With the war in Iran squeezing global oil supplies, the International Energy Agency has decided to tap 400 million barrels of crude from its emergency reserves—the largest distribution in history.

Crude prices have surged since the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran, which has hit back where it hurts most: targeting oil tankers and laying mines along the Strait of Hormuz. This waterway delivers about one-fifth of the world’s oil supply from regional producers. Now, shipments are in a chokehold, roiling markets.

The IEA, a coalition of 32 countries including the US, made their call shortly after Japan announced it will release an additional 80 million barrels from its own reserves. Analysts estimate that tapping the IEA’s crude stockpile could help tide over the global economy by delivering around 4 to 4.5 million barrels per day for the next two months.

But although this infusion will help stabilize markets, it’s a bit like bringing a six-pack to a frat party, when what you really need is a keg.

The hard math: Around 16 million barrels of oil flowed through the Strait of Hormuz every day before it was closed. Thankfully, it’s not the only way oil gets out—Saudi Arabia is attempting to divert its supply via an overland pipeline to the Red Sea, with capacity to transport up to 7 million barrels per day (bpd).

Still, even if you add this to the IEA’s estimated infusion of 4 to 4.5 million bpd—which JPMorgan thinks will actually be closer to 1.2 million bpd when all is said and done—that leaves the world stuck with a crude supply crunch.

History isn’t on our side, either. The last time the IEA unleashed sizable reserves was in 2022 during Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It was rough going at first: Oil prices spiked as markets worried the IEA’s largess signaled the war was worse than they’d thought (just like what happened today), though prices eventually eased.

Stateside supply

The US will likely supply the lion’s share of the IEA’s crude distribution, but that may be easier said than done: the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) isn’t what it once was.

Like the IEA, we also tapped into our stockpile in 2022, releasing 180 million barrels of crude—or about 1 million bpd—to ease gas prices. The thing is, we never bothered to refill the petroleum piggybank. The SPR currently holds about 416 million barrels—well below its maximum capacity of 727 million. Its drawdown maxes out at 4.4 million bpd, but given its low levels, JPMorgan estimates that any release from this source would fall below the bpd average seen during the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022.

Even if there is enough oil to go around, the impact on prices tends to be more muted than you’d think. The US Treasury estimated that the US release in 2022, combined with IEA aid, helped lower the price of gas by just $0.17 per gallon.

Bottom line: The numbers prove that the IEA can't cover the full loss of oil while the Strait of Hormuz is closed. No matter what happens, there's going to be a shortage, so don’t be surprised if you feel some pain at the pump before your next road trip.—JD

🟢 What’s up

• Oracle jumped 9.17% as strong third-quarter earnings and reassurance that it won’t raise additional debt in 2026 boosted investor confidence.
• Nebius surged 16.15% after Nvidia unveiled a $2 billion investment in the AI cloud firm along with plans to collaborate on AI infrastructure and deployment.
• Papa John's International climbed 19.42% on a takeover proposal from Qatari-backed Irth Capital Management.
• Uber Technologies rose 3.56% as Amazon’s Zoox announced a multiyear partnership to offer robotaxi rides through the Uber app in the US.
• Sable Offshore Corp. popped 15.14% on reports that President Trump plans to use the Defense Production Act to let the company restart drilling off the coast of California.
• Serve Robotics advanced 10.13% thanks to stronger-than-expected results and upbeat 2026 sales guidance.
• Cintas gained 1.05% after agreeing to acquire UniFirst in a deal valuing the smaller uniform supplier at about $5.5 billion.

What’s down

• Campbell's slid 7.05% as weak quarterly results highlighted continued declines in soup and snack sales.
• AeroVironment dropped 6.25% after missing revenue and earnings expectations, and cutting its full-year outlook.
• Safety equipment maker Cadre Holdings fell 13.64% following an earnings report that missed both top and bottom lines.
• Blue Owl Capital fell 4.65%, Ares Management dropped 4.76%, and KKR slipped 3.18% as concerns grew after JPMorgan Chase tightened financing for private credit firms (more on that below).

In the latest twist to ongoing private credit drama, it’s not Blue Owl or BlackRock making headlines: This time, it’s JPMorgan.

In an attempt to reduce exposure to the weakening $1.8 trillion industry, the bank is marking down the value of loans tied to its financing business, where private credit firms borrow against their loan portfolios to boost returns, adding another layer of leverage that can magnify losses if the underlying loans deteriorate. This markdown limits that risk by restricting how much firms can borrow against those loans, and could even require some private credit managers to post additional collateral.

Importantly, JPMorgan didn’t do this because it’s experiencing widespread loan losses—at least not yet. Instead, it reflects falling valuations in some of the underlying companies, particularly in software, where AI disruption fears have pressured business models and growth expectations in recent months.

JPMorgan is the first major bank to make a move like this, which is hardly surprising: CEO Jamie Dimon has been warning about “cockroaches” in the sector since October, and likely wants to protect the company’s $22 billion in loans tied to private credit before the industry falters further. With Wall Street banks holding $300 billion in loans to private credit funds as of June, others may not be so far behind.

With today’s development, the private credit bubble is no longer just a narrative about problems between borrowers and lenders. Banks are now implicated as well, adding a new plotline to the drama.—SY

Just like your new year's resolution to make coffee at home instead of buying it everyday, Meta is trying to wean itself off outside vendors.

Today, Meta announced it’s rolling out four of its own custom AI chips to fuel its rapid data center expansion. The first, MTIA 300, is meant to help train smaller AI models that run Meta’s recommendations on Facebook and Instagram. The next three—MTIA 400, MTIA 450, and MTIA 500—are going to be used for more advanced tasks like creating images and videos based on prompts. A new chip will be released every six months, a shockingly rapid rate that underscores Meta’s growing need for new tech.

Zoom out: By designing its own chips, which are then manufactured by Taiwan Semiconductor, the social media giant can lower its very expensive capex tab, Meta Vice President of Engineering Yee Jiun Song told CNBC.

Meta expects to spend up to $135 billion on AI this year, including opening a massive data center in Louisiana, as well as building more in Ohio, Indiana, and Texas. But part of that spending spree also includes tens of billions of dollars on GPUs, mostly from Nvidia. Homegrown chips can not only reduce costs, but also let Meta optimize chips for specific tasks.

Tech wants to be vertically integrated

As we all know, Nvidia has been dominating the world of AI chips for years. The company controls 92% of the global data center GPU market—and as the reigning king of AI hardware, Nvidia can afford to make its chips expensive, because demand is so strong and Nvidia has all the bargaining power.

Now, big tech companies are trying to gain some leverage by not only creating chips of their own, but building more specialized chips—application-specific integrated circuits designed for narrower tasks that don’t need energy-intensive GPUs:

• Google was early to the party, creating its first Tensor Processing Unit (TSU) in 2015. The Mag 7 company struck a $10 billion deal with Anthropic in December to sell the startup its TPUs, and some analysts think they could grow to become a $900 billion business.
• Amazon created Trainium, its first custom chip, in 2018. Anthropic has since bought millions of dollars worth of the newest version, Trainium 2, which isn’t as powerful as Nvidia’s offerings but is more cost effective.

Rolling out its own chips doesn’t mean Meta has weaned off Nvidia completely though: Just last month Meta inked a series of major deals with Nvidia and AMD to get its hands on new GPUs.

Look, we all need that store-bought caramel macchiato sometimes.—LB

• McDonald’s plans to launch new value meals as low as $3.
• Goldman Sachs says that hedge fund positioning across stocks could trigger an equity rally.
• The US budget deficit just surpassed $1 trillion for the fiscal year to date, 12% lower than last year.
• Target is cutting prices on over 3,000 items in an effort to woo back consumers.
• The DOJ is investigating Iran for using Binance to evade US sanctions.
• Ireland’s prime minister is set to discuss the country’s $6.1 billion of planned investments in the US when visiting the White House this St. Patrick’s Day.

It’s time to check in on our Fantasy Investing League as readers compete to see who can pump out the biggest profits in a single month.

The top of the leaderboard is dominated by two completely different strategies. At the front of the pack is Landon C., who has made an astounding 143 trades in just eight days to double his starting $100,000 into just over $200,000. Investments include a multitude of buying and short-selling on everything from microcap biotech stocks to playing the news cycle with shipping and transportation titans.

In second place we’ve got Kyle H., who has made…one trade. But what a trade it was: Kyle bet big on the Defiance Daily Target 2X Long HIMS ETF at the exact right moment, capitalizing on the detente between Hims & Hers Health and Novo Nordisk to make $87,000 in one fell swoop. Whether you stick with the one-and-done strategy, or prefer to constantly pepper your portfolio with trades, it’s still anybody’s game over at the Fantasy Investing League—so join us for the chance to win prizes, bragging rights, and shoutouts in future editions!—MR

Economic reports: Watch out for weekly initial jobless claims, a look at the US trade deficit for January, and the monthly report on housing starts for February

Earnings announcements: Adobe, Ulta Beauty, Lennar, Dollar General, Li Auto, Dick’s Sporting Goods, and Ollie’s Bargain Outlet