The Federal Reserve finally has a new chair.

Kevin Warsh took his oath at the White House today, the first time a US president has rolled out the red carpet for this occasion since Alan Greenspan in 1987. This is also President Trump’s first public appearance with Warsh since he nominated him a year earlier. And so far at least, everyone’s playing nice.

“I expect he will go down as one of the truly great chairmen of the Federal Reserve that we’ve ever had,” Trump declared during remarks in the East Room. His advice for Warsh? “Be independent and just do a great job. Don’t look at me, don’t look at anybody, just do your own thing.”

Warsh vowed to live up those lofty expectations, saying, “I will lead a reform-oriented Federal Reserve, learning from past successes and mistakes, both escaping static frameworks and models and upholding clear standards of integrity and performance.”

It was a rare moment filled with warm and fuzzy vibes we should all savor, since things are likely to get a whole lot less civilized from here.

Trump or the economy: Warsh’s tough call

The timing for Warsh to take the reins is rough. Trump handpicked Warsh with not-so-subtle expectations to slash rates. But the economy has other ideas, and Warsh’s fellow central bankers are warning that a rate cut could do more damage than good.

The biggest worry is inflation, which hit a three-year peak of 3.8% in April. Traders responded by dumping US bonds, pushing the 30-year Treasury yield to 5.197%—the highest since before the 2008 financial crisis.

High yields are a problem on a few fronts. It means the US government’s massive debt load gets heavier. It’s also bad for Wall Street, since investors tend to pile in when bonds are delivering strong, safe returns—leaving less capital for stocks, hurting share prices.

Meanwhile, Main Street America isn’t feeling so hot either, and soaring gas prices are the least of their problems. Mortgage rates recently hit their highest level in nine months, which means shopping for a home, car, or any big purchase couldn’t get much worse. Consumer sentiment is already at an all-time low; Americans feel worse now than they did during the Great Recession, 9/11, or the Covid pandemic.

All of this has prompted a rising tide of investors to anticipate that the Fed’s next move could be to raise rates rather than deliver the cut Trump has been gunning for. Although the odds of a quarter-point rate hike at the FOMC’s June meeting are under 4%, the odds that the Fed will raise rates go up as the year goes on, reaching more than 42% by December.

Whatever happens, it’ll be interesting to see if Warsh can manage to take Trump’s advice and “do his thing”—and how long it takes Trump to coin an insulting nickname for him.—JD

🟢 What’s up

• Workday rose 5.16% after beating earnings expectations, with strong subscription growth easing fears that AI would disrupt the sector.
• Zoom Communications gained 9.19% on a top- and bottom-line beat, driven by customer growth and rising adoption of its AI Companion product.
• Estée Lauder climbed 12.35% after ending merger talks with Puig and reaffirming confidence in its turnaround efforts.
• Dell Technologies advanced 16.77% ahead of earnings as analysts pointed to growing AI demand, while HP also rose 15.25% on optimism around its AI push.
• Merck jumped 5.64% after a late-stage lung cancer study showed its treatment cut tumor progression risk by 65%.
• IMAX surged 15.47% following reports that the company is exploring a potential sale.

What’s down

• Reddit fell 5.58% after Meta launched Forum, a standalone app built around Facebook groups.
• Chinese brokerages Futu and UP Fintech Holding plunged 27.53% and 25.34%, respectively, after China’s securities regulator moved to penalize firms operating without proper licenses.
• BJ's Wholesale Club fell 8.25% despite beating earnings expectations and reaffirming guidance.
• Take-Two Interactive dropped 4.42% as weak bookings guidance overshadowed stronger quarterly results.
• T1 Energy slid 7.34% as the stock continued to face pressure following recent short-seller allegations.

To say 2026 will be a big year for IPOs is an understatement.

SpaceX is ramping up for what will likely be the largest IPO in history as soon as next month, targeting a nearly $2 trillion valuation. Meanwhile, OpenAI is reportedly preparing IPO paperwork, and is hoping to go public at a valuation as high as $1 trillion as soon as September. Then there’s Anthropic, which is also reportedly eyeing a fall IPO that could also be valued at roughly $1 trillion.

The size of these megacap offerings is truly mind boggling: “Those three companies would exceed every US VC-backed IPO in the last decade combined in terms of IPO proceeds,” explained PitchBook research analyst Emily Zheng. “We’re definitely in unprecedented times.”

She added that just SpaceX alone, if its valuation is higher than $1.25 trillion, would be greater than the past decade’s worth of IPOs combined in terms of total exit valuations.

We spoke to Zheng about how the IPO market has changed over the past few years, how these megacap IPOs could transform markets, and whether these monster valuations are really justified.

Our conversation has been edited for length and clarity.

In recent notes, you explained that the venture market has never been worth more, yet the IPO market remains relatively frozen. We’ve seen more IPO activity over the last year, but for years the market was effectively stalled. Why does that dichotomy still exist, and what needs to happen for the market to move more freely?

The market initially froze because of rising interest rates in 2022, which caused a pause in a lot of venture capital activity. Since then, it’s been difficult for the IPO market to restart for several reasons. First, valuations were extremely high during the pandemic era, and we started seeing more valuation markdowns among unicorn IPOs last year. That’s a step in the right direction, but it’s also difficult for companies to go public at valuations below their private-market peaks.

Click here to keep reading about the future of the IPO market, and what investors should watch for when companies like OpenAI and SpaceX hit the market.

The New York Times’ Connections game is famous for its absurd and random categories, like “Things that could be a Wi-Fi password or an Elon Musk baby name.” Top contender for next outrageous category? ETFs.

ETFs are venturing into weirder and wilder territory these days. Just look at the UFO Disclosure ETF, which turns UFO speculation into an investment strategy. The fund bets that if governments ever confirm or release advanced technology linked to UFOs that’s currently hidden from the public, the companies helping develop or commercialize those breakthroughs could see massive upsides.

Despite the out-of-this-world pitch, the fund has garnered just $2 million in assets, and it charges a steep 0.99% annual fee—well above the average expense ratio of 0.48% for index ETFs in 2025.

Then there’s the Bitcoin and Treasuries AfterDark ETF. For a 0.97% annual fee, the fund holds bitcoin—but only outside regular stock market hours, rotating into Treasuries or cash during the trading day, then re-buying the crypto king after the market closes. Strange as it sounds, there may actually be something to it: Investors who held bitcoin continuously since January 2024 would have earned returns of 65.2%, but those holding it only overnight would have seen gains climb to 213.8%, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Putting the fun in funds

Not every niche ETF is a gimmick. Many are centered around very real themes—particularly the massive buildout happening across AI infrastructure.

The Roundhill Memory ETF, better known by its ticker DRAM, has been gaining serious traction lately. Much of the appeal comes from its concentrated exposure to the memory-chip makers benefiting most from the AI boom: roughly 75% of the portfolio is allocated to Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung. For US investors, that exposure is especially attractive because the latter two are difficult to invest in directly without buying broader Korea-focused funds. As a result, investors were quick to pile into the fund following its April 2 launch, helping it pull in roughly $1 billion within its first 10 trading days.

What investors should watch for

The ETF industry is rapidly changing. What was once viewed as a simple, low-cost, diversified way to invest is increasingly turning into a playground for speculative trades and concentrated bets. In fact, more than a quarter of this year’s ETF launches now depend heavily on the performance of a single asset, according to the WSJ. In the case of the Roundhill Memory ETF, just seven companies make up nearly the entire portfolio.

So while the latest ETF craze may promise everything from alien tech to overnight bitcoin alpha, investors should probably do a little digging before yolo-ing into the next shiny ticker.—SY

• Want something fun to do this holiday weekend? Enjoy the “Enhanced Games”—an Olympics spinoff supported by Donald Trump Jr., where athletes are encouraged to take performance-enhancing drugs.
• Remember dividends? Here’s how AI has been driving them to extinction.
• The CEO of Standard Chartered apologized for calling AI-replaceable-employees “lower value human capital.”
• Regular investors are getting frustrated that they can’t invest in hot stocks right when they’re soaring in value.
• The SEC delayed a plan to allow tokenized stock trading.
• Here are the three companies traders believe the government will take a stake in next.

Monday: Stock (and bond) markets are taking the day off here in the US for Memorial Day—and so will we!

Tuesday: The short work week begins with a few regional Fed reports—like Dallas Fed manufacturing activity for May, and Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity—as well as the Case Shiller Home Price Index. As for earnings, we’ve got AutoZone, Zscaler, Paramount Skydance, Pony.ai, and Box.

Wednesday: We’ve got a bonanza of Fedspeak from the likes of Chicago’s Austan Goolsbee, Dallas’ Lorie Logan, and governors Lisa Cook and Philip Jefferson. As for earnings, Marvell, Salesforce, Synopsys, Snowflake, HP, Abercrombie & Fitch, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Bath & Body Works, and Manchester United are all worth watching.

Thursday: April PCE is sure to grab headlines, but we’ll also get reports on new home sales and initial jobless claims. On the earnings front, there’s Costco, Dell, Autodesk, MongoDB, Dollar Tree, Burlington Stores, Kohl’s, Hormel Foods, The Gap, and Okta.

Friday: No earnings reports of note to end the week, but we’ve got the US advance goods trade balance for April, as well as both retail and wholesale inventories for April.