We’re sorry to be a killjoy, but while everyone is distracted by shiny rockets, we’ve got to bring you back down to earth to talk about oil.

Oil prices fell to a three-month low this morning, with Brent crude trading around $86 a barrel, after President Donald Trump suggested that the US was nearing a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. It’s yet another moment of whiplash after a week full of highs and lows for oil traders. And whether Trump is right this time matters more than usual, because the world’s oil supply is running on fumes.

Since the Strait closed, the world has stayed supplied largely by drawing down stored oil, and those stockpiles are hitting dangerously low levels:

• US government reserves of oil, gas, and other fuels are scraping their lowest levels since 1983.
• Aaron Brady, an energy analyst at S&P Global, told Axios that if the strait stays closed for just one more month, US inventories will approach minimum operating levels, with other countries close behind.
• Stockpiles across the world, including in Japan, South Korea, and Europe, are dwindling as well.

Say more…

Goldman Sachs analyst Daan Struyven laid out three potential pricing scenarios in a note published yesterday:

• In a benign scenario, if exports out of the Gulf normalize by mid-July, Brent crude would average only $70 in the first quarter of 2026, and fall to $60 in 2027.
• In Goldman’s “adverse” scenario, Brent crude would average over $110 in the fourth quarter of 2026, assuming exports out of the Gulf normalize by the end of October.
• In the ominously titled “severely adverse scenario,” in which the strait remains disrupted through 2027, Brent crude would rise to an average $140 in 2027.

But compared to research from Macquarie, Goldman’s forecast is pretty optimistic. A note from the Australian multinational argues that if the Strait of Hormuz is still closed by Labor Day, Brent crude prices could skyrocket up to $150 a barrel.

So far, the oil market has bent without breaking throughout the conflict, which cuts both ways. It means doomsday predictions have repeatedly missed, and it also means analysts really don’t know what comes next. Meanwhile, others are skeptical that—even if a deal is reached—a disrupted market can bounce back that quickly. —LB

🟢 What’s up

• CoreWeave, Nebius Group, and Teradyne gained 5.02%, 4.55%, and 5.72%, respectively, after being selected for inclusion in the Nasdaq 100.
• Woodside Energy rose 6.14% on reports that Exxon Mobil is evaluating a potential acquisition of the Australian producer.
• AMD climbed 4.73% after a Citi upgrade highlighted its ability to gain market share in AI chips.
• Enliven Therapeutics surged 14.3% after the FDA cleared the path for its Phase 3 ENABLE trial.
• Charles Schwab advanced 2.71% after reporting a record $49.9 billion in net new assets in May, up 43% from a year earlier.

What’s down

• EchoStar dropped 10.97% despite its stake in SpaceX, as investors rotated into the newly public rocket maker. Peers Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile also fell 10.79% and 15.53%, respectively.
• Lennar fell 4.9% after second-quarter revenue missed Wall Street expectations.
• Adobe slipped 6.76% despite beating earnings estimates and raising guidance, with investors focusing on the departure of CFO Dan Durn.
• RH fell 3.89%, giving back yesterday’s gains as weaker-than-expected current-quarter revenue growth guidance overshadowed strong earnings.
• Sharon AI tumbled 12.85% despite announcing a six-year agreement with Nvidia.

Humanity minted the world’s first trillionaire today: Elon Musk, whose net worth shot up over the $1 trillion mark after the SpaceX IPO debuted at $135 per share. (Even prior, Musk’s fortune was double that of the second-richest person in the world, Google co-founder Larry Page.)

Just how much money is a trillion dollars? That’s more than the GDP of Switzerland. Even if Musk were to spend $1 million every hour, every day, it would take over a century to burn through it all.

Worth noting: Musk only hit this milestone on paper, since the 4.8 billion SpaceX shares he owns (about 42% of the company’s common stock) are under 366-day lockup, longer than the standard 180. So, his spending spree will have to wait until next summer.

How long it took: Musk, 54, first started raking in real money at the age of 27 after selling Zip2 for $22 million; the sale of PayPal added another $180 million in 2002. Two years ago, Musk was trading first place for world’s-richest back and forth with Jeff Bezos and LVMH’s Bernard Arnault before Musk pulled ahead.

Who’s next? Based on average wealth growth rates, Informa Connect Academy projected that Musk will be joined by three new trillionaires in 2028: Gautam Adani of India’s Adani Group, Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, and Indonesian petrochemicals king Prajogo Pangestu. Still, as Musk proved, fortunes rarely grow at a steady rate, so take this trillionaire leaderboard for what it is: an educated guess that could reshuffle with the next IPO.—JD

Step aside, Larry Fink. For the first time in more than two decades, BlackRock has been dethroned as the ETF industry’s largest player. Vanguard now wears the crown, managing roughly $4.39 trillion in ETF assets and attracting $291 billion in net inflows this year—about $100 billion more than its rival.

The changing of the guard was made possible by Vanguard’s flagship S&P 500 ETF, which became the first ETF ever to surpass $1 trillion in assets last week as investors piled into US stocks during recent market volatility.

The victory also validates Vanguard’s deliberately simple strategy. While BlackRock offers nearly 480 US-listed ETFs spanning everything from private credit to crypto, Vanguard has just 116, largely focused on ultra-low-cost index funds tied to stocks and bonds.

The ETF buffet

The ETF industry looks very different now compared to when BlackRock first rose to the top. Today, investors can buy funds tied to AI, crypto, and even UFO disclosure theories. And with the World Cup underway, there’s a whole menu of ways to turn soccer into an investment thesis, from host-country funds to sports-betting plays.

But here’s the thing about the ever-expanding buffet: Almost no one is eating from most of it. The vast majority of assets still sit with just Vanguard, BlackRock, and State Street. Not to mention, Vanguard took the crown with the simplest menu of the three. It’s a good reminder that despite endless ETF flavors, most investors still order vanilla.—SY

• The US and Iran are looking to sign a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz at the G7 next week, Bloomberg reported today. Pakistan’s Prime Minister says the two countries have agreed to the “text” of a deal.
• ChatGPT officially has a billion users.
• Former Western Asset Management co-CIO Ken Leech agreed to plead guilty to charges that he steered profitable trades toward preferred clients.
• The White House will host a UFC match on the South Lawn on Sunday. But a winner has already been declared: Paramount Skydance.
• Wearable-tech companies Oura and Whoop are hoping to go public soon, but some investors are skeptical.

What’s coming Monday

Earnings: Woodside Energy and Dave & Buster’s Entertainment share their earnings reports.

Everything else: The G7 kicks off on Monday in France. No surprise: The Iran war is expected to be top of the agenda.