• Stocks: Tech stocks got some mojo back today, propping up the Nasdaq for most of the day before the index joined its peers in the red. But it remains to be seen just how long tech’s swagger sticks around ahead of major earnings reports this week, including from Alphabet and Tesla on Wednesday.
• Commodities: Oil prices jumped overnight as the US and Iran continued to trade attacks, dropped this morning, then regained ground this afternoon as Yemen’s Houthis declared a naval blockade around Saudi Arabia. Here in the US, the average cost of a gallon of gas rose back above $4 for the first time since mid-June.
• Trade: President Trump’s temporary global tariffs are set to expire on Friday, though new tariffs are likely on their way this week.

Earnings

Adobe Stock

Nicole Kidman has been telling moviegoers for years that they “came to this place for magic.” Today, investors have to agree.

Shares of AMC Entertainment surged 26.8% this afternoon after it reported a stellar quarter:

• The movie chain boasted record quarterly revenue of $1.6 billion, a 14% jump from last year and far above expectations of $1.47 billion.
• The company reported an all-time high adjusted EBITDA of $320.6 million, compared to $189.2 million last year. EBITDA measures how much a company’s core business earned—in this case showing movies—and cuts out interest expenses for a debt-laden company like AMC.
• US movie attendance rose 12% year over year, while attendance jumped 18% in international markets.

“In AMC’s entire 106-year history, there has never been a quarter like this one,” AMC CEO Adam Aron said on the company’s earnings call.

Blockbusters are back: After years of post-pandemic malaise, it feels like Hollywood is finally getting its mojo back. Major releases from household names like Toy Story 5 and The Super Mario Galaxy Movie were boons for AMC, as well as sleeper hits like Obsession and Backrooms. Christopher Nolan’s highly anticipated The Odyssey also premiered this past weekend and became Nolan’s best launch ever, grossing $124 million in its opening weekend, likely boosting AMC’s revenue in the current quarter.

From movies to memes

AMC’s road to today’s impressive announcement has been a kind of odyssey in itself. Although Covid-19 disrupted moviegoing six years ago, AMC never quite got fully back on its feet. While the stock is up 57.06% this year so far (partially thanks to today’s bump), over the past five years, AMC is still down a staggering 99.43%.

If you’ve had the displeasure of visiting r/WallStreetBets over the past few years, you might recognize AMC for its meme stock fame. Back in 2021, AMC reached an all-time high of $450 per share as it got swept up into meme madness—even while its actual business was still suffering post-pandemic. Although management took advantage of the meme mania to sell shares to raise cash and avoid bankruptcy, the move diluted existing shares, and the chain’s same old struggles continued.

In a statement released today, Aron acknowledged the company’s difficult road: “Finally, after some admittedly tough years as our industry recovered only slowly from the ravages of COVID-19 and its aftermath, the relentless focus of AMC on delighting our guests as we execute with all cylinders blazing is reflected in our record-setting second quarter financial results.”

While today’s earnings were sound, the company still faces challenges. The debt that management took out to prevent bankruptcy is still substantial, even while refinancing has put AMC’s balance sheet in a better position. And while moviegoing attendance has risen, it’s still below pre-pandemic levels, according to Reuters.

Only time will tell if AMC’s comeback is a fairytale ending, or one more plot point in a tragic tale.—LB

      

From The Crew

Founders don’t have the luxury of easy answers. Every week, Founder Brew gets into the decisions, dilemmas, and defining moments that shape companies and the people building them. We go straight to the founders with the hard-won wisdom you actually need.

Whether you’re in the trenches, tracking the next wave, or obsessed with how great companies get built, this newsletter is for you. Smart, honest, and always worth reading.

Subscribe to Founder Brew today. It’s free.

Stocks

🟢 What’s up

• JetBlue Airways rose 0.55% after federal regulators awarded the airline additional LaGuardia flight slots vacated by Spirit Airlines.
• IREN surged 19.57% after landing $2.8 billion in new AI infrastructure contracts and raising its annualized AI Cloud revenue target above $4 billion.
• Archer Aviation popped 19.59% by unveiling a new autonomous aircraft developed with Anduril Industries for defense and commercial markets.
• Alibaba gained 4.67% after previewing Qwen 3.8 Max, positioning it as a challenger to Anthropic’s flagship Fable 5 model.
• Hut 8 Corp. jumped 10.37% after signing a $9.8 billion lease that fully commercialized its Texas AI datacenter.
• Lumentum Holdings rose 4.47% following a Barclays upgrade on improving AI networking demand.
• Strategy advanced 3.13% after making no Bitcoin purchases last week.

🔴 What’s down

• Sweetgreen and CAVA fell 6.07% and 7.76%, respectively, as a cyclosporiasis outbreak continued to weigh on restaurant chains serving fresh produce.
• StoneX Group plunged 31.34% after Jefferies downgraded the financial services provider, saying its valuation already reflects the company’s strong operating performance.
• Tempus AI dropped 7.74% after announcing a $1.5 billion acquisition of Personalis to expand its cancer diagnostics platform.
• USA Rare Earth declined 2.68% following a CEO transition tied to its planned merger with Serra Verde.

Stat of the day

Betting it all on tech isn't paying off anymore

Morning Brew Inc.

Last Friday, Chinese startup Moonshot AI debuted Kimi K3, an open-source AI model that they said could outperform many top US models. It sparked a momentary panic across US markets, as investors worried they were in for some DeepSeek-style upheaval, sending tech stocks tumbling.

Today, things are relatively calm stateside. Investors have once again found their appetite for tech, focusing on news like Alphabet building a more efficient AI chip and AMD snagging Microsoft as a customer for its new server racks. But while the AI trade is getting back on track here, South Korean traders are entering panic mode.

The growth of AI has buoyed domestic names like SK Hynix and Samsung, which have in turn propelled the KOSPI, or South Korea’s stock market, to new heights. As in the US, South Korean retail traders feeling FOMO have bet big on the AI trade, pouring money into the market in the form of leveraged ETFs. But as that trade slows with the resurgence of cheaper Chinese competitors—among other factors—the KOSPI has turned extremely volatile, punishing individual investors.

In fact, last week approximately 1.2 million South Korean traders were hit with a margin call—that’s 3.4% of the entire country’s population, or one in every 30 adults—with between 320,000 to 360,000 of those investors getting fully liquidated. Divvy it up however you want: The fact is that a massive portion of the country suddenly saw their portfolios evaporate in a matter of days.

That money is gone for good—and with companies like Alibaba rolling out new, powerful, cheap AI models seemingly every day, the investors who bet it all on tech may be in for even bigger losses soon.—MR

Macro

Dasril Roszandi/Getty Images

One of the strongest El Niño weather patterns on record is underway and is expected to persist through September. The climate phenomenon, which warms Pacific Ocean temperatures and alters global weather patterns, typically brings hotter temperatures and more extreme weather across much of the world.

That means you’ll be bouncing between air-conditioned offices and the freezer aisle at the grocery store for the rest of the summer. But farmers, power grids, and commodity markets don’t have that luxury—and according to Wall Street strategists, that’s where investors should be paying attention.

Food, fuel, and inflation

Extreme heat and shifting rainfall patterns are expected to deal a serious blow to agricultural production in 2026, which could spark higher inflation.

Analysts estimate crop yields could fall 5% to 12% this year in the hardest-hit regions, with the yield of staples such as rice declining 2% to 8%. The expectation of tighter supplies is already pushing prices higher: Agricultural commodity prices have climbed 7% this month, according to Société Générale, while Man Group warns food inflation could reach double digits by 2027.

Even worse, Deutsche Bank analysts say El Niño can have second order effects on inflation as governments subsidize higher food prices. While that softens the immediate blow for consumers, it can also boost demand, widen fiscal deficits, and ultimately add even more inflationary pressure.

That’s particularly bad for emerging markets. While food-at-home accounts for just 8% of the US CPI basket, countries such as India and Indonesia have significantly greater exposure, leaving them far more vulnerable to price spikes.

And it isn’t just grocery bills that could rise; energy markets may heat up, too. Lower rainfall reduces hydroelectric generation just as scorching temperatures send demand for air-conditioning soaring—a classic case of less supply meeting more demand, pushing prices higher.

A new market risk

The timing of all this inclement weather is hardly ideal for the economy. Inflation is already running at 3.5%—well above the Fed’s 2% target—and energy markets are under pressure from disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. Weather-driven increases in food and energy prices would only make the inflation fight more difficult.

For investors, increasingly unpredictable weather is becoming more than a headline risk—it’s becoming a structural one. Maybe you should consult with a meteorologist rather than a financial advisor at your next portfolio review.—SY

      

News

• A federal judge temporarily halted the Paramount-Warner Bros. merger amid antitrust scrutiny.
• China’s car market is on track for its worst year since 2021.
• The 2026 World Cup was the most lucrative sporting event of all time, generating $9 billion in revenue.
• The FDA said that its finding of cyclosporiasis in Taylor Farms lettuce was a false positive.
• Jersey Mike’s is looking to raise $1.09 billion in its upcoming IPO.
• The Justice Department is easing up on white collar corporate crime.

Calendar

Earnings announcements: It’s a slow start to a big week of earnings, with numbers from the likes of Novartis, Charles Schwab, Interactive Brokers, Capital One, General Motors, D.R. Horton, MSCI, and Halliburton.

recs

⁉️ The average American pays a federal income tax rate of 14.5%. The average American corporation pays 12%. How did we get here?

📉 If you’re worried about the AI trade, Goldman Sachs says these three investment themes are good alternatives to invest in now.

📈 But if you’re all-in on AI, these five stocks are betting it all on the new tech.

💸 Here is how much money you should have in your 20s, 30s, 40s and later if you want to get ahead.

🤖 The arrival of Kimi K3 is being hailed as the latest ‘DeepSeek moment’ for markets. The truth is, it doesn’t matter nearly as much as you think.