Fresh off SpaceX’s blockbuster IPO, Wall Street may have to wait a little longer for the arrival of the next AI heavyweight: OpenAI is reportedly delaying its public debut until next year, despite confidentially filing earlier this month. The company said, “It may be a while,” before going public because there are “things we want to do that are likely easier as a private company.”

The news is weighing on some of its biggest partners: Oracle, which has staked much of its AI infrastructure strategy on a roughly $300 billion cloud deal with the company, fell 2.48%, while CoreWeave, which has a separate agreement worth about $22 billion, slipped 2.21%. Meanwhile, SoftBank, which owned roughly 13% of OpenAI as of February, lost 5.53%.

More to prove

For OpenAI, staying private may actually be the safer bet. CEO Sam Altman has repeatedly floated the idea of a $1 trillion valuation when it IPOs, but the company still has work to do before convincing public investors.

For starters, OpenAI is still trying to prove its business can scale efficiently. The company has committed roughly $1.4 trillion to AI infrastructure, but after missing multiple monthly revenue targets this year, investors will want evidence that all that spending can ultimately translate into sustainable free cash flow.

The timing doesn’t help, either, as investor appetite for AI has become far less forgiving. Just look at SpaceX: After soaring roughly 60% above its IPO price and briefly becoming one of the world’s most valuable companies, the stock has surrendered nearly all of those gains as enthusiasm cooled following its debut.

A crowded race

OpenAI isn’t just racing the IPO clock—it also has to fend off increasingly formidable rivals.

Anthropic has already pulled ahead on several key metrics. Its latest Series H funding round valued the company at roughly $965 billion, above OpenAI’s $852 billion valuation from March. The startup also reported a $47 billion annualized revenue run rate in May, compared with roughly $25 billion for OpenAI earlier this year.

At the same time, companies are increasingly turning to cheaper alternatives like DeepSeek and other open-source models as AI bills pile up, adding yet another challenge for OpenAI, which will need to find ways to lower costs to stay competitive.

Whether OpenAI made the right decision remains to be seen. Buying time has its benefits, but it isn’t free. The first AI company to crack the public markets will likely write Wall Street’s playbook for the sector. If that company is Anthropic, OpenAI may find itself trying to beat a benchmark it never got to define.—SY

🟢 What’s up

• Moderna gained 12.80% after unveiling its first in vivo CAR-T program that gets a body’s own T cells to fight autoimmune diseases.
• Software stocks ServiceNow, AppLovin, and Workday rose 9.85%, 6.99%, and 9.18%, respectively, as Wall Street rotated back into AI software names.
• Palantir Technologies climbed 5.28%, snapping a seven-day losing streak as Cathie Wood added shares across three ARK ETFs.
• SELLAS Life Sciences surged 17.66% amid buyout speculation following changes to executive severance agreements.
• Crocs advanced 7.47% after Piper Sandler upgraded the stock, calling its valuation attractive.
• Rocket Lab rose 4.77% after winning two NASA launch missions.
• SpaceX gained 0.15% on its addition to the Russell 1000, with inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 set for July 6.

What’s down

• ON Semiconductor fell 23.66% after announcing its largest acquisition ever—a nearly $7 billion deal for Synaptics.
• Micron slipped 6.69%, while SanDisk and Western Digital fell 10.46% and 13.17%, respectively, as investors took profits following the recent chip-sector rally.
• Bloom Energy dropped 18.48% after Jefferies argued rival FuelCell Energy offered a more attractive valuation.
• FedEx Freight declined 2.93% despite topping revenue expectations in its first earnings report as a standalone company.

Ever since ChatGPT arrived on the scene, being a successful investor has boiled down to one thing: betting on tech stocks. Now, however, it’s not so simple—and investors are starting to worry.

According to Barrons, a recent poll from the Allianz Center for the Future of Retirement revealed that only 25% of Americans believe that now is a good time to invest. That’s well below the 34% last quarter, and the lowest reading since the depths of the mid-2022 downturn.

Investor sentiment has taken a turn for the worse recently, sparking a big tech selloff as traders begin to fret that an unstoppable force like massive AI spending is about to meet the immovable object that is Fed interest rate hikes. While a robust earnings season has proven that the bull market still has some gas left in the tank, the tech stocks powering the market to new highs are looking increasingly overvalued.

The data backs up the poll’s results: This week, traders pulled money out of the market for the first time in three months, according to Bank of America. Investor outflows topped $8.5 billion, a stark turnaround from last week’s $119 billion in inflows that underscores just how suddenly the winds have shifted.—MR

We all knew the world’s biggest prediction market must be making some serious money, but we didn’t know the full extent of its cash haul—until now.

Today, CNBC reported that Polymarket’s annualized revenue has surpassed $1 billion just weeks after the company opened up the waitlist for its US exchange. Previously, Polymarket barred US users after settling with regulators in 2022 (although many Americans continued to trade through loopholes.)

Betting it all this summer

Polymarket’s user base has exploded this summer, partially due to betting on the World Cup. Volume has gone from roughly $50 million per day to more than $200 million per day between mid-May and June 20, according to CNBC.

But Kalshi, its biggest competitor, is still the predominant betting site in the US, controlling over 90% of the US prediction market with an annualized revenue topping $1.5 billion. Then again, there’s room for everyone: Combined global trading volume, including Polymarket and Kalshi, has surged from about $4.5 billion in September 2025 to $24 billion in April 2026.

Big bets, bigger losses

Once considered fringe (and illegal) in the US, prediction markets are now being embraced by Wall Street, Silicon Valley, the media, and millions of users across the world.

But while these companies are raking it in, everyday users are often left holding the bag: According to the Wall Street Journal, 67% of Polymarket’s profits go to just the top 0.1% of accounts, and for every person on Kalshi who makes money, there are roughly 2.9 who lose.

Then there’s the slew of insider trading scandals undermining users’ faith in these sites. Oh, and all those winners on social media claiming to be flush with cash? Many are faking it, and being paid by Polymarket to do so. It’s no wonder why lawmakers are looking to open a probe into Polymarket’s deceptive advertising.

Now that these sites are financial institutions in and of themselves, people are beginning to question what they really are. Are prediction markets investing, forecasting, or just straight-up gambling?

By the time lawmakers, regulators, and society at large decide, the genie may be out of the bottle for good.—LB

• Today’s one of the wildest days of trading this year. Here’s everything you should know about the infamous FTSE Rusell semi-annual rebalancing.
• The good news? Consumer sentiment rose. The bad news? It’s still flirting with a record low.
• The US merchandise trade deficit just widened in May to its biggest in over a year.
• President Trump has threatened to slap 100% tariffs on European countries that institute a digital services tax.
• OpenAI is rolling out three new models, but has agreed to the US government’s request to only offer them to “trusted partners” at first.
• Just as we thought the energy crisis was over, El Niño could trigger a fresh oil shock.
• In 2019, two women were competing to succeed JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon. A lot has changed in corporate succession planning since then.

What’s coming next week

Monday: Earnings from Aerovironment kick off a slow week of quarterly reports.

Tuesday: Nike and Constellation Brands are the highlights of a stark earnings slate. The US June Conference Board consumer confidence index should make for some fun reading, but the May JOLTS report will likely steal the spotlight as a week of labor market data truly begins.

Wednesday: General Mills is the only name worth mentioning that’s announcing earnings today, while the labor market continues to deliver with the monthly ADP report.

Thursday: No earnings of note. In fact, there’s really no earnings reports at all. But we get a double whammy of labor market news with the weekly initial jobless claims and the US June jobs report.

Friday: The stock market is closed in observance of the Fourth of July, so take the day off and enjoy some fireworks.