• Stocks: Major indexes remained relatively flat as traders sat with the week’s first batch of big-bank earnings.
• Commodities: Energy prices were mixed but relatively stable as President Trump defended his choice to ease restrictions on Russian diesel so that it can enter global markets.
• Bonds: Long-term Treasury yields lowered slightly thanks to energy prices evening out.

Banks

Morning Brew, Inc.

Last week it seemed that Wall Street’s strategy for the first half of 2026 was: Pick a fee, any fee. Trading, underwriting, dealmaking, lending—if money was moving, banks were finding a way to get paid, and they were making major profits doing it.

Today’s big-bank earnings suggest the buffet is getting a little less all-you-can-eat.

JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo all reported third-quarter earnings results today, including some strong successes: Goldman posted its second-best revenue quarter ever, Citi logged its strongest Q3 revenue in a decade, and Wells Fargo’s profit rose 6%.

But underneath those headline numbers, the boom is starting to diverge. Stock trading is red-hot. Fixed-income trading has softened. Investment banking remains healthy, but more uneven. And higher rates are giving traditional lending income a lift.

After a first half when nearly every corner of Wall Street seemed to be pulling its weight, Q3 showed which lines of business are doing more of the heavy lifting now.

Higher rates, reshuffling profits

The Fed’s latest rate hike helped push bond prices lower and made an already-volatile Treasury market even trickier. That weighed on parts of JPMorgan’s fixed-income business and contributed to securities losses at Wells Fargo.

But the same environment has been a gift to equities desks. JPMorgan’s equities revenue jumped 49% year-over-year to a record $4.95 billion, Goldman’s surged 72% to $6.44 billion, and Citi’s rose 14% as investors kept trading through the volatility.

Fixed income was much weaker. JPMorgan’s revenue fell 4%, its first year-over-year decline in more than two years, while Goldman’s business slowed from Q2. Investment banking was more mixed, with JPMorgan saying that while activity moderated from its blowout Q2, fees were still up 14% year-over-year, and Goldman’s fees rose 21% from the same quarter last year.

Meanwhile, higher rates are helping traditional banking get a cushion. JPMorgan raised its outlook for net interest income, while Citi’s NII climbed 14% year-over-year.

An economic cheatsheet

That divergence matters even if you don’t own a bank stock.

Banks can see when companies want financing, investors begin repositioning, and consumers are still willing to spend. And so far, the message is still resilient. Wells Fargo said consumers are spending more, delinquencies remain low, and businesses still have strong balance sheets. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon also pointed to solid business investment and consumer spending.

For investors, that means the next stage of earnings season may be less about growth—and more about who can afford growth as capital costs more.

Companies with strong cash flows and balance sheets have room to keep spending. Those that depend on cheap debt or frequent refinancing have much less.

When Bank of America and Morgan Stanley report tomorrow, we’ll see if that split is spreading across Wall Street—and how it shakes out across the economy.—HC

      

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Stocks

🟢 What’s up

• Meta climbed 2.63% after launching Muse Wonder, a frontier-level family of AI models designed to compete with the industry’s most advanced systems.
• Getty Images surged 15.65% after securing up to $533 million from the Getty family and Koch Equity Development in a bankruptcy restructuring that will take it private.
• Fermi jumped 14.46% after announcing an agreement with AMD tied to its data center infrastructure business.

🔴 What’s down

• Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix fell 7.39%, 3.62%, and 3.19%, respectively, after Chinese rival CXMT reported progress developing more efficient memory chips, raising concerns about increased competition.
• SpaceX sank 4.21% amid a broader selloff in AI-related stocks sparked by concerns about the memory chip market.
• Six Flags Entertainment plunged 14.43% following a deadly incident at its Six Flags Over Georgia amusement park.
• Johnson & Johnson slipped 5.73% despite beating quarterly earnings expectations and raising its full-year outlook, as disappointing sales in its medical technology business weighed on shares.
• Syndax Pharmaceuticals tumbled 15.71% after its experimental lung disease treatment delivered disappointing trial results.
• Domino’s Pizza dropped 4.76% despite an earnings beat, as sluggish sales growth highlighted continued pressure from budget-conscious customers.

Stock of the day

UnitedHealth outkicks its coverage

Morning Brew Inc, Photo: Adobe Stock

It seemed like a pretty premium day for UnitedHealth Group: Reporting third-quarter earnings, the healthcare giant outpaced Wall Street expectations and raised its full-year outlook, pushing UHG onward in its year-long turnaround campaign.

The insurer has now gone three for three in strong earnings growth this year, helping reverse a rocky 2025. Last year saw UnitedHealth endure some serious ails—its stock’s worst day of trading in decades, its first annual revenue drop in over 30 years, and its CEO resigning in defeat, just to name a few.

The company said it expects adjusted earnings of at least $20.50 per share for 2026, up from $19.50 to $20 per share. But investors think the company still has a ways to go: UnitedHealth stock closed relatively flat today.

Healthy returns

As the US’s largest private health insurer by both revenue and market share, UHG’s report helps diagnose the health of the industry at large.

One persistent malady: higher medical costs, which have been giving private insurers headaches for over two years. Factors like the consolidation of health systems (which give hospitals greater power over prices), an uptick in specialized treatments (which bill higher), and demand for pricey pharmaceutical drugs (let’s just say it: GLP-1s) all play in.

But UnitedHealth is tackling the cost challenge by emphasizing low-cost and preventative care. The strategy seems to have worked in Q3: Expensive acute hospital admissions fell 15% year-over-year, while cost-effective home health admissions rose 10%. “We think we’re really balancing both the quality and the cost,” CEO Wayne DeVeydt told CNBC. It may be a triage strategy other insurers take up.—GR

Investing

Morning Brew, Inc.

For all the swiping your single friends are doing, the dating app business isn’t getting much love.

Bumble will be acquired by investment firm Ithaca Holdings in a $1.3 billion deal that will take the company private.

It’s a much-needed match for Bumble, whose five-year stint on Wall Street has been anything but romantic. Once valued at roughly $14 billion near its 2021 IPO, the company was worth just $335 million at Friday’s close. That said, Ithaca’s $6.05-per-share buyout offer represents a 138% premium to that price, shooting shares up 56.58% today.

The honeymoon is over

It’s not hard to see why the spark has faded. Between endless swiping, first dates that feel like job interviews, and three-month situationships that end in mutual ghosting, dating-app fatigue has become a familiar frustration. Younger singles are increasingly seeking more organic connections, posing a particular challenge for platforms whose business depends on keeping users engaged and paying for subscriptions. After all, a dating app’s ideal success story is also a customer who no longer needs it.

Bumble’s paying users fell 16.4% year-over-year to 3.2 million last quarter, while revenue dropped 15% to $211 million. Tinder also saw paying users decline 5%, as the industry struggles to convince singles that another premium subscription will improve their prospects.

But not everyone is getting ghosted: Hinge, whose “designed to be deleted” tagline promises meaningful connections, grew revenue by 22% and paid users by 17% last quarter. Its success suggests that people haven’t necessarily given up on online dating. They’re just becoming more selective about which platforms are worth their time and money.

Wall Street plays Cupid

It’s now up to Bumble’s new leaders, former Sequoia Capital partner Ravi Gupta and ex-Meta executive John Hegeman, to see if Silicon Valley can revive modern romance. The co-CEOs will become the first men to lead the dating app that made its name on women making the first move.

Whether the change can cure dating-app fatigue remains to be seen, but going private has its perks: Without Wall Street scrutinizing every quarter, Bumble will have more room to experiment and pursue a longer-term turnaround. The company has already been exploring AI-powered matchmaking and ways to help users meet beyond the swipe.

For an industry desperate to win back users, Bumble’s makeover could be a sign of things to come. And with AI increasingly in the mix, don’t be surprised if your next match is a chatbot supposedly interested in your weekend plans.—SY

      

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News

• Existing-home sales unexpectedly increased for the first time since May, rising 1.5% in September as buyers took advantage of steadier mortgage rates.
• New York Fed President John Williams said that while we may require one more rate hike this year, he currently sees no need for additional hikes in 2027.
• Netflix grabbed the Spanish rights to the 2030 Men’s World Cup, the streamer’s first foray into the major soccer tournament.
• Walmart said it will cover more than 250 prescription drugs at no cost for workers, including some GLP-1s and insulin.
• Kroger announced it will cut 3,000 corporate jobs over three years as it expands its use of AI and strips out management layers.
• KKR is scrapping non-compete agreements for roughly 800,000 workers earning under $100,000 across its US portfolio companies.

Calendar

We’ll get a major economic indicator with the September CPI numbers. Plus, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, and State Street continue our finance earnings spree, with additional earnings from semiconductor-equipment maker ASML, insurance company Progressive, and industrial supplier Fastenal.

recs

🚀 Hedge fund legend Paul Tudor Jones says the stock market’s in for a rocky ride in 2027—but there’s good news before we get there.

🏦 How’s that for a bank bonanza? One of the firms reporting earnings today could see its stock lift by 30%, thanks to a serious turnaround strategy.

🎓 College aid is changing. Get ahead of the new rules if you plan to look at federal student loans.

💵 Some retirees are claiming Social Security early for all the wrong reasons—but you can avoid the pitfalls by looking at these parts of your portfolio first.

🏠 Want to help your kids buy their first home? Here’s how to do it without things getting weird.

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