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Blue Origin's galactic blunder
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Plus, small banks are big winners.
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Good afternoon. It’s 4/20, but psychedelic stocks have stolen the spotlight from their stoner counterparts.

On Saturday, President Trump signed an executive order supporting the use of psychedelic drugs such as LSD, psilocybin, and ibogaine for mental health disorders. Shares of psychedelic drugmakers like Compass Pathways, AtaiBeckley, and GH Research all soared at least 17% today.

Attempts to reach cannabis companies for comment were met with OOO bouncebacks due to “the itis.”

Lucy Brewster, Sissy Yan & Mark Reeth

In today’s newsletter, we’ll take a look at:

  • Blue Origin’s big space snafu
  • Jersey Mike’s will make its public debut
  • Small banks are once again a big business

MARKETS

Nasdaq

24,404.39

S&P

7,109.14

Dow

49,442.56

10-Year

4.250%

Oil

$86.85

Bitcoin

$76,182.98

Data is provided by

*Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 4:00pm ET. Here's what these numbers mean.

  • Iran: Hopes for peace faded over the weekend after Iran re-closed the Strait of Hormuz and the US seized an Iranian tanker. Vice President JD Vance will head to Pakistan for negotiations set to begin tomorrow, though at this point it’s not clear if his Iranian counterparts will even be there, and President Trump said he probably won’t extend the ceasefire due to end on Wednesday.
  • Stocks: Equities gapped down at the open as traders digested news from the Middle East. Indexes pared their losses, though the Nasdaq snapped its 13-day winning streak—but small stocks continued to rally on the Russell 2000.
  • Everything else: Crude prices surged, while bitcoin started the day way down before staging an impressive comeback.
 

SPACE RACE

Blue Origin rocket takeoff

Manuel Mazzanti/Getty Images

Jeff Bezos’s second-favorite child, Blue Origin, had an important job this weekend: Carry AST SpaceMobile’s BlueBird 7 satellite into space. The launch looked successful at first glance, but the rocket’s upper stage malfunctioned, resulting in the satellite being deployed too low in orbit.

AST stock fell faster than that satellite, which is likely incinerating in the atmosphere at this very moment: Shares plunged 5.3% today, as investors questioned whether the satellite company can really make it in the uber-competitive space race against SpaceX’s Starlink and Amazon’s Leo.

The silver lining: While the stellar misfire is certainly not a great look for either AST or Blue Origin, which is privately owned, the financial damage is limited, since the satellite was insured. Despite today’s decline, AST has still soared 246.3% over the past 12 months.

Shoot for the stars, and if you miss, shareholders will punish you

When kids play astronaut, they (probably) aren’t dreaming of building cellphone towers in space—but that’s what the major space players are focused on right now.

The goal is to create a space-based cellular network that would connect directly to cell phones, which would address coverage gaps in rural regions and developing markets. It’s a hugely lucrative market, given global telecom is a nearly trillion dollar industry.

AST’s goal is to launch 45 satellites by the end of 2026, and eventually over 90 to achieve worldwide coverage. That’s why every single launch is important to investors, even when the actual financial loss isn’t that significant.

Zoom out: AST is still way behind Musk’s Starlink, which has already launched thousands of satellites. But one fumble doesn’t necessarily undermine the fundamentals that have pushed the stock to astronomical highs over the past year. Its median price target among analysts is $97—19.75% higher than shares trade today.

But if there’s one thing we’ve learned from space stocks, it’s that it’s a bumpy ride to the top.—LB

Sponsored By Capital Group

STOCKS

The biggest winners and losers on the stock market today

            

🟢 What’s up

  • Marvell Technology jumped 5.83% on reports it’s in talks with Google to develop AI chips focused on inference efficiency (whatever that means).
  • USA Rare Earth surged 13.18% as it struck a $2.8 billion deal for Serra Verde, advancing its push to build a vertically integrated rare earth supply chain.
  • Insulation producer TopBuild climbed 19.48% after QXO agreed to acquire it for $17 billion in a deal that includes a 23% premium.
  • Nektar Therapeutics rallied 18.25% after posting strong Phase 2b data, with nearly 40% of patients seeing significant improvement in alopecia areata.
  • Cannabis stocks lit up on 4/20: Tilray Brands rose 4.23%, Canopy Growth climbed 5.26%, and Curaleaf Holdings gained 11.86%.

What’s down

  • Data center company Fermi fell 17.56% on the news that CEO Toby Neugebauer is stepping down.
  • American Airlines slipped 4.23% after it denied merger talks with United Airlines, while rising fuel cost concerns pressured the sector.
  • Speaking of fuel costs, Royal Caribbean lost 1.12% and Norwegian Cruise Lines sank 3.48% on fears that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed for a while yet.
  • Cleveland-Cliffs dropped 2.11% despite beating earnings expectations, with delays in a deal with POSCO weighing on sentiment.

STOCK OF THE DAY

Jersey Mike's sign

Kevin Carter/Getty Images

Jersey Mike’s will soon be a New Yorker, finding a new home on Wall Street after the sub shop goes public.

The second-largest sandwich chain in the country confidentially filed for an IPO today, setting the stage for the first restaurant IPO since Black Rock Coffee Bar last September. That’s not a particularly glowing comparison: Black Rock shares have tumbled over 48% since their public debut, underscoring the difficulties the restaurant industry currently faces. Fast food and fast casual companies across the board are struggling to balance the cheaper, healthier options that consumers want with rising input costs.

Blackstone, which took a majority stake in Jersey Mike’s back in 2024, seems confident. That deal valued the sandwich maker at $8 billion, but Bloomberg reports that the IPO would value it at $12 billion, which would make it the ninth-largest restaurant in the US by market cap. According to financial filings cited by CNBC, Jersey Mike’s reported a 10.6% YoY increase in revenue last year, though its profits shrank by about 23%.

That’s a mixed bag, but there is opportunity for Mike to make his mark. The company’s biggest competitor, Subway, has recently reported declining sales and has been closing locations, while Jersey Mikes has plans to expand throughout the UK and Ireland this year. And while it’s far too early to know if Jersey Mike’s has what it takes to hang on Wall Street, let’s be real—its sandwiches are already miles better than the slop Subway has been putting on its buns.—MR

What is the greatest and best national sandwich chain in the US? (Yes, we know your local guy does an incredible Reuben on rye, but we’re not counting him).

Subway
Jersey Mike's
Jimmy John's
Firehouse Subs
Potbelly
McAlister's Deli
Charleys Philly Steaks

FINANCIALS

Photo collage showing 4 large skyscrapers representing big banks towering over a small bank in a classical revival style in the middle.

Morning Brew Design, Photos: Adobe Stock

When you think of banks, you probably picture the towering skyscrapers of Goldman Sachs or Morgan Stanley looming over Wall Street. But while JPMorgan and friends dominate CNBC chyrons, smaller players are quietly rallying.

Since the start of the year, the KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index, which tracks 50 banks with under $100 billion in assets, is up 9.17%, according to the Wall Street Journal. It’s outperforming the KBW Nasdaq Bank Index, which tracks large-cap US banks and is up only 4.14%.

One reason: Loan growth is making a comeback. For a while, smaller businesses held off on borrowing amid policy uncertainty and shifting economic conditions. Now, commercial and industrial lending is beginning to recover, with many regional banks signaling a more constructive outlook for the rest of the year.

That rebound also helps on the margin side. Regional banks are typically more sensitive to interest rates than bigger banks because their deposit bases are less stable, forcing them to raise funding costs quickly when rates climb. But stronger loan growth can help offset those pressures, improving profitability even as rate expectations shift.

Finally, a long-expected wave of bank mergers that has been delayed by geopolitical tensions and market volatility could pick back up if conditions stabilize, providing another tailwind for regional bank stocks.

Don’t sleep on the giants

Before you write off the giants, though—they’re doing just fine. The biggest banks have built more diversified, resilient business models, giving them multiple ways to generate revenue across economic cycles.

They’re proving it in earnings reports: trading desks are thriving amid higher volatility, while investment banking is rebounding as deal pipelines improve. Across the largest banks, revenue rose 17% year over year, while dealmaking fees jumped 29%. And with capital rules expected to ease, many analysts foresee a stronger pipeline of deals ahead.

Surprisingly, banks are also leaning into private credit, with more than $185 billion of combined exposure—about 20% of which is held by regional banks. Rather than viewing it as a risk, executives see opportunity: As some nonbank lenders pull back amid redemptions and tighter conditions, banks both big and small are stepping in to fill the gap.

Bottom line: Regional banks are benefiting from a lending rebound, while big banks are cashing in on trading, deals, and new credit opportunities. The financials sector is trailing the broader market in 2026, but with momentum building on multiple fronts, it looks set for a serious comeback.—SY

Sponsored By Capital Group

NEWS

Around the market

              

CALENDAR

What is happening in the world of finance tomorrow

         

Economic reports: The spotlight is on Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s nominee for Federal Reserve Chair, who will appear before the US Senate Banking Committee for a confirmation hearing that is sure to grab headlines. Also, we’ve got US retail sales, pending home sales, and US leading economic indicators.

Earnings announcements: The earnings season begins in earnest tomorrow, with reports from General Electric, UnitedHealth, RTX, Intuitive Surgical, Interactive Brokers, Capital One Financial, ASM, DR Horton, MSCI, EQT, Halliburton, and United Airlines.

RECS

Reading material

        

Meet the one company that is responsible for half of the growth in S&P 500 earnings expectations since the beginning of the war with Iran.

Tariff refunds begin today: Here’s who gets their money back first, and why individual Americans are unlikely to get a piece of the pie.

Welcome to ‘Scambodia,’ where cybercrime powered by enslaved workers has become a leading industry in Cambodia.

When the Strait is finally opened for good, it will be very bad for most of the energy industry—but these five oil refiners will actually profit.

What should you say to someone who asks your salary? One etiquette expert has the modern answer.

Level up your weekly debrief—or your next client meeting—with Capital Group’s Chart Stories. Get presentation-ready visuals and downable talking points to help you deliver complex market data with confidence. Visit Chart Stories. *

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