• Bonds: Another day, another new record—30-year Treasury yields climbed to their highest level since 2002.
• Stocks: Rising yields sent stocks tumbling lower, as did comments from Fed Governor Michael Barr that the central bank needs to hike interest rates.
• Economy: Consumer confidence fell to its lowest reading since 2014, thanks to higher oil prices and rising inflation. Plus, a US ban on $1 billion of Canadian goods went into effect today: Here are all the products that were impacted.

IPOS

Getty Images/Morning Brew Inc.

We’ve all heard it: AI could take our jobs, outsmart humans, or, if you ask some, kill us all. Anthropic isn’t interested in dispelling the rumors.

The Claude maker’s newly leaked IPO prospectus spends a sizable chunk of its 261 pages laying out everything that could go wrong as AI gets smarter, including “catastrophic or existential risks to humanity.” But for investors considering buying in, the scarier reading may be the 48 pages covering the actual business.

Among the numbers inside:

• Anthropic is seeking a valuation above $2 trillion, more than double the $965 billion valuation estimated in May.
• While revenue grew twelvefold in 2025 to nearly $4.6 billion, the company still posted a net loss of roughly $42 billion. Most of that came from an accounting charge, but operating losses still exceeded $8 billion. In other words, for every dollar the company brought in, Anthropic lost $9.
• Of at least $518 billion committed to cloud computing and other AI infrastructure over roughly the next decade, about 80% is effectively noncancelable.
• Two customers accounted for nearly a quarter of revenue last year, and the firm disclosed that many major customers are not locked into long-term contracts.

It’s quite the filing, full of shaky numbers—leaving some to suggest that if the company’s name weren’t Anthropic, going public would be out of the question. It also leaves investors wondering whether Anthropic’s heavy emphasis on AI safety also gives it cover for weak financials by framing slower growth as a matter of caution rather than execution.

The waiting game

Anthropic is now expected to go public after the November midterm elections, later than previously planned—but still ahead of OpenAI, which has delayed its IPO until early 2027 over safety concerns. Whoever gets there first will do more than claim bragging rights: They will give public investors their first real chance to put a price on a frontier AI company, setting the tone for how much markets will tolerate the sector’s combination of explosive growth, enormous losses, and even bigger capital requirements.

Big Tech isn’t the only corner of the market getting cold feet. Today, smart-ring maker Oura also postponed its offering. “We aim to deliver an extraordinary IPO for our employees and investors, and we have the luxury of choosing our moment,” CEO Tom Hale said in a statement.

He’s not wrong: The company is doing pretty well, as revenue rose 74% in the nine months through June, while net income jumped to $60.8 million from $1.6 million a year earlier. But it signals that the turbulent market has sent companies scrambling—and perhaps this won’t be the last one to delay its public offering.

High price, high risk

At $2 trillion, Anthropic could be the largest IPO ever. That big, flashy number captures a lot of attention, but don’t let it distract you from taking a hard look at how much the company is really worth.

With $4.59 billion in revenue, a $2 trillion valuation would give Anthropic a price-to-sales ratio of 435x. For reference, SpaceX’s P/S ratio is one of the highest on the market at 115, while the average across the S&P 500 is 3.3.

It’s an exorbitant price to pay for a company that keeps losing money. Oura’s hesitance to IPO is an indication that today’s turbulence isn’t going anywhere, and the combination of market volatility and Anthropic’s weak financials might mean this is one debut you may want to avoid.—SY

      

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Stocks

🟢 What’s up

• Carnival Corp. gained 13.34% after reporting record quarterly revenue and better-than-expected earnings.
• CarMax jumped 4.92% on quarterly earnings that beat Wall Street expectations.
• Summit Therapeutics surged 5.88% on a $2 billion investment from AstraZeneca.
• Bloom Energy rallied 10.80% on a Jefferies price-target hike and plans to expand its manufacturing footprint in California.
• Shopify rose 2.95% as Morgan Stanley highlighted the company as a potential winner from the growth of AI-powered shopping.
• SpaceX gained 2.59% on a TD Cowen Buy rating that pointed to Starship’s potential to boost its Starlink and AI businesses.
• Netflix climbed 1.55% following a Deutsche Bank upgrade that pointed to stronger growth opportunities outside the US.
• Iovance Biotherapeutics jumped 31.48% after raising its full-year revenue outlook thanks to growing demand for its melanoma treatments.
• Warby Parker popped 11.39% on plans to launch smart glasses this fall with Samsung and Google.

🔴 What’s down

• Apple fell 2.66% on reports that it’s considering a broad restructuring aimed at becoming leaner and releasing products more frequently.
• Lindt dropped 9.38% after cutting its full-year sales growth forecast amid weaker chocolate demand in several European markets.
• UniQure plunged 37.33% after its experimental gene therapy for Huntington’s disease fell short in a closely watched study.
• Six Flags Entertainment slipped 5.81% after announcing the closure of its X2 roller coaster after an investigation raised safety scrutiny.

Person of the day

Goldman's man on deck

Illustration: Morning Brew Inc., Photo: Saul Loeb/Getty Images

After nearly a decade of David Solomon’s home runs for Goldman Sachs, we may finally know who’s batting next. The Wall Street Journal reported today that Goldman’s board has discussed a plan for John Waldron to step up as its next CEO—and it could happen as soon as next year.

Waldron, Goldman’s current chief operating officer and president, has been seen for some time as Solomon’s natural successor. He’s logged more than a quarter-century at the bank, having joined in 2000 after starting his career at Bear Stearns. That puts plenty in common with the top boss himself: Solomon arrived a year prior from the same firm.

Solomon’s shoes to fill

In his eight-year tenure, Solomon overhauled Goldman’s business, exploded revenue, and oversaw a tremendous turnaround that had share prices knocking it out of the park. And that was all while moonlighting as DJ D-Sol, at least until a buttoned-up board made him put his nights spinning aside.

Waldron’s career has otherwise closely followed his boss’s: When Solomon moved up to CEO, Waldron was named COO and president. And while Solomon’s $80 million retention bonus drew headlines (and controversy) for its sprawling size, Waldron received the same one.

What’s left to know is whether his management style will hew as closely to D-Sol. One thing that sets him apart so far: OneGS 3.0, Waldron’s forward-looking transformation plan introduced late last year, with special attention to how AI could accelerate the bank.

Investors aren’t convinced: Goldman shares dropped 1.35% today. But for those still attached to their star player, there is good news: If the plan is executed as discussed, Solomon will still hang around the dugout, remaining executive chairman of the Goldman board for a year or two after he leaves the CEO role.—GR

Investing

Morning Brew Inc.

As if homebuyers don’t already have enough numbers to stress about, the credit score your lender actually cares about may be changing.

Fair Isaac, the company behind FICO scores, plunged 26.52% today after a months-long government effort to bring more competition to mortgage lending took another big step forward.

FICO’s moat got crowded

For decades, one name has dominated the mortgage credit-scoring business: FICO. If a lender wanted to originate a mortgage that could ultimately be sold to Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, a FICO score was effectively part of the process. Every time that score was pulled, Fair Isaac got paid.

Now, that moat is eroding. Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) Director Bill Pulte announced yesterday that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will move to a single mortgage-pricing grid that includes both Classic FICO and VantageScore, a credit score model developed by Equifax, Experian, and TransUnion as an alternative to FICO. The move puts the two scoring systems on more equal footing inside the conventional mortgage market.

Then, the other shoe dropped: Rocket Mortgage said it will make VantageScore 4.0 its preferred scoring model for eligible loans beginning this quarter. That gives investors their clearest sign yet that FICO’s new competition could translate into actual lost business, rather than just another regulatory headache.

It’s not just FICO

Equifax, TransUnion, and Experian, which helped create VantageScore, seem like they’d be big winners now that FICO is losing its competitive advantages. Instead, shares of all three fell today because regulators are also scrutinizing the broader credit-reporting business.

Pulte has accused Equifax, Experian, and TransUnion of overcharging consumers, and said the agency is considering a “bi-merge” system that could let mortgage lenders use reports from only two credit bureaus instead of three. That could reduce a recurring source of revenue for the bureaus, even if VantageScore itself gains market share.

So what does that mean for homebuyers? The truth is, the impact is modest.

VantageScore can weigh some borrowers differently than Classic FICO, potentially helping people with thinner traditional credit histories qualify for mortgages. More competition could also lower some of the costs lenders pay to check credit.

But scoring fees are still a small part of the affordability problem. Freddie Mac’s average 30-year mortgage rate reached 7.03% last week for the first time since early 2025. A new credit score won’t make an expensive mortgage cheap. But it could change who qualifies for one, while forcing some of the companies that have long charged lenders to assess borrowers to compete harder for the business.

As for Fair Isaac shareholders, they’ll have to wait and see whether other large lenders follow Rocket. Regulators have already created the alternative—the only question is how much mortgage volume actually moves away from FICO.—HC

      

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News

• OpenAI said it will not release its new AI model, GPT-6.1 Astra, over safety concerns.
• Morgan Stanley has launched a crypto lab to explore technology like stablecoins and tokenization.
• New signals from the IRS suggest the agency will bar trades that help the wealthy slash their taxes.
• Apollo’s chief economist warned about the possibility of a bank run built by AI agents.
• Even with strong jobs numbers, unemployed workers are finding that it’s taking increasingly longer to land a job.
• Another industry that could profit from the data center boom: major catering companies.
• After meeting with tech leaders, President Trump touted “self-regulation” as the answer to AI fears.
• Wake up babe, a new Ponzi scheme just dropped.

Calendar

We get twice the data as usual, with a double feature of the ADP National Employment Report and the PCE reading for August. Micron Technology will report earnings after the bell, and before the market opens we’ll hear from major food suppliers Cal-Maine and Conagra.

recs

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🤖 Readers’ most-clicked story was about the AI infrastructure stock that could triple its share price in the next three years.