Like its founder, SpaceX is the most hyped—and the most controversial—unicorn of the moment. Nothing has been business as usual when it comes to the satellite/rocket/AI company’s impending IPO: First, its pricing strategy is unconventional. Instead of setting a range and amending it after meeting with investors, the company said in a weekend filing that it plans to sell 555,555,555 shares at $135—a bold and definitive move. There are signs that retail investors might propel that price even higher when the company starts trading on the Nasdaq on June 12. That would mean SpaceX would raise about $75 billion at a valuation of $1.77 trillion. It would be the biggest IPO in history, and would also mean the company doubled its value from just six months ago. And even more out of this world? SpaceX’s proposed valuation is an eye-popping 95x its 2025 revenue of $19 billion. To bulls, the brash display of confidence is a green flag that Musk sees strong demand from investors. The retail crowd that’s devoted to Musk’s companies is all in. And the banks are mobilizing, too: Jamie Dimon is selling SpaceX to high-net-worth investors himself. The bears are coming out of hibernation SpaceX is garnering as many skeptics as fans. After all, the company failed to make a profit last year, losing $4.9 billion. Despite doing all of the things, it hasn’t actually nailed down how to be a lucrative business. Right now, SpaceX is actually a quite successful satellite company, thanks to Starlink. But in its filing, SpaceX says it wants to, “Build the systems and technologies necessary to make life multiplanetary, to understand the true nature of the universe, and to extend the light of consciousness to the stars.” That certainly sounds like no easy feat. Concerns about the business model (or lack of one) spurred Morningstar analysts to offer their own valuation of SpaceX, far lower than the private market’s, at $780 billion. Cue the short sellers swarming. And the doubts don’t stop at the balance sheet. While its acquisition of xAI is part of what’s driving up SpaceX’s astronomical valuation, it’s also its biggest vulnerability: It exposes shareholders to an expensive, highly competitive industry that’s largely speculative. “In the ‘catalyst’ scenario, these companies [SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI] go public and perform well,” explained Pitchbook analyst Emily Zheng in an interview last week. “The ‘distraction’ scenario, or the unfavorable scenario, would be if they don’t perform well. That could trigger a broader market reset around whether AI companies are overvalued.” How can investors gauge whether SpaceX will be able to meet its lofty valuation? Zheng says watch revenue: “They’ve been able to get a lot of private money, but at a certain level, they need much more. So in a way, the defining question will be: How quickly can they get costs down and revenue up?” Only time will tell: Either the bulls will drop back down to earth, or the bears will be left earthbound as SpaceX rockets toward the stars. —LB |