Today marks the longest government shutdown in US history, surpassing the 35-day stalemate from President Trump’s first term. But while Washington has hit the snooze button, every extra day of inaction is costing the economy billions.

We’ve all heard about the immediate fallout: 42 million Americans are losing access to SNAP benefits, more than 650,000 federal employees have been furloughed or sent home without pay, and air-traffic controllers and TSA agents are bearing the brunt of reduced operations.

But the ripple effects extend far beyond airport gates.

The shutdown has cost the economy roughly $15 billion per week, according to Bloomberg Economics. That’s money not flowing into paychecks, spending, or contracts: an invisible tax on growth that is taking a toll, whether you notice it or not.

This shutdown is hitting harder

It’s not just the length and the cost of this shutdown that could cause more pain than previous government standoffs. The US is more economically fragile than it was seven years ago, weighed down by inflation and waning confidence in the job market.

It doesn’t help that monetary policy is flying blind. With key government agencies like the Bureau of Labor Statistics offline, the Fed has lost access to official data on inflation and employment, its two biggest inputs for setting rates. That means policymakers must rely on private sector estimates instead. And in this environment, the Fed is less focused on inflation (which appears to be cooling) and more on whether the labor market is holding up.

So far, the private data offers a mixed picture. Private companies added 42,000 jobs in October, beating estimates and rebounding from a 29,000 drop in September, driven mostly by large firms. But the recovery remains modest: Hiring is still below the 60,000-job monthly average, and job openings have fallen to their lowest level in more than four years.

Markets are feeling the freeze

About $24 billion in federal spending on goods and services has been frozen in just the first month of the shutdown, according to Bloomberg. There may be even more economic pain ahead: The Congressional Budget Office warns the impasse could shave up to 2 percentage points off fourth-quarter GDP, and if the gridlock stretches past Thanksgiving, about $14 billion could disappear for good.

With official data dark and the economy bleeding billions each week, markets are running on vibes—and it shows. The AI-fueled rally that powered much of this year is starting to lose steam as investors question how long growth and spending can hold up. Leaders at both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley now expect a 10% to 20% market correction over the next year or two.

Investors may want to brace themselves—because if DC doesn’t blink soon, the market just might.—SY

🟢 What’s up

• EV maker Rivian popped 23.36% thanks to a 78% increase in revenue that helped propel sales and profits past Wall Street’s forecasts.
• AMD gained 2.51% after beating analyst expectations, though the chipmaker has some investors worried about its margins.
• Teradata rallied 32.59% thanks to a blowout quarter for the cloud networking company.
• Lumentum makes photonic products like optical amplifiers, aka the stuff that makes data travel faster. Massive data center buildouts helped the company post a beat-and-raise earnings report that pushed shares 23.57% higher.
• Auto service chain Monro popped 15.13% on the news that Carl Icahn has taken a 15% stake in the company

What’s down

• Super Micro Computer dropped 11.52% after the AI server maker missed Wall Street expectations on both the top and bottom lines.
• Toyota fell 2.47% after the car maker reported a $3 billion hit from tariffs, though it did still raise its fiscal guidance.
• Cava dropped 2.55% after the fast casual chain revised its full-year same-store sales outlook lower.
• Cloud services provider Arista Networks lost 8.55% due mostly to sky-high investor expectations.
• Kratos Defense & Security Solutions sank 14.2% even though the drone maker absolutely crushed revenue forecasts.
• Speaking of defense, Taser maker Axon Enterprise plunged 9.43% although it posted record revenue.
• Trex, the company that made your dad’s new deck, plummeted 31.06% after cutting both its fiscal 2025 and 2026 revenue guidance due to low demand.

Going public is never easy. Going public while the government is shut down is even tougher. One company decided to give it a shot anyway—and it’s not going very well.

Navan is a software company focused on corporate travel and expense management that has long held aspirations of an IPO. But with the government shuttered, most companies preparing to go public decided to press pause. Rather than wait around for the shutdown to end (whenever that happens), Navan made the bold decision to hit the market last Thursday using a loophole provided by the SEC.

Basically, Navan could go public even without SEC review 20 days after it set its IPO price range—but it couldn’t change that price. That meant the company was locked into a price of $25 per share (the mid-point of its price range), and couldn’t deviate even if it seemed like investor demand wasn’t as high as expected in the weeks leading up to its IPO.

That turned out to be a problem for Navan: Shares plunged 20% on its first day of trading last Thursday, and have continued to tumble, dropping another 6.3% today. Apparently, the hot IPO pipeline wasn’t hot enough to sustain demand for a company with rising losses. It doesn’t help that once the SEC is back in business, it can re-examine Navan’s filings for discrepancies—a risk investors don't seem excited about.

Maybe patience is a virtue for a reason.—MR

McDonald’s surged 2.16% after reporting that Q3 same-store sales rose 2.4% in the US and 3.6% globally—proof that the fast-food chain is still serving up plenty of Happy Meals in what CEO Chris Kempczinski called a “challenging environment.” He blames the K-shaped economy: Traffic from low-income customers dipped by nearly double digits, but business from higher-income big spenders grew. In an attempt to reel in more cash-strapped consumers, the Golden Arches brought back Extra Value Meals from the pandemic era and the $2.99 Snack Wrap, which landed in one in five orders in its first month and is touted as “the most popular chicken product launch in the US” in recent history. “I think sometimes there’s this idea that value only matters to low-income [consumers],” Kempczinski said. “But value matters to everybody.”

• EPS: $3.22, lower than analyst expectations of $3.33
• Revenue: $7.08 billion, better than forecasts of $7.1 billion

Pinterest plunged 21.76% after the social scrapbooking platform revealed lackluster third-quarter earnings and a dismal holiday season outlook. Although the number of monthly pinners hit a milestone at 600 million—with a growing cohort of men—average revenue per user amounted to a measly $1.78. AI has also proved to be a double-edged sword: Although CEO Bill Ready boasted that he “turned our platform into an AI-powered shopping assistant,” a slew of complaints accuse the site of being overrun with AI slop. Controls have since been added so that visitors can dial down this content in their feeds, but as Ready pointed out, it’s impossible to “catch 100%.”

• EPS: $0.38, lower than estimates of $0.42
• Revenue: $1.05 billion, equal with expectations

Novo Nordisk eked out a 0.44% gain after falling short on estimates for the third straight quarter and trimming its full-year guidance. It’s hard to believe that back in June 2024, the runaway success of its weight-loss drug Wegovy had turned the Danish drugmaker into Europe’s most valuable company. Since then, sales growth has lagged behind Eli Lilly, which just delivered blowout results and boosted its 2025 forecast. In an attempt to turn things around, the biopharma firm laid off 9,000 employees and fired its CEO. The new chief, Mike Doustdar, has failed to impress shareholders so far, although he pointed out during his first trial-by-fire earnings call, “It’s a marathon, not a sprint.”—JD

• EPS: $1.03, higher than the anticipated $0.77
• Revenue: $11.5 billion, falling short of $11.88 billion forecasts

• As reporting season rolls on, Morgan Stanley picked the nine stocks it thinks will see positive earnings surprises.
• Digital asset treasuries, aka public companies that buy and hold crypto, were a great investment—until they weren't.
• The services sector showed stronger growth than expected last month, buoying hopes that the US economy remains strong.
• Warner Bros. Discovery is courting multiple takeover offers, and plans to announce whether it’s making a deal or splitting up by Christmas.
• Can’t find room to build your new multibillion-dollar data center here on Earth? Just do what Google’s doing: Build it in outer space.
• Speaking of Google, the company reached a settlement with Epic to end its long-running feud over its app store.
• Elon Musk’s $1 trillion payday comes down to a Tesla shareholder vote tomorrow.

There’s no economic data to speak of tomorrow, but there’s plenty of speaking engagements for Federal Reserve officials to keep us entertained. We’ll hear from Fed governors Michael Barr and Christopher Wallace, as well as New York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson, and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem.

There’s a wave of earnings hitting markets tomorrow, and we plan to ride it. Keep an eye out for reports from AstraZeneca, D-Wave Quantum, ConocoPhillips, Airbnb, Petrobras, Vistra, Datadog, Warner Bros Discovery, Block, Take-Two Interactive, DuPont de Nemours, Kenvue, Sandisk, Expedia, Affirm, DraftKings, Moderna, Peloton, TripAdvisor, Papa John's, Sweetgreen, Under Armour, and Krispy Kreme.