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*Stock data as of market close.
Here's what these numbers mean.
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- Indexes were dragged lower by a hot CPI reading earlier this week, but the power of love (and delayed tariffs) helped them climb over the last five days. But only the Nasdaq was able to find its way into positive territory on the final day of the week.
- Gold’s record rally took a breather as traders took profits, while oil faltered on hopes of a possible peace deal between Russia and Ukraine.
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COMMODITIES
Here’s one reason to be glad you’re single this Valentine’s Day: Chocolate is pricier than ever.
“If you haven’t done your Valentine’s Day shopping yet, brace yourself for some sticker shock when picking out chocolate,” wrote chief technical strategist for LPL Financial Adam Turnquist in a note today. “Cocoa, a key ingredient in chocolate, surged 166% last year due to adverse weather conditions in West Africa, which accounts for around 80% of the global cocoa supply, according to Bloomberg.”
Cocoa was the best-performing commodity on the market last year, and now shoppers are paying the price: The cost of a king-size two-pack of Reese’s Hearts jumped 13% year over year in February, while the price of a 10.8 oz pack of milk chocolate Hershey Kisses has risen 12% since last January.
The rising cost of this commodity is partly why Hershey reported a drop in earnings last quarter, even after hiking the prices of candy in checkout lanes.
Don’t expect the holiday section of CVS to get cheaper anytime soon. The weather conditions that created the cocoa shortage haven’t let up—and on top of that, many manufacturers purchase cocoa roughly a year in advance, so chocolate could get even more expensive next year to reflect current prices.
“Despite hopes for a better crop in the 2024/2025 season, cacao prices look set to remain high,” wrote JPMorgan agricultural commodities strategist in a note. “This could in turn impact the chocolate market, with confectionary prices likely to increase in 2025.
Broken chocolate hearts
Now, we’re not here to give relationship advice—but if you’re considering using skyrocketing cocoa prices as an excuse to skip getting your significant other a gift this holiday, think again. According to the National Confectioners Association, 92% of people said they would love to receive chocolate or candy for Valentine’s Day, so get ready to open up your wallet for your significant other.
And don’t even get us started on Easter—the combination of rising chocolate prices and record-breaking egg prices spells trouble for anyone hoping for a full Easter basket this April.—LB
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STOCKS
🟢 What’s up
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Buy the rumor, sell the news: Reports that GameStop is planning to invest in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies propelled the meme stock 2.62% higher.
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Airbnb soared 14.45% in its best single day of trading ever after the online rental platform announced better-than-expected earnings.
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DraftKings stayed kings after the gambling site touted strong fiscal year guidance that offset a larger loss than Wall Street expected last quarter. Shares rose 15.16%.
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Speaking of gambling, Wynn Resorts climbed 10.38% after the casino operator absolutely crushed earnings forecasts.
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Nvidia revealed a $25 million stake in Chinese self-driving tech company WeRide, pushing shares 83.46% higher today.
What’s down
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Coinbase reported a whopping 130% increase in revenue last quarter, but shares of the crypto trading platform still slid 7.98% on worries that the good times won’t last.
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Informatica plummeted 21.53% after the cloud data company missed revenue expectations last quarter and revealed low earnings forecasts for the coming year.
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Twilio beat revenue forecasts but missed on its bottom line, and investors pushed shares of the cloud communications company down 15.01% as punishment.
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Dialysis provider DaVita dropped 11.09% on a one-two punch today: earnings estimates disappointed, and Berkshire Hathaway dumped shares.
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Applied Materials beat expectations, but the chip maker sank 8.18% anyway following weak guidance, with management citing, what else, tariffs.
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STAT OF THE DAY
Three little words everyone wants to hear today: I love you.
Three little words no CEO wants to hear ever: Tariffs are coming.
Management teams are mentioning the t-word more frequently than your significant other has mentioned they don’t need anything nice for Valentine’s Day this year.
50% of the companies on the S&P 500 that have announced earnings through the end of last week have mentioned the word “tariffs”, according to FactSet.
That’s 146 companies total, and it’s getting close to the record for most companies talking tariffs (185), a record set way back in the second quarter of 2018 when President Trump first kicked off a trade war against China. Fears that tariffs will ratchet up inflation have only been exacerbated by a hot CPI reading earlier this week, and with a good chunk of earnings still to come, tariffs will almost certainly remain the hottest topic of the season.
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QUARTERLY REPORTS
Roku jumped 14.14% today to a new 52-week high after the streaming service revealed that it added four million new streaming households last quarter, and is on its way to hitting 100 million total streamers within the next 12 months. “We’re the No.1 streaming operating system in the country and in most of the Americas by a wide margin,” CEO Anthony Wood told CNBC.
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EPS: A $0.24 loss, beating expectations of a $0.40 loss
- Revenue: $1.2 billion, higher than the $1.14 billion expected
Moderna shares popped 3.35% today after the pharma giant reported a mixed-bag quarter. The company has been suffering from an ongoing slowdown as demand has waned for its Covid-19 vaccine: It posted a net loss of $1.12 billion, a steep decline from the $217 million it earned a year earlier.
- EPS: $2.91 loss, compared to a projected loss of $2.68
- Revenue: $966 million, higher than the $942.8 million analysts expected
Sony rose 4.14% today after it upped its forward-looking guidance, telling investors it now expects full-year sales to hit 13.2 trillion yen, a 4% increase from its prior guidance. The electronics giant also said its customers love to game: Sony sold 9.4 million units of its PlayStation 5 console last quarter, up from 8.2 million in the same period last year, driving a 37% jump in quarterly profit in its gaming unit.—LB
- EPS: $0.41 (61.82 yen), beating estimates of $0.30
- Revenue: $28.6 billion (4.41 trillion yen), higher than expectations of $24.8 billion
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CALENDAR
It’s been a long week—heck, it’s been a long year and we’re only halfway through February—but thankfully US investors get a long weekend due to President’s Day on Monday.
It’s back to business on Tuesday with the Homebuilder’s Confidence Index, then it’s more real estate with the housing starts and building permits reports on Wednesday. After that, it’s the usual initial jobless claims report on Thursday, as well as a look at US leading economic indicators, and the week wraps with existing home sales and flash PMI readings on the service and manufacturing industries.
As for earnings, the crunch continues with a boatload of big names:
Tuesday: Baidu, Medtronic, Occidental Petroleum, Arista Networks, and Devon Energy.
Wednesday: Carvana, Analog Devices, Fiverr International, Wingstop, Imax, NerdWallet, Manchester United, and The Cheesecake Factory.
Thursday: Walmart, Alibaba, Rivian Automotive, Dropbox, Mercado Libre, Wayfair, Unity Software, Bilibili, Cheniere Energy, TripAdvisor, Hasbro, Texas Roadhouse, and Birkenstock.
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