• Stocks: Indexes started the day strong, but as investors digested Kevin Warsh’s inaugural Jackson Hole address, they realized they didn’t much like what they heard: This was the first time since 2022 that the S&P 500 fell on the day of a Fed chair’s speech.
• Commodities: Today marks the six-month anniversary of the Iran war, and with no end in sight, even the Wall Street pros aren’t sure where oil prices go next.
• Bonds: Traders were mollified by Warsh’s comments this afternoon, though questions still remain (more on that below).

The Fed

Morning Brew

All eyes were on Kevin Warsh today as he took the stage at Jackson Hole for the Fed’s closely watched annual policy retreat. Investors were hoping for clues about what comes next for interest rates. What they got instead was a warning: Inflation is still too high, and the Fed isn’t counting on it to come down by itself.

“We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed,” Warsh said. “Otherwise, we have work to do.”

Warsh is referring to the Fed’s 2% inflation target, as measured by the PCE index. Inflation has remained above that target since 2021, and headline PCE just climbed to 3.7% in July. “While this summer’s PCE and CPI readings were better than expected, they do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved,” he said.

At the same time, the economy is looking pretty strong. Warsh said the US may be at a “hinge point in history,” pointing to booming business investment—particularly the AI infrastructure buildout—alongside strong corporate profits, resilient consumers, and a stable labor market.

Wall Street shrugs it off

Strong economy + high inflation = the Fed has room to keep rates high, or potentially raise them further. That hawkish equation pushed the odds of a September rate hike to 57.5%, from just over 30% earlier this week, according to CME FedWatch.

The 2-year Treasury yield jumped about 10 basis points following the speech, reflecting growing expectations for higher near-term rates. Longer-term yields, meanwhile, moved much less, suggesting investors see the inflation fight as more of a near-term policy problem than a dramatic shift in the economy’s long-run outlook.

Stocks remained unfazed: The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq barely budged today, buoyed by lingering enthusiasm from Nvidia’s blowout earnings.

Fed up with guidance

Perhaps the bigger takeaway from Jackson Hole wasn’t what Warsh said about the next rate move, but his stated directive to…state very little.

For years, the Fed has relied heavily on forward guidance—signaling where policymakers expect rates to go so businesses, consumers, and investors can prepare in advance.

But Warsh wants to pull back that practice, arguing that while forward guidance was essential during the 2008 financial crisis, it has since “overstayed its welcome.” Warsh argues that giving markets too many clues can box policymakers into decisions before all the data is in, and create what he has described as a “hall-of-mirrors” problem, where the Fed reacts to markets that are themselves reacting to the Fed.

Instead, Warsh is pushing for a “quieter” Fed. That means fewer clues and more reliance on economic data for investors, potentially creating more volatility. “We should not indulge a regime in which market participants are looking primarily to the Fed for their next trade,” Warsh said.

It makes for an ironic ending to the year’s biggest Fed gathering: Wall Street went to Jackson Hole looking for clarity, only to leave with more guessing to do.—SY

      

Sponsored By Nasdaq

Nasdaq’s suite of index options offers investors the opportunity to capitalize on the performance of the innovative companies featured on the Nasdaq-100 Index® (NDX®).

Whether to protect a portfolio against a market correction, hedge risks, or generate yield enhancement, Nasdaq’s two index options—Nasdaq-100 Index® Options (NDX®) and Nasdaq-100® Micro Index Options (XND®)—give both retail and institutional investors the ability to stay invested in equities while reducing downside risk.

Like most other investments, options contracts are subject to taxes. However, index options can benefit from a different tax treatment: 40% of any gain (or loss) is taxed at the short-term capital gains rate, and 60% is taxed at the appropriate long-term tax rate.

PS: This 60/40 split is applicable even if the index option is held for less than a year.

Learn more.

Stocks

🟢 What’s up

• Amazon climbed 3.97% following an Evercore ISI price-target hike, with the firm arguing that AI shopping tools could boost retail sales.
• Workday gained 5.76% on second-quarter results that beat Wall Street estimates.
• Gap popped 12.80% on news that Michael Francis will take over as CEO of Old Navy in November.
• Software company Elastic surged 19.30% thanks to stronger-than-expected earnings and a higher outlook.
• Solstice Advanced Materials jumped 12.76% after scrapping its planned acquisition of Element Solutions, a deal investors had pushed back against.
• DraftKings advanced 4.29% while Flutter Entertainment gained 7.13% following a court ruling that dealt a blow to prediction markets like Kalshi, easing a competitive threat to traditional sportsbooks.

🔴 What’s down

• Marvell Technology tumbled 10.28% as its fiscal 2028 outlook fell short of lofty expectations following its recent Google deal.
• PayPal sank 12.71% on reports that Advent and Stripe walked away from a potential takeover.
• Rubrik slipped 13.05% despite strong earnings, 38% revenue growth, and a higher full-year outlook.
• IREN fell 12.53% despite an earnings beat and 110% sequential growth in its AI cloud business.
• Autodesk dropped 3.67% on a weaker-than-expected outlook that overshadowed its quarterly earnings beat.

Stat of the day

Help wanted—for the next decade

Illustration: Morning Brew Inc., Photos: Adobe Stock

If you’re hoping to stay employed for the next ten years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics just handed out some career coaching.

The BLS predicts that the US will add 5.9 million jobs from 2025 to 2035, pushing total employment to 176.2 million. That’s 3.5% growth, just a shadow of the 10.9% recorded in the previous decade.

So which career paths are on a tear? Utilities has the lead, with the industry slated to expand 9.8% thanks to AI’s insatiable appetite for power—though the category’s so small, that “tear” only amounts to 58,800 new gigs. Coming in second at 9.5% growth is private healthcare and social assistance, but don’t let that silver medal fool you: It’s actually the real job-creation champ, delivering 2.2 million new roles (37% of all new positions) as Americans age into needing nursing and other assistance.

In third place at 8.6% is the sector we all have mixed feelings about: AI, which will add 926,700 new jobs in professional, scientific, and technical services. That’s the good news. The bad? BLS also predicts AI will wipe out 752,100 office and administrative support roles, with plenty more losses in the arts, entertainment, media, sales, and manufacturing.

AI may be eating white-collar jobs for lunch, but blue-collar gigs aren’t bulletproof, either. With more communities protesting data centers going up in their backyards, politicians who’ve vowed to fight on their behalf face a backlash of their own: Construction labor unions are threatening to pull their support, warning that blocking these projects could cost the hard-hat crowd thousands of paychecks.

Bottom line? As the AI job-pocalypse rolls on, the safest job left might be answering phones at the unemployment office.—JD

Video Games

Illustration: Morning Brew Inc., Photo: Rockstar Games

Gamers call it Grand Theft Auto—we’re calling it Grand Theft Market Share.

After multiple delays, the highly anticipated GTA VI is finally arriving in a few short months, and analysts are forecasting a windfall for the publisher behind the game: Take-Two Interactive Software.

Shares jumped 1.03% after the company released its trailer for the video game on Netflix last night, with the game itself expected to officially launch in November. The preview was so popular that it crashed the streaming service.

If you’re not a video game aficionado, we’ll explain why GTA is a BFD: It’s expected to be the biggest entertainment launch of all time. Some estimates suggest that the game could generate over $3 billion in revenue in its first week alone.

Just to get a sense of how popular the franchise is, GTA V is still in the top five best-selling video games every single year, despite being 13 years old, according to CNBC. And GTA Online, the multiplayer companion to GTA V, still rakes in about $9.6 million per week, or almost half a billion dollars per year.

Analysts are doing a double take

People who played GTA IV in elementary school aren’t the only ones excited about returning to Vice City. Analysts at Morgan Stanley, BTIG, and JPMorgan have all released notes on Take-Two recently, and all have made bullish calls on the stock.

“Historically, these highly-anticipated game launches have driven significant institutional and retail engagement with game publisher stocks, particularly as marketing campaigns begin

in the final 3-6 months,” wrote Morgan Stanley equity analyst Matthew Cost in a note today.

“Our analysis of four past examples shows an average peak appreciation of 13% in the final 3 months leading to launch. Ultimately, we expect increased investor attention but limited near-term execution risk to create a potent tailwind for share performance,” Cost added. Morgan Stanley’s price target on Take-Two is $280—19% higher than where shares trade today.

Accolades like that are a welcome boon for Take-Two, given shares were down roughly 9% in 2026 before today, and its latest earnings report was nothing to write home about. But GTA VI is changing the game—literally.—LB

      

Sponsored By State Street Investment Management

Planning for your financial future? The right foundation makes all the difference. Help build your portfolio with DIA and get exposure to 30 of the world’s most recognizable companies in a single trade. Discover DIA—the only ETF to track the Dow.

News

• AI is haunting Wall Street wherever it goes—even on a fishing trip.
• A group of US oil giants, including Chevron, are getting close to a deal to invest billions in Venezuela’s oil fields.
• Apple just raised subscription prices for Apple TV and Apple One in the US.
• A high-stakes case against prediction-markets platforms Kalshi, Robinhood, and Crypto.com will likely go to the Supreme Court.
• The AI boom has bolstered an unexpected industry: trucking.

Calendar

Tuesday: With Nvidia in the rearview mirror, the bulk of earnings season has officially come to an end—just a few names remain, including Dell, Nio, and Medtronic. Meanwhile, the labor market comes into focus this week beginning with the July JOLTS reading.

Wednesday: Earnings keep trickling in from the likes of Broadcom, Snowflake, C3 AI, and Ollie’s Bargain Outlet. We’ll take a peek at private employers with the ADP payroll report, and we’ll also crack open the Fed’s Beige Book.

Thursday: Lululemon, Docusign, Ciena, and Campbell’s wrap up a quiet week of earnings. Weekly initial jobless claims keep the spotlight on the labor market, but the US trade balance for July should make for interesting reading as well.

Friday: The week concludes with the US jobs report for August, a pivotal piece of the economic puzzle the Fed’s trying to solve ahead of the September FOMC meeting.

recs

🃏 Prediction markets, stock markets, you name it—everything is gambling in America. Now, so are trading cards.

🔥 Enjoy a tour through the nine circles of financial hell.

📉 These 20 stocks will probably keep losing money, even as the bull market rages on.

🧑‍🧑‍🧒‍🧒 The best safety net you can provide your kids is a full-disclosure family financial meeting.

🌪️ El Niño threatens to disrupt weather patterns across the globe. Meet the investor who’s betting on it to bank him big profits.

^{*A message from our sponsor.}

This time last week...

💼 Readers’ most-clicked story was about the one simple strategy that improves your odds of getting hired—and everyone can do it.