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OpenAI eyes the iPhone
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Brew Markets // Morning Brew // Update
Plus, Wall Street is buying the dip.

Good afternoon. 140 companies, or roughly one-third of the S&P 500, has reported earnings thus far, and everything’s going pretty well: Bank of America reports that 73% of companies have beaten EPS estimates, 79% have beaten revenue forecasts, and 62% have beat on both, all of which are outpacing last quarter.

But the true test arrives this week, when another 180 companies release their latest reports—including Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft on Wednesday, and Apple on Thursday. It’s the busiest week of earnings this quarter, so brace yourself for yet another wild few days for markets.

Lucy Brewster, Sissy Yan & Mark Reeth

In today’s newsletter, we’ll chat about:

  • OpenAI is making moves
  • How rich is Larry Ellison, really?
  • Wall Street’s latest market predictions

MARKETS

Nasdaq

24,887.10

S&P

7,173.91

Dow

49,167.79

10-Year

4.336%

Oil

$96.41

Bitcoin

$76,915.19

Data is provided by

*Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 4:00pm ET. Here's what these numbers mean.

  • Stocks: Iran reportedly offered to open the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for delaying nuclear program concessions. A lack of immediate response from the US meant traders spent the day wondering and worrying, though that wasn’t enough to stop the S&P 500 and Nasdaq from hitting new record closing highs.
  • Commodities: Oil prices popped as peace talks between the US and Iran stalled. Goldman Sachs says the pain has only just begun, and raised its crude price forecast for the fourth quarter from $62 per barrel pre-war all the way to $90 per barrel.
  • Crypto: Bitcoin surged to just below $80,000 early this morning, but failed to break above the key price point.
 

TECH

Photo collage of the OpenAI logo blurring as it recedes into the distance, juxtaposed with some brightly colored pink graph paper.

Photos: Adobe Stock

Customers Bank CEO Sam Sidhu stunned analysts about a half hour into his earnings conference call on Friday when he revealed he had thus far been using an AI clone to deliver his remarks.

He wasn’t just playing a creepy prank experimenting, there was a larger point: His company is doubling down on embracing AI. Sidhu put his money where his robot mouth was and inked a deal with OpenAI to help automate Customers Bank lending, CNBC reported today.

But that’s far from the only deal that put Sam Altman’s buzzy startup in the headlines recently.

Can you hear me now?

Qualcomm and OpenAI will reportedly be teaming up to make new and improved smartphone processing chips that will go into mass production by 2028, according to TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

Manufacturing its own phone chips brings OpenAI one step closer to making its own smartphone, Kuo wrote on social media. He foresees the AI company using a phone to draw in more ChatGPT users, and that agents might replace apps. That’s bad news for Apple, which declined 1.27% today after the announcement, given the iPhone maker may have some new competition on the horizon.

But it was a  win for Qualcomm, which rose 0.98% on the news. Shares are still down 19.91% in the last six months, but shareholders are hoping that Qualcomm might finally be digging itself out of its rut after a rough earnings report earlier this year tanked the stock.

Old frenemies

Meanwhile, Microsoft and OpenAI announced they have rewritten the terms of their partnership, which has been one of the key alliances in Silicon Valley since they first teamed up in 2019. But over the past year, their pact has eroded as OpenAI decided it wanted to work with other big tech names. The biggest changes to the agreement include:

  • Microsoft’s license to OpenAI’s intellectual property won’t be exclusive anymore, meaning OpenAI’s products can now be used by other big tech giants like Amazon and Google.
  • Microsoft will no longer pay OpenAI any revenue share, while OpenAI will keep paying Microsoft 20% revenue share until 2030, but subject to a new cap that depends on OpenAI’s technological advances.

While this may sound like bad news for Microsoft, there’s finally some certainty after so much gossip about its fractured relationship with OpenAI. “It's good to get this ongoing partnership limbo now in the rear view mirror, as we view this as a net positive for Microsoft as the company locks in a 6-year IP control over OpenAI technology and maintains a significant share of OpenAI,” explained Wedbush analyst Dan Ives in a note today.

What’s next: OpenAI is set to remain firmly in the spotlight, as Elon Musk’s lawsuit against Sam Altman and his startup heads to trial. Jury selection begins today.—LB

Sponsored By Anrok

STOCKS

The biggest winners and losers on the stock market today

            

🟢 What’s up

  • Peloton rose 2.51% after partnering with Spotify to launch a fitness hub with 1,400+ classes for Premium users.
  • Joby Aviation popped 6.35% after the company successfully flew an air taxi from JFK to Manhattan.
  • Sun Pharmaceutical Industries climbed 6.83% after announcing its $11.75 billion all-cash acquisition of Organon & Co in a deal that boosts Sun into the top 25 global pharma players. Organon rose 16.96% on the news.
  • Adidas eked out a 0.79% gain after its shoes were worn by the runner of the first sub-2-hour marathon.
  • X-energy surged 23.05%, extending its post-IPO rally as investors piled into nuclear power plays.
  • Memory names Sandisk rose 8.11% and Micron Technology added 5.6% after Melius Research analysts said AI demand should keep the cycle strong through the decade.
  • Lionsgate Studios climbed 7.4% on a blockbuster debut for Michael, with box office sales beating expectations by $30 million.
  • Verizon gained 1.55% after strong Q1 results and its first positive first-quarter subscriber growth since 2013.

What’s down

  • Shell dropped 2.49% as it struck a $16.4 billion deal for ARC Resources.
  • Domino’s Pizza fell 8.87% after revenue missed expectations, with growth leaning heavily on new stores instead of same-store sales.
  • Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) slipped 3.83% after a rare downgrade from Northland Capital Markets warning that competition is heating up and long-term estimates look too optimistic.
  • POET Technologies tumbled 47.35% after Celestial AI canceled all purchase orders.

STAT OF THE DAY

Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison

Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

Larry Ellison is worth about $213 billion, making him the sixth richest person on Earth. While such wealth may conjure images of the Oracle co-founder swimming through a Scrooge McDuck-esque pool of cash, the truth is Ellison isn’t very liquid right now. In fact, according to the Wall Street Journal, he might be deeply indebted.

Approximately 80% of Ellison’s wealth is derived from his 40% ownership of Oracle. But the WSJ ran the numbers on the software company’s annual proxy statement from last September and discovered that Ellison has pledged 12% of his Oracle shares as collateral for loans—far more than fellow billionaire founders of publicly traded companies like Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg.

Pledging shares is one way a wealthy founder can raise money while retaining ownership. The problem is that, if a company’s stock sinks—as Oracle’s has by 38.53% over the last six months—then lenders might sell some of the shares to recoup the value of their collateral, further hurting the stock. On a more personal level, about 24% of Ellison’s net worth is predicated on Oracle shares that he has pledged—a huge chunk compared to his peers—and that was before he promised another $40 billion to help finance the takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery by Paramount Skydance.

We won’t know until this September just how many shares of Oracle Ellison has pledged for that deal, but it seems likely that he’s promised more of his stock in exchange for loans—which means it’s really Oracle shareholders who are on the hook.—MR

INVESTING

Morgan Stanley, J. P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs

Adobe Stock, Leon Neal/Getty Images,

After a shaky start, stocks have ripped higher in 2026, with the S&P 500 closing out last week at a record high for the ninth time this year. But even as the market climbs to all-time highs, Wall Street’s message is the same it’s been all year: Buy the dip.

Here’s what the major banks are saying about this moment in markets:

  • JPMorgan says this cycle is different, arguing that today’s geopolitical shock won’t play out like past drawdowns. Unlike 2022, inflation is cooling and central banks are less likely to tighten into an energy-driven slowdown, while earnings momentum for the S&P 500 is strengthening. That combination means recent weakness is more about sentiment than fundamentals, making dips a buying opportunity rather than a warning sign.
  • Morgan Stanley also remains bullish, saying pullbacks should be shallow. For one, companies are doing better than Wall Street expected, with positive surprises running at about 2x the norm and forward estimates still moving higher. Meanwhile, AI adoption is accelerating: 25% of S&P 500 firms cited AI-derived benefits in Q1, up from 13% last year. They’ve helped cut costs and boost margins, especially for small caps.
  • Goldman Sachs is more cautious near term, flagging technical pressures that could drive a pullback. Hedge funds have been “degrossing”—cutting both longs and shorts—signaling lower conviction, while pensions are poised to sell over $25 billion in equities, and systematic funds are no longer aggressively buying after a large run-up. Still, the bank frames any resulting weakness as positioning-driven rather than fundamental, and ultimately a buying opportunity.
  • Evercore notes that the market’s recent surge—nearly 13% in just 12 sessions—is historically fast, rivaling some of the sharpest rebounds on record. While that pace suggests the market may be overbought in the near term, the firm’s base case still sees supportive macro conditions, including moderating oil prices. Evercore projects WTI oil will fall to the mid-$80s per barrel, helping the S&P 500 rise to 7,750 this year—but notes that if oil rises to $120 per barrel, it could push the index down to 6,315. Evercore says a drop below $76.73 per barrel, though, could fuel a rally toward 9,000.

The playbook

So, with all this in mind, how should investors play it?

JPMorgan says to position for a broader rally, with leadership expanding beyond mega-cap tech into value and small caps. The bank maintains an Overweight rating on semiconductors, even after the PHLX Semiconductor Index logged a record 18-day winning streak and sits roughly 50% above its 200-day moving average. JPM also sees international and emerging markets outperforming the US as the economic cycle progresses.

Bottom line: While some volatility is to be expected—especially with the Fed’s upcoming transition—the big banks are not exactly running for the exits. If anything, they’re sticking with the same playbook: Buy. The. Dip.—SY

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NEWS

Around the market

              

CALENDAR

What is happening in the world of finance tomorrow

         

Economic reports: The S&P Case-Shiller home price index and an April consumer confidence reading.

Earnings announcements: Earnings galore this week, with quarterly check-ins from Visa, Coca-Cola, Novartis, T-Mobile US, Welltower, Corning, Booking Holdings, S&P Global, BP, Starbucks, Spotify, UPS, Sherwin-Williams, Barclays, Ecolab, Hilton, Robinhood Markets, Mondelez, Vale, General Motors, Teradyne, NXP Semiconductors, Sysco, and Kimberly-Clark.

RECS

Reading material

        

Nightmare fuel: A wild story about how a glitch at Fidelity wiped out one person’s entire life savings.

Tech earnings are about to hit the market like a tsunami. Here are two key themes to listen for in this week’s earnings calls.

Ignore the hype: These 14 stocks are overvalued, so buyer beware.

🪙 President Trump held a special event this weekend to celebrate his $TRUMP memecoin, which is down over 96% from its all-time high. Here’s how it went.

The stock market is at all-time highs. Consumer sentiment is at all-time lows. Who’s right?

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✳︎ A Note From iShares by BlackRock

1 Source: Morningstar as of 1/28/2026, based on assets under management.

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