You’re never going to believe it, but gold, silver, and copper just hit new all-time highs. Again.

Commodities are usually the forgotten pieces of the portfolio puzzle, lurking behind stocks and bonds, just there to provide some stability without much fanfare. But 2025 has been the year of commodities, and it’s worth taking a look at what drove record runs for gold, silver, and copper—and if their hot streak can continue next year.

Gold

Gold had a blockbuster 2025, rising about 73% YTD on the back of relentless safe-haven demand.

The metal benefited from persistent geopolitical uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s second term, repeated shifts in tariff policy, and rising global tensions, all of which sent investors scurrying for portfolio protection. Strong ETF inflows, heavy buying from central banks, falling yields, and a weakening dollar added further support. Even brief pullbacks after strong US jobs data couldn’t derail the rally.

Analysts expect gold’s impressive run to continue over the next two years, with JPMorgan forecasting an average price of $4,753 in 2026 and a surge to $5,400 by late 2027. Goldman Sachs similarly projects gold rising about 14% to $4,900 by December 2026, citing sustained central-bank buying, Fed rate-cut support, and growing diversification by private investors.

Silver

Silver was 2025’s standout performer, far outpacing gold with a roughly 145% YTD surge and hitting multiple record highs along the way. The rally reflected both tightening supply and powerful waves of demand from consumers and industry alike.

A large chunk of that demand came from India, the world’s largest silver consumer. India uses around 4,000 metric tons annually for jewelry, utensils, and ornaments—and seasonal buying ahead of Diwali, the country’s biggest holiday, helped spur on a historic squeeze in silver inventories earlier this year. That shot prices into the stratosphere, and while the pop was short-lived, analysts expect silver to continue seeing powerful growth from renewable and high-tech applications, especially for solar power.

Peter Krauth of Silver Stock Investor and Silver Advisor sees $50 as a new floor for the metal, and offers a “conservative” forecast of silver reaching the $70 range in 2026. More aggressive projections call for silver to climb as high as $97.85 by late 2026.

Copper

Copper also notched plenty of record highs in 2025, rising nearly 38% this year and climbing above $12,000 per ton for the first time ever today.

Traders have been accelerating purchases on concerns that Washington may impose duties on refined copper imports starting in 2027, prompting a wave of front-loaded buying. As a result, refined copper inflows into the US have surged by roughly 650,000 tons this year, swelling domestic inventories to around 750,000 tons.

Analysts see even more upside ahead. Citi forecasts copper prices could soar to $13,000 per ton in early 2026 and up to $15,000 by Q2, driven by surging demand from electrification, grid upgrades, data-center expansion, and tightening supply.—SY

🟢 What’s up

• Don’t call it a comeback: Novo Nordisk surged 7.3% after the FDA approved the first GLP-1 weight-loss pill.
• That news boosted Viking Therapeutics 2.85% and Structure Therapeutics 12.71%—both are working on their own weight-loss pills.
• ZIM Integrated Shipping Services rose 5.78% thanks to comments from the shipping service’s board of directors that it’s fielding multiple acquisition offers.
• Hycroft Mining climbed another 10.69% a day after its announcement that its mine in Nevada is yielding better results than anticipated.
• The FCC banned drones and components from several Chinese manufacturers, citing risks to national security. That boosted domestic drone makers like Unusual Machines (up 9.24%) and AeroVironment (up 2.26%).

What’s down

• ServiceNow dropped 1.48% on the news that it will acquire cybersecurity startup Armis for $7.75 billion, its latest tie-up in a spate of deals.
• Crypto stocks crumbled after bitcoin dropped sharply overnight: Coinbase fell 2.26%, Strategy lost 3.88%, and Robinhood Markets sank 1.74%.
• The Metals Company (TMC) dropped 5.19% on the news that regulators have opened the public comment period for the company’s deep seabed mining exploration license applications.
• Software company Asana plunged 6.05% after COO Anne Raimondi revealed she’s sold over 160,000 shares in the last few days.

Today’s third quarter GDP report was better late than never—and better than expected, too.

The US economy grew 4.3% annually between July and September, outpacing forecasts of 3.2% and well above the second quarter’s 3.8% expansion. In fact, it marked the highest economic growth in two years.

The strong reading was thanks to solid consumer spending, which rose 3.5% last quarter, up from 2.5% in the second quarter. While that sounds great on paper, in practice, a large chunk of that spending spree was due to Americans rushing to buy electric vehicles before EV tax credits expired on September 30.

Don’t forget that the report was delayed from October thanks to the government shutdown, so not only was nobody collecting data while Congress was closed for business, but there’s a chance that consumer spending has sagged since then. New data today from the Conference Board showed that consumer confidence sank 3.8 points to 89.1 in December from November’s reading of 92.9—its lowest point since April, when tariffs first hit.

Look, we don’t want to play Scrooge and dismiss today’s GDP reading with a “Bah, humbug.” But investors should probably wait until the next, non-delayed report before they start believing that the economy just delivered a Christmas miracle.—MR

As if the Fed didn’t have enough on its plate already with a slowing labor market, attacks from the White House, and mixed signals on inflation, AI spending has become the newest thorn in its side.

Fed governor Christopher Waller, one of President Trump’s top picks to replace Fed chair Jerome Powell, said at the Yale CEO Summit last week that there’s so much capital being spent on AI that it could be skewing the Fed’s view of how the economy is holding up.

Thank goodness for AI

Waller’s core concern is that all the AI spending could be masking a spending slowdown elsewhere.

Tech titans have poured approximately $500 billion into building data centers and fine-tuning AI chatbots this year, according to Goldman Sachs, helping prop up the economy and the stock market alike. But take away all that spending, and you’re left with a much different picture.

He might be on to something. Barron’s noted that spending on AI categories—software, data centers, R&D, etc—accounted for 14% of Q3 GDP, and 37% of real GDP growth through the first nine months of 2025. GDP has climbed 2.1% through the first three quarters of the year, but without all that AI spending, it would have only risen 1.5%.

Wall Street’s waking up to the problem as well. In a note published this morning, Pantheon Macroeconomics analyst Oliver Allen pointed to the GDP reading and highlighted how real private fixed investments—spending by businesses, nonprofits, and households on fixed assets—would have been negative if not for all the AI-related spending.

Deutsche Bank analysts Adrian Cox and Stefan Abrudan said much the same thing earlier this month: “[The] US would be close to recession this year if it weren’t for tech-related spending, as other spending has flatlined post-Covid.”

To bubble or not to bubble

Waller’s not worried about a bubble just yet. What he’s focused on is how banks are getting more deeply involved in financing the massive AI buildout, and have taken to making riskier loans in order to catch the wave.

Waller estimated that roughly half of AI deals being done these days are being financed by equity from investors, and the other half is being paid for by complex layers of leveraged debt. That’s all well and good for the bottom line, but if those AI projects fail and hurt the banking system, it affects the entire economy, including average Americans.

For now, the economy is looking solid while AI spending continues to climb. But if the AI boom goes bust, everyone is going to feel the pain.—LB

• Take a peek into an average day in the life of Shark Tank’s Kevin O’Leary, including 5 am wakeups and avoiding emails.
• The US government announced new tariffs on Chinese semiconductor imports, ‌but won’t put them into effect until June 2027.
• Airfare may be sky-high, but so is passenger count: Airlines expect this holiday travel season to be the biggest yet.
• Beginning on January 7, the US government will begin garnishing wages of student loan borrowers to force them to pay back what they owe.
• Forget the S&P 500: The UK’s FTSE crushed its American counterpart this year, notching its best year since 2009. Here’s why it could repeat its success next year.

Santa is coming tomorrow, and all the good little investors will be in bed with visions of massive portfolio gains dancing in their heads. But before they leave milk and cookies out for the big guy, investors should keep an eye out for the weekly initial jobless claims report.

Also, don’t forget that tomorrow’s a half day for the stock market, with everything shutting down at 1pm ET. We’re taking a half day too, so expect to see us in your inboxes earlier than usual tomorrow afternoon.