After 14 years, Apple finally took a byte out of Samsung’s lead.

Apple is expected to ship 243 million iPhones this year, ahead of Samsung’s 235 million, according to Counterpoint Research. Shipments reflect units sent to retailers, not actual sales, but the milestone still gives Apple an estimated 19.4% global market share, topping Samsung’s 18.7%.

A big part of that momentum comes from the iPhone 17 launch. In the US, sales during the first four weeks after it hit store shelves were 12% higher than sales of the iPhone 16 series (excluding the 16e). In China, the jump was 18% higher.

Consumers are also hitting an upgrade inflection point. Millions who bought phones during the Covid boom are now ready to refresh—and with 358 million second-hand iPhones sold between 2023 and mid-2025, a massive base is gearing up for a replacement cycle.

The Mag 7 introvert

In a world where every headline is “AI this, Nvidia that,” Apple shares have quietly risen more than 36% since early summer even though it hasn’t spent billions trying to win the AI arms race.

Apple’s low-drama approach hasn’t stopped it from creeping toward the top of the Big Tech leaderboard. Its $4.11 trillion market cap is inching closer to Kingvidia’s $4.53 trillion, helped in part by rising pressure on Nvidia from Google. Last week, Google rolled out Gemini 3, and just yesterday, reports surfaced that Meta Platforms is in talks to use Google’s chips instead of Nvidia’s.

Meanwhile, Apple is staying in its own lane and doubling down on what it already dominates: consumer-facing tech. So far, the strategy seems to be working.

What’s next for Apple?

Counterpoint expects Apple to hold the No. 1 spot in global smartphone shipments through 2029, helped by a broad replacement cycle, weaker-than-expected tariff effects, a depreciating dollar, and continued expansion across its product ecosystem. The firm also cites a “resilient economic outlook” as a boost to consumer demand.

But recent data tells a different story. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index dropped to the lowest since April in November amid concerns about jobs and economic stability.

Even so, tech demand may be an exception. Best Buy noted that consumers remain willing to spend on meaningful tech upgrades when they are necessary or when there is technological innovation.

The bigger question is whether Apple’s “non-AI” approach continues to work. For now, AI leaders and AI stragglers are running at roughly the same pace, but that won’t hold forever. If Apple doesn’t articulate its AI strategy soon, its quiet climb could eventually turn into a ceiling—the kind even a new iPhone can’t get around.—SY

🟢 What’s up

• Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals jumped 23.34% as fiscal-year revenue beat expectations, helped by momentum from its treatment for familial chylomicronemia syndrome, the first and only treatment on the market.
• Dell Technologies gained 5.83% as investors looked past a revenue miss and focused on the company’s stronger fourth-quarter outlook tied to AI demand.
• Autodesk rose 2.36% on better-than-expected third-quarter results and an upward revision to its full-year guidance.
• Petco Health & Wellness soared 14.48% after reporting its second straight quarterly profit and raising its profit outlook for the year.
• CleanSpark advanced 13.79% as the bitcoin miner doubled its 2025 revenue and outlined plans to position its power portfolio for AI-driven data-center growth.
• Robinhood Markets surged 10.93% after revealing it will launch a futures and derivatives exchange alongside Susquehanna International Group as it expands its footprint in prediction markets.

What’s down

• Cloud security company Zscaler fell 13.03% as a miss on billings outweighed a top and bottom line beat.
• Nutanix slipped 17.75% after the cloud software company missed both its first-quarter revenue and second-quarter outlook.
• It was a rough day for cloud companies: PagerDuty dropped 23.32% as stronger earnings couldn’t offset a sales miss.
• Workday declined 7.85% following disappointing third-quarter results and analyst price-target cuts tied to weaker subscription revenue guidance.
• Semiconductor design company Ambarella sank 18.78% despite beating on earnings, with investors reacting to a decline in gross revenue and a GAAP loss for the quarter.

Your waistline might not be the only thing expanding this week—the stock market also tends to put on some pounds.

Since 1928, the S&P 500 index has wrapped the Tuesday-through-Friday stretch of Thanksgiving week in positive territory 60% of the time. Although trading is light, Wednesday and Friday (when the stock market closes early at 1 pm) see positive returns 70% of the time.

Cyber Monday, on the other hand, has been brutal for the SPX: only 40% of days ended in the green. But if you can wait to buy, you might be able to take advantage of a nice sale: Stocks ended the week after Black Friday in positive territory 69% of the time.

The latest data around this Thanksgiving bodes well: This week has shaped up to be the best Thanksgiving week for markets since 2012, according to Carson Group Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick.

The future looks bright, too: Although retail sales slumped in September, the National Retail Federation (NRF) expects a record-breaking $1 trillion in sales this holiday season, which could give consumer-facing stocks a boost. And according to Jeff Hirsch of The Almanac Trader, when the S&P 500 is up YTD before Thanksgiving (as it is now), that gravy train continues through year’s end with an average gain of 2.2%.

In other words, this Thanksgiving brings heaping portions for investors to be thankful for.—JD

Here’s one thing Urban Outfitters investors are thankful for: today was the stock’s best day since May.

Shares climbed 13.54% after the retailer every 17 year-old you know is obsessed with posted great Q3 numbers: EPS crushed expectations, revenue jumped 12%, and retail same-store sales increased by 8%, above forecasts of 5.2%. In fact, every single one of Urban Outfitters’ brands (its namesake, as well as Anthropologie and Free People) enjoyed strong same-store sales growth.

Executives said that, despite the shaky macroeconomic environment, Urban Outfitters shoppers were still willing to pay full price for items, even while they waited for holiday sales. CEO Richard Hayne noted on the firm’s earnings call that, "customer engagement was lively.”

The retail Super Bowl

Urban Outfitters isn’t the only retailer that’s had a major rally thanks to a surprisingly strong surge in demand.

Meme stock Kohl’s jumped 42% on Tuesday after its own earnings report, thanks to a short squeeze, and it climbed another 7.49% today. As we discussed yesterday, Abercrombie & Fitch also pulled off a major comeback, jumping over 37% after its earnings on Tuesday. It rose 5.38% this afternoon. And Best Buy gained over 5% after it reported strong demand for tech upgrades. The stock rallied another 1.67% today.

The bottom line: Despite headwinds like tariffs and a faltering labor market, consumers appear to be headed into the all-important holiday shopping season strong.

But wait—didn’t consumer confidence fall to its lowest level since April just yesterday? While that’s true, the numbers were likely distorted by the government shutdown, according to Chief Economist for LPL Financial Jeffrey Roach, who wrote that he expects a “rebound” next month.

After all, the holidays are traditionally all about spending time with loved ones, reflecting on the year, and of course, shopping.—LB

Urban Outfitters benefitted from total strength across its portfolio, including its hidden jewel: clothing rental service Nuuly.

Nuuly boosted Urban Outfitter’s revenue this quarter with the sort of sales the market loves: subscription. Its $98 per month fee means predictable, recurring revenue. And it’s helped by the fact that part of its inventory conveniently sits inside the stores of Urban Outfitters’ brands already, boosting margins. That store footprint also allows Nuuly to double down on convenience, recently letting customers return their monthly rental totes directly to Urban Outfitters stores.

Listen to today’s episode of Brew Markets Daily to learn why I think Nuuly will continue to eat Rent the Runway’s lunch and gain market share.—AB

• The market is pricing in about an 83% chance of a rate cut in December, up from around 50% just a week ago.
• An MIT study found that AI could already replace over 11% of the US workforce.
• Even thrift stores are holding Black Friday sales these days.
• Uh oh: OpenAI won’t make money by 2030.
• AI slop isn’t just taking over the internet, it’s taking over the Thanksgiving menu, too.
• SPAC’s are turning into a risky financial Turducken.

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Tomorrow is Thanksgiving here in the US, so pass the gravy, try to avoid Aunt Gertrude’s famous fruit cake, and get ready to explain to grandma why she probably shouldn’t put her retirement savings into bitcoin just yet.

We’ve got Thanksgiving off, and while the market is open for a half day on Friday, we’re taking that day off too in order to get a head start on our holiday shopping.

We hope you all have a happy holiday, and we’ll see you back here on Monday!