Turns out Alibaba’s latest product isn’t just Qwen-tessential—it’s starting to look like a real Qwen-tender in the AI race.

Chinese online retail giant Alibaba announced today that its revamped AI assistant Qwen notched 10 million downloads in its first week of public beta. Shares popped 5.1%.

Long compared to Amazon for its global e-commerce reach, Alibaba is now leaning harder into AI under CEO Eddie Wu. The company has prioritized AI investment since 2016 and has participated in over $3.3 billion in AI deals since late 2022, making it China’s “most aggressive AI investor,” Wei Sun, principal analyst at Counterpoint, told CNBC.

“Alibaba plans to deeply integrate core lifestyle and productivity services — including digital maps, food delivery, travel booking, office tools, e-commerce, education, and health guidance — directly into the Qwen App,” the company noted in a statement. While many US mega-caps are burning cash to scale their models, Alibaba says Qwen is already breaking even.

A changing competitive landscape

The AI race is intensifying. Qwen enters a field once dominated by OpenAI’s ChatGPT, but the top dog now seems to be Google’s Gemini 3, which launched last Tuesday.

Google’s parent Alphabet has staged a massive comeback in the AI race. The stock was trading at just 20X forward earnings last year, cheaper than the S&P 500 and making Alphabet one of the cheapest stocks in the Magnificent Seven.

But sentiment has flipped: Alphabet shares have surged nearly 90% in the past 12 months, hit a record high last week, and even drew in fresh buying from Berkshire Hathaway. Shares rose yet another 6.28% today.

That momentum is reshaping the competitive landscape. Melius analyst Ben Reitzes recently warned that, if Alphabet ultimately outpaces OpenAI, it could disrupt the ChatGPT maker’s ability to meet its industry-wide commitments—creating an opportunity for companies like Alibaba as they scale their own models.

What's next?

Alibaba plans to ramp up spending on AI model development and infrastructure, in addition to the $53 billion it’s already committed to spending over three years.

Some investors see massive upside: Matthew Peterson of Peterson Capital Management says Alibaba could crack $1 trillion in market value within five years as it becomes the go-to AI platform for Chinese users who can’t access US apps like ChatGPT or Gemini.

With Alibaba reporting earnings tomorrow, investors will finally see whether its AI push—and Qwen’s early momentum—translate into real financial muscle, or if the download frenzy was just a lot of Qwen-tity without the quality.—SY

🟢 What’s up

• The AI trade regained some momentum: Broadcom rose 11.1%, Micron Technology gained 7.99%, and Nvidia rallied 2.05%.
• Oscar Health led insurers higher, rising 22.28% on reports that President Trump will propose a two-year extension of Affordable Care Act subsidies.
• Tesla added 6.82% as CEO Elon Musk revealed on X that the company is nearing completion of its next AI chip.
• Inspire Medical Systems skyrocketed 30.54% following a ratings upgrade from Stifel, which highlighted a favorable reimbursement update.
• US Foods rose 7.76% after it called off merger talks with Performance Food Group, which lost 2.33%.
• Bayer climbed 10.08% after announcing that a late-stage trial for its stroke drug succeeded, a result that also lifted rival Bristol Myers Squibb by 3.26%.

What’s down

• Grindr tumbled 12.14% after announcing that its board ended discussions with two board members regarding their non-binding $18/share takeover proposal.
• European defense names pulled back amid reports that Trump is pushing for a Ukraine peace deal. Thales fell 2.36%, Rheinmetall sank 6.37%, and BAE Systems lost 4.02%.
• Arcellx declined 16.89% after rival biotech Kelonia Therapeutics released encouraging early-stage data for its experimental blood cancer treatment.
• Tegna fell 3.55% after Trump criticized efforts to lift the cap on local TV station ownership, a regulatory change that would be necessary for the company to be acquired by Nexstar Media.

Forget running your own fund—the best way to understand finance is to write a newsletter (trust us).

Apparently Michael Burry, famed for forecasting the great financial crisis as depicted in the movie The Big Short, agrees. Burry took to X in late October to let the world know he believes the red-hot AI trade is a bubble just waiting to pop. He put his money where his mouth is and placed massive short bets on both Nvidia and Palantir via his hedge fund, Scion Asset Management, sparking fury from Palantir CEO Alex Karp.

While betting against AI makes him something of a maverick, Burry’s next move was unprecedented. He deregistered his hedge fund last week, and on Sunday he re-emerged with his next big thing: a substack.

Dubbed Cassandra Unchained, Burry’s substack contains two posts so far. The first is an introduction filled with personal history, while his second has a bit more bite. There, he calls the AI boom a “glorious folly,” while warning that big tech companies like Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon and Oracle are in over their heads. The newsletter has about 35,000 subscribers and counting.

Burry says his blog “gives you a front row seat to his analytical efforts and projections for stocks, markets, and bubbles.” But Burry is a famously bearish guy, so why don’t we just save you the $379 annual subscription fee and spoil it: He’s going to tell you to sell your tech stocks.—MR

Novo Nordisk has been under the weather for the past year, but the company’s prognosis just got even worse.

Today, shares of Novo Nordisk fell 5.58%, plummeting to a four-year low after the company said that a long-shot clinical trial for a highly anticipated Alzheimer's drug had failed to reach a key milestone, and that development of the treatment would be discontinued.

Novo was hoping that the key ingredient of its cash cow weight-loss drug—semaglutide—could be a two-hit wonder, helping cure Alzheimer’s as well as helping patients drop pounds.

But according to Novo’s trial, semaglutide didn’t make enough of a difference in patients to show it was working. Novo previously called the trials for the drug, a pill called Rybelsus, a “lottery ticket” in an effort to try to prepare investors for the unlikely possibility that the ingredient would help slow cognitive decline. But still, the trial was closely watched by analysts, given that if the drug had worked, it would open up an entirely new market for semaglutide usage.

Novo’s ailing year

While Novo was the first pharma giant to start distributing its ultra-popular GLP-1 drug Ozempic, it massively fumbled its first-mover advantage after a slew of supply chain problems. That allowed rival Eli Lilly to come out with its own similarly massively successful GLP-1 weight-loss drug, Zepbound, and steal Novo’s shine.

Since then, Novo hasn’t been able to get its mojo back: Novo’s share price has dropped 47.52% this year, it replaced its CEO, and it conducted mass layoffs as the company struggles to regain its footing. Meanwhile, arch rival Eli Lilly reached a record $1 trillion valuation on Friday after surging 38.28% year to date.

But some analysts argue that today’s selloff was melodramatic, given Novo had told everyone the trials were a long shot. In fact, most analysts covering the stock still gave Novo Nordisk an “overweight” rating. There’s also still hope that GLP-1 drugs could be used to prevent other kinds of medical conditions like heart attacks and strokes.

But it's too early to call a comeback quite yet.—LB

• Here’s why one analyst thinks Tesla can make a massive comeback.
• A new precious-metals company called Battalion Metals was just launched by former Fox News host Tucker Carlson.
• Amazon announced it will invest $50 billion in AI infrastructure for US government agencies.
• Telehealth startups are now pitching “microdosed” GLP-1 drugs to consumers as cosmetic enhancements instead of medical treatments.
• President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping held their first trade talks since last month today.
• Broadcom is the latest hot AI stock, and it’s all thanks to Alphabet.

Tuesday brings two reports delayed by the government shutdown: September US retail sales and September PPI. We’ll also get the usually scheduled S&P Case-Shiller home price index, pending home sales, and an early look at consumer confidence in November.

We’ve got plenty of earnings reports to watch for tomorrow from the likes of Alibaba, Analog Devices, Dell, HP, Dick’s Sporting Goods, JM Smucker, Workday, Zscaler, Burlington Stores, Nio, and Abercrombie & Fitch.