• Iran: The ceasefire between the US and Iran grew more strained over the weekend as the two countries exchanged missile strikes. President Trump put the naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz back in place today, and declared the US will charge a 20% toll on cargo.
• Stocks: Rising tensions in the Middle East sent stocks tumbling, while investors took profits across the tech sector—especially the memory trade—forcing indexes even lower.
• Commodities: A new blockade sent crude prices soaring today, boosting oil stocks, while gold continued to sink as investors fret about the likelihood of an interest rate hike at the end of this month.

Tech

Morning Brew Inc.

After a rough stretch marked by underwhelming AI announcements, soaring memory prices squeezing margins, and now a high-profile lawsuit with OpenAI, Apple has staged a remarkable comeback. Shares rose 0.63% today to a record intra-day high, making Apple the best-performing Magnificent Seven stock this year, up 16.72% in 2026.

Part of that optimism stems from Apple’s core business: Revenue is expected to grow nearly 15% in fiscal 2026—its fastest annual expansion since 2021—as investors bet consumers will upgrade to a new product lineup, including Apple’s first foldable iPhone model expected to launch in September. In fact, the company has reportedly increased its production target for the foldable iPhone to roughly 10 million, up from 7 to 8 million.

Another catalyst is Apple’s restrained AI strategy. While rivals continue pouring tens of billions into AI infrastructure, Apple has largely stayed on the sidelines, preserving cash. The company is expected to generate a record $140 billion in free cash flow this year, about 40% higher than 2025. Alphabet, meanwhile, is expected to see free cash flow plunge by about two-thirds.

The tab keeps growing

At the same time investors are applauding Apple’s muted AI investments, they’re worrying about Meta’s massive AI spending—and today’s announcement only added to those concerns. The company raised its planned investment in its Louisiana AI campus to $50 billion, up from the original $10 billion, as it works to double its computing capacity to 14 gigawatts next year. Shares sank 1.86% today.

Meta was already expected to shell out between $125 billion to $145 billion this year, and with more money now flowing out, investors have to wonder whether all that spending will ultimately pay off. JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth recently reiterated a Neutral rating on Meta, arguing that while the company’s latest Muse Spark AI model is encouraging, it has yet to demonstrate the broader adoption needed to justify the company’s rapidly growing AI bill.

Wall Street is also becoming wary of Big Tech’s borrowing spree. So far this year, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Oracle, Nvidia, and SpaceX have already issued about $244 billion of bonds, more than double last year’s $108 billion, per Dealogic. The race to raise money is increasing borrowing costs, while these bonds aren’t selling like they once were as investors anticipate more debt issuance ahead.

Seoul selloff

Big Tech’s AI spending isn’t the only headwind. The sector is also increasingly tied to South Korea’s market, where SK Hynix plunged 15% as investors took profits following its Nasdaq debut. While the company’s US shares ended the day flat, the damage was already done, and the selloff spread to US memory stocks, sending SanDisk, Western Digital, and Micron down 12.63%, 4.64%, and 4.32%, respectively.

That makes Apple’s gains today even more impressive. While everyone else races toward an AI finish line that may not even exist, Apple is busy doing what it has always done best: selling iPhones.—SY

      

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Stocks

🟢 What’s up

• AI platform provider Braiin gained 16.59% with the launch of Aria, an AI agent built for the real estate industry.
• Biogen rose 4.96% on a Truist upgrade ahead of new Phase 2 Alzheimer’s drug data.
• Chinese EV maker NIO climbed 3.14% after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock, citing improving growth and profitability.
• Stellantis advanced 1.27% as second-quarter vehicle shipments increased 10%, driven by strong demand in North America.
• Boat maker Twin Vee PowerCats surged 415.77% after announcing a merger with a subsidiary of USFM Corporation and plans to spin off its recreational marine business.

🔴 What’s down

• TSMC slipped 2.89% despite reporting a 68% jump in June revenue ahead of earnings later this week.
• AppLovin fell 12.65% as Bank of America flagged slower growth in the company’s e-commerce advertising business.
• First Hawaiian declined 3.29% after agreeing to acquire TriCo Bancshares in an all-stock deal valued at roughly $2 billion.
• SpaceX fell 4.24%, extending its recent pullback as shares continued to retreat from their post-IPO surge.

Call of the day

The anti-AI trade

Getty Images

As you read in our story above, investors are growing increasingly worried that the AI trade has run its course. They’re rapidly repositioning themselves to hedge against an implosion in the tech sector, and one industry they might want to consider is about as anti-tech as you can get.

Farming may not be your first thought when you go looking for growth investments, considering that the American agricultural industry has been down in the dumps for a while now. Farm bankruptcies climbed 46% between 2024 and 2025 to levels not seen since the 1980s, thanks to a combination of a trade war with China cutting into profits, a real war with Iran raising fertilizer prices, and a drought that covered over 36% of the US last year.

But the agricultural sector is highly cyclical, and with that cycle reaching a low point, it might be a great time to buy good agricultural stocks for cheap. That’s why D.A. Davidson analysts are bullish on AGCO, a farming equipment manufacturer, and Deere, of green tractor fame.

AGCO is up 9.32% this year, slightly trailing the S&P 500, while Deere has climbed a solid 25.82%, but both could be strong stock picks if the agricultural sector turns things around—and if the rest of the market realizes it’s time to take profits out of AI and pivot back into the HALO trade.—MR

Earnings

Morning Brew Inc.

Just like the cyclosporiasis infections sweeping the US, earnings are exploding into the news this week.

It all begins with the five of the biggest banks in the country: Bank of America, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup are dropping their latest reports tomorrow morning in what’s being hailed as “Super Tuesday.” But with so many numbers suddenly swamping investors’ news feeds, it might be handy to know what to look for ahead of time.

Big money

Two of banks’ biggest business lines—trading and M&A fees—are set to impress once again in Q2.

The war with Iran continued to cause some serious market volatility in the second quarter—upheaval that investors, particularly retail traders, have taken advantage of—which should help Wall Street keep its hot streak of strong trading gains intact. Combined revenue from trading at the six biggest banks in the country (the five above, plus Morgan Stanley) rose to nearly $50 billion last quarter, and analysts expect more of the same this quarter.

It’s also been a great quarter for deals and IPOs, which give banks juicy fees. Goldman Sachs led the charge for the SpaceX debut, but Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, Citigroup and Bank of America will all get a piece of that extremely profitable pie.

Buy the rumor

The problem is that all of the positive vibes above are well-telegraphed, meaning that even strong earnings reports could be sell-the-news events. But one bank that’s recently been left behind by its Wall Street peers could be ready for a comeback that hasn’t already been priced in.

Citigroup is in the midst of a multi-year turnaround featuring a massive reduction in management layers and the consolidation of several company divisions that have begun to yield dividends. Last quarter, the bank reported its highest revenue in a decade, while its return on tangible common equity—a key financial metric for judging financial stocks—rose to its highest level since 2021. Despite the recent wins, Citigroup’s forward P/E ratio is among the lowest of the big banks.

That might turn this laggard into a leader after earnings arrive, but all of Wall Street looks set to announce some big wins tomorrow morning.—MR

      

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News

• Elon Musk and Sam Altman are fighting again, thanks to Apple.
• The Paramount-Warner Bros. merger drama isn’t over yet, as multiple state attorneys general just filed a lawsuit to block the deal.
• Strategy just paused its Bitcoin selling spree, choosing to raise nearly $500 million in cash instead.
• The odds of the Fed hiking interest rates in two weeks are rising.
• A new study suggests prediction markets may be a lot worse at predicting than their biggest fans think.

Calendar

Earnings announcements: We’ve got a lot of data to dive into this week, but it all begins with the June CPI reading. With much of the inflationary pain caused by conflict in the Middle East already baked in, economists expect headline CPI to fall from May’s red-hot reading—but core inflation should remain steady, presenting more problems for new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to face.

Economic reports: The hits don’t stop coming, with announcements from JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup.

Everything else: The World Cup is wrapping up soon, with France facing Spain in the semifinals tomorrow. And in other sports news, the MLB’s Home Run Derby is tonight, followed by the All-Star Game tomorrow.

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