If Donald Trump’s goal was to show everyone that he was serious about his campaign promises, his first day in the Oval Office has accomplished just that.

Here are a few of the new president's policy announcements, and how they’ve helped (or hurt) markets today:

• Trump suggested a 25% across-the-board tariff on Mexico and Canada as soon as Feb. 1 in retaliation for “allowing vast numbers of people” to cross the US border. Mexico’s peso and Canada’s dollar both fell on the news. The US dollar dropped Monday, before recovering throughout the day today.
• The president declared an “energy emergency,” and promised to “drill baby, drill” during his inaugural address. Oil declined today on the news that more supply could be on the way, while oil stocks rose slightly across the board, and renewable energy stocks plummeted.
• Trump plans to pour billions into an AI infrastructure initiative led by a joint venture combining OpenAI, SoftBank, and Oracle. Oracle shares rose 7.21%.
• He reversed one of his predecessor’s executive orders mandating that half of all new vehicles sold in the US by 2030 had to be electric. Tesla shares fell 0.57%.
• Trump also signed an executive order to delay TikTok’s ban—keeping the app alive for all of you who don’t follow Morning Brew on Instagram reels.

But what Trump didn’t say moved markets just as much as what he did.

• Trump held off on imposing heavy tariffs, giving investors hope that maybe those tariffs won’t be imminent, or won't be as harsh as Trump’s previously proposed 60%. “In our base case, we expect the effective tariff rate on China to rise to 25-30% (from 10% currently). We also expect measures to protect technological interests, rules limiting transshipment, and tariffs on EU autos and pharmaceuticals,” explained CIO Equities Europe at UBS Rolf Ganter. Chinese stocks like BYD rose 3.77%.
• Michael Saylor’s bitcoin trojan horse software company MicroStrategy dropped 1.87%, despite the fact that bitcoin reached a new record high yesterday. Why? Trump didn’t mention bitcoin at all during his inaugural address.

The big picture: If there’s one thing we know for sure, it’s that traders are hanging on Trump’s every word. And given his frequent policy flip flops (just look at TikTok), it’s already become clear that investors are in for a roller coaster ride over the next four years.—LB

🟢 What’s up

• Who said Scotch tape is boring? 3M rose 4.18% following a strong earnings report.
• Vistra climbed 8.48% on the news that a fire at one of the clean energy provider’s battery storage facilities had been doused.
• Urban Outfitters jumped 9.87% and hit a new all-time high after Morgan Stanley upgraded the retailer to “overweight,” citing its strong sales growth.
• Moderna popped 5.37% following an announcement that the US government has provided the pharma company with a $590 million grant to develop a bird flu vaccine.
• Reddit gained 7.53% after Raymond James analysts upped their price target for the social media company from $150 to $200.

What’s down

• Apple is feeling the pressure: Reports that iPhone sales in China sank last quarter, combined with a downgrade from Jefferies analysts AND a downgrade from Loop Capital, pushed shares 3.19% lower.
• Walgreens Boots Alliance tumbled 9.19% on news that the DOJ is suing the drugstore chain for its role in the opioid epidemic.
• Trump Media & Technology Group has climbed leading up to its namesake’s inauguration, but in a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” moment, it sank 11.09% the day after Trump took office.

If you’re ever trying to reinvent yourself, just think about how the crypto industry went from being relegated to regulatory limbo, embroiled in scandal, and shunned by Wall Street to getting the full hype treatment from the president himself in just a few short years.

Here’s why crypto bros are doing another victory lap today:

• Trump launched his own meme coin—$Trump—last Friday night, which reached a $72 billion market cap in just two days. On Sunday, Melania launched her own token, which also quickly amassed a $5.5 billion market cap. But some industry insiders are rolling their eyes, fearing that the stunt will undermine crypto’s newfound respectability.
• The SEC, under Trump, is launching a brand new “crypto task force” to develop clear regulations for the industry.
• Retail trading platform eToro is riding the crypto hype and planning to go public via IPO this year.
• TradFi wants in on the action, too—Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan told CNBC that the financial services industry will get into crypto payments if regulators let them.

The excitement adds up to another all-time high: Bitcoin hit a new record of $109,350 yesterday shortly before Trump’s inauguration.

Should you buy bitcoin?

If you ask bulls, this is just the beginning of the crypto mania. And they have a point: A lot is going their way right now, setting up blue chip cryptos for more and more mainstream adoption. Some price targets from bitcoin evangelists are as high as multiple millions.

Buyer beware: Crypto’s inherent volatility is rewarding its investors right now, but remember that the pendulum will likely swing back again, even if the asset class is heading higher in the long term. Some prominent crypto investors even warn that a correction could be coming soon.—LB

• Davos has begun, with billionaires and world leaders descending on Switzerland to talk about, what else, AI.
• DOGE has already brought big changes: Co-head Vivek Ramaswamy has announced he’s leaving the new government entity, and may soon announce he’s running for governor of Ohio.
• Reeks of desperation: Stellantis is re-focusing on its Chrysler and Dodge brands following the December departure of its CEO.
• Miracle drugs like Wegovy could become a common occurrence as healthcare embraces technology.
• It’s not over yet: Winter storms are bringing freezing weather across the southern US, grounding flights and raising natural gas prices.
• An investor's guide to the Trump administration and all the policies coming down the pipeline.

Do you like economic indicators? Then lucky you: Tomorrow, we’ve got the US Leading Indicators report, an amalgamation of data from the Labor Department, Census Bureau, the S&P 500, and more, all jammed together in an attempt to glean a signal from the noise. While most economic reports provide information over the past week or month, this one tries to predict the future, and can provide investors with a heads-up of any big swings coming to the US economy.

As for earnings, we’ve got a boatload. Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, Abbott Laboratories, Halliburton, Kinder Morgan, and Alcoa are just a few of the names dropping their latest numbers. But here are two highlights you should be keeping an eye on:

Before the open

The Travelers Companies usually goes unnoticed during earnings season, but this insurer will be squarely in the spotlight following the disastrous wildfires in LA. Shareholders will want to know exactly how much the company is on the hook for, though thankfully it’s in excellent financial shape, so any damage done to its bottom line this quarter should be absorbed with relative ease. Consensus: $6.26 EPS, $11.04 billion in revenue.

After the close

Discover Financial Services has big plans to better compete in the fast-evolving financial world. Its most important endeavor at the moment is finalizing a $35.3 billion acquisition of Capital One that Wall Street was unsure would pass regulatory muster under the Biden administration—but a second Trump administration is a whole different story. Keep an ear out for details on how the purchase is proceeding, as well as how Discover plans to contend with new competitors like red-hot Affirm Holdings. Consensus: $3.26 EPS, $4.39 billion in revenue.