Jobs reports give investors a snapshot of the health of the broader economy, and a retroactive image of September just emerged—but it’s hard to make out what we’re looking at.

In a pleasant surprise, the government reported today that US payrolls actually grew more than expected back in September: Employment jumped by 119,000 over the month, its steepest increase since April and more than double what economists anticipated.

But job growth wasn’t the only delayed data point we got today that blew past expectations: Unemployment also jumped to 4.4%, its highest rate since October 2021. It didn’t help that revisions to previous reports revealed that the labor market actually lost 4,000 jobs in August instead of gaining 22,000 as originally reported.

Zooming out: The gains in job growth over this year have been uneven, further complicating the labor market picture. Just two sectors, healthcare and hospitality, accounted for 100% of the US job growth in 2025, while cuts are eating into every other industry.

Powell’s complicated puzzle

Once again, our fearless bespectacled leader Jerome Powell is left with more questions than answers.

Since hiring didn’t slow as dramatically as many feared during the shutdown, today’s numbers likely lower the chance of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in December. But while central bankers now have some new data to work with, they’ll be flying blind heading into their next FOMC meeting: The October jobs report has been basically canceled, and the November report will be delayed until after the FOMC meeting on Dec. 9 and 10.

Don’t forget: Inflation hasn’t gone away yet, either.

Markets dropped so sharply today because without another Federal Reserve rate cut, borrowing will stay expensive. That’s bad news for the AI boom, which is increasingly being built on debt, not cash. If the underlying credit supporting the AI economy can’t be paid back, well then…we all can visualize the domino metaphor.

“As we look ahead to 2026, the question is whether the powerful forces of AI, fiscal stimulus, and easing monetary policy can propel global markets beyond the gravity of debt, demographics, and deglobalization, toward a new era of growth,” wrote Chief Investment Officer at UBS Global Wealth Management Mark Haefele in a note today.

As of right now, that question remains unanswered—and investors are starting to get worried.—LB

🟢 What’s up

• Topgolf Callaway Brands is going to have to change its name: The golf company sold a majority stake of its Topgolf brand to a private equity firm for $1.1 billion. Shares rose 3.95%.
• Exact Sciences jumped 16.81% following Abbott Laboratories’s agreement to acquire the at-home colon cancer test maker in a $21 billion deal.
• IBM rose just 0.60% after announcing plans to build a network of quantum computers alongside Cisco, aiming to connect systems over longer distances by the early 2030s.
• Healthcare company PACS Group soared 55.32% despite missing EPS as it beat revenue and sharply raised its outlook.
• Oddity Tech popped 6.49% after the skincare company reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue and raised full-year guidance.
• Regeneron climbed 5.01% after the FDA approved its new drug Eylea HD to treat macular edema.

What’s down

• Bath & Body Works slipped 24.81% after the company missed Q3 estimates and cut its outlook, citing “macro consumer pressures” weighing on demand.
• Palo Alto Networks fell 7.42% despite meeting Q3 expectations and announcing a deal to acquire cybersecurity firm Chronosphere, reflecting broader weak momentum across the software sector.
• Construction and engineering services provider Jacobs Solution declined 10.95% even though it beat on earnings and revenue.
• Strategy sank 5.02% as crypto fell across the board. It doesn’t help that the stock might get booted from index provider MSCI.
• Ford slid 3.8% amid reports of a second fire in two months at a key aluminum plant.

Press releases and earnings calls are usually all facts and no hype, but Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang was downright exuberant when detailing his company’s latest quarter.

“There's been a lot of talk about an AI bubble,” Huang began his portion of the earnings call. “From our vantage point, we see something very different.”

The market needed to hear it. Investors have been fretting about the state of the AI trade for weeks now, worries that have bogged down a rally that saw stocks soar from April lows. But Nvidia’s rock-solid report went a long way toward allaying fears that AI investments are in full-blown bubble territory.

“Blackwell sales are off the charts, and cloud GPUs are sold out,” Huang wrote in the earnings press release. “AI is going everywhere, doing everything, all at once.”

That’s helped put the company on track to meet its sky-high forecast of $500 billion in revenue from Blackwell and Rubin accelerators by the end of next year. Such a lofty goal raised plenty of eyebrows when Huang announced it last month, and only heightened speculation that Nvidia had finally bitten off more than it could chew. But if the company truly is on track, it means the rest of the AI trade hasn’t been derailed just yet.

As for what the future holds? Suffice to say, Huang remains bullish. "We're heading into a 'crazy good' quarter." Investors can only hope it isn’t all talk.—MR

One “big box” retailer is thinking outside the box, and inside the cloud.

Walmart just beat third-quarter earnings and revenue estimates, and management expects full-year sales to grow between 4.8% and 5.1%. Great news across the board helped shares gain 6.47% today.

A big driver of the beat was continued strength across Walmart’s customer base, particularly a 27% surge in global online sales. Even with a small dip tied to reduced SNAP benefits, its everyday-low-price strategy continued to attract value-seeking shoppers and helped it gain market share across income levels.

While a meaningful share of that growth came from more affluent consumers, Walmart’s overall customer behavior has remained relatively steady—unlike the more “K-shaped” trends hurting chains like Sweetgreen and Chipotle.

Tariffs were another key theme this quarter. With roughly a third of its products coming from countries like China, Mexico, and India, Walmart managed those pressures well: Its broader assortment of products lets it raise prices on some items while lowering others, and it adjusted merchandise orders to reduce markdown risk. For example, it has leaned into kids’ items, keeping deeper inventories in categories families continue to prioritize even when budgets are strained.

That helps Walmart stand in contrast to Target, Lowe’s, and Home Depot—all of which cut guidance recently.

From big box to big tech

Walmart’s results came with an unexpected twist: The retail giant is ditching the New York Stock Exchange and shifting its listing to the Nasdaq, the largest departure in NYSE’s history by market cap. The move, framed as part of a more “tech-forward approach,” takes effect Dec. 9, with Walmart keeping its familiar ticker, WMT.

“Walmart is setting a new standard for omnichannel retail by integrating automation and AI to build smarter, faster, and more connected experiences for customers, while enabling our associates to deliver even greater value at scale,” said CFO John David Rainey.

One example of Walmart’s shift into a tech titan is its advertising unit, where global revenue jumped 53% from a year earlier, boosted in part by Vizio, the smart-TV business Walmart bought last year for $2.3 billion. Another is Walmart’s recent partnership with OpenAI, which allows Walmart and Sam’s Club members to reorder groceries directly through ChatGPT.

What’s next?

One thing investors will be watching closely is leadership: John Furner is set to replace 12-year CEO Doug McMillon on Feb. 1. Furner is expected to continue Walmart’s push into digital and e-commerce, with an even sharper focus on AI as the company’s next growth driver.

The other near-term focus is the holiday season. Combined with Walmart’s growing emphasis on tech and value, its holiday performance will be closely watched as a key barometer for consumer health.—SY

• Bubble talk: Famed investor Ray Dalio said we are definitely in an AI bubble—but here’s why you shouldn’t sell.
• Google just announced its latest AI image generation tool, and yes, it is called Nano Banana Pro.
• Retirement account balances hit a record high in Q3 thanks to this year’s bull market.
• Cracker Barrel shareholders voted to keep the company’s CEO, but ousted board member Gilbert Dávila after its disastrous rebranding.
• Starbucks workers are escalating their strike amid the holiday season.
• Nike just can’t do it: The struggling company just hit a “death cross.” Here’s what that means.

No government data? No problem. Tomorrow, we’ll get a look at the state of consumer sentiment courtesy of the University of Michigan, as well as S&P’s manufacturing and services PMI reports.

We also have an absolute deluge of Fedspeak coming our way tomorrow—and considering how stocks sold off today on fears that the Fed may not cut rates anytime soon, investors will be hanging on every word. We’ll hear from New York Fed President John Williams, Boston Fed President Susan Collins, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr, and Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson.

As for earnings, there’s only one company of any real import reporting tomorrow: BJ’s Wholesale Club.