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Wheeling and dealing
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Plus, earnings from around the market.

Good afternoon. As if the real-life AI race wasn’t cinematic enough already, we’re now getting a The Social Network-style blockbuster telling the story of Sam Altman’s rapid firing and rehiring by OpenAI two years ago.

The $40 million movie Artificial will reportedly feature Andrew Garfield as Altman and Ike Barinholtz as Elon Musk. Luca Guadagnino, director of steamy tennis flick Challengers, is in talks to helm the project—and if his last movie is anything to go by, we can’t wait to watch the feuding billionaires settle things in the bedroom rather than the boardroom.

—Mark Reeth, Judy Dutton & Lucy Brewster

MARKETS

Nasdaq

21,020.02

S&P

6,358.91

Dow

45,010.29

10-Year

4.388%

Oil

$65.45

Gold

$3,400.20

Data is provided by

*Stock data as of market close. Here's what these numbers mean.

  • Stocks: Investors were pleased to hear about the trade deal with Japan first thing this morning, and reports of an agreement with the EU coming soon kept the rally alive through market close. The S&P 500 notched its 12th new closing record this year, and the Nasdaq ended the day above 21,000 for the first time.
  • Bonds: Treasury yields rose a bit after an auction of 20-year notes was met with strong demand, indicating investor appetite for longer-term US debt.
  • Commodities: Oil inched higher while gold edged lower as investors hedge their bets in anticipation of more trade deals before the August 1 deadline.
 

TARIFFS

The Japanese flag flying over the Bank of Japan building

Richard A. Brooks/Getty Images

Just like when you turned in your fourth-grade science fair project, the latest trade deal came with some last-minute edits and Sharpie scribbles.

But corrections or not, the US has worked out a comprehensive deal with Japan, the world’s fourth largest economy and the US’s second largest trading partner. President Trump announced via Truth Social that his baseline reciprocal tariff rate for the nation will be set at 15%. Here's what else you should know:

  • Japan will invest $550 billion in the US, with Trump saying the US will "receive 90% of the Profits.”
  • Trump added on Truth Social that Japan will be open to trade, “including Cars and Trucks, Rice and certain other Agricultural Products, and other things.”
  • Auto tariffs on Japan, a flashpoint of the deal and a vital part of Japan’s economy, will also be lowered to 15% from their current level of 25%.

Japan’s top trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, affirmed Trump’s announcement, posting #MissionAccomplished on X.

Driving gains: Japan’s auto industry was certainly psyched about the news, with Toyota jumping 13.64% today, Honda rising 13.08%, Mazda Motor gaining 17.58%, and Mitsubishi Motors climbing 13.03%. Overall, the Nikkei 225 Index surged 3.51% after the news was announced.

Meanwhile, a trade group representing GM, Ford, and Stellantis slammed the deal. They're upset that Japanese automakers can now send their cars to the US with a tariff of just 15%, while manufacturing a car in Mexico or Canada and importing it into the US will cost domestic producers a 25% levy. That said, shares of all three companies rose today on the news as well.

Who’s next?

Today’s deal offers an optimistic glimpse of how the rest of the US’s major trading partners, like Canada and the EU, could work out truces before the August 1 deadline. Deals with Indonesia and the Philippines announced Tuesday also signaled that Trump is finally actually reading The Art of the Deal and putting it to work.

“We have Europe coming in tomorrow, and the next day, we have some other ones coming in,” Trump said in a speech today announcing the Japan deal.

The race is on: Right now, the fight looks tough: The EU is planning on taxing $100 billion of US goods at a rate of 30% if the deal can’t be figured out, while Trump’s tariff on Canada stands at 35%.

Time to get some more Sharpies out.—LB

Presented by Nurp

STOCKS

The biggest winners and losers on the stock market today

🟢 What’s up

  • Krispy Kreme and GoPro got caught up in the new meme stock craze—the donut maker jumped 4.60%, while the wearable camera company leaped 12.41%.
  • Nintendo rose 2.36% after the company’s new Switch 2 console sold 1.6 million units in June, making it the fastest-selling console in US history.
  • GE Vernova gained 14.58% thanks to an impressive beat-and-raise earnings report for the power equipment manufacturer.
  • USANA Health Sciences soared 12.37% after the nutritional supplement maker crushed earnings estimates.
  • Cal-Maine Foods, the biggest egg producer in the country, added 13.80% after profiting from the high cost of eggs over the previous quarter.
  • Lamb Weston sizzled 16.31% higher as shareholders applauded the french fry giant's strong earnings report and new cost-cutting program.

What’s down

  • Texas Instruments tumbled 13.34% after the semiconductor company revealed a disappointing third-quarter earnings forecast.
  • Enphase Energy plunged 14.16% thanks to weak earnings guidance, with the solar company’s management blaming tariffs for squeezing its margins.
  • SAP lost 5.03% after the enterprise software company missed Q2 revenue estimates.
  • Fiserv may have beaten analyst forecasts last quarter, but the fintech still sank 13.85% due to weaker-than-expected financial guidance.
  • Going down: Otis Worldwide dropped 12.38% after the elevator manufacturer lowered its fiscal guidance due to weak demand.

CHART OF THE DAY

By the time you’re reading this newsletter, two of the biggest tech stocks on the market will have released their latest quarterly earnings. Alphabet and Tesla herald the beginning of the Magnificent 7 reporting period, and while earnings are flying fast and thick these days, reports from this handful of stocks can still make or break the market.

To put some numbers on it: Including the Mag 7, the entire S&P 500’s year over year earnings growth this quarter is expected to hit 14.1%, according to FactSet. But if you cut out those seven stocks and just look at anticipated earnings growth for the remaining 493 companies on the index, it plummets to 3.4%.

Comparison of earnings growth between Mag 7 and S&P 493FactSet

FactSet analysts did note, however, that Wall Street expects the Mag 7 to report lower earnings growth over the next 3 quarters, while earnings for the other 493 stocks on the S&P 500 will climb. In fact, by Q1 2026 the gap between the two groups will be much smaller: The Mag 7 are expected to report 11.2% growth, while the S&P 493 should see growth of 10.8%.

But for now at least, the Mag 7 still reigns supreme.

RECAP

Hilton, Hasbro, and AT&T logos

Wolterke, JHVEPhoto/Adobe Stock, UCG/Getty Images

AT&T rose 1.20% after beating Q2 profit estimates and reporting a surge in subscribers: 401,000 customers signed up for the telecom company’s discount bundles combining 5G mobile and high-speed fiber internet plans, well above expectations of 303,000. Ma Bell also highlighted how President Trump's new tax laws stand to save the phone firm $6.5 to $8 billion in taxes through 2027, allowing it to pour $3.5 billion into expanding its fiber network.

  • EPS: $0.54, a hair higher than the anticipated $0.52
  • Revenue: $30.8 billion, better than the $30.49 billion expected

🪄 Hasbro lost 0.94% after its second-quarter earnings report slayed expectations and the toymaker boosted its guidance for the rest of the year. The ace up Hasbro’s sleeve is “Magic: The Gathering,” a collectible card game that’s become an obsession among sorcery fans (including Post Malone and Seth Rogan), amassing $412 million in revenue in Q2, a 23% increase from a year earlier. This goldmine helped offset news of recent layoffs and tariffs on its Chinese imports, although these levies turned out to take a smaller bite than expected, costing a mere $60 million.

  • EPS: $1.30, blasting past the anticipated $0.78
  • Revenue: $980.8 million, better than $882.1 million forecasts

Hilton slid 2.63% after reporting a 0.5% drop in RevPar (revenue per available room) due to occupancy declines amid government cutbacks and dwindling check-ins from US-bound international travelers. Nonetheless, the hotelier managed to eke out second-quarter earnings that surpassed analysts’ expectations, and opened 221 new establishments in Q2, including new luxury lodging in Paris, Vienna, and Northern Ireland.—JD

  • EPS: $2.20, exceeding estimates of $2.03
  • Revenue: $3.14 billion, higher than the $3.1 billion expected

Together With Nurp

NEWS

What's going on in financial markets today

  • The return of the Snack Wrap has been a big success for McDonald’s.
  • Uber has unveiled a new pilot program that gives women riders the ability to request women drivers.
  • The number of victims of the hack on Microsoft servers continues to grow.
  • Goldman Sachs and BNY Mellon will let customers buy tokenized money market funds, whatever that means.
  • The White House revealed its new AI action plan, detailing the administration’s ideas for boosting AI development in the US.
  • Home sales fell in June, while prices rose to a record high for the month—marking the 24th straight month of consecutive increases.
  • The next great technical frontier is on your wrist: Meta Platforms unveiled its newest wearable, while Amazon acquired a company that makes AI bracelets.

CALENDAR

What is happening in the world of finance tomorrow

The economic calendar gets spicy tomorrow, with a look at the labor market via initial jobless claims and the housing market in the form of new home sales. New home sales in particular should make for some interesting reading given today’s news that US home prices hit yet another all-time high, yet some regions are seeing bigger increases to the price tag than others.

As for earnings, we’ve got plenty: Intel, Blackstone, Honeywell, Deckers Outdoor, Southwest Airlines, American Airlines, Union Pacific, Mobileye Global, Digital Realty Trust, and Nokia all drop their latest quarterly figures. Plus, there’s one stock that’s worth watching on the big screen:

Before the open

  • IMAX, like the tickets it sells, has only gotten more expensive over the years. The stock has surged as demand from movie-goers for “Filmed for IMAX” cinematic experiences continues to climb, while management has done a great job of expanding globally while keeping costs contained. But with shares up over 60% in the last 12 months, if tomorrow’s report is anything less than perfect it could spark a selloff. Consensus: $0.17 EPS, $92.19 million in revenue.

RECS

Reading material

Looking for the next meme stock? Here are 20 companies with high short interest and low prices that might rip higher.

One smart money move to guarantee inflation-proof income in retirement.

Trying to dodge taxes? There’s an ETF for that.

Free love and great vibes aren’t enough to keep one of the world’s biggest festivals from running out of money.

The last haven against an internet run by AI is a social media site with an attitude problem.

Investing minus emotion: That’s what Nurp’s SaaS solution helps high-net-worth individuals achieve with algorithmic systems previously reserved for financial institutions. Book a strategy call to see what a data-driven approach can achieve for you.*

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