| | | | | | | | Data is provided by |  | *Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 4:00pm ET. Here's what these numbers mean. | - Iran: The US launched its “most intense” day of strikes against Iran today, according to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. Other messaging was less clear: The Secretary of Energy claimed the US Navy escorted a tanker through the Strait of Hormuz, only for the White House to later walk the statement back.
- Stocks: Indexes kicked the day off with a rally but ended the trading session right around breakeven as traders tried to sort through conflicting signals.
- Everything else: Oil prices continued to fall, while gold climbed as the US dollar sank. Bitcoin was a big winner, breaking back above $70,000 but giving up some gains as the afternoon wore on.
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FUNDS Famed investor and billionaire Bill Ackman is somehow making time from his busy day job (posting on X) to pursue a passion project: Being a hedge fund manager. Today, Ackman filed to take his hedge fund, Pershing Square, public on the New York Stock Exchange, along with a new closed-end investment fund called Pershing Square USA (PSUS). If that name sounds familiar, it’s because Ackman already tried to raise $25 billion to list the closed-end fund back in 2024 and failed spectacularly. The new IPO will utilize a dual listing structure, where Pershing Square’s shares and the closed-end fund will both trade on the NYSE. The companies will be listed together but will trade separately. The listing gives retail investors exposure to Pershing Square’s investment portfolio, which is mainly made up of large-cap firms including Amazon, Brookfield, and Uber, according to CNBC. A closed-end fund sells only a fixed amount of shares in an IPO, and can’t create more shares like a traditional open-end mutual fund. Ackman is pricing the closed-end fund at $50 per share, and looking to raise between $5 billion and $10 billion. The company already has $2.8 billion in gross commitments from family offices, insurance companies, and pension funds. Ackman’s role model Ackman, who started out as a famed activist investor making short bets against firms like Herbalife, has long voiced admiration for Warren Buffett’s empire. For years, he’s been vying to create his own magnum opus à la Berkshire Hathaway. But unlike Buffett, Ackman has also become an opinionated presence on X, where he has about 2 million followers. He regularly offers his take on pretty much every third rail issue, and has supported Elon Musk and President Trump. His social media fame is helping to create demand for the new fund. According to the filing, PSUS will be Pershing’s first fund marketed directly to retail investors as well as institutional investors. Still, we can’t say we’ve ever seen Buffett post a meme.—LB | | |
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STOCKS 🟢 What’s up What’s down - BioNTech fell 17.88% as the company swung to a Q4 loss, forecast 2026 revenue below expectations, and announced that its co-founders are departing this year.
- West Pharmaceutical Services slipped 5.71% after CEO and Chairman Eric Green announced plans to retire in the second half of 2026.
- United Natural Foods dropped 2.91% as fiscal second-quarter revenue missed estimates, overshadowing a profit beat.
- Centene declined 15.97% amid investor concerns over shifting regulations affecting health insurers and managed-care companies.
- Paramount Skydance slid 7.69% after BofA Securities maintained an Underperform rating, warning the Warner Bros. Discovery-Paramount deal could take years to deliver meaningful returns.
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STOCK OF THE DAY Forget what your ex told you as they walked out the door—filling your apartment with Lego sets has never been cooler. The numbers prove it: Earlier today, Lego revealed yet another year of stunning growth in a record run that has helped the company become the world’s biggest toymaker. Its consumer sales climbed 16% last year—more than double the global toy market’s 7% increase—while its total revenue in 2025 rose 12% to about $12.9 billion, or more than double either Hasbro or Mattel. While many toys from your childhood have lost a step over the years, Lego has managed to remain relevant thanks to its sterling supply chain. The Danish toymaker makes a point to build its brick factories within each of its retail markets—Lego sets bought in America are made in Mexico, though the company will open a factory in Virginia in 2027—keeping costs low, reducing shipping times, and letting the company survive hiccups like trade wars and rising oil prices better than most. It also allows Lego to manufacture sets customized for regional markets. Some of the best-selling sets in the US include the new officially licensed F1 racing series, which Lego rolled out last year to coincide with the sport’s rising popularity. The ability to quickly capitalize on trends while securing licenses for popular brands like Fortnite, Star Wars, and others are just another page from Lego’s playbook that has positioned it to continue taking over the world for years to come.—MR |
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INVESTING We’ve all heard about how the ongoing war in Iran is hurting the US economy. With oil prices rising to nearly $120 per barrel over the weekend, economists are calling this the biggest oil disruption in history, with many hinting at chances of stagflation. US stocks slid over the past week, too. Airlines and cruise operators tumbled thanks to soaring fuel prices, while some tech firms faced disruptions tied to data centers in the Middle East. Lee’s bullish case This all sounds pretty grim, but Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat, has a different perspective: He argues that the rise in oil prices actually serves to benefit the US economy. That sounds pretty counterintuitive at first, but his reasoning comes down to a few key points: - Exports: The US is a net exporter of oil, shipping 35% more oil than it imported last year. When prices rise, that boosts revenues for domestic energy producers.
- Competitive advantage: Many economies in Asia and Europe rely heavily on oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, while the US doesn’t. China, for example, gets 37.7% of its oil through the strait, compared with just 2.5% for the US.
- Flow to growth: Oil shocks often push global capital away from cyclical markets and toward growth-heavy markets like the US, where tech dominates the major indexes and corporate earnings are less tied to energy prices and economic cycles.
- The Trump “put”: If energy prices spike too much, political pressure increases. Lee argues the Trump administration can reverse the effects and offer quick resolutions that bring prices back down.
What comes next In fact, we are already seeing signs of Lee’s last point becoming reality: In a press conference yesterday, President Trump said the war will end “very soon”. Oil prices fell yesterday, and sank another 8% this afternoon. But even without his intervention, Lee notes that history often contradicts the instinctive panic around oil spikes. In several past episodes dating back to 1983, stocks actually performed pretty well in the months following price shocks. With that in mind, Lee maintains his view that stocks will end this month higher than where they started. His favorite trades include energy and basic materials, along with industrials, financials, and small-caps. He also remains bullish on the Mag 7, bitcoin, and ethereum, arguing that the market may already be 95% through the current selloff. Lee’s optimism is a ray of light in an otherwise gloomy market environment, but investors should still remain cautious as the geopolitical situation continues to evolve.—SY | | |
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CALENDAR Economic reports: The first of the week’s big inflation readings arrives tomorrow morning with the February CPI report. Economists expect CPI to rise 2.5% year over year (up from 2.4% in January), while core CPI will climb 2.4% YoY (flat from January). With all eyes on the inflationary effects of rising oil prices and how the Fed will act at its next interest rate meeting, expect a sharp market reaction if those numbers come out too far off of forecasts. Earnings announcements: UiPath and Campbell’s |
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RECS The smartest way to invest in oil stocks right now is to focus on free cash flow, and these 15 companies have the money to endure wild swings in crude prices.
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