After months of suspense and countless Polymarket predictions, President Trump has finally nominated the next chair of the Federal Reserve: Kevin Warsh. If confirmed by the Senate, the 55-year-old will take the hot seat after Jerome Powell vacates mid-May.

Trump was all compliments on his pick, posting on Truth Social, “I have known Kevin for a long period of time, and have no doubt that he will go down as one of the GREAT Fed Chairmen, maybe the best.”

Warsh’s hawkish, tough-on-inflation track record gave investors pause today, while giving the poor US dollar a lift. As for what’s next, that will depend on if Warsh can maintain the Fed’s independence amid Trump’s relentless pressure campaign for lower rates.

Here’s more info about Warsh that will help you place your next round of wagers on Wall Street and beyond.

Who is this guy?

Warsh grew up in upstate New York, studied at Stanford, then Harvard Law, and worked as a banker at Morgan Stanley. In 2006 at the wee age of 35, he became the youngest Fed governor in history. He was a contender for Fed chair back in 2017, but Trump decided he looked too fresh-faced for the job.

What does he stand for?

On paper, at least, Warsh has been a staunch advocate of keeping inflation in check—and politics out of the picture. He even penned a speech titled “An Ode to Independence” back in 2010, in which he opined, “Any attempt to influence inappropriately the conduct of Fed policy would yield a strong and forceful rebuke.”

Lately, though, Warsh has warmed up to Trump’s talking points, embracing rate cuts and waving off worries that tariffs will inflate prices. Plus, throughout his career, Warsh has taken pot shots at the central bank, particularly its $6.6 trillion “bloated balance sheet” that he recently vowed to put on a crash diet.

What does this mean for the Fed?

Just because we’ve got a nominee doesn’t mean the drama is over. After a criminal investigation was launched against Powell over the Fed’s headquarter renovations, even Trump’s own party is crying foul. North Carolina’s Republican Senator Thom Tillis said he would block any of Trump’s Fed picks until Powell’s subpoena is resolved.

Although JPow, at 72, is likely eager to retire from his role as Trump’s favorite punching bag, speculation is swirling that he might stick around—his chairmanship ends this year, but he can remain a Fed governor until 2028—purely to avoid any hint that he’s bolting in hopes that the probe vanishes with him.

The upshot of all this is that we can all stay tuned for plenty more Fed intrigue in the coming months.—JD

🟢 What’s up

• Apple eked out a 0.46% gain after beating Wall Street estimates on revenue and earnings, though CEO Tim Cook warned that a global memory crunch could pressure margins going forward.
• Sandisk jumped 6.85% after issuing a stronger-than-expected revenue and earnings outlook, pointing to improving demand across memory markets.
• Verizon gained 11.78% thanks to the addition of 616,000 net postpaid phone subscribers in Q4, a six-year high.
• Ugg parent Deckers Outdoor climbed 19.46% after reporting record revenue and profit in fiscal Q3 and raising its full-year outlook.
• Medical technology company Stryker advanced 4.27% following a Q4 earnings beat and guidance for solid revenue growth in 2025, driven by strength in its vascular business.
• GameStop rose 4.69% after unveiling plans to acquire a publicly traded company, potentially in the consumer or retail space.

What’s down

• Newmont slid 11.49%, Kinross Gold lost 13.76%, and Freeport-McMoRan sank 7.52% as gold and silver prices tumbled following signs that President Trump’s pick for Fed chair could ease concerns over central bank independence.
• Western Digital declined 10.12% despite posting better-than-expected fiscal Q2 results.
• Visa dropped 3% even after topping fiscal Q1 estimates, as the total number of processed transactions came in below consensus.
• KLA slipped 15.24% after beating earnings expectations, with investors unimpressed by management’s outlook.
• SoFi Technologies sank 6.36% even after reporting Q4 revenue growth of 39%.
• Video game stocks tumbled on the news that Google has developed an AI model that creates digital worlds with written prompts. Unity Software dropped 24.22%, Take-Two Interactive lost 7.93%, and Nintendo fell 4.79%.

If you’ve been itching to invest in the hottest AI startups in the world, you may not have to wait much longer.

OpenAI and Anthropic are both jockeying to be the first major AI unicorn to go public, and the Wall Street Journal reported today that OpenAI is eyeing an IPO as soon as Q4 to beat Anthropic to the finish line.

If there’s one person bringing unbridled enthusiasm to the IPO process, it’s OpenAI CEO Sam Altman: “Am I excited to be a public company CEO? 0%,” he said in a Big Technology podcast interview back in December. “Am I excited for OpenAI to be a public company? In some ways, I am, and in some ways I think it’d be really annoying.”

Despite Altman’s palpable disinterest, his reasons for taking OpenAI public are obvious: There’s serious pent up retail demand for uber-powerful AI startups, and whoever debuts first will likely ride the wave of excitement the furthest.

For years, the IPO market stalled while interest rates remained high and private capital flowed. But now, the tide is turning as a wave of high-profile IPOs are expected to hit the market in 2026, including Canva, Databricks, and Stripe. Don’t forget SpaceX, either: Elon Musk’s space startup is also planning to go public as early as this summer in a debut that would value the company over $1 trillion, according to the WSJ.

Right now, the valuations of these companies are soaring due to hype about their potential, but once they’re public companies, they’ll be subject to a new level of scrutiny—and that’s when the real race begins.—LB

Washington just put Venezuelan crude back on the table, and Big Oil is deciding whether or not to take a seat.

Yesterday, the Trump administration issued a broad general license allowing US oil companies to expand their operations in Venezuela, easing restrictions across everything from production and transport to processing, as Washington looks to revive the country’s energy sector following the US capture of former president Nicolás Maduro.

The timing of this policy shift matters for two major US oil producers reporting earnings this week: Chevron and Exxon Mobil.

Chevron

Chevron beat both top- and bottom-line expectations, though profits still fell 14% year over year as lower oil prices weighed on results. Production was the bright spot, with output up 21% from a year ago.

Domestically, Chevron produces about 1 million barrels per day in the Permian Basin, but growth there is slowing. That’s pushing investor attention toward international opportunities in Kazakhstan, Guyana, and now, Venezuela.

Chevron is the only US major currently operating in Venezuela under an existing license, with roots there stretching back decades, giving it a unique foothold if production ramps up under the new general license.

Venezuela still accounts for only 10% of Chevron’s output, but the company has suggested it could raise Venezuelan production by up to 50% over the next 18 to 24 months if conditions allow.

Exxon Mobil

Exxon also beat Wall Street’s targets for the quarter, powered by strong performance in the Permian Basin and Guyana, and reported its highest annual production in over 40 years.

But unlike Chevron, Exxon has no active operations in Venezuela, and little appetite to change that. CEO Darren Woods has described the Venezuelan oil landscape as “uninvestable” without significant changes, citing past asset seizures.

Beyond the operational hurdles, oil companies like Exxon face legal uncertainty. Lawmakers have warned that deals struck now could be challenged by Congress, overturned by future US administrations, or disputed by a future Venezuelan government.

For now, Venezuela is less a windfall than a wild card, and Big Oil has to decide whether the payoff is worth sitting at a very unstable table.—SY

• Entering the Elon-verse: SpaceX, Tesla, and xAI are in talks to merge.
• Wealth inequality and the K-shaped economy are worse than ever.
• PPI rose more than expected last month, in the latest sign that tariff costs are seeping into prices.
• Eli Lilly is building a $3.5 billion manufacturing plant to focus on obesity drugs.
• American Express is trying to woo even wealthier customers.
• A former Google engineer was found guilty of stealing AI trade secrets for China.

January is nearly over, and it’s been a wild month from start to finish. Here’s hoping February brings a little more calm to markets.

All eyes turn to the labor market next week, with a series of reports culminating on Friday with the January jobs report. And while the Fed’s decision is now behind us, central banks around the globe will make their latest policy decisions: The Reserve Bank of Australia makes its call on Tuesday, and both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England set rates on Thursday.

Monday: ISM manufacturing report, plus earnings from Palantir, Walt Disney, NXP Semiconductors, Tyson Foods, and Teradyne

Tuesday: ISM services report, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, and earnings from AMD, Merck, PepsiCo, Amgen, Pfizer, Eaton, Nintendo, Emerson Electric, TransDigm, Mondelez, Chipotle, Electronic Arts, PayPal, Corteva, Take-Two Interactive, Super Micro Computer, and Foot Locker

Wednesday: The ADP employment report gives us a look at private payrolls, and we’ll also get earnings from Alphabet, Eli Lilly, AbbVie, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, Uber, Qualcomm, UBS, Boston Scientific, ARM, CME Group, GSK, and Snap

Thursday: The Initial jobless claims reading continues the week of labor market data, and we’ll hear from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic. As for earnings, tune in to learn more about Amazon, Shell, Sony, ConocoPhillips, BNP Paribas, Bristol-Myers Squibb, KKR, Intercontinental Exchange, Barrick Mining, Cigna, Fortinet, Roblox, Ares, Rockwell Automation, ArcelorMittal, Estée Lauder, Reddit, Atlassian, Blue Owl, Illumina, Affirm, and Peloton

Friday: The labor market bonanza concludes with the monthly US jobs report, plus the consumer credit report and a preliminary reading of consumer confidence for February. As for earnings, we’ve got Toyota, Under Armour, Philip Morris International, Société Générale, Ørsted, Centene, and AutoNation