• Commodities: Both Brent and WTI crude fell below $100 per barrel today after President Trump said he’d be willing to meet with Iranian leaders at the UN assembly this week. But diesel prices hit a new all-time high over the weekend, spelling more pain at the pump (more on that later).
• Stocks: Indexes soared thanks to lower crude prices and sinking bond yields, with tech stocks in particular pulling the market higher. The Nasdaq enjoyed its first record close since early June.
• Crypto: Bitcoin broke above $86,000 for the first time since January, buoyed by inflows from investors happy to finally get some clarity from Congress.

Critical minerals

Illustration: Morning Brew Inc., Photos: Nathan Howard/Getty Images, Adobe Stock

For a place mostly covered in ice, Greenland is having a surprisingly green day.

Greenland Energy surged 141.26%, Greenland Mines soared 230.53%, and Critical Metals climbed 38.63% after President Trump announced a new security arrangement with Denmark and Greenland on Friday. The agreement would expand the US military presence on the island while keeping Greenland under Danish sovereignty.

Investors are betting the closer relationship could eventually mean more American money and support for Greenland’s mining projects, especially regarding its deposits of rare earths and other critical minerals.

“We will immediately begin the process of developing a large Military presence in the appropriate part of Greenland, of which there are many. We will work with the people of Greenland in its development and construction,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post.

Building beyond China

Rare earths are a group of metals used in everything from AI infrastructure and EVs to fighter jets and smartphones. China dominates the supply chain, accounting for about 70% of rare-earth mining and roughly 90% of rare-earth alloy and magnet production.

That gives Beijing considerable leverage. China severely curtailed flows of rare-earth magnets and critical minerals to the US last year as trade tensions escalated, and improving those flows is already part of the agenda ahead of Trump’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday.

By deepening ties with Greenland and building out an alternative supply chain there, Washington could reduce its reliance on China and strengthen its hand in future negotiations.

Betting on the buildout

It also helps explain why investors are piling into Greenland-linked resource stocks.

Greenland Energy is a broad resource bet with plans to spend about $60 million drilling for oil in eastern Greenland. Critical Metals is the clearest rare-earth play through its Tanbreez project, one of the world’s largest rare-earth hard-rock deposits, in the southern region of the territory. And Greenland Mines is another potential winner through Sarfartoq, its rare-earth project in the southwest.

Still, investors shouldn’t get ahead of themselves: Critical Metals isn’t expected to begin mining in Tanbreez until late 2028 or early 2029, while Greenland Mines is still working toward a pre-feasibility study at Sarfartoq.

But if Washington follows through, today’s rally could just be the tip of the iceberg for Greenland’s role in the global minerals race.—SY

      

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Stocks

🟢 What’s up

• Meta jumped 11.43% as its newly launched Muse AI assistant continues to gain popularity.
• Intel gained 12.14% as the success of Meta’s Muse AI assistant fueled optimism about demand for its processors.
• Shopify also enjoyed a 7.33% gain after announcing it will directly integrate its storefronts to Meta’s new AI.
• AMD climbed 9.95%, pushing its market value above $1 trillion for the first time.
• Accenture gained 2.66% on a new partnership with Anthropic to evaluate and deploy its AI models.
• Grail surged 33.68% ahead of a regulatory review this week of Galleri, its blood test designed to detect multiple cancers before symptoms appear.
• Warner Bros. Discovery rallied 10.79% after Paramount Skydance struck a deal with regulators that will allow the two companies to merge.
• Moderna gained 12.27% after three studies on its experimental cancer vaccine, developed with Merck, were accepted for presentation at a major oncology conference.

🔴 What’s down

• Novo Nordisk fell 7.96% as investors weighed the drugmaker’s plans to revive growth in its obesity-drug business.
• HP dropped 4.22% after holding off on issuing its full-year outlook amid expectations for continued weakness in the PC market.
• UPS slipped 4.35% on concerns that slowing shipments from Amazon could weigh on its business.
• Tobacco company Turning Point Brands fell 10.02% after cutting its full-year profit outlook, citing higher freight costs, and announcing a CEO change.

Game of the day

Mahjong makes moves

Illustration: Shannon May, Photo: Adobe Stock

Mahjong has been stacking up fans for some time now. With origins in nineteenth-century China, the tabletop tile game has become a buzzy social pursuit in recent years, and its new popularity has dealt out a new term: mahjong mania.

Cards on the table: But mahjong is just one component of a larger trend around IRL games, especially among young people. A July report from the Harris Poll finds that nearly three-quarters of Gen Z wishes they had more places to gather where drinking isn’t the main activity.

Enter the going-out game night. Social events popping up around backgammon, Rummikub, Exploding Kittens, and more have all become major draws for young people to connect somewhere other than the club. And for investors, major game-makers are also picking up a win.

• Hasbro, which manufactures classics like Scrabble and Monopoly, has seen its shares climb a modest 7% this year. But sales of its red-hot Magic: The Gathering trading cards surpassed $500 million in quarterly revenue for the first time earlier this year.
• Asmodee, maker of the popular Settlers of Catan, has captured a market of its own, with shares up 56% this year.
• While only partially owned by Nintendo, Pokémon has been throwing down major numbers with valuable cards selling at more than $1 million of late. The trading card market, valued at $8.4 billion last year, is expected to hit nearly $17 billion by 2035.

So what’s next for the tile, trade, and tabletop market? The game’s on—and returns may be in the cards.—GR

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Macro

Illustration: Morning Brew Inc., Photo: Adobe Stock

Prices at your local gas station are an unpleasant, visible reminder that the cost of oil has climbed higher. But if you turn your attention away from the unleaded options and glance over at the diesel pump, you’re in for a bigger shock.

AAA reported that the price of diesel hit $6.51 per gallon on Sunday, a new all-time high that stands far above the $3.69 that drivers were paying just a year ago. That’s bad news for everyone, even if you don’t drive a gas guzzler.

Pump pain means economic strain

You know by now that higher energy prices spur on higher inflation: The more it costs to transport goods, the more a company will charge consumers for those goods. But while CPI has risen from 2.9% in February to 3.4% last month, higher gas prices haven’t bitten as hard as they could thanks to buffers like strategic reserves and demand destruction thanks to fewer summer roadtrips.

Diesel is a different beast entirely. Agricultural production is fueled by diesel, as is the construction industry. Shipping depends on diesel at every level, from cargo ships to freight trains to last-mile delivery trucks dropping off your Amazon packages. And you can’t transport raw materials like coal, lumber, and iron ore without burning diesel.

Global gas inventory has cushioned the blow from higher gasoline prices this summer. But the closure of a key Saudi Arabian overland pipeline last week, coupled with Russia becoming likely to extend its ban on diesel exports, means there’s suddenly serious pressure on diesel prices—and soon, everyday Americans will begin to feel that pressure, too.

So, what happens next?

Last Friday, JPMorgan Chase analysts made an extraordinary announcement: They have no idea how to forecast future oil prices. “For the first time since the start of the Iran conflict, we don’t have a baseline view. We simply don’t know how to model the endgame,” wrote Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities strategy.

Kaneva’s problem is that all the economic pain thresholds analysts thought the Trump administration wouldn’t cross are now firmly in the rearview mirror, including $100 per barrel of oil, $5 per gallon of gas, and a 5% 10-year Treasury yield. Yet here we are, seven months into a war that shows no signs of stopping.

Unfortunately, there’s no relief coming down the pipeline anytime soon. ExxonMobil wants to enter the Venezuelan oil industry, while Chevron is planning to expand its operations there, but ramping up production in Venezuela will take far too long to have an effect on domestic fuel prices.

Heads up: Higher fuel costs may hurt consumers, but there could be some benefits for investors. Oil industry insiders have been buying back their shares in bulk lately, preparing for a world where energy prices remain elevated and their companies get to reap the rewards. It’s also worth noting that, despite the surge in oil prices this year, energy stocks still look largely undervalued.

But that’s one of the very few upsides to record diesel prices among a lot of painful problems.—MR

      

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News

• Turns out tech stocks are now the cheapest they’ve been since the launch of ChatGPT.
• Even used cars won’t score you a deal in this economy.
• Oura is ready to ring some bells, announcing today it’s seeking a $2.2 billion IPO.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he had a productive meeting with China’s vice premier He Lifeng over the weekend, teeing up the Trump & Xi summit later this week.
• SoftBank will do whatever it takes to keep investing in OpenAI, including raising $11 billion in a junk bond sale.
• Eli Lilly’s CEO boasted that one-third of GLP-1 patients are taking the company’s new Foundayo pill.

Calendar

AutoZone drives by with an earnings report in the morning, while KB Home will close things out in the afternoon.

Elsewhere, the UN General Assembly is set to kick off in New York City tomorrow. Items on the agenda include the war in Iran, the war in Ukraine, the trade war with China, and of course, AI.

recs

🏘️ Buyer beware: These are the 10 most overvalued housing markets in the country.

🤑 Where are you heading on payday? Here’s the most common thing Americans do as soon as they get paid.

📈 Everybody loves a comeback story: Take a look at these four stocks worth buying before they rebound.

🥺 Passive investing is actively winning: 63% of all US fund assets are now in passive ETFs and mutual funds, leaving stock pickers to struggle for the leftovers.

🏆 What do you get when you mix market-beating returns with strong dividend growth? 15 excellent stock picks.

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🍋‍🟩 Readers’ most-clicked story was about one thing wasting away in Margaritaville: Jimmy Buffett’s $275 million fortune.