Skip to main content
UAE dumps OPEC
To:Brew Readers
Brew Markets // Morning Brew // Update
Plus, OpenAI's spillover selloff.

Good afternoon. One of the secrets to Warren Buffett’s success is his habit of reading “the fine print of capitalism,” aka the footnotes of earnings reports where companies often bury important details.

He’d probably love this: The Information recently reported that management teams of publicly traded software companies like Figma, HubSpot, and Workday are touting advances in AI as tailwinds for their businesses, downplaying fears of an SaaS apocalypse. Yet if you take a peek at their financial filings, all three added AI agents to the competitive risks sections of their documents last quarter.

Just something to keep in mind as software CEOs force a smile on earnings calls this week and promise that everything is totally fine.

Lucy Brewster, Sissy Yan & Mark Reeth

In today’s newsletter, we’ll take a look at:

  • OpenAI’s IPO woes
  • What to watch in Mag 7 earnings
  • Why OPEC just lost a key member

MARKETS

Nasdaq

24,663.80

S&P

7,138.80

Dow

49,141.93

10-Year

4.354%

Bitcoin

$76,352.64

Oil

$99.86

Data is provided by

*Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 4:00pm ET. Here's what these numbers mean.

  • Stocks: After a series of record-high closes, both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were dragged lower by tech woes after a scathing report about OpenAI’s finances (more on that in a moment).
  • Commodities: Brent crude popped and WTI temporarily rose above $100 per barrel on reports that President Trump doesn’t like Iran’s peace proposal. Gold tumbled as investors turned their attention to tomorrow’s interest rate decision from the Fed.
 

TECH

Sam Altman looking sad

Morning Brew Design, Photo: Sean Gallup/Getty Images

OpenAI might as well be a hot new reality TV show, because the tech disruptor just can't seem to stay away from the drama.

Yesterday, the ChatGPT maker dominated headlines with some rapid-fire announcements. Today it’s back in the spotlight, but with news that’s not so great: According to The Wall Street Journal, the company missed internal revenue and user growth targets, and despite raising $122 billion in the largest funding round in Silicon Valley history, CFO Sarah Friar has warned leadership that future computing commitments could become difficult to fund without stronger revenue growth.

Now, the $850 billion startup is dragging down other tech stocks, after a roughly $600 billion dealmaking spree last year that locked the company into massive long-term spending commitments.

Here are a few names falling victim to the spillover:

  • Chipmakers Nvidia, Broadcom, and AMD all fell—1.63%, 4.39%, and 3.37%, respectively
  • Oracle, which has a $300-billion, five-year partnership with OpenAI, dropped 4.02%
  • Qualcomm, which just yesterday announced a partnership with OpenAI to develop smartphone processing chips, lost just 0.17%
  • CoreWeave, fresh off an $11.9-billion contract with OpenAI, sank 5.79%
  • One of OpenAI’s largest investors, SoftBank, tumbled 11.77%

The plot thickens

The domino effect underscores just how much OpenAI’s performance matters in the complex web of tech, with deals spanning everything from chipmakers to cloud providers.

In its defense, the company is now signaling a more measured approach to spending: OpenAI has paused a UK project, Microsoft has taken over data center capacity in Norway that was originally earmarked for OpenAI, and Oracle and OpenAI dropped plans to expand a major Texas data center after financing talks stalled, according to Bloomberg.

But even with that shift, Friar has raised concerns about pushing ahead with a year-end IPO, warning that the company isn’t yet ready for public-market reporting standards. CEO Sam Altman, meanwhile, is said to favor a faster path to listing.

Either way, OpenAI might want to wrap up the season finale soon, because while Friar and Altman clash over the script, the rest of the tech sector is stuck watching the drama play out.—SY

Sponsored By YieldMax ETFs

STOCKS

The biggest winners and losers on the stock market today

            

🟢 What’s up

  • Coca-Cola rose 3.86% as stronger beverage demand drove an earnings and revenue beat, prompting the company to lift its full-year outlook.
  • BP gained just 0.83% after “exceptional” oil trading helped deliver stronger-than-expected earnings amid surging fossil fuel prices.
  • JetBlue climbed 1.21% as investors looked past a wider loss and focused on capacity cuts aimed at offsetting higher fuel costs.
  • Revolution Medicines jumped 9.99% after its pancreatic cancer drug nearly doubled survival rates in a late-stage trial, with FDA approval potentially coming this year.
  • Centene advanced 13.95% as revenue grew 7.1% year over year and management raised full-year guidance.
  • Sanmina surged 14.56% on strong guidance and a newly authorized $600 million share buyback plan.

What’s down

STOCKS OF THE DAY

Close up crops of the Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft logos

Morning Brew

It’s the biggest week of earnings this quarter, thanks to reports from some of the most important companies on the market: Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Amazon, and Microsoft make their announcements after the bell tomorrow, while Apple brings up the rear on Thursday.

Those five companies have a combined market cap of about $16 trillion, and account for roughly 25% of the entire S&P 500—so it’s not hyperbole to say that this is a make-or-break moment for the entire market. Here’s a few key things you should keep an eye out for in each announcement:

Alphabet: The Google parent company has recently emerged as one of the top picks of the AI trade, helping it become the best performer of the Mag 7 over the last 12 months. Listen for how Alphabet plans to capitalize on its growing tensor processing unit (TPU) business, and whether or not its massive investments in cloud computing are paying off.

Meta Platforms: Mark Zuckerberg is looking a little lost these days, relying on layoffs to buoy Meta’s bottom line. The new Muse Spark LLM has caught some attention, but shareholders will want to know what’s next after Meta’s acquisition of Manus fell through. Most importantly, they’ll want to see that the company’s advertising business is holding up well.

Amazon: The four companies reporting on Thursday plan to spend up to $650 billion on AI this year, and Amazon accounts for $200 billion of that. Analysts will want to see some bang for those big bucks, though the important question may be far more mundane than new tech: How are rising fuel costs hurting its core shipping business?

Microsoft: The Windows maker is the worst performer of this group in 2026, so the pressure is on to prove that last quarter’s lackluster Azure cloud growth is behind it. Listen for management to explain how it plans to defend its enterprise software business from AI encroachment.

Apple: All eyes are on incoming CEO John Ternus and his plans for incorporating AI into Apple tech. The new guy is responsible for Apple’s successful launch of the Macbook Neo, so hopes are high that he’s got some big ideas to lead the tech titan into the future.—MR

MACRO

An oil rig at sea

Anton Petrus/Getty Images

If you were heartbroken about Jane’s Addiction splitting up a few months ago, just wait until you hear this: The United Arab Emirates is leaving the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as well as OPEC+ on May 1.

The bombshell announcement comes at an already tense moment for the global oil cartel: The partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted supply, handicapped the group’s major producers, and caused friction among the nations.

In a written statement, the UAE’s Energy Ministry said the decision followed a “comprehensive review” and was in the national interest.

What’s really going on?

The UAE’s move is fundamentally about control. OPEC produces 40% of the world’s oil, and the UAE makes up over 12% of OPEC’s global supply as is its third-largest producer. But the nation has long been frustrated by its quota: The UAE has the capacity to pump about 4.8 million barrels per day, but can only produce 3.4 million under OPEC’s rules. Unencumbered by OPEC, the country can move towards its stated goal of producing 5 million barrels per day by 2027.

This triggers an existential crisis for OPEC. Its control rests on coordination among the world’s largest oil producers to agree on quotas. The UAE’s exit will make it more challenging for the cartel to set prices and manage supply.

Why now?

The exit is not purely money-math—geopolitics plays a huge part, too. The UAE’s decision follows missile and drone attacks from Iran, a fellow OPEC member. Saudi Arabia, which dominates OPEC, has evolved from an ally of the UAE into a rival. And according to the UAE’s Energy Ministry, the Iran war created the perfect moment to leave, because nations are already slashing production due to the closure of the Strait.

Another factor: The country has a geographical advantage. Because of where the UAE sits, it can export about half of its oil overland, making it less reliant on the Strait than other OPEC members. Once the nation is independent of OPEC, it can focus on expanding alternative export routes such as pipelines, according to the WSJ.

What this means for oil prices

In the short term, the move likely won’t make the oil shock from the war worse than it is already, because the OPEC nations are already cutting supply due to the closure of the Strait. And while in theory prices should drop once the UAE starts pumping more oil, it’s not that simple: Analysts still expect prices to keep rising as the war drags on.

Looking down the pipeline, this seriously further weakens OPEC, which had already seen its control of crude diminish as the US became a major oil producer.

“It’s the hardest blow ever,” Homayoun Falakshahi, a senior oil analyst at commodities data company Kpler, told the WSJ. “It raises the question about whether OPEC can survive.”—LB

Together With CME Group

NEWS

Around the market

              

  • 80% of the money backing Bill Ackman’s IPO is from institutional investors, despite him trying to win over the retail crowd with his social media stardom.
  • Post-merger, Warner Bros. and Paramount will be roughly 50% foreign-owned.
  • If you’re losing money on Polymarket, you’re not the only one. It turns out most of the profits are going to bots.
  • Another bleak warning from our old friend Jamie Dimon: This time, he’s predicting a bond crisis.
  • A new data center being built in Utah will consume and generate more than twice the amount of power currently used by the entire state.
  • A record 55% of Americans say their financial situation is getting worse.

The market’s closed. The money decisions aren’t. Money Unplugged explores how people actually think about money—risk, discipline, and life beyond the portfolio.

CALENDAR

What is happening in the world of finance tomorrow

         

Economic reports: Durable goods orders, as well as a report on housing starts and building permits, are the readings to watch. But honestly, all eyes will be on the Fed as it wraps up its two-day meeting and Jerome Powell announces what may well be his final interest rate decision as Fed Chair.

Earnings announcements: As you already know, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta will drop their latest quarterly numbers tomorrow afternoon. They’ll be joined by AbbVie, AstraZeneca, KLA, Amphenol, Qualcomm, UBS, GSK, Carvana, Automatic Data Processing, Mercedes-Benz, Ford, Old Dominion Freight Line, eBay, Porsche, Universal Music Group, and Adidas.

RECS

Reading material

        

💲 These three stocks suddenly look cheap after earnings, so buy them before their discounts disappear.

Building a portfolio for the first time? Here are some best practices—including which asset classes to keep and which to skip, why international stocks are smart picks, and how to use ETFs.

Single-stock ETFs are all the rage these days, but how are they actually performing? Spoiler alert: not great.

Speaking of ETFs, here are two strategies for people who are afraid of the stock market.

If Mag 7 companies nail their earnings reports this week, the tech rally will continue unabated, and Barclays says these 21 stocks will pop.

Turn chip volatility into cash flow: Potential weekly payouts through options-powered income thanks to chip volatility. CHPY diversifies across 15–30 names. Your portfolio doesn’t want to swim; it wants to surf. Ride the wave.*

*A message from our sponsor.

SHARE THE BREW

Referrals Get Rewarded

Share the Brew, watch your referral count climb, and unlock brag-worthy swag.

Your friends get smarter. You get rewarded. Win-win.

Your referral count: 5

Click to Share

Or copy & paste your referral link to others:
brewmarkets.com/r/?kid=9ec4d467

   
ADVERTISE // CAREERS // SHOP // FAQ

Update your email preferences or unsubscribe here.
View our privacy policy here.

Copyright © 2026 Morning Brew Inc. All rights reserved.
22 W 19th St, 4th Floor, New York, NY 10011

Making sense of market moves

Stay up to date on the latest market news with daily analysis of the investing landscape, served up Brew-style.

By subscribing, you accept our Terms & Privacy Policy.

A mobile phone scrolling a newsletter issue of Brew Markets