• Commodities: Crude prices popped after President Trump threatened to unleash “economic D-Day” on Iran and any country that supports it. Gold keeps climbing as the Treasury Department’s intervention yesterday has prompted a chorus of Wall Street analysts to declare it’s time to buy.
• Bonds: Speaking of which, Treasury yields rebounded today and nearly erased yesterday’s relief rally. But Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he’s ready to boost bond buybacks even further if it means keeping yields in check.
• Stocks: Rising crude prices and higher bond yields provided a double whammy that sent indexes tumbling lower.

Earnings

Morning Brew Inc.

This bellwether is ringing alarm bells.

Walmart reported Q2 earnings this morning—and let’s just say that the results did not make investors feel like they were saving money or living well. While the company beat Wall Street estimates on revenue and earnings, same-store sales rose just 2.6%—lower than analyst expectations of 3.8%, and the smallest quarterly increase since 2020. According to executives, the culprit was new pharmacy-pricing regulations—without those, sales would have gotten a 3.4% boost.

Shares sank 9.16% this afternoon, making today Walmart’s worst day of trading in four years.

But despite the share meltdown, it wasn’t all bad news:

• The company received $2.9 billion in tariff refunds last quarter, and is waiting to receive another $100 million. CFO John Rainey said Walmart will use those funds to lower prices for consumers next quarter.
• Looking ahead, Walmart expects net sales to jump between 4% and 5% for the fiscal year, slightly higher than the 3.5% to 4.5% it previously projected.

Consumers are cash-strapped

The rough quarter for Walmart speaks to a larger trend that analysts are observing—and one we’re all living. Amid persistent inflation and a weakening labor market, many consumers are feeling strapped for cash, and aren’t exactly eager to shell out for things like a silicon bacon cooker or pickle ice pops.

Rainey acknowledged on CNBC that consumers were feeling economic pain, which weighed on the company’s quarter. But, he added, “Consumers are still spending, and real wage growth is keeping pace, and so they’ve been very resilient in this environment.”

Despite today’s mixed news, analysts are still bullish on the company in the long term. In a note last week ahead of the earnings call, Bank of America analyst Christopher Nardone praised fast-growing segments of Walmart’s business, including e-commerce and global advertising.

His predictions seemed spot on: Walmart’s global e-commerce revenue surged 23% last quarter, while its advertising revenue popped 38%.

After dealing with worrying macro data for so long, maybe investors are unfairly taking out their anxiety on Walmart.—LB

      

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Stocks

🟢 What’s up

• Deere & Co. gained 6.93% on a fiscal third-quarter earnings beat.
• Webull jumped 2.43% after second-quarter revenue and adjusted operating income both topped expectations.
• Adhesive manufacturing company Nordson climbed 8% following a higher full-year earnings outlook that came in above Wall Street estimates.
• MARA Holdings rose 15.54% alongside a broader rally in crypto-linked stocks as bitcoin moved higher (more on that later).
• Aurinia Pharmaceuticals advanced 6.8% after settling a patent dispute with Teva over a generic version of its Lupkynis drug.

🔴 What’s down

• Moderna fell 23.55% as investors took profits following yesterday’s massive rally.
• Advance Auto Parts declined 24.6% on weaker same-store sales and softer consumer spending.
• French beauty company Coty tumbled 9.84% after posting a wider-than-expected loss and forecasting lower revenue and gross margins for the current quarter.
• CrowdStrike slipped 5.6% following news that CTO Elia Zaitsev is leaving to launch an AI-focused cybersecurity venture fund.
• SpaceX fell 4.05% as lockup restrictions lifted on another 319 million shares held by early employees and investors.

Stat of the day

40 trillion reasons to be worried

Illustration: Morning Brew Inc., Photos: Adobe Stock

On Wednesday afternoon, the US achieved a remarkable feat—and no, we’re not talking about finally getting rid of Harry and Meghan.

US national debt topped $40 trillion yesterday, a grim milestone that caps off a staggering increase in the country’s IOUs, which have doubled in just 10 years. The number is so big that it’s difficult to wrap our minds around how it will affect regular Americans, but the nation’s debt burden is already beginning to weigh on investors.

The higher the debt rises, the less confident investors become that the US will pay back what it owes. As they grow more wary of the country’s financial situation, investors demand a bigger payout (higher yields) in exchange for buying US debt (Treasury bills). Throw in fears of rising inflation that could force the Fed to raise interest rates, and you get a run on the Treasury market that spiked yields and pushed Scott Bessent to intervene.

Turns out, that intervention was pointless—not just because bond yields rose once again today, but also because it doesn’t address the root cause of the recent spike in yields: the national debt. And nobody’s addressing that: The US is running an annual deficit of between 6% and 7% of GDP, with no plans to cut back anytime soon.

The Treasury Department can flood the market with money all it wants—but without reducing the country’s debt, all it’s really doing is eroding investors’ trust that US Treasurys are a safe investment.—MR

Crypto

Illustration: Morning Brew Inc., Photo: Adobe Stock

Remember bitcoin? After hitting an all-time high near $126,000 in October, it has spent months in a slump as macroeconomic pressure, a rotation into AI stocks, and fading speculative enthusiasm took some air out of the crypto bubble. Bitcoin’s still down 16.91% this year.

But the king of crypto came roaring back today, jumping 5.32% and topping $70,000 for the first time in months. Ethereum, Solana, and XRP rallied alongside it.

A perfect crypto storm

As you read above, the national debt has now topped $40 trillion, fueling concerns that heavy government borrowing could weaken the dollar. That’s making scarce assets like bitcoin more attractive—and the Treasury’s decision to “at least double” planned buybacks of long-dated government debt added a more immediate boost by pushing yields and the dollar lower in the short term.

Then came the short squeeze. CoinGlass estimates that $3.1 billion worth of short crypto positions were liquidated in 24 hours, including about $1.8 billion tied to bitcoin, while long liquidations totaled just $277 million.

Bitcoin also got a boost from President Trump, who urged Congress to fast-track the CLARITY Act—legislation that would establish a clearer regulatory framework for the crypto industry. “It’s a very, very powerful structured legislation which will keep us ahead of China, keep us ahead of everyone else, will open the door to the next wave of innovations and innovators,” Trump said at a White House meeting with crypto executives.

Don’t call it a comeback

The rally was welcome news for crypto-linked stocks today: Strategy jumped 7.73%, Coinbase rose 7.58%, and Circle gained 6.42%. If bitcoin can hold on to the momentum, those companies could continue climbing.

But it’s hard to know how long the rally will last, especially with crypto’s notoriously volatile track record. Deribit data shows roughly $1.5 billion tied to calls at $70,000 and $1.4 billion tied to puts at $60,000, suggesting traders are bracing for a big move in either direction.

The Senate’s first procedural vote on Sept. 15 could make or break the CLARITY Act’s chances this year—and help determine the fate of the battered crypto market once and for all.—SY

      

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News

• President Trump wants to cut the capital gains tax. Here’s how much money that would save you.
• JPMorgan Chase said the Treasury Department’s intervention was a band-aid, not a cure, and could actually kick off bigger problems in the bond market.
• Here’s a cheap way to protect your portfolio from a market selloff.
• US workers will spend an average $5,297 on healthcare this year, $388 more than in 2025. And it’s only going to get worse next year.
• Enjoy the true story of how Apple owes its success to the CIA.
• Formula One racing is becoming increasingly popular here in the US. But is the stock a buy?
• China finally found a scapegoat for its massive real estate bust, sentencing Evergrande founder Hui Ka Yan to life in prison.

Calendar

There are no major economic announcements tomorrow, and BJ’s Wholesale Club is the only earnings report worth noting in what should be a quiet end to the week.

recs

🧠 Our most-clicked story this time last week was all about how Bill Ackman bailed on Netflix—and then invested in it once again. Here are the five other stocks he’s bought this year.

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