Chevron has long been criticized—on both business strategy and humanitarian grounds—for being the only major oil company to continue doing business in Venezuela long after peers like ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips fled in the early 2000s.

But in an ironic twist of fate, that same risky investment might be paying off big-time just as President Trump turns up the volume on geopolitical tensions.

The US implemented a “total and complete blockade” on all sanctioned tankers linked to Venezuelan oil exports last week, and US authorities have so far seized two tankers, including one on Saturday. Today, oil prices jumped as the Trump administration escalated its feud with Venezuela by reportedly preparing to seize a third tanker, with crude climbing 2.58%.

This is all part of Trump’s larger effort to put pressure on Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, and potentially even oust him, according to Bloomberg. While the US Coast Guard has carried out the tanker seizures, the US Navy has built up its presence near Venezuela, as the US purportedly looks to curtail drug smuggling in the region.

“Venezuela is completely surrounded by the largest Armada ever assembled in the History of South America,” Trump wrote on Truth Social last week.

Chevron barrels on

While most tankers are idling at Venezuelan ports, Chevron—which produces roughly 200,000 barrels per day in the country—is as busy as ever.

Chevron has long had a unique deal in the region that makes it a frenemy of both Washington and Venezuela. The company has a special license from the US Treasury that allows it to do business in the nation without sanctions via a joint venture with Venezuela’s national oil company, PDVSA, which takes roughly half the oil Chevron produces. But to keep the US happy, Chevron is not supposed to pay taxes or give revenue directly to the Venezuelan government.

It’s a delicate balance with plenty of upside: Venezuela is home to some of the largest crude oil fields in the world, and Chevron is the only major global oil company with access to them. But Chevron’s operation is not without risk. For one, being in the center of this conflict could endanger its employees. Not to mention that its tenuous relationship with both the Trump administration and Venezuela’s government could go south at any moment.

Still, Chevron is most likely in a win-win situation. If Trump does topple Maduro’s government, Chevron will be a leader in resuscitating the country’s oil business. But if the two nations agree on a truce, then Maduro will want Chevron to help the government generate cash by upping its crude production and exports.—LB

🟢 What’s up

• Tesla rose 1.56% after a San Francisco power outage stalled Waymo’s robo-taxis while Tesla’s remained unaffected.
• Paramount Skydance secured billionaire Larry Ellison’s backing for its hostile bid for Warner Bros. Discovery. Paramount rose 4.29% and WBD jumped 3.53% on the news.
• Rocket Lab jumped 9.97% after winning an $816 million contract to build a missile-defense satellite constellation for the US Space Force.
• UniFirst popped 16.12% after Cintas proposed to acquire the uniform rental company for $275 per share in cash.
• Stanley Black & Decker gained 3.48% after agreeing to sell its aerospace manufacturing business to Howmet Aerospace for $1.8 billion, with proceeds earmarked for debt reduction.
• Investment management platform Clearwater Analytics climbed 8.18% after agreeing to an $8.4 billion take-private deal led by Permira and Warburg Pincus.
• First Solar rose 6.6% after Alphabet agreed to buy Intersect, one of First Solar’s key solar-module customers, for $4.75 billion.

What’s down

• Dominion Energy fell 3.7% after the Trump administration halted the Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind project, the largest offshore wind project in the US.
• Aerospace product maker Honeywell dropped 1.58% after announcing a $470 million litigation charge and issuing disappointing updated guidance.
• Maplebear slid 2% after Instacart said it would end all price tests following reports that identical items were being sold at different prices within the same store.
• Trump Media & Technology Group plunged 10.44% amid ethics concerns tied to its recently announced $6 billion merger with TAE Technologies.

There’s a Starbucks gift card in your stocking. You just don’t know it yet.

This year, 1 in every 5 Americans will receive a Starbucks gift card for the holidays. In fact, on Christmas Eve alone the company expects to rake in $60 million from gift card sales as procrastinators sprint to finish their shopping.

The real gift, however, comes from not using that card at all. Unredeemed gift cards are a goldmine for retailers, which can claim the revenue from their sales up front while knowing that a sizable percentage of people who receive these gift cards will never actually use them. That lets the company collect free money, which in business lingo is called “breakage.” Starbucks enjoyed about $222.4 million in total breakage revenue during its last fiscal year.

Beyond Starbucks, gift cards are big business in general: The National Retail Federation says consumers will spend about $29 billion on the tiny pieces of plastic this year. It’s no wonder that TikTok wants in on the action: Today it unveiled new digital gift cards for users to purchase items in its TikTok Shop, the latest phase in the social media platform’s quest to become an all-in-one retail destination.

Remember, gift cards aren’t just a great way of telling your loved ones that you forgot to buy them a Christmas present this year—they’re also an invaluable way for companies to pad their bottom lines.—MR

The beauty aisle is sleighing it this holiday season.

Shoppers expect to spend about $247 per person on beauty gifts this year, making it the fourth-highest holiday spending category, with wellness products taking up a growing share of those purchases.

Wellness spending has surged since the pandemic, as consumers prioritize “feeling good from the inside out,” Circana analyst Larissa Jensen told CNBC. Products that once lived on drugstore shelves have been repackaged, influencer-boosted, and upgraded into mainstream retail aisles—and Ulta Beauty is quickly emerging as the biggest beneficiary.

Ulta rides the wellness wave

Higher wellness spending helped Ulta beat fiscal Q3 expectations, with earnings up 13% year over year, driven by a 6.8% increase in comparable-store sales, its acquisition of Space NK, and new store openings. It also raised its full-year sales and profit outlook for the second straight quarter, pointing to steady holiday demand despite shaky consumer confidence. Shares are up 40.93% YTD.

Ulta wants to build on that momentum and capitalize on the look good/feel good boom by dramatically expanding its in-store wellness footprint. The chain has expanded wellness shop space from just a few shelves to as much as 45 feet in roughly a third of its stores. Ulta has also added nearly 30 new wellness brands this year, bringing the total to around 100.

That includes products designed for key life stages like pre- and post-pregnancy and menopause; categories the beauty industry has long overlooked. And with consumers seeking more value amid inflation, these wellness gifts also offer practical needs-based appeal.

Wall Street’s take

Ulta won’t be riding the wellness wave alone: Other major retailers are racing to capture the same growing demand.

Bath & Body Works is rolling out more wellness products of its own, while Target is also turning to wellness after a rough year. With its partnership with Ulta ending in August, Target is considering giving more floor space to wellness, a shift that could help put the retailer back on steadier footing.

But Wall Street likes how Ulta looks. UBS just raised its price target on expectations of steady earnings momentum, conservative guidance that leaves room for upside, strong holiday trends, and continued market-share gains. The firm also believes Ulta’s margins will improve next fiscal year as selling, general, and administrative expenses ease, supporting higher EPS estimates ahead.

In other words, the glow-up might just be getting started.—SY

• Apollo Global is building up its cash reserves and fleeing risky assets as it prepares for volatility ahead.
• “Big Short” investor Michael Burry won’t stop taking swings at Nvidia—this time blaming its “power hungry” chips for thwarting the US’s chances in the AI war.
• Coinbase is acquiring prediction markets startup The Clearing Company as it continues to invest in the nascent industry.
• Here’s why Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan thinks AI is starting to play a bigger and bigger role in boosting the economy.
• Janus Henderson is being taken private by Nelson Peltz’s Trian Fund Management in a $7.4 billion deal.
• These are the top ten hedge funds industry watchers have their eye on in 2026.

It’s mighty quiet out there this week, with no earnings announcements whatsoever and a veritable dearth of economic reports.

Tomorrow’s the only big day of data worth watching, with a focus on industrial info: We’ll get a delayed look at Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for October, as well as the usual November version of the report, plus the Durable Goods Orders reading. We’ll also get some insight into consumer confidence via the Conference Board, and a deep dive into the economy with the delayed Q3 GDP report.