If you’ve made travel plans anytime soon, you might want to reconsider them.

Airports are in full meltdown mode as spring break collides with Easter and Passover travel, with security lines snaking out the door and around the corner. The problem is staffing shortages tied to the ongoing partial government shutdown: roughly 10% of TSA workers have called out, many after missing a March 13 paycheck.

In the midst of all this, a dizzying array of headlines arrived today that would make anyone cancel their plane ticket and hop a bus instead:

• LaGuardia shut down after an Air Canada jet struck a firetruck, killing two pilots and injuring dozens.
• Newark briefly halted operations after a reported burning smell triggered a tower evacuation.
• The Trump administration is sending ICE agents to help manage TSA lines at major airports.

Stocks are shrugging it off

Despite the operational mess, airline stocks are still taking off: American rose 3.74%, United popped 4.52%, Delta climbed 2.85%, Spirit jumped 5.88%, and Frontier surged 9.43%.

One key driver was oil prices, which fell after President Trump signaled a potential de-escalation with Iran, easing concerns around fuel costs.

But airlines were maintaining their momentum before Trump’s announcement: Recent earnings from Delta, United, and JetBlue showed strong customer demand, with carriers raising guidance despite cost pressures. Delta went so far as to declare that it currently has the strongest balance sheet in its history.

The real key to their success: premium seating. Since January 2020, higher-end seats on domestic flights grew 27%, compared to a 10% increase in economy. For airlines, it’s a win-win situation: These seats often generate twice as much revenue as regular seats, but don't take up much additional space, propping up margins.

Two tickets to paradise

Trump’s announcement lifted the entire airline sector today, but performance is starting to diverge beneath the surface.

Delta and United are emerging as clear leaders as they lean into premium seating. Both carriers are generating more growth from premium cabins than economy, and that shift has translated into stronger profitability relative to peers. Delta is taking it a step further, with CEO Ed Bastian signaling that virtually all new seat growth will be focused on premium, rather than the main cabin.

Loyalty is another key differentiator. Airlines with stronger rewards ecosystems and repeat business are better positioned to hold pricing power, especially if fuel costs remain volatile.

Ultimately, today’s tailwind from oil may be temporary, while airport conditions could worsen amid the government shutdown. In this volatile environment, investors should watch which airlines can remain profitable even as conditions shift.—SY

🟢 What’s up

• Palantir climbed 6.78% on news the Pentagon will adopt its Maven AI system as a core platform for weapons targeting.
• Synopsys gained 2.89% after Elliott Investment Management revealed a multibillion-dollar stake in the chip-design software company.
• Amazon rose 2.38% thanks to Project Hail Mary delivering an $80.5 million debut, marking a record opening for Amazon MGM Studios.
• DoorDash added 2.13% as it rolled out gas relief payments for drivers to offset rising fuel costs.
• Apogee Therapeutics surged 19.99% following positive Phase 2 results for its atopic dermatitis treatment.
• Norwegian jumped 6.17%, Royal Caribbean popped 5.81%, and Carnival moved 5.51% higher as easing tensions in Iran improved travel outlook.
• Super Micro Computer rose 5.16%, rebounding from recent losses tied to its cofounder’s indictment.
• Tesla rallied 3.5% after Elon Musk unveiled a joint venture with xAI and SpaceX to build an AI-chip manufacturing plant.

What’s down

• FuboTV fell 2.65% after disclosing plans for a 1-for-12 reverse stock split.
• Estée Lauder dropped 7.71% on reports of a potential deal with Spanish beauty firm Puig Brands.

Ever since Kalshi and Polymarket began offering sports bets on their platforms, they’ve been nothing but problems for OGs like DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment, the parent company behind FanDuel. Both have watched customers head out the door as the popularity of prediction markets has risen, pushing DraftKings shares 39.39% lower over the last 12 months, while Flutter has fallen 54.61%.

But, much like a gambler putting it all on Iowa to win March Madness, sports-betting stocks have a chance to pull off a big upset.

The Wall Street Journal reported today that Sen. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., and Sen. John Curtis, R-Utah, are introducing a bill to ban entities regulated by the CFTC—aka, prediction markets—from listing contracts related to sporting events. The ban would be great news for DraftKings, which is why shares popped 1.12% today, while Flutter rose 4.36%.

The bill is the latest in a growing chorus among lawmakers to regulate prediction markets. Just last week, Kalshi was temporarily banned in Nevada, and Arizona filed criminal charges against the company for operating an illegal gambling business.

DraftKings and Flutter both rolled out their own prediction markets late last year in an attempt to capitalize on the boom, but Kalshi and Polymarket remain the dominant forces in the nascent industry. If Congress can lend the incumbent companies a hand and bounce the newcomers from the sports-betting industry, it will be one shining moment for DraftKings and Flutter shareholders.—MR

The war in Iran, threats of stagflation, and the cancellation of the latest season of The Bachelorette are enough to send anyone sprinting for a safe haven. But after years of strong gains, gold is in a rut at the very moment the precious metal should be outshining the market.

Gold has fallen roughly 20% from its all-time high in early January, officially dipping into bear market territory at one point today. Things got really bad last week, when gold futures declined 10%, their worst single-week performance in 14 years.

What’s gone wrong with gold?

• Bond yields have surged, and since gold doesn’t pay interest, the precious metal has become less precious in the eyes of investors.
• Similarly, when the US dollar rises—as it has recently, with investors pouring money into the global reserve currency—gold tends to move in the opposite direction.
• Some central banks, which have been big buyers of gold in recent years, might be selling their stash in order to offset the costs of higher oil prices.
• After surging 60% in 2025, some investors are taking profits, or are just plain wary that the metal can’t rise much higher.

There’s one last reason for gold’s slump: TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out). Many traders may be hesitating to reallocate their portfolios and seek the safety of gold, instead betting that the president will announce a policy reversal any day now.

On that note, gold jumped this morning after President Trump postponed strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure, helping to pare back some previous losses, before the commodity lost some ground later in the trading session. But even if the geopolitical quagmire continues, analysts are still bullish on gold long term, thanks to central banks continuing to buy bullion in bulk.

“Given the macroeconomic and political uncertainties beyond the risks arising from the US-Iran conflict, we continue to hold a positive view on gold,” wrote UBS Global Head of Equities Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi in a note earlier this month.

Stocks are polishing up nicely

One beneficiary of gold’s lackluster performance: Stocks.

Morgan Stanley Chief Equity Strategist Mike Wilson pointed out in a recent note that the S&P 500-to-gold price ratio jumped roughly 12% after the Iran conflict began. A higher ratio means that investors are comparatively optimistic about stocks, despite the geopolitical crisis and fears of rising inflation.

The silver gold lining: Gold’s decline may have less to do with the fundamentals of the asset itself, and more to do with the fact that investors just aren’t that worried about the Iran conflict and other macro headwinds.

Let’s hope they’re right.—LB

• A jury just found Elon Musk guilty of defrauding Twitter shareholders as part of his original takeover in 2022, with estimated damages around $2.5 billion.
• Berkshire Hathaway just took a $1.8 billion stake in Japanese insurer Tokio Marine, marking new CEO Greg Abel’s first big move since Warren Buffett’s retirement.
• BlackRock CEO Larry Fink is urging Americans to invest as a hedge for ongoing labor market disruption due to AI.
• Some good news for once: Goldman Sachs reduced its 12-month recession probability from 35% down to 30%.
• And some bad news: Not only are we not getting a rate cut, but we might actually end up with a rate hike.
• Here’s why healthcare has become the most resilient sector of the labor market.

Economic reports: It’s a slow week for economic readings, but two of the headliners arrive tomorrow in the form of the S&P flash PMI readings for services and manufacturing activity in March. There’s plenty of Fedspeak to listen for, however, and Federal Reserve governor Michael Barr will keep things rolling.

Earnings announcements: GameStop and KB Home

Everything else: AI startup Anthropic and the Department of Defense head to court. Anthropic has asked for a preliminary injunction against the Pentagon preventing its designation as a supply chain risk. Judging by early court filings, prepare to see some serious fireworks.