After espousing a series of threats so frightening they alarmed even the Easter bunny, President Trump agreed to a two week ceasefire with Iran in exchange for the Strait of Hormuz opening immediately.

A threat to upend modern geopolitics followed by a complete reversal? You know what that means: The TACO trade is so back, and the market spent the day in chaos.

• Crude prices fell nearly 15% to below $97 per barrel, the biggest single-day drop since 2020. That dragged down oil stocks like Exxon Mobil and Chevron, but travel stocks got a big boost.
• Government bond yields sank, while the dollar fell as the safe haven trade unwound.
• Bitcoin rallied to a three-week high on reports that Iran will charge tolls in cryptocurrencies for any ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Traders began pricing in a rate cut instead of a rate hike, a reversal of…the recent reversal.

Should you take a bite of the TACO?

As is usually the case when the TACO trade is in full swing, investors are left with more questions than answers. But that hasn’t stopped analysts from trying to predict the future.

Fundstrat strategist Tom Lee, for example, argued that the ceasefire means the market is at bottom, and will likely only go up from here. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs senior trader Rich Privorotsky cautioned investors from getting too jubilant about the news, arguing that this ceasefire is fragile and may not hold, sending markets tumbling back into uncertainty once again. And some investors are already looking past the war, according to a note from JPMorgan, perhaps rushing over key questions too quickly.

What now?

Zooming out, it’s clear that the truce between Iran and the US is by no means the end of geopolitical chaos.

Since the ceasefire, Trump has already threatened 50% tariffs on countries “supplying military weapons to Iran.” Meanwhile, oil tankers going through the Strait of Hormuz were stopped today after Israeli attacks in Lebanon, according to Iran. On top of that, a Saudi Arabian pipeline was reportedly attacked this morning.

Even if Trump is chickening out, that doesn’t mean everyone else is.—LB

• Meta Platforms advanced 6.5% following the debut of its new AI model Muse Spark.
• Levi Strauss climbed 10.65% after raising full-year guidance on the back of 14% revenue growth, driven by its turnaround plan.
• Delta Air Lines rose 3.78% after reporting better-than-expected first-quarter results.
• Super Micro Computer ticked up 3.09% as its board launched an internal investigation into alleged chip smuggling.
• Semiconductor company Aehr Test Systems surged 25.69% after a wave of analyst upgrades highlighted strong bookings despite weak quarterly results.
• Memory and storage names soared on market momentum: Sandisk rose 11.42%, Western Digital gained 8.6%, and Intel kept its recent rally going, climbing 11.42%.
• Carnival gained 11.23%, Norwegian Cruise Line jumped 7.66%, and Royal Caribbean rallied 4.31% as falling oil prices boosted sentiment across cruise operators.

What’s down

• Chemical companies LyondellBasell fell 7.51%, Dow dropped 5.14%, and CF Industries slid 5.7%, while energy companies Exxon Mobil declined 4.69%, Chevron dipped 4.29%, and Venture Global retreated 9.69% on ceasefire news.
• Blue Owl Capital sank 1.77% after Moody’s cut its outlook on a flagship fund to negative, citing rising stress in private credit markets.

Like finding Bigfoot, every few years an intrepid reporter comes along and tries to reveal the true identity of bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto. And like any claims of discovering Bigfoot, it usually turns out to be a hoax.

This morning, the New York Times reported that the legendary crypto creator is none other than Adam Back, a British bitcoin developer. Reporters drew their conclusion based on the use of British idioms in emails penned by Satoshi, Back’s participation in an online group dedicated to creating digital cash that could elude government oversight, and Satoshi’s use of Back’s puzzle-solving algorithm to create the bitcoin mining system.

Back denied the allegations—which is exactly what the real Satoshi would do—citing emails he exchanged with Satoshi and decrying many of the connections the NYT made as mere coincidence. In his defense, Back is far from the first person accused of founding bitcoin: Fingers have previously been pointed at Canadian cryptographer Peter Todd, Australian computer scientist Craig Wright, and hundreds of others.

Perhaps we’ll won’t ever know the real identity of Satoshi, the shadowy figure who owns around 5% of the world’s bitcoin, currently valued at approximately $78.9 billion. But maybe, like never capturing Bigfoot on camera, we’re not meant to know the truth.—MR

Anthropic employees might have a future in poetry: The company’s new initiative, dubbed Project Glasswing, is named after a nearly invisible butterfly, and is all about catching the “bugs” you don’t see coming.

Launched yesterday, the program brings together a select group of companies to test Claude’s new Mythos model, a cybersecurity-focused system designed to hunt down hidden vulnerabilities in critical software. Mythos Preview has already uncovered thousands of high-severity issues, spanning every major operating system and web browser—and raising some eyebrows in the security community.

The AI cyber-alliance

At first glance, that kind of competition sounds like bad news for cybersecurity firms, which have already been under pressure from AI disruption fears—first sparked when Anthropic rolled out a code-scanning tool in February. The Global X Cybersecurity ETF is down 15.54% in 2026, compared to just a 0.92% decline for the S&P 500 Index.

But instead of replacing them, AI firms are teaming up with cybersecurity OGs: In addition to companies like Amazon, Google, Apple, and Nvidia, Anthropic is partnering with CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks as part of the Glasswing initiative. Shares of both are up 9.25% and 8.4%, respectively, over the last five days.

AI goes from a threat to tailwind

Analysts seem to be supporting the bull case as they upgrade cybersecurity stocks: Arete Research upgraded Palo Alto Networks to Buy from Sell last month, while CrowdStrike has picked up multiple upgrades from firms like Piper Sandler and Wolfe Research.

The reason is that as AI models get more powerful, they’re also making attacks more sophisticated and expanding the number of potential vulnerabilities. Hackers have already used AI tools to breach hundreds of firewalls globally, including government systems—highlighting how the same technology driving disruption is also increasing demand for protection.

The downside is that cybersecurity stocks are not cheap: CrowdStrike trades at more than 78x forward earnings—the ninth most expensive name in the S&P 500—while Palo Alto Networks sits around 42x.

But if Anthropic’s move signals anything, it’s that AI companies are leaning toward partnership, not disruption—giving investors a reason to believe the growth story may still justify the price.—SY

• Over $170 million has been bet on a ceasefire with Iran via Polymarket, raising suspicion once again about insider trading on the platform.
• The US Navy’s retail store business is trying to win back customers from Walmart and Amazon.
• The Federal Reserve still projects a rate cut this year despite the war, according to the recent FOMC minutes.
• Economists’ predictions are seriously flopping this year.
• Oil executives sold about $1.4 billion worth of stock in the first quarter as the Iran war exploded.
• Will SpaceX be the next meme stock?

Economic reports: The first of our dueling inflation reports arrives tomorrow in the form of the February PCE reading. Economists expect core PCE to rise 0.4% month over month, and 3% year over year—though the data will be a bit dated, considering it’s from before the war with Iran and the subsequent oil shock. We’ll also get the usual weekly initial unemployment report, as well as the third and final estimate of Q4 GDP.

Earnings announcements: BlackBerry and the WD-40 Company

Everything else: The Masters tees off in Augusta, Georgia.