The world’s most clogged waterway has reopened (temporarily), sending markets soaring and oil prices spiraling.

President Trump thanked Iran on social media for loosening its grip on the Strait of Hormuz, but maintained that the US’s own naval blockade would remain parked firmly in place until a peace deal is signed. Meanwhile, some shippers are leery of heading straight into the strait since they’ll have to detour from their prewar route and be at the mercy of the Iranian military.

Still, despite some jitters, the good news was enough to get markets moving. Here are today’s biggest winners and losers.

• Crude is cheaper: Brent crude futures, the worldwide benchmark, slid by 8.79% today to $90.65 per barrel.
• US oil stocks slumped: Exxon Mobil, Chevron, and Shell are down big time as the “war premium” padding their shares fades.
• Fertilizer freefall: An opened Strait means fertilizer and chemicals can once again flow out of the Middle East and to American farmers, punishing companies like CF Industries and Dow Inc.
• Cheaper fuel fuels cruise lines: Cruise ships are gas guzzlers, but the lower price of oil means that Royal Caribbean, Carnival, and Norwegian won’t be squeezed quite so badly.
• Airline stocks are flying high: Cheaper fuel helped airlines like United, American Airlines, Delta, and JetBlue soar. Today’s news might have also saved Spirit Airlines, which is on the brink of liquidating due to higher jet fuel prices.
• The dollar is down, wiping out all of its gains since investors flocked to the safe-haven asset when the war with Iran began.

What’s next? Now that oil is presumably free to flow through the Strait once again, fears of rising inflation are evaporating, and a Fed rate cut this year may be back in the running. Odds that the Federal Open Market Committee may lower interest rates in 2026 shot up from 29.5% on Thursday to over 45% today, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Yet although cheaper oil prices and a bullish stock outlook may seem to be in the cards, remember that it’ll take awhile before any oil makes its way to our shores. Plus, a lasting peace agreement hasn’t been signed just yet. Until that happens, it’s probably best to not buy blindly into market exuberance until the ink dries on a deal and gas prices settle back down into regular road trip territory.—JD

🟢 What’s up

• Strategy climbed 11.8% as bitcoin rallied on ceasefire news.
• Critical Metals Corp. surged 35.49% after Greenland approved the transfer of a 50.5% stake in Tanbreez Mining, paving the way for rare earth development.
• Automotive safety supplier Autoliv rose 6.82% after posting strong earnings and backing full-year guidance, despite geopolitical uncertainty.
• Semiconductor company Onto Innovation jumped 8.84% following a Q1 revenue beat and an upgrade to Buy from Stifel.
• Ally Financial edged up 8.1% after beating earnings expectations, even as revenue came in light.

What’s down

• Water meter manufacturer Badger Meter fell 24.13% after misses across the board, with EPS, revenue, and operating income all below estimates.
• Alcoa dropped 6.64% after missing earnings estimates and reporting a 5% year over year decline in revenue.
• Albemarle slid 8.29% on a downgrade to Neutral by Baird, with analysts warning that rising global supply could cap lithium prices.

We’ve seen this film before.

Netflix shares plummeted 9.72% today—its biggest one-day loss in four years—after the company reported strong headline numbers for Q1, but projected weak guidance. Revenue grew 16.2% year over year, EPS nearly doubled, and the company confirmed it got a $2.8 billion breakup fee from the failed Warner Bros. deal. But revenue growth projections for the current quarter came in at 13%, just below the 14% analysts expected, and the firm made no change to its previous full-year revenue guidance, despite raising prices in March. One final plot twist? Legendary cofounder Reed Hastings will be departing his role as board chair this summer.

But according to Seaport Research Partners analyst David Joyce, the battered stock has the makings of a classic comeback story. He just raised his price target for Netflix from $115 up to $119 in a note yesterday—22% higher than where shares are trading now—arguing that with the question marks of the Warner deal finally removed, executives can refocus on their long term strategy. He added that shares could actually reach as high as $138 if the company’s ad business beats expectations and its new gaming business and live TV end up being smash hits.

He wasn’t the only analyst who thinks Netflix deserves a rerun: “We buy the dip with numbers not moving much (we nudge up FY27 EPS to $3.87) and debates around engagement and AI unsettled, but find valuation compelling for a compounder with pricing power,” wrote Morgan Stanley equity analyst Sean Diffley today. He gives Netflix an overweight rating and a price target of $115.

Even some of the more skeptical analysts are still bullish. “While we remain believers in the longer-term business prospects, in the first quarter following its decision to walk away from the Warner Bros. acquisition, we would have expected a clearer and more compelling articulation of management’s near‑to medium‑term outlook,” explained Bank of America analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich, who reiterated the firm’s buy rating and $125 price target.

Netflix may have delivered a lackluster season, but the stock hasn’t been cancelled yet.—LB

The age-old debate has always been sweet vs. savory—but right now, the real divide is sweet vs. spicy.

Cocoa chaos

First the (not so) sweet: Chocolate companies are struggling to navigate an unusually volatile cocoa market: Prices fell from $12,000 per metric ton in 2024 to $2,900 as of Febuary—a 75% drop in just over a year. But even though cocoa’s cheaper than it once was, demand hasn’t recovered: European demand is down 7.8% year over year, and North American demand fell 3.8% in the first quarter, according to the Wall Street Journal.

For chocolate companies like Barry Callebaut and The Hershey Company, that’s a pretty tough setup. Many bought cocoa at elevated prices, only to face weakening consumer appetite, while the recent drop in cocoa prices has come too late to ease their costs. The result: They’re selling less chocolate, made with more expensive inputs, into a softer market—compressing margins and raising the risk of losses if prices don’t rebound ASAP. In fact, Barry Callebaut has already lowered its outlook, warning that the rapid price decline is weighing on profitability.

In response to this volatility, companies are increasingly looking to reduce their reliance on cocoa altogether: Many manufacturers are reformulating recipes, using fillers, substitutes, and even experimenting with lab-grown cocoa to manage costs and limit exposure to price swings.

Welcome to Flavortown

But while chocolate makers pull back, spice companies are leaning in. Pantry staples like herbs, seasonings, and extracts have quietly become one of the strongest categories in grocery stores, with volumes up 10% over the past year compared with four years ago, according to NielsenIQ.

McCormick in particular is pushing aggressively into that demand, pursuing a multibillion-dollar deal with Unilever’s food division to scale its flavor business globally. It’s also leaning into the hot sauce boom, where Gen Z and millennials now outspend every other generation, according to the WSJ.

Competitors are moving in the same direction: Nestlé is entering the US condiments market with a new line aimed at home cooks, while Kraft Heinz is channeling more capital into its Heinz sauces as part of a broader push into flavor-forward products.

How to play it: Chocolate is melting under pressure, but Hershey’s strategy is to increase R&D spending by 25% this year in hopes that innovations like AI can help it find cost savings in its production process. For now, 15 out of the 19 analysts covering Hershey give it a “hold” rating—they’re waiting to see how things shake out with cocoa prices.

Meanwhile, spice is heating up: Wall Street is largely bullish on McCormick’s deal with Unilever, and Bank of America analysts reiterated their “buy” rating earlier this month, citing the combined company’s global scale and McCormick’s opportunity to leverage Unilever brands like Hellman’s and Knorr.

TLDR: The next phase of growth in the consumables industry might just be served with a little kick.—SY

• Here’s how the New York Stock Exchange, the storied pillar of Wall Street, is going full debauchery mode.
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• AI chipmaker Cerebras is expected to file for an IPO as soon as today.
• UnitedHealth still isn’t out of the woods yet.
• Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei is heading to the White House today to discuss the company’s new high-powered AI model, Mythos.
• Here’s some fun news to kick off the weekend: The $10 billion startup working diligently to replace you in the workforce is run by kids in their 20s who’ve never had a real job.

Monday: Earnings arrive in full force next week, but the first day is pretty calm, with just Cleveland-Cliffs and Steel Dynamics kicking things off.

Tuesday: General Electric, UnitedHealth, RTX, Intuitive Surgical, Interactive Brokers, Capital One Financial, ASM, DR Horton, MSCI, EQT, Halliburton, and United Airlines keep the earnings ball rolling. But all eyes turn to Washington, DC for a confirmation by the US Senate Banking Committee for Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s nominee for Federal Reserve Chair. And don’t forget, we’ve got US retail sales, pending home sales, and US leading economic indicators.

Wednesday: Tesla kicks off Mag 7 earnings, and will be joined by Lam Research, GE Vernova, Philip Morris, IBM, Texas Instruments, AT&T, Boeing, CME, ServiceNow, Boston Scientific, Moody’s, CSX, Kinder Morgan, and Southwest Airlines.

Thursday: The busiest day of the week includes reports from SK hynix, Intel, American Express, SAP, Thermo Fisher Scientific, NextEra Energy, Blackstone, Union Pacific, Honeywell International, Lockheed Martin, Newmont, Sanofi, Comcast, Freeport-McMoRan, Digital Realty Trust, Baker Hughes, Nokia, Nasdaq, DNB Bank, PG&E, Keurig Dr Pepper, Dow, and American Airlines. Beyond quarterly recaps, we’ll also get weekly initial jobless claims, as well as flash services and manufacturing PMI readings.

Friday: Procter & Gamble, HCA Healthcare, Charter Communications, Norfolk Southern, and SLB wrap up the week of earnings reports. Plus, we’ve got the final March reading of consumer sentiment.