Even if you don’t tend to pay close attention to commodities, you’ve almost certainly spotted them in the news these past few weeks.

That’s because there’s perhaps no asset more directly tied with conflict in the Middle East than oil, and its price has been zig-zagging ever since Iran and Israel started exchanging missiles. In addition to upheaval on the other side of the globe, the decision by OPEC+ to maintain production rates, at the same time that demand has waned in markets like China, has pushed oil 5.90% lower this year.

Oil's not the only commodity that has had a tumultuous 2025. Trade war tensions, increasingly volatile weather patterns, and the continued buildout of AI technology have all contributed to a wild year for every commodity under the sun.

On the whole, commodity prices are expected to decrease 12% in 2025, and an additional 5% in 2026, according to the World Bank Group.

Metallic madness

When discussing commodities, we can’t forget about gold. The hot commodity has soared 28.31% this year so far and hit over 24 record highs—even after booming 33% in 2024.

The safe haven investment tends to rise during instances of geopolitical instability, which is something we’ve had plenty of this year. Purchases from central banks around the globe have poured fuel on the fire, and their demand has only been accelerating in recent years.

But gold certainly isn’t the only precious metal that’s been shining in 2025.

Silver has climbed 27.31%, copper has jumped 27.03%, and palladium has roared 27.94% higher this year. Unlike gold, these metals are not primarily held as safe haven assets, and their price is heavily driven by industrial demand. All three are used for vital technologies such as semiconductors and electric vehicles—two huge areas of demand.

Don’t forget about agricultural commodities. “Markets for several commodities—for example coffee, cocoa, and natural gas—have been buffeted by supply shortfalls or demand surges linked to extreme weather,” explained the World Bank’s latest commodity report.

Talk about hot commodities.—LB

🟢 What’s up

• Datadog jumped 14.92% on the news that the software stock will be added to the S&P 500.
• Tripadvisor popped 16.74% thanks to the revelation that activist investor Starboard Value has taken a 10% stake in the online travel company.
• Chipmakers climbed after the US rescinded its restrictions on exporting chip-design software to China. Synopsys gained 4.90%, while Cadence Design Systems rose 5.10%.
• Lucid jumped 5.37% after it reported 3,309 vehicle deliveries in Q2, a new quarterly record for the EV maker.
• Olo rose 13.58% after Thoma Bravo reportedly offered to take the restaurant software provider private for about $2 billion.
• Ethereum is so hot right now, and the market is rewarding any company focused on the cryptocurrency. Bitmine Immersion Technologies exploded another 135.29%, Bit Digital gained 11.79%, and SharpLink Gaming jumped 5.72%.
• Solar stocks cheered the advancement of the tax bill, which dropped the surprise excise tax on clean energy projects. First Solar rose 8.51%, Enphase Energy climbed 3.91%, and SolarEdge Technologies gained 16.69%.

What’s down

• Robinhood Markets dropped 3.65% after Datadog was added to the S&P 500. Shareholders were hoping the stock would finally join the index instead.
• Krispy Kreme fell 3.49% after its CFO announced his departure, the latest bit of bad news for the donut maker.

A week of labor market data ended on a surprisingly high note today. Here’s a quick recap of all the numbers you need to know:

Job openings rose to 7.77 million in May, up nicely from April’s 7.4 million and easily beating consensus estimates of 7.32 million.

But the ADP employment report revealed that private employers cut payrolls by 33,000 in June, well below forecasts of a 100,000 increase and marking the first monthly decline since March 2023.

Initial jobless claims fell to 233,000 this week, down from 237,000 the week prior and under estimates of 240,000. Continuing claims were unchanged week over week.

Finally, the monthly nonfarm payroll report revealed that there were 147,000 jobs created in June—higher than the upwardly revised 144,000 in May, and above forecasts of 110,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, down from 4.2% last month.

So, what does all that mean for you?

Broadly, it all points to a healthy labor market, which means the Fed has no reason to cut interest rates in July to bolster employment. Funny how good news like a strong employment situation means bad news for investors banking on rate cuts—but this week’s data was ultimately a huge relief, and indicates how well the labor market has withstood the turmoil of tariffs.

After surging nearly 44% over the past 12 months, gold prices couldn’t have further to run, right? Wrong—at least if you ask senior market strategist at the World Gold Council, Joseph Cavatoni.

Read on for his conversion with Brew Markets about the future of gold, edited for length and clarity.

What do you say to people who look at gold’s run and think, ‘I missed the rally, it’s too expensive now?’

As an organization, we don’t call the gold price. But we’re going to give you a strong case that investment in central banks will keep buying at paces that are strong.

JPMorgan’s making a case for $4,000/oz, and we’ll balance that with Citi, which is arguing a pullback of $3,000/oz.

The case remains strong for upside performance, and if you’re looking closely at the price, you can maybe pick your entry point a little better.

What is driving central banks around the world to keep buying gold?

First, they've got concerns around global inflation, even in their own homegrown economies. Second, they look at risk and uncertainty and its impact on the other assets they may be holding, which includes dollar-based assets.

And third, they need certainty around liquidity, and are making sure that when they are exercising liquidation of an asset for whatever the reason may be, they want to stabilize it using gold holdings so they could sell gold by their currency, like we saw in Turkey, two years back.

How do you see lower interest rates affecting the price of gold, when the Fed does eventually cut rates?

It'll overall lower the opportunity cost of holding assets away from gold. So it'll actually continue to support the case for investors to realize the value of holding gold as a diversifier in your portfolio.

Do you think bitcoin, aka “digital gold” will take market share away from gold as a safe-haven asset long term?

Bitcoin, first and foremost, is an interesting asset. What I’d say is that in terms of the characteristics of returns, diversification benefits, liquidity and overall portfolio impact is that it’s akin to a risk asset. It looks an awful lot like a tech stock.

During drawdowns, bitcoin will draw down like risk assets will, while gold actually holds its value.—LB

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US markets are closed for the Fourth of July, which means if you’re reading this stateside then you’ve basically already reached the long weekend! As for those too focused on the future to enjoy the present, next week is going to be a doozy.

Extremely early earnings reports begin to trickle in ahead of the new season, with a bunch of companies reporting next Thursday, including Delta Air Lines, ConAgra Foods, Levi Strauss, and WD-40.

As for the economic calendar, it’s pretty sparse. We’ve got the NFIB small business optimism index and the consumer credit report on Tuesday, wholesale inventories and the minutes from the last FOMC meeting on Wednesday, and initial jobless claims on Thursday.

But frankly, earnings and data don’t matter next week: All eyes will be on Wednesday, July 9 as President Trump’s tariff pause officially comes to an end. With only a handful of deals in the books and plenty of questions needing answers, investors will need to keep their heads on a swivel next week for any last-minute trade agreements, deadline extensions, and tariff drama.

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