Anyone whose New Year’s resolution was to enjoy some strong investment returns is probably pretty disappointed: The stock market just had an absolutely terrible quarter.

Back in December, investors were optimistic: strong economic growth, expected rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, and easing trade tensions painted a near-perfect backdrop for stocks.

Then January hit. AI disruption fears rattled markets, dragging down software and spilling into sectors like wealth management, data, and cybersecurity. Investors rotated into defensives in the so-called “HALO trade”, fleeing to steady, cash-generating companies and taking the wind out of AI’s sails.

But the real turning point came in late February, with the outbreak of the Iran war and surging oil prices, reigniting fears of stagflation. That, in turn, pushed markets to rethink the Fed’s path toward fewer cuts and tighter policy, raising borrowing costs and weighing on stocks.

Through Monday of this week, 10 of the S&P 500’s 11 sectors are down this month, with losses averaging 8.3%. Energy is the exception: The sector is up 39% this year, on track for its best quarter on record.

But it wasn’t just equities having a tough start to 2026. Here’s how other asset classes fared this quarter:

Bonds

Prior to the conflict, bonds had been rallying as investors rotated into safer assets, stepping back from crowded AI trades.

But just days into the war, that trend reversed sharply, with bonds posting their biggest selloff in nine months as inflation fears surged. Rising prices erode fixed returns and have flipped rate expectations: odds of two cuts from the Federal Reserve this year have dropped from 80% to under 2%, pushing yields higher.

At the same time, the prospect of increased government spending to finance the war, such as the Pentagon’s proposed $200 billion request, adds another layer of pressure. More borrowing means greater Treasury supply and rising concerns about long-term debt levels, prompting investors to demand higher yields to compensate.

Gold

In January, gold surged to record highs, pushing past $5,500. Silver rallied alongside it, driven by geopolitical uncertainty and strong investment demand.

That strength broke from historical norms. Before the war in Ukraine, gold typically moved inversely to real bond yields and the US dollar. But early this quarter, it climbed far beyond what those relationships would suggest.

Now, the latest conflict has helped restore the old pattern. As bond yields and the dollar move higher, gold has resumed its traditional inverse relationship, putting it on track for its worst monthly decline since 2008.

Energy

If there’s one market to watch, it’s oil. The war has triggered one of the biggest supply shocks in history. Crude prices are up over 50% since the start of the conflict, driven by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a key chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil and LNG flows—as well as strikes on major production facilities across the Middle East.

As a result, WTI settled above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022 yesterday—and while stocks rallied today at hints of peace in the Middle East, some analysts think oil could hit $200 per barrel if the conflict doesn’t end soon.

What’s next: It’s been a volatile quarter shaped by AI disruption, geopolitical tensions, and shifting expectations around the Federal Reserve. The result: one quarter, multiple narratives, and no clear winner. The big question now is whether the dust settles, or if the next surprise is already on the way.—SY

🟢 What’s up

• Apellis Pharmaceuticals surged 135.4% after Biogen agreed to acquire the company in a $5.6 billion deal.
• CoreWeave gained 12.03% on securing an $8.5 billion investment-grade term loan backed by compute hardware—an industry first.
• Oracle edged up 5.99% after announcing thousands of layoffs.
• Rocket Lab climbed 11.92% following German approval to acquire laser communications firm Mynaric.
• Snap jumped 14.43% thanks to activist Irenic Capital pushing for strategic changes.
• Symbotic rose 12.21% on a new warehouse automation partnership with Associated Wholesale Grocers.
• Centessa Pharmaceuticals rallied 44.02% after Eli Lilly struck a deal to acquire the company.

What’s down

• Constellation Energy dropped 6.48% as its investor update disappointed, with no new data center deals and softer-than-expected 2026 guidance.
• Unilever slipped 5.02% amid a hiring freeze tied to geopolitical pressures and ongoing talks to merge its food unit with McCormick, which itself sank 6.11%.
• Snowflake fell 1.85% following the surprise departure of its Chief Revenue Officer.

Good news: The AI trade is so back.

At least, that’s how it feels today watching CoreWeave, Broadcom, and other tech stocks climb higher. But the biggest winner of the day is Marvell Technology, which popped 12.8% after Nvidia announced it’s investing $2 billion in the semiconductor company. The strategic partnership means Nvidia will integrate Marvell’s networking technology into its chip-building capabilities, and the two companies will work together creating “silicon photonics technology,” whatever that means.

If a story about Nvidia investing $2 billion in a fellow AI company sounds familiar, it’s understandable—Nvidia shells out a couple billion dollars almost as regularly as we spend a few bucks on our daily iced coffee. In fact, here’s a quick rundown of recent Nvidia deals:

• Nebius Group: Earlier this month, Nvidia provided $2 billion to help build the largest data center in Europe.
• Coherent and Lumentum: At nearly the same time, Nvidia gave each company $2 billion to develop advanced optics technologies like photonics.
• CoreWeave: In January, Nvidia handed over $2 billion to fund construction of “AI factories.”
• Synopsys: And last December, Nvidia invested $2 billion in the chip-design software company to utilize its engineering capabilities.

Seeing the king of the AI trade splurge like this may give investors confidence that tech isn’t dead, but there’s still plenty of doubt about the future of AI. Climbing capex figures have investors worried, datacenter buildouts have become a political flashpoint, and the war in Iran threatens the entire AI ecosystem. No wonder Nvidia is spending like there’s no tomorrow—for the AI trade, there might not be.—MR

Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you know by now that the war with Iran has spiked the price of oil, sent the S&P 500 tumbling, and spooked investors everywhere. But beyond the headline market swings—energy stocks are up, airline and tech stocks are down—there are some lesser-known winners and losers.

Just look at the latest victim of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz: helium. The crisis over your favorite element in the periodic table is ballooning fast.

All roads lead back to AI

Helium is a byproduct of natural gas production, and Qatar is one of the biggest LNG producers in the world—which means it’s also the source of roughly a third of the world’s helium supply. But with the Strait of Hormuz closed and daily attacks hitting Qatari energy facilities, prices of helium have roughly doubled in the last month.

That’s bad news for AI stocks: helium is crucial for cooling AI chipmaking equipment, which makes it a hot commodity for defense companies and chipmakers. It’s particularly bad news for South Korean companies like Samsung and SK Hynix, the two largest memory chipmakers in the world. The country is quickly running out of helium, and while South Korea reportedly has sufficient reserves to last until June, after that, desperation will set in. Samsung sank 5.16% today, while SK Hynix dropped 7.56%.

It’s not just stocks: On the consumer side, one sneaky culprit spiking the prices of everyday goods is the skyrocketing cost of plastic. Since plastic is manufactured with petroleum, the soaring prices of oil could soon make products like water bottles, garbage bags, and plastic utensils more expensive. The rising cost of plastic packaging could end up raising food costs—exacerbating the problem presented by rising fertilizer costs—and don’t forget, plastics are also embedded across industries like healthcare, car manufacturing, construction, and shipping.

Some companies see a silver lining

Accelerating fuel costs and supply chain disruptions sure don’t sound like a recipe for success. But some discount retailers are actually benefitting from the chaos.

Due to higher shipping costs and supply chain disruptions triggered by the war, retailers are receiving shipments too late to sell profitably, and trimming inventory at the same time. That means there are more goods available that retailers no longer want to keep.

Since affordable chains like TJ Maxx, Ross, and Burlington build out their inventory by purchasing items retailers want off their shelves, an increase in unwanted inventory from the bigger chains would allow off-price retailers to buy those items more cheaply, according to a note from Bank of America analyst Lorraine Hutchinson.

Shares of TJ Maxx parent company TJX climbed 2.54% today, while Burlington Stores increased 4.12% and Ross Stores jumped 3.75%.

The bottom line: It’s a great day to be a Maxxinista.—LB

• Warren Buffet has a case of seller’s remorse for Apple, but said he still wouldn’t buy the stock in the current market.
• DoorDash invested in EV startup Also as part of a $200 million Series C financing round.
• Finally, some good news: Consumer confidence surprisingly rose in March.
• Meta is starting to test out a premium subscription model for Instagram.
• If you ever wondered how Jamie Dimon might solve wealth inequality, wonder no more: JPMorgan Chase just unveiled its “American Dream Initiative.”
• Moody’s just rated the first ever bitcoin-backed municipal bond.

Today’s the last day of March, but it’s not the last day to win our month-long Fantasy Investing League.

It’s anybody’s game, with the top three contenders—Aaron A., Jonathan L., and Griffin F.—nearly neck and neck. All three have made their fortunes trading micro-cap stocks like 3 E Network Technology Group, Battalion Oil, and WeShop Holdings, and all three are trading some…colorful insults in the comments section.

Markets remain volatile, and the right move at the right time could still propel anyone to the top spot before the contest ends on Friday. Bragging rights and fabulous prizes await the winner, so join the fun while you still can!

Economic reports: We’ll hear from Fed governor Michael Barr once again, while St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will also speak. Plus, we’ll get a delayed look at February’s US retail sales.

Earnings announcements: All eyes are on eating, with earnings from Cal-Maine Foods, Conagra, and Lamb Weston.

Everything else: NASA’s Artemis II mission will launch if conditions are right. Also we’ve got a double holiday: Tomorrow’s April Fools, and the beginning of Passover.