Airlines have spent years trying to get passengers to pay for checked bags, seat selection, and even a bottle of water. Now companies are staring down a cost that’s harder to charge for: soaring fuel prices.

According to the International Air Transport Association, average jet fuel prices are expected to be a whopping 70% higher than a year ago, pushing the industry’s fuel bill up by $100 billion.

That surge could cut global airline profits in half this year, to just $23 billion. North American carriers are still projected to generate a large share of those earnings at $9.4 billion, though that’s down sharply from $12.4 billion last year.

A tale of two carriers

The pain will be felt most acutely by airlines with thin balance sheets and those operating in the Gulf region, where conflict has disrupted routes and demand. Budget carrier Spirit Airlines became an early casualty, suspending operations last month, while European carriers including EasyJet, Lufthansa, and Ryanair warned that rising fuel costs could weigh on already-slim profits. Back in April, a group of US budget airlines including Frontier and Avelo even sought a $2.5 billion government bailout, though the request was rejected. Meanwhile, struggling American Airlines paused even more domestic routes today thanks to fuel costs.

But for some larger carriers, especially those based in the US, the outlook is less dire. Airlines like United and Delta serve wealthier travelers who are more willing to absorb higher fares, while disruptions at Middle Eastern rivals like Emirates and Qatar have created an opportunity to capture displaced demand. According to Flightradar24, United and Delta have increased long-haul widebody flying by 11% and 12%, respectively.

Turbulence ahead

Fuel costs may not be coming down anytime soon. Crude oil prices rose another 2.39% today after Iran and Israel renewed hostilities, trading fire for the first time since April. While fighting has since halted, the latest flare-up is a reminder that tensions in the region can reignite quickly.—SY

🟢 What’s up

• Nvidia advanced 1.73% after partnering with SK Hynix to supply advanced memory for AI factory infrastructure.
• Crocs gained 1.09% after Baird upgraded the stock, citing improving demand trends in North America.
• Corning rose 5.58% on a new agreement to supply fiber-optic connectivity products for Amazon’s expanding US datacenter network.
• Intel jumped 11.19% on reports that Alphabet and Nvidia are considering the company as a backup chip manufacturer.
• Cerebras Systems popped 18.32% as Morgan Stanley, Barclays, Wedbush Securities, and UBS initiated coverage with bullish ratings.
• Nurix Therapeutics jumped 6.83% after Roche agreed to license its experimental blood cancer treatment in a deal worth up to $2.3 billion.
• Tango Therapeutics surged 52.97% on encouraging early-stage data for its pancreatic cancer treatment.
• Micron rebounded 9.87% as investors piled back into memory chip stocks following last week’s semiconductor selloff.

What’s down

• Zealand Pharma tumbled 22.68% after new data on an experimental weight loss drug raised concerns about side effects.
• Wix.com fell 7.98% after cutting revenue and bookings expectations for 2026.
• The Ensign Group fell 8.15% as short seller Hunterbrook accused the nursing home operator of cutting corners on patient care.

Apple’s annual Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) kicked off today: Over the course of the week, Tim Apple—sorry, Cook—and Co. will show off new AI-powered updates, including a revamped, and (gasp) actually functional version of Siri.

You remember Siri, right? The thing you used to snap at until giving up completely? Apple now swears our relationship with the voice assistant will change. Siri 2.0 will be powered by Google;’s Gemini, and will have a standalone chatbot that looks similar to both ChatGPT and Claude interfaces. It’s also supposed to read your screen, go through your emails and photos, and be able to complete tasks across apps. Bank of America analysts say an overhauled, agentic Siri could add up to $30 billion in incremental revenue by 2030.

Investors will be closely watching WWDC, and not just because it’s Cook’s last one as CEO before he hands the reins to John Ternus. Apple stock has already been flirting with all-time highs, soaring about 15% in May thanks to investor confidence in the company’s AI direction. So plenty of optimism has already been priced in. Historically, shares don’t spike immediately after the WWDC, though Marketwatch does note that Apple stock rises an average of 5.6% in the month following the conference, and is up an average of 14.1% three months later. At close on Monday, one day into the WWDC, shares were down 1.89%.

Regardless of how the rest of the week goes, remember: Apple doesn’t appear as interested in bloodying itself in the trenches of the AI “race” so much as neatly folding AI into all of its (very popular, already highly adopted) consumer products—and laughing all the way to the bank.—AC

Last week, we wrote about how a shoutout from Jensen Huang was enough to propel Marvell’s staggering 32.5% single-day jump.

Now, the semiconductor star is making the case that it’s more than a passing AI-trade fad. The company surged 9.63% today after news broke Friday that it’s being added to the S&P 500 index, a change that will take effect June 22. Manufacturing company Flex will also join the exclusive S&P 500 club, while Pool Corp and The Campbell’s Company are both getting the boot.

Zoom out: The news of Marvell’s inclusion in the index isn’t particularly shocking, given the company has risen 239.9% year to date, boosting its market cap to $230 billion. In its latest earnings report, the company reported reaching a key profitability milestone, making it eligible to be in the index.

Marvell is a chipmaker like Nvidia, Intel, and the rest of the crew, but its real value is in enabling the “digital plumbing” of datacenters: the networking that enables thousands of processors to communicate with each other. That job becomes increasingly important as datacenters grow larger and more complex.

Joining the S&P 500 tends to give share prices a slight pep in their step since index funds have to buy companies’ shares to track them. The PR and prestige don’t hurt, either, and Marvell’s addition is one more sign of how dominant the AI trade has become in the broader market.

Kingvidia’s darling

Jensen Huang wasn’t just calling Marvell the “next trillion-dollar company” to be nice. Nvidia itself agreed to a $2 billion investment in Marvell in March of this year.

But even being hand-plucked as Jensen’s golden goose can’t shield the company from investors’ hot-and-cold feelings about the AI trade: The same day the S&P 500 announced Marvell was joining the index, the stock dropped 17% after its bigger competitor, Broadcom, gave ‘meh’ revenue guidance.

Whether share prices roil in the Nasdaq, the S&P 500, or another index entirely, the volatility of the AI trade stops for nobody. —LB

• A judge ruled that President Trump’s $100,000 H1-B visa fee is unlawful, eliminating a labor-cost burden for a tech sector that relies on overseas talent.
• Bending Spoons, the holding company that owns nostalgic tech businesses like AOL and Eventbrite, filed for an IPO.
• FTX co-founder Sam Bankman-Fried has officially submitted an application with the DOJ for a presidential pardon.
• A new report from the New York Fed found that 13.3% of US households say their financial situation is much worse than one year ago; the highest in four years.
• Ahead of a potential public offering, OpenAI is doing its biggest-yet overhaul to ChatGPT. Expect…way less chatting.

It’s a busy week ahead:

Tuesday: Game 4 of the NHL Stanley Cup Final.

Wednesday: AI bellwether Oracle releases earnings, the May CPI report is released, and it’s Game 4 of the NBA finals.

Thursday: Adobe announces earnings, the PPI report is released, and the World Cup kicks off.

Friday: SpaceX likely makes its Nasdaq debut. Also, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report is released.