t the only ones glazing SpaceX, either: Wall Street pros have been resoundingly bullish, with 14 out of 15 firms that cover the stock issuing a Buy rating.

Yet now, everyone is waiting to see if SpaceX can meet the high bar investors have set for it. After all, with a record-breaking valuation, SpaceX has been running more on hype than on actual proven financial results.

Shoot for the stars

This isn’t the first time Starship flopped: Back in May, the rocket crashed in the Gulf of Mexico, triggering an investigation from the FAA.

While Musk has promised grandiose visions of datacenters floating through the cosmos, the core of his business is actually getting rockets into space in the first place. According to Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, Starship is the “essential layer” for SpaceX’s success.

“The new models for its Starship fleet not only reduce the cost per launch, but can also carry a larger number of Starlink satellites on its wings, making it an incremental driver of its highly profitable broadband connectivity business,” explained Ives in a note initiating coverage of the stock.

The bears are bearing

With a stock as hyped up as SpaceX, of course there’s going to be haters: Roughly 110 million shares of SpaceX were borrowed and sold by short sellers, representing roughly 17% of available shares, Barron’s reported.

The ‘I told you so’s’ might be onto something: Historically, nearly half of large IPOs are below their IPO price by their third year of trading. On top of that, one expected boon for the company—a merger with Tesla—probably won’t happen anytime soon.

But there’s good news looking at the historical record, too. Some IPOs that flounder in their first years going public end up being hugely successful. Just look at Meta Platforms: The social media network plateaued in its first few months of trading, but has climbed over 1,700% since going public.

Whether this journey makes it to the moon or crashes and burns is still anyone’s guess.—LB

      

News

• IBM may have just killed the AI trade. Here’s what went wrong during Big Blue’s disastrous second quarter.
• ConocoPhillips agreed to buy a 42% stake in an Iraqi unit from BP.
• Consumer sentiment is rebounding, thanks to easing gas prices.
• Meta Platforms is in talks to lease computing power to Anthropic in a deal worth up to $10 billion.
• Here’s how Chinese crime rings have stolen billions from banks through app fraud and tap-to-pay schemes.
• President Trump’s speech last night about the 2020 election could be bad for markets.

Calendar

Monday: Ryanair, Domino’s Pizza, and AMC Entertainment kick off a humongous week of earnings announcements. As for economic reports, it’s far quieter: There’s nothing of particular interest for the next few days.

Tuesday: Earnings continue from Novartis, Charles Schwab, Interactive Brokers, Capital One, General Motors, D.R. Horton, MSCI, and Halliburton to keep the good times rolling.

Wednesday: The first batch of Mag 7 numbers arrive from Alphabet and Tesla. We’ll also hear from Philip Morris International, GE Vernova, IBM, Texas Instruments, AT&T, ServiceNow, CSX, CME Group, Moody’s, and Southwest Airlines.

Thursday: The hits keep coming with reports from Intel, SK Hynix, RTX, T-Mobile US, Thermo Fisher Scientific, SAP, Union Pacific, Blackstone, BNP Paribas, Lockheed Martin, Newmont, Freeport-McMoRan, Comcast, Honeywell, Digital Realty Trust, American Airlines, Nasdaq, Dow Chemical, and Nokia. As for economic highlights, keep an eye on weekly initial jobless claims.

Friday: A wild week concludes with American Express, NextEra Energy, Verizon Communications, HCA Healthcare, SLB. And we’ve got both the US flash manufacturing and services PMI reports, as well as a look at new home sales.

recs

🤖 Semiconductor stocks are taking a beating, but here’s one AI-adjacent industry that Wall Street says is primed for strong growth in the coming years—and 20 stocks set to pop.

😮 A shifting AI trade has sent these 18 stocks plummeting at least 30% in July—but seven of them are still up by triple digits this year.

😱 It happens to the best of us: What do you do when your investment thesis is wrong?

🧠 Google’s search results are filled with AI responses, but what happens to the human brain when it’s spoon-fed every answer?

⚽ We started today’s edition with soccer, so let’s end it there: Will America’s MLS ever reach the same level as the NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB?

^{*A message from our sponsor.}