| | | | | | | | Data is provided by |  | *Stock data as of market close. Here's what these numbers mean. | - Stocks: Reports that commercial vessels have begun to trickle through the Strait of Hormuz under US protection helped ease investor fears of rising tensions in the Middle East. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 all closed at record highs.
- Commodities: Brent, the international crude standard, and WTI, the US version, fell as the US said the ceasefire with Iran remains in place, though both benchmarks are still well above $100 per barrel.
- Fear: The CBOE Volatility Index fell today as optimism continues to climb. A reading above 20 indicates high uncertainty, while anything below 20 points to calming nerves.
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Investors love a good comeback story—not because it’s particularly heartwarming, but because they can buy a beaten-down stock for cheap and watch its turnaround fill their portfolios with profits. So far this earnings season, we’ve already seen a few examples, including Harley-Davidson. The motorcycle maker unveiled its new and improved gameplan in its earnings call this morning, named “Back to the Bricks” (c’mon, “Revving Revenue” was right there). The key points of the plan include rolling out affordable motorcycle models, improving operational efficiency, and growing overall market share. Management predicts that the effort will result in EBITDA margins of 10% to 12%, up from forecasts of 4% this year. As for the company’s Q1, the results beat analysts’ low expectations by enough to rev shares 8.23% higher today. But the company is working to climb out of a years-long rut: Shares are still down 49% over the past five years, and have only climbed 5.63% over the past 12 months, seriously underperforming the S&P 500. Three cheers Then there’s Anheuser-Busch InBev, the maker of Budweiser, Stella Artois, and Corona. The largest brewer in the world managed to pull off a rebound quarter despite our unfortunate era of sobriety. Analysts had been expecting AB InBev to continue its downward slope, which started in 2023 when consumers started drinking and going out less thanks to an uptick in inflation. But strong beer sales in Latin America last quarter propelled it to its first sales-volumes growth in three years. If you can’t beat ’em, join ’em: Another factor driving the beer maker’s comeback was…making non-beer products. Revenue from no-alcohol beer rose 27% year over year last quarter. Shares of the beverage maker jumped 8.73% today. “Cheers to beer,” AB InBev CEO Michel Doukeris said in a statement. But maybe “cheers to tasty fizz” would have been more fitting. Intel-ing some good gossip Intel, though, is enjoying the greatest victory lap of all, after shares hit an all-time high today. Sure, the chipmaker has been on a winning streak this whole year, so it’s not a rags-to-riches story in the short term. But the recovery has been a long time coming: Until last month, shares still hadn’t completely recovered from their downfall in 2000. Today’s 12.95% rally wasn’t spurred by Intel’s strong earnings last month, but by reporting from Bloomberg that suggests the company will secure a major hardware manufacturing deal with Apple. But be warned: The report has yet to be verified by either company. It’s truly a sign of the times that the biggest comeback of all isn’t based on solid results, but more hope and hype.—LB | | |
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🟢 What’s up - Pinterest gained 6.86% on an earnings beat and an upbeat revenue growth forecast.
- Micron Technology jumped 11.1% as surging AI-driven memory demand boosted sentiment.
- Crypto exchange Bullish climbed 11.4% after announcing a $4.2 billion deal to acquire transfer agent Equiniti.
- Cytokinetics surged 16.71% following positive Phase 3 results for its treatment of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, a condition with no treatments currently on the market.
What’s down - PayPal fell 7.76% as weak near-term guidance overshadowed an earnings beat.
- Palantir slipped 6.93% as Jefferies analysts flagged slowing growth in its US commercial segment despite strong earnings results.
- Firefly Aerospace dropped 5.54% as a wider-than-expected operating loss offset an earnings beat.
- Shopify declined 15.63% as earnings missed expectations despite solid revenue growth.
- BioNTech tumbled 3.88% after announcing plans to restructure and lay off nearly a quarter of its workforce to cut costs.
- Duolingo fell 5.62% as user metrics missed expectations despite revenue growth.
- Coinbase dropped 2.58% after announcing plans to cut roughly 14% of its workforce amid market volatility and AI-driven shifts.
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Yesterday afternoon, UPS and FedEx shareholders felt a great disturbance in the Force—as if millions of packages suddenly cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced. It wasn’t hard to find the cause: Amazon announced it is entering the logistics business, turning its massive supply chain network into a standalone unit called Amazon Supply Chain Services. Amazon has followed the same playbook it used with its Web Services division: turning an internal operation into an externally-facing service provider. It’s been investing in its logistics network for years now in order to better serve a single customer—itself—but now plans to offer its fleet of planes and trucks to companies like Procter & Gamble, 3M, and American Eagle Outfitters. This makes Amazon a third-party logistics provider, or 3PL, and Wall Street loves the idea. Bank of America analysts noted the 3PL market is worth $1.3 trillion, and if Amazon captures even a few percentage points of that market it will boost the company’s retail revenue nicely. Meanwhile, it puts Amazon in direct competition with FedEx and UPS—and when you’re going up against the largest company by revenue in the US, shareholders understandably begin to sweat. Neither have the technological edge that Amazon does when it comes to coordinating inventory, optimizing fulfillment, and analyzing real-time shopping data. Each lost more than 9% yesterday when the news broke, and shareholders are wary that there may be more pain ahead.—MR |
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All the Charles Leclerc fans out there must be pleased: Ferrari is having a moment. The sports car maker just reported earnings that beat expectations on both the top and bottom lines, and reaffirmed its full-year guidance. But the stock still fell 3.97% as investors zeroed in on a 4.4% year over year drop in deliveries. Management said the decline was due to a planned model transition, and added that the Iranian conflict had no impact, as deliveries were shifted across regions. Notably, the results land just weeks before Ferrari’s May 25 debut of the Luce, its first fully electric vehicle. Ferrari is optimistic about the new EV’s reception, though sports car enthusiasts have been vocal about their disdain—not for EVs themselves, but for the car’s Apple-inspired design choices. Ford charges ahead Ford is also leaning further into EVs, even as the path forward remains costly and uncertain: The company has racked up roughly $19.5 billion in EV-related restructuring charges, while facing headwinds ranging from the rollback of US consumer incentives to internal leadership turnover. Still, the automaker is pressing ahead with its new “Universal Electric Vehicle” (UEV) platform, which it hopes will underpin its next generation of models. It’s a key part of the plan to bring its loss-making Model e unit to breakeven by 2029, and better compete with market leaders like Tesla and Chinese automakers. A growing EV market The EV push is coming at a good time. In March alone, new EV sales rose 20%, while used EV sales surged 54%, according to Bloomberg. Europe saw particularly strong momentum, with France, Germany, and the UK collectively recording a 44% increase in EV purchases year over year. Part of that strength comes from higher gas prices pushing consumers toward alternatives, alongside a wave of more affordable Chinese models entering global markets. China, in particular, continues to lead the space, now accounting for about 23.6% of global EV market share—up roughly 70% over the past five years. Its advantage comes down to speed and cost: Chinese automakers can bring new models to market in 20 months, or about half the time of traditional players, while benefiting from strong government support and lower production costs. Looking ahead, while China has been leading the EV race, legacy players like Ford and Ferrari are leaning in to capture some of that momentum. And with economists expecting the Middle East conflict to keep supporting EV demand—even if gas prices fall—the timing could work in automakers’ favor.—SY | | |
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Economic reports: The ADP Employment report will tell us a bit about how private employers are faring in today’s economy, while Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will be the first of many Fed speakers we hear from this week. Earnings announcements: Some big names drop their latest quarterly numbers, including Disney, Uber, CVS Health, Kraft Heinz, Marriott International, Snap, DoorDash, and Arm Holdings. |
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