| | | | | | | | Data is provided by |  | *Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 4:00pm ET. Here's what these numbers mean. | - War of words: On Sunday evening, Iran’s Parliamentary Speaker warned on X that pre-market news, or “Truth,” is a reverse indicator, and that investors should do the opposite of what they hear. “See something tomorrow? You know the drill,” he wrote. Early this morning, President Trump wrote on Truth Social that “great progress has been made” toward peace with Iran.
- Stocks: Investors took the President at his word, with equities climbing this morning despite reports of plans for US troops to attack the key fuel hub of Kharg Island. But the rally ran out of steam midday after WTI crude closed above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022.
- Bonds: Treasury yields sank thanks to comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell that inflation expectations remain “well anchored,” even as oil prices continue to climb.
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INVESTING Two of the brashest names in finance finally agree on something. Hedge fund billionaire Bill Ackman dropped a new market call on his platform of choice yesterday. “Some of the highest quality businesses in the world are trading at extremely cheap prices,” he wrote on X. “Ignore the bears.” If you’re wondering which companies Ackman is referring to, he gave us some ideas in his next post. The government-sponsored mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are “stupidly cheap,” according to Ackman. He certainly has a point there: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are both down roughly 60% from their previous peak in September. Ackman predicted that the two companies could offer 10X returns, and that “it could happen soon.” Since Ackman’s post, both companies have surged: Fannie Mae jumped 50.21% today, while Freddie Mac surged 50.23%. To add fuel to the fire, Michael Burry, the famed investor who predicted the subprime mortgage crisis, backed Ackman up, responding to Ackman’s post on X, “Cannot emphasize enough how rare this is in this market.” Quick rewind: Burry disclosed a significant stake in both Fannie and Freddie last December. He then noted in his popular Substack “Cassandra Unchained” that while both companies contributed to the 2008 financial crisis by owning subprime mortgages, some of the White House’s policies could actually be a boon to the two companies. But last week, Burry wasn’t quite as enthusiastic, predicting an IPO wouldn’t come until 2027 “at best,” and warning that housing “is in for a long winter.” In previous social media posts, Ackman argued that the two companies had been treated unjustly by the US government after the housing bubble burst. Back in November, Ackman iterated a plan to re-list both companies on the New York Stock Exchange. Back to value? Ackman and Burry’s bullish take comes at a tumultuous time for the market: oil prices are sky-high due to the Iran war, inflation is beginning to make a comeback, and fears are swirling about the labor market slowing. Those flashing warning signs are leading a lot of investors to flee stocks. But to Ackman, the fact that there’s anxiety means that many of the best companies are now trading at a bargain. Another reason Ackman is so bullish is his insistence that the Iran war will soon end peacefully—an expectation that is by no means certain. “One of the most one-sided wars in history that will end well for the U.S. and the world,” he wrote in his original post. Still, if these two are teaming up, perhaps it's worth paying attention.—LB | | |
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STOCKS 🟢 What’s up - United Therapeutics rose 12.53% after a nebulized version of its blockbuster drug Tyvaso delivered improved results in a second Phase 3 trial.
- Palo Alto Networks gained 4.99% as CEO Nikesh Arora bought about $10 million worth of shares.
- Blackstone climbed 3.25%, Apollo added 1.41%, Carlyle advanced 1.64%, and Blue Owl rose 2.54% after the Department of Labor proposed easing rules to allow more alternative assets in 401(k) plans.
- CrowdStrike rose 2.84% after Wolfe Research upgraded the stock to Outperform, pointing to stronger cybersecurity spending tied to next-gen AI rollouts.
- Eli Lilly gained just 0.96% after announcing a $2.75 billion deal yesterday with Insilico Medicine to bring AI-developed drugs to the global market.
What’s down - Boston Scientific fell 9.03%, hitting a two-year low as mixed test results for its Watchman device raised concerns over its stroke-prevention outlook.
- Sysco dropped 15.29% on news it agreed to acquire Jetro Restaurant Depot in a $29.1 billion deal.
- Avis Budget slid 8.68% following the announcement of an equity distribution agreement with major banks.
- Data center builder Fermi fell 13.27% after failing to secure a cornerstone tenant for its Project Matador campus in Texas.
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STOCKS OF THE DAY Forget oil, there’s a new hot commodity in town. Over the weekend, Iran attacked production plants belonging to Emirates Global Aluminium and Aluminium Bahrain—two of the largest producers of aluminum in the Middle East. Both facilities have effectively been knocked out for the foreseeable future, exacerbating an aluminum supply crunch and pushing the price of the precious metal to a four-year high this morning. While the Middle East only accounts for about 9% of the world’s aluminum supply, that supply was already constrained thanks to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. These attacks have created an even tighter bottleneck on aluminum—as well as an opportunity for mining companies. Aluminum miners soared today: Alcoa led the way, rallying 8.22%, while Century Aluminum popped 7.25%. Analysts remain unsure of how long the good times will last for these miners. Aluminum prices could keep climbing in the short term as the fighting in the Strait of Hormuz continues, but if prices rise too high then China, the largest aluminum producer in the world, could step in and raise its output to flood the market. For now at least, aluminum is the gold standard of commodities in short supply.—MR |
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QUANTUM Quantum computing has long felt like something out of a sci-fi movie. But lately, it’s starting to look a little more real. In just the first quarter of this year, several quantum startups have rushed to go public by merging with SPACs: - Infleqtion went public on the NYSE last month via Churchill Capital Corp. The company develops quantum sensing and computing technologies, with Pentagon-backed defense contracts boosting investor appeal.
- Horizon Quantum recently debuted on the NASDAQ via dMY Squared, positioning itself as the premiere quantum software platform.
- Xanadu went public on both the NASDAQ and TSX via Crane Harbor Acquisition Corp on Friday, becoming the first pure-play photonic quantum computing company.
Reality check However, it’s not going quite as these companies hoped. The buzz has faded fast: Infleqtion is down about 37% since going public, Horizon Quantum has slipped roughly 10%, and Xanadu tumbled nearly 32% today. That doesn’t come as much of a surprise, given, well, everything going on. War and stagflation fears are weighing on investor confidence—especially for speculative plays like quantum computing, where companies are typically capital-intensive, pre-revenue, and reliant on long-term, uncertain breakthroughs. The structure of these deals adds another layer of risk. SPACs offer a faster, less regulated path to market, with valuations set privately between sponsor and target. That makes them particularly attractive for quantum firms, as they allow companies to use forward-looking projections to sell that long-term vision. But for investors, that creates a clear mismatch between valuation and fundamentals. Take Xanadu: it generated just $2.7 million in revenue in the first nine months of 2025, yet the SPAC deal it inked to go public values the company at roughly $3.1 billion. A turning point arrives Whether that valuation gap is justified is up for debate. But some analysts remain bullish on the space, arguing the industry may be at an inflection point. For years, quantum computing was largely R&D-driven, with governments footing the bill as the US, China, and the EU poured billions into building out the sector. Now, early signs of commercialization are starting to emerge, with use cases in logistics optimization, financial modeling, and drug and materials discovery hinting at real-world demand beyond the lab. “Quantum is one of a small number of technology categories investors view as structurally inevitable...The addressable market at full maturity is estimated at $100 to $250 billion, which gives patient capital a reason to look past near-term volatility,” Velu Sinha, partner at Bain, told CNBC. While the timeline remains uncertain, this recent wave of quantum companies going public signals capital is already positioning for the future. Investors should watch closely for signs that quantum computing is on its way to becoming the new AI trade.—SY | | |
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NEWS | The market’s closed. The money decisions aren’t. Money Unplugged explores how people actually think about money—risk, discipline, and life beyond the portfolio. |
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CALENDAR Economic reports: We’ve got the consumer confidence reading for March, as well as the S&P Case-Shiller home price index. Plus, while Jerome Powell hogged the spotlight today, we’ve got Fedspeak galore with Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, and governor Michael Barr. Earnings announcements: Nike, McCormick & Co., RH, PVH Corp., and FactSet |
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RECS OpenAI, Anthropic, and Databricks are all expected to go public this year. So, which of the three giant AI IPOs should you buy?
A karaoke machine company became an AI hotshot last month, posting a 450% gain over three days. Meet the controversial penny stock trader who saw it coming.
A housing market reset is on its way, which is great news for these five stocks.
US Treasuries are usually seen as a safe haven during geopolitical upheaval. So why did Middle Eastern oil-producing countries dump $66 billion in US debt since the start of March?
Here’s why Mexican stocks, bonds, and the peso are all set to outperform their peers as Mexico comes to dominate emerging markets this year.
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