Wall Street pros are hoping SpaceX will give them a ride to the moon.

It’s only been two weeks since the company’s launch, yet SpaceX has already managed to become the most talked-about (and most traded) stock on Wall Street. Now that the quiet period after its debut has ended, analysts are starting to talk about the stock, too.

They have some pretty good things to say: Of the 15 firms currently issuing ratings for SpaceX, 14 say it’s a buy, while only one is neutral on the stock. Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, and UBS are among the most bullish, but the biggest optimists of all are at Raymond James, which gave the stock an incredible $800 price target. However, the average price target on Wall Street is $240 a share.

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas unveiled one of the highest price targets so far—$300 per share—implying a 101% gain from today’s close. But the difference between his bull case of shares rising to $600, and his bear case that leaves shares tumbling to $75, underscores the guessing game Wall Street analysts are undertaking. Still, the upside potential for SpaceX is unmistakable.

“SpaceX combines near-monopoly launch economics, the world’s largest LEO satellite network, and a fast-scaling AI infrastructure business,” wrote Jonas. “We see the company as one of the few platforms that can link real estate in orbit, global connectivity, and compute capacity into one infrastructure stack.”

Despite the outpouring of love for the stock, SpaceX still fell 6.83% today.

Too much of a good thing

If the glowing reviews sound a little too good to be true, keep in mind that many of these banks are SpaceX investors: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Raymond James, some of the most bullish on the company, are all underwriters on SpaceX’s IPO. That gives them some serious financial incentive to focus more on SpaceX’s ambitious goals and less on its lack of profitability or its eye-popping $2 trillion valuation.

At least one dissenter has emerged from the pack so far: MoffettNathanson, which initiated coverage with a neutral rating and a $131 price target on the stock, implying a 12% downside from today’s close.

“There is simply no credible financial model that can support what is, at the time of this writing, a roughly $2 trillion valuation,” analyst Julie Zhu wrote bluntly. “It would be easy—some might argue prudent—to initiate coverage with a flashing red Selling rating,” she warned.

Only one thing’s for sure: If SpaceX goes down, it’s taking the suits—and their credibility—along with it.—LB

🟢 What’s up

• Cognizant Technology Solutions gained 6.21% after expanding its partnership with Google Cloud to accelerate enterprise adoption of Gemini AI.
• Adobe rose 1.59% despite a Bank of America Underperform rating, with investors viewing the stock’s valuation as attractive.
• Fiserv climbed 1.8% amid reports it is exploring the sale of its debit payments infrastructure business to a consortium of major US banks.
• Figma advanced 5.27% on a Bank of America Buy rating, with analysts calling AI a long-term growth tailwind.
• Cloudflare gained 8.6% as Scotiabank upgraded the stock, citing growing confidence in its AI infrastructure business.
• Crinetics Pharmaceuticals surged 98.74% after Vertex Pharmaceuticals agreed to acquire the company for roughly $10 billion.

What’s down

• Rivian Automotive dropped 18.12% on plans to sell 75 million shares to repay part of its Energy Department loan.
• Siemens Energy sank 5.17% following an analyst downgrade, with rivals GE Vernova and Caterpillar falling 6.51% and 3.07%, respectively, in sympathy.
• USA Rare Earth tumbled 8.11% as congressional Democrats widened their investigation into the government’s $1.6 billion investment in the company.
• T1 Energy fell 19.65% following reports of a new regulatory probe into its safety practices.
• Getty Images fell 8.34% after officially terminating its merger with Shutterstock in the wake of UK regulatory opposition.

The market has a short memory—oops, sorry, we meant to say that the market is shorting memory.

Memory stocks like Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung have been investors’ favorite trade recently, which has helped push all three companies into the trillion-dollar club this year. But all good things must come to an end, and all three stocks are now down at least 20% from their recent highs, putting them firmly into bear market territory.

The memory stock rally kicked off when investors realized that the three firms above control the vast majority of memory chip production, giving them a stranglehold on an increasingly valuable market as hyperscalers bought up every memory chip in sight. But traders have been taking profits lately as they fret about sky-high valuations and worry about rising costs of memory hurting the rest of the AI trade.

The straw that broke the camel’s back today was Samsung’s preliminary Q2 earnings, which were genuinely incredible—but investors had already bought the rumor, so today they sold the news, pushing shares down 6.92%. That dragged the rest of the industry down, too, with Micron falling 4.71% and SK Hynix dropping 6.06%.

Speaking of which, SK Hynix will present the memory trade with its next big test when it makes its US debut later this week. Its $28 billion US listing is reportedly oversubscribed, which is good news—but investors have a short memory, even when it comes to stocks that have delivered massive gains until now.—MR

The NATO summit is officially in session, as President Trump joins leaders from all 32 member countries in Ankara, Turkey to tackle some of the alliance’s biggest security challenges.

High on the agenda: Russia’s war in Ukraine after Kyiv launched one of its deepest drone strikes yet into Russian territory last night; Europe’s efforts to shore up defenses amid shrinking US military support; and a lasting peace agreement between the US and Iran.

But for Trump, who told reporters he has been “very disappointed” with the alliance, one of the biggest problems is defense spending—and for investors, it may be one of the biggest opportunities.

Defense stocks take flight

Last year, NATO members agreed to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, up from the previous 2%, but Trump wants allies to accelerate that timeline.

That prospect is lifting defense stocks. Goldman Sachs’ basket of European defense stocks has climbed to its highest level in more than a month as investors bet that faster military spending will translate into larger weapons orders. Since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Goldman’s group of European defense stocks—such as BAE Systems and Rheinmetall—has surged roughly 500%, including a 90% gain last year after NATO agreed to the higher spending target.

Drone makers could also be among the biggest beneficiaries. Low-cost unmanned aircraft have become increasingly central to modern warfare, putting companies such as AeroVironment, Aevex, Red Cat Holdings, and Swarmer in the spotlight. In fact, William Blair estimates the US market for lower-cost drones could reach $100 billion annually.

The next challenge

The deals are already starting to roll in. NATO announced it will buy up to 10 surveillance aircraft from Swedish defense company Saab in a deal Bloomberg estimates could be worth roughly $5 billion. Secretary General Mark Rutte also said four European countries will jointly purchase up to five high-altitude drones from Northrop Grumman.

For investors, though, the bigger question is execution. Governments continue to pledge record defense spending, including Trump’s proposed $1.5 trillion defense budget for fiscal 2027—about 50% larger than the current year’s budget. But defense companies still face labor shortages and supply-chain bottlenecks that have slowed production, making it harder to turn growing order books into revenue as the next battlefield shifts to the factory floor.—SY

• JPMorgan, Bank of America, and other big banks are discussing a secretive deal that would help them get around long-hated fees on debit-card transactions.
• AI spending is a giant, high-stakes game of chicken.
• Amazon plans to raise at least $25 billion through a bond sale, but promises it’s the last one of the year.
• Chinese AI startup DeepSeek wants to make its own AI chips, putting pressure on Nvidia.
• Time to pop the question: De Beers just cut the price of diamonds for the first time in ages.
• Microsoft has started to replace OpenAI and Anthropic with its own AI models in apps like Excel and Outlook.
• Here’s why the next decade could be a slow one for private equity.

Earnings announcements: The first earnings report of the new season is bellwether heavyweight…Levi Strauss & Co. It may not move the needle, but it’s still nice to see the earnings season begin.

Economic reports: While the Consumer Credit report for May is worth a read, expect headlines to be grabbed by the minutes from last month’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting. It’s the first meeting since Kevin Warsh took the helm, and considering the new Fed chair doesn’t seem like the chatty type, investors are hoping to glean some insights about the Fed’s next move from the minutes.