The US government’s 43 days of quiet quitting are officially over—for now.

Today, the House approved a bill that brought an end to the longest government shutdown in history.

Tallying the damage

While the most catastrophic effects of the shutdown included extra long airport security lines, an economic data blackout, and halting of government benefits like SNAP, the stock market fared pretty well: The S&P 500 closed yesterday up some 2% since day one of the shutdown.

While shutdowns don’t necessarily wreck the economy, the downstream effects could sneak up on investors over the next few months. For one, key macro data like the October CPI and job reports might be gone forever, according to the White House. On top of that, this particular shutdown hit consumer sentiment hard, leading to bad vibes across the economy that could reverberate during the holiday shopping period.

“Investors are right to believe that we barely averted catastrophe,” explained Jeffrey Roach, Chief Economist for LPL Financial in a note. “Had the shutdown phase crept into the biggest shopping season of the year and during peak holiday travel, we would probably be talking about a greater chance of recession. Thankfully, we averted a bigger crisis.”

So what now?

Historically, the S&P 500 tends to make a full recovery after the government reopens. The index has risen an average of 11.5% one full year after a government shutdown, CNBC reported today. Zooming in, the index has posted an average return of 3.3% over the three months following a shutdown, and gained 7.8% in the six months afterward.

But what about the Fed? “With the US government likely to reopen imminently, markets are hoping for the resumption of official data to solidify their assessment of the Fed’s future rate decisions,” wrote Global Head of Equities at UBS Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi. “We continue to expect the US central bank to cut rates twice more between now and early 2026, providing a favorable backdrop for equities, quality bonds, and gold.”

Taking a T-break

One surprising victim of the end of the shutdown is cannabis stocks, which are falling hard today.

While the new funding bill reopened the government, it also includes provisions tightening regulations on THC hemp products. Tilray Brands fell 8.13%, Green Thumb Industries dropped 3.14%, and Trulieve Cannabis Corp. sank 8.58%.

And don’t forget: The spending bill only funds the government through January, so we could be doing all this again in a few short months.—LB

🟢 What’s up

• TKO rose 0.52% as the parent company of UFC signed a multiyear deal with Polymarket to integrate real-time prediction markets into live events.
• Sweetgreen climbed 10.72% after co-founder Nicolas Jammet purchased about $1 million worth of shares, a move seen as a vote of confidence in the salad chain.
• Planet Fitness popped 3.25% after the company outlined new two-year fiscal targets, calling for 6% to 7% annual club growth and mid-teens adjusted EBITDA expansion.
• Sealed Air gained 16.82% following reports that Clayton, Dubilier & Rice is weighing a take-private deal for the Bubble Wrap maker.
• Firefly Aerospace jumped 16.99% after posting strong Q3 earnings and raising its full-year guidance, citing momentum from new government and NASA contracts.

What’s down

• Robinhood fell 8.61% following a Wall Street Journal report that the brokerage will soon deliver cash to your doorstep.
• BioNTech tanked 7% after Pfizer announced plans to sell its remaining stake in its Covid-19 vaccine partner.
• Flutter Entertainment slipped 14.27% despite beating revenue and earnings expectations as the company cut its full-year guidance.
• Mobile technology company Ibotta topped revenue estimates, but still dropped 23.64% given that sales sank 15.6% year over year.
• Webtoon Entertainment fell 25.09% following a revenue miss and weak forecasts, raising concerns about slowing user engagement.
• Kodiak AI declined 18.56% after the autonomous-driving startup reported a significantly wider loss than expected, citing one-time merger-related charges.

Today’s a red-letter day for Starbucks: It’s Red Cup Day, when the coffee chain releases its annual holiday cups covered in festive designs. It’s something of a tradition for frappuccino aficionados to swing by their nearest ‘bucks and grab one, and the higher foot traffic provides a natural boost to sales as well. Placer.ai reported that last year’s Red Cup Day prompted a 42.4% increase in visits relative to an average Thursday.

That gives today’s strike by over 1,000 employees across the country a little more oomph. Baristas at 65 stores in 40 states walked off the job in order to bring Starbucks management to the negotiating table to ratify their collective bargaining agreement, a process that began back when the first Starbucks location unionized in 2021.

Starbucks doesn’t seem to be worried just yet: The company told Business Insider that the work stoppage includes fewer than 4% of its employees and less than 1% of its 16,864 US locations. But shareholders have to be getting antsy: This is the second strike in under 12 months, and the last big stoppage in December 2024 expanded to 5,000 employees at hundreds of stores. Workers also walked out on Red Cup Day in 2022 and 2023.

CEO Brian Niccol took the helm last August, and while he promised to turn things around, Starbucks shares have sunk about 8.6% since his tenure began. The longer today’s strike lasts, the harder his job is going to get.—MR

The House of Mouse is learning that not every story comes with a fairy-tale ending.

Disney fell 7.75% after reporting mixed fiscal Q4 results: The company beat earnings expectations, but missed on revenue. Here’s how Disney’s core businesses performed last quarter:

• Entertainment: Operating income for streaming services surged 39% thanks in part to price hikes, but fell 21% for linear networks, dragging overall entertainment revenue down 6%.
• Experiences: Revenue rose 6% despite a sluggish economy, with cruise demand leading the way.
• Sports: Revenue for Disney’s sports division, led by ESPN, climbed 3%, while domestic operating income declined due to costs tied to the August launch of the new ESPN app and higher programming expenses.

Enter the villain

Another factor weighing on Mickey’s shoulders these days: A blackout battle with YouTube TV.

Since October 31, Disney’s TV networks, including ABC, FX, National Geographic, Disney Channel, and Freeform, have gone dark for roughly 10 million YouTube TV subscribers after the two sides failed to renew their carriage deal before the deadline.

At the center of the standoff is ESPN, Disney’s most valuable channel: Disney reportedly charges YouTube TV over $10 per subscriber per month to carry the sports network. YouTube TV wants a lower rate than the typical pay-TV provider, arguing it deserves a break as the only major distributor that’s still growing these days.

For YouTube TV, the blackout barely dents parent company Alphabet’s $3.3 trillion empire—meaning it can afford short-term pain if it means securing better long-term rates. Disney, meanwhile, has its own version of YouTube TV: Hulu with Live TV, which recently merged with Fubo, giving it a built-in safety net for viewers jumping ship. The clash ultimately pits Alphabet’s patience against Disney’s ecosystem, a showdown of deep pockets versus a deep catalog.

Who blinks first?

It’s day 14 of the Disney-YouTube TV blackout, now the longest carriage dispute in Disney’s history, surpassing last year’s DirecTV standoff. Analysts estimate the standoff is costing Disney about $30 million a week in lost carriage fees. But Disney appears willing to wait it out, with CFO Hugh Johnston stating on the earnings call that this impasse “could go for a little while.”

Still, Wall Street isn’t losing faith. Wells Fargo’s Steven Cahall said Disney’s results “indicate a strong FY26 with final EPS growth above initial guidance and solid direct-to-consumer net adds,” Seeking Alpha reported today. Cahall noted that the fiscal year 2026 and 2027 outlook likely has upside.

For now, it’s less ‘happily ever after’, and more ‘to be continued.’—SY

• Take a look at the new contribution limits for 401ks and IRAs in 2026.
• Profits may be surging for the Magnificent Seven, but AI startups like OpenAI are posting staggering losses.
• Strategy’s Michael Saylor said there’s “no doubt in my mind” that bitcoin will overtake gold within a decade.
• “Big Short” investor Michael Burry has deregistered his hedge fund, Scion Asset Management.
• Verizon is planning to cut 15,000 jobs.
• President Trump pardoned UK billionaire Joe Lewis, who was convicted in the US for insider trading.

The government may be open once again, but it’s going to take a minute for all the data to catch up. That means we still won’t get tomorrow’s previously scheduled PPI reading, or a look at retail sales. But we’ll be listening to Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speak for any hints on how the Fed feels about cutting interest rates without a month’s worth of data.

As for earnings, the only big name to keep an eye on is actually pretty small: Quantum Computing.