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Buffett goes out with a bang
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Plus, Americans can't decide how they feel.

Good afternoon. In our ongoing quest to find absurd economic indicators, it turns out that economists themselves may be the best indicator of all.

Economists were once hot commodities, commanding impressive salaries at universities, government agencies, or Wall Street firms. But the New York Times reports a slowdown in hiring across the board as school funding comes under fire, government layoffs rise, and Wall Street braces for uncertainty.

With demand for highly trained economists waning, it’s no wonder that hiring has dried up for a number of other groups, particularly recent college grads. It’s a sign of the times that the very people reporting on the state of the economy may serve as a warning that the economy isn’t as healthy as it seems.

—Mark Reeth, Judy Dutton & Lucy Brewster

MARKETS

Nasdaq

21,622.98

S&P

6,449.79

Dow

44,946.12

10-Year

4.328%

Bitcoin

$117,005.49

Oil

$63.12

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*Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 4:00pm ET. Here's what these numbers mean.

  • Stocks: The Dow climbed thanks to UnitedHealth and our old pal Warren Buffett (more on that later), while the rest of the market sank as the rally took a breather. Despite today’s decline, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq wrapped up winning weeks.
  • Bonds: Both 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields continued to climb after Thursday’s PPI reading and today’s consumer confidence and retail sales data (more on that even later).
  • Commodities: All eyes are on Anchorage, Alaska as President Trump arrives for talks with President Putin—discussions that will be crucial for crude’s future.
 

INVESTING

Warren Buffett

Daniel Zuchnik/Getty Images

The Oracle of Omaha couldn’t depart for retirement without dropping one last piece of game-changing investment news: At the end of June, Berkshire Hathaway purchased 5 million shares of the beleaguered health insurance giant UnitedHealth for $1.6 billion.

To say UnitedHealth has had a rough year would be an understatement. The firm has become synonymous with the failings of the American healthcare system after UnitedHealthCare CEO Brian Thompson was killed in December, sparking a widespread backlash against its insurance practices. In May, CEO Andrew Witty resigned suddenly as the company pulled its 2025 outlook.

On top of all that, the company is being investigated by the Department of Justice over billing practices. Overall, shares were down roughly 50% this year before today’s news.

But the announcement that Warren Buffett saw promise in the company sent shares 11.84% higher this afternoon—making it the stock’s best day since 2008.

Buffett, whose legacy is cemented as a classic value investor, is looking at that 50% decline as a huge markdown on a company that’s fundamentally financially sound, despite the chaos of the past year. UnitedHealth shares are trading at a P/E ratio of just under 12, its lowest in more than a decade.

Buffett’s wishlist: Berkshire also disclosed a stake in steel company Nucor, ad firm Lamar Advertising, security company Allegion, and home builders Lennar and DR Horton. And just so we’re clear, Buffett’s number twos, Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, likely also made these investment decisions, given they also have influence over Berkshire’s portfolio.

The end of an era

Today’s news wasn’t just momentous because of the positions Berkshire Hathaway disclosed, but also because Buffett is stepping down at the end of this year.

Buffett has had a legendary run at Berkshire Hathaway by taking a long-term investment approach, focusing on quality businesses with good fundamentals at reasonable prices. He also garnered a reputation as committed to aboveboard, ethical business practices. Some of his most lucrative picks have been Apple, American Express, Coca-Cola, and Bank of America.

But Berkshire Hathaway’s success rate isn’t 100%. For example, the company sold out of its positions in Wells Fargo and JP Morgan between 2019 and 2022—and since then, shares of the two companies have doubled. More recently, Berkshire purchased a $266 million stake in Ulta Beauty in Q2, before selling off the vast majority of it the very next quarter. This year, Ulta has soared 19.79%.

Shares of Berkshire Hathaway have declined roughly 7% since Buffett announced his retirement in May.

The bottom line: If you’re Greg Abel, you’ve still got a tough act to follow.—LB

Presented by Public.com

STOCKS

The biggest winners and losers on the stock market today

🟢 What’s up

  • Intel climbed another 2.93% a day after reports broke that the Trump administration may take a stake in the chipmaker.
  • Salesforce jumped 3.89% on the news that activist investor Starboard Value has increased its stake in the software company by almost 50%.
  • Homebuilders enjoyed a bit of a Buffett Bump after the Oracle of Omaha revealed he bought shares of DR Horton (up 1.06%) and Lennar (up 1.17%).
  • Twilio jumped 4.79% on the news that the cloud software developer will be added to the S&P MidCap 400.
  • Evolv Technologies popped 5.16% after the AI security company reported strong earnings and that the Justice Department has ended its investigation.
  • Solar stocks surged thanks to strong earnings from SunRun combined with new tax credit guidance from the government. SunRun soared 32.82%, First Solar rose 11.05%, and Enphase Energy gained 8.13%.

What’s down

  • Target lost 1.18% after Bank of America analysts downgraded the retailer and cut their price target, citing a weaker long-term outlook.
  • Roblox dropped 6.31% on the news that Louisiana's attorney general is suing the video game company for allegedly being “the perfect place for pedophiles.”
  • Applied Materials may have beaten Wall Street’s estimates last quarter, but the semiconductor equipment maker still fell 14.07% after guidance for the current quarter came in lower than expected.
  • Sandisk tumbled 4.58% after the data storage provider's margins tightened up dramatically last quarter thanks to high costs.
  • Standard Chartered sank 7.21% on the news that a US lawmaker has asked the attorney general to investigate the bank’s practices.

CEO OF THE DAY

A phone with a stock chart

Illustration: Anna Kim, Photos: Adobe Stock

When Carrie Wheeler stepped into the role of CEO at Opendoor in 2022, she probably never thought that meme stock traders would applaud her on her way out. But today’s news that Wheeler has stepped down as chief executive of the real estate company elicited victory laps from retail investors across the internet.

For those living under a rock, Opendoor became the latest meme stock du jour after hedge fund manager Eric Jackson took to X in July to tout the beleaguered company. He thought there was value to be found in the iBuyer, whose business had floundered in the post-pandemic years. The thesis caught fire on r/WallStreetBets, and the rest is history: Shares, which had tumbled from a peak of $39 to a low of $0.50 as of this June, are now up 98.13% in 2025.

“The last weeks of intense outside interest in Opendoor have come at a time when the company needs to stay focused and charging ahead,” Wheeler wrote on LinkedIn. “I believe the best thing I can do for Opendoor now is to accelerate my succession plans that I shared with the Board mid-year and make room for new leadership to take the reins.”

The board is searching for Wheeler’s replacement, while traders pushed shares 4.28% higher today, in yet another victory for the meme stock crowd.—MR

ECONOMY

Shoppers in NYC

Spencer Platt/Getty Images

The old adage “actions speak louder than words” applies to how America’s shopping these days: Consumer data shows that although we feel nervous cracking open our wallets, we’re doing it anyway and wallowing in retail therapy.

Spending at US retailers rose 0.5% in July, according to the Commerce Department, which also revised its June sales number upward to 0.9%. That news comes on the very day that the University of Michigan found consumer sentiment fell 5% from July to August, the first drop in four months, and an unexpected one at that.

These seemingly contradictory findings actually make sense from a human behavior standpoint: Feelings come first, and lead to action later on.

“Sales data captures present realities, and sentiment tends to reflect future intent,” Savage Growth Partners CEO Jensen Savage told Brew Markets. “Big-ticket or event-driven purchases can spike spending even if people feel anxious overall.”

Americans have good reason to feel jittery: The US job market is seriously losing steam as tariffs and inflation loom. UMichigan found that Americans expect prices to rise by 4.9% in the year ahead, up from July’s 4.5%.

“Consumers are anticipating rising costs,” said Savage. “So it would make sense to see consumers front-loading purchases with a ‘buy now before prices increase’ mentality.”

So what are Americans buying, anyway?

Consumer spending surged in nine out of the 13 categories tracked by the Commerce Department, and the biggest winner at the register was the grandest splurge of all: cars. Auto dealers enjoyed a 1.6% boost in sales, while furniture came in a close second at 1.4%. Online sales also got a good 0.8% bump, boosted by mega-sales such as Amazon’s extended Prime Day, Walmart’s “Deals” week, and Target’s back-to-school promos.

The biggest losers? Home improvement posted a 1% loss, followed by electronics (-0.6%) and restaurants and bars (-0.4%). Because let’s face it, when wallets feel slim and moods are grim, no one wants to nab the latest iPhone when the one you have works fine, or blow $20 on bowlslop for lunch, or grab a craft beer when many of your bar buddies are ditching booze anyway.

“Americans are skipping the $17 martini salad and redeploying to big-ticket bargains and online deals,” explained chief investment officer at Running Point Capital Advisors Michael Ashley Schulman, adding that some may have pulled forward car buys ahead of tariff noise and expiring EV credits. “Surveys say ‘I’m worried’; swipes say ‘but that washer’s 20% off.’”—JD

Together With The Guild

NEWS

What's going on in financial markets today

  • How do you rank all 11 candidates to take the reins at the Federal Reserve? By their ability to freak out markets, of course.
  • Selling shares of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could push mortgage rates higher, according to PIMCO.
  • Air Canada has begun canceling flights en masse as a crippling labor lockout looms.
  • The Chinese economy just posted its biggest monthly slowdown of the year, raising fears that the downturn isn’t over yet.
  • 300%: That’s how high semiconductor tariffs could rise, according to President Trump.
  • Rivian Automotive said that new EV policies are keeping the company from collecting about $100 million in revenue.
  • Hims & Hers Health is reportedly being investigated by the FTC for its advertising and cancellation policy.

CALENDAR

What is happening in the world of finance tomorrow

It’s real estate data week, with a boatload of housing market reports hitting the wire. We’ve got the home builder confidence index on Monday, housing starts & building permits on Tuesday, and existing home sales on Thursday.

Also, the Fed will release the FOMC minutes from its July meeting on Wednesday, which should provide some insight into the dissenting governors Bowman and Waller. And don’t forget about the flash services and manufacturing PMI reports on Thursday, which should provide some insight into how the global economy is holding up under new tariffs.

But all eyes will be on the Jackson Hole Symposium next Thursday and Friday. The theme is “Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy," which may not sound all that riveting, sure. But it will still be must-watch television in the hopes that Fed Chair Jerome Powell might break down his plans for the US economy, his vision for rate cuts, and why he always wears a purple tie in his speech on Friday.

Earnings season isn’t over yet, though the pace of announcements is starting to wane. Still, there are a few companies worth keeping an eye on:

Tuesday: Home Depot, Medtronic, Toll Brothers, Xpeng, and La-Z-Boy Inc.

Wednesday: Target, Lowe’s, Baidu, TJX Companies, Estee Lauder, and Analog Devices

Thursday: Walmart, Bilibili, Intuit, Zoom Video Communications, Ross Stores, and Workday

Friday: BJ’s Wholesale Club

RECS

Reading material

American dynamism is at risk—and when economic mobility freezes, it causes serious problems for everyone.

A trader’s guide for the best ways to invest in the Alaska talks between Trump and Putin.

How do you know how much money you’ll need in retirement? Here are 7 steps to estimate cash flow in your golden years.

A dividend turducken is a beautiful thing: Here’s how picking stocks that don’t provide the biggest dividend yield is actually a better investment.

Why haven’t tariffs hit inflation? Turns out, the actual tariff rate may be far below where everyone thinks it is.

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