Good afternoon. Every investor has a bad year now and again—then there’s the year Said Haidar just had. Haidar is the founder of Haidar Capital Management, a hedge fund that makes big bets on macroeconomic trends.
Sometimes those bets work pretty darn well, such as in 2022 when Haidar’s fund pulled in a 193% return.
Sometimes, the other shoe drops. Haidar’s fund fell 32.7% last year, on top of a 43% decline in 2023, taking the fund’s assets under management from a sturdy $5 billion to a mere $818 million over the last two years.
Sometimes, it’s best to just plug your money into an index fund and forget about it.
—Mark Reeth & Lucy Brewster
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IDEOLOGY
Money, religion, and politics: all dinner table no-nos. But what about an investing strategy that combines them all?
A growing number of asset managers are picking investments based on the specific ideological, religious, or even political leanings of their investors—and making a profit to boot.
The biggest faith-based fund manager on the market is Inspire Investing. The firm screens for investments based on an “Inspire Score,” which it calculates “based on their alignment with biblical values and the degree to which they operate as blessings to their customers, communities, workforce and the world,” according to its website. That means screening out companies with any involvement in what it calls “violations,” such as embryonic stem cell research, gambling, tobacco, abortion rights, and IVF.
The firm’s largest fund, the $331 million Inspire 100 ETF (BIBL)—regardless of how you feel about this topic, you must admit that’s an apt ticker—is made up of the 100 largest “biblically aligned” companies in the United States.
Meanwhile, some asset managers are catching the conservative wave that is currently sweeping over corporate America. One expressly political conservative fund is the $87 million God Bless America ETF (YALL)—again, incredible ticker—which is for “god-fearing, flag-waving conservatives,” according to its website. These flag-wavers had a good year: The fund beat the S&P 500 in 2024.
Many faith-based asset managers, such as GuideStone Funds, which has $24 billion in assets under management, are using their stakes in major companies to pressure them to end policies such as covering employee travel costs to get abortions. While these funds don’t hold large enough stakes in massive corporations to pull off a successful activist campaign, they can still mount public pressure to push them in the direction of the fund’s values.
Value investing
Investing based on personal values isn’t a new phenomenon. Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) investing, for example, swept the asset management world in 2021, before losing popularity among retail traders and institutional investors alike.
And Christian-based investing certainly isn’t the only form of faith-focused finance. There are forms of faith-based investing centered on other religions, such as halal investment screening.
A key job of financial advisors is to help clients invest in line with their values regardless of whether they fall into any specific ideology or religion. That could include screening out investments in countries with human rights abuses, or publicly traded companies that collaborated with the Nazis in World War II, for example.
The bottom line: Investing is personal for everyone, whether you’re looking at a company's labor policies or its balance sheet. Ultimately you must choose what’s best for your conscience—and your profits.—LB
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Presented by Grayscale Investments
Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF (“BTC”), an exchange-traded product, is not registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940 (or the ’40 Act) and therefore is not subject to the same regulations and protections as 1940 Act–registered ETFs and mutual funds. Investing involves significant risk, including possible loss of principal. An investment in BTC is subject to a high degree of risk and heightened volatility. Digital assets are not suitable for an investor that cannot afford the loss of the entire investment. An investment in BTC is not an investment in Bitcoin.
Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF, aka the Bitcoin Mini (fund ticker: BTC), is the most cost-effective way to gain exposure to Bitcoin directly through your existing brokerage or retirement account (it has the lowest fee* of all spot Bitcoin funds in the market). Invest the same way you would invest in any other stock or ETF (though brokerage fees may still apply). That’s right—you don’t need a separate crypto wallet or an account on a crypto exchange!
Simply search “BTC” on your preferred trading platform, or click here to learn more.
Grayscale is a crypto-focused asset manager and has been offering exposure to crypto through investment products for over a decade.
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THOUGHT OF THE DAY
Investors sometimes forget that the stock market isn’t the economy—which is understandable, considering that when the economy experiences a recession it tends to drag the market down with it. But not always.
In a note yesterday, Deutsche Bank Macro Strategist Henry Allen pointed out something we’ve been pounding the table on lately: Market valuations are sky-high. But with the US economy looking strong, it doesn’t seem like there’s much reason for investors to worry about a market downturn.
Yet downturns do occur without a recession, albeit rarely—only eight times since the 1960s, in fact. Usually, there’s two factors involved in these sell-offs: The Fed is hiking interest rates, and slower economic growth raises fears of an oncoming recession that becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
“So if growth remains strong and the Fed doesn't start hiking rates again, it’s not implausible that elevated valuations continue for some time,” Allen concluded. “But history demonstrates that if signs of a slowdown do emerge or rate hikes move back on the table, then it's possible for equities to experience a notable decline, even without a recession.”
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AI
If you feel unsettled by the image of your cat driving a Cybertruck that your 12-year-old nephew created with Midjourney, just think about how freaked out decades-old corporations are by all the nascent tech out there.
That’s probably why some legacy companies are teaming up to weather the AI revolution storm. Just this week, Getty Images announced it was merging with former rival Shutterstock to create a new $3.7 billion stock-image behemoth to cut costs and beat out competitors—such as Midjourney itself.
Investors seem to think the two photo giants will make a picture-perfect couple: Shutterstock is up TK% since the news, while Getty has risen TK% since the deal was announced.
Every company is an AI company now
Shutterstock and Getty aren’t the only companies looking for ways to prevent themselves from becoming obsolete as more and more industries implement AI technology.
Encyclopaedia Britannica, that giant information bible your third-grade English teacher plopped onto your desk, is seeking a whopping $1 billion in an IPO planned for this summer. The 250-year old-publisher has shifted away from print over recent years, and toward AI-learning tools, specifically with its subsidiaries Melingo AI and Britannica Education.
But just because a company can embrace AI, should it? Industries like healthcare, cybersecurity, and financial services have more obvious uses for automation upgrades. But even sectors like manufacturing are leveraging machine learning to cut costs and streamline logistics.
Experts emphasize that we’re still in the early innings of AI adoption, and that there might be use cases that surprise us, as well as some hyped-up applications that don’t end up panning out. Only time will tell which is which.—LB
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Together with Grayscale Investments
Crypto-curious? If you’re looking to add crypto exposure to your portfolio, look for Grayscale. Grayscale has billions in assets under management and has been managing crypto investments for over a decade, so they have the experience to help you get started. Think crypto, invest Grayscale. |
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CALENDAR
This week wraps up with a bang: the US jobs report tomorrow morning. If you’ll recall, this is the same monthly, all-encompasing labor market breakdown that surprised investors to the downside so badly last August that the entire stock market temporarily tanked. Economists are hoping that December’s numbers don’t surprise to the downside once again—although with the likelihood of more rate cuts in 2025 continuing to dwindle, maybe some bad news would actually be good news for investors.
Finally, we’ve actually got a few earnings announcements worth watching as the first numbers of the new season begin to trickle in.
Before the open
Delta Air Lines’ announcement tomorrow should benefit from a comparison to its previous earnings report, in which the massive CrowdStrike outage took a toll on the company’s bottom line. With that out of the way, a quarter-over-quarter improvement is almost guaranteed. But there are still plenty of question marks management will have to be ready for: volatile fuel costs, inclement weather and subsequent cancellations, and the impact of sticky inflation on revenue. Consensus: $1.74 EPS, $14.64 billion in revenue.
Constellation Brands, like all alcoholic beverage companies, has a problem: Americans aren’t drinking beer the way they once did. Attempts to pivot to canned cocktails and THC-infused beverages have fizzled, and now the company has another problem: tariffs. Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs could take a serious toll on a company that produces brands like Corona, Modelo, and more in Mexico. Shareholders will want to hear a gameplan for how the beer and booze company plans to endure all these headwinds. Consensus: $3.32 EPS, $2.54 billion in revenue.
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✢ A Note From Grayscale Investments
*Low fee based on gross expense ratio at .15%.
Please read the prospectus carefully before investing in the Fund. Foreside Fund Services, LLC is the Marketing Agent for the Fund.
The Fund holds Bitcoin; however, an investment in the Fund is not a direct investment in Bitcoin. As a non-diversified and single industry fund, the value of the shares may fluctuate more than shares invested in a broader range of industries. Extreme volatility, regulatory changes, and exposure to digital asset exchanges may impact the value of Bitcoin and, consequently, the value of the Fund. The value of the Fund relates directly to the value of the underlying digital asset, the value of which may be highly volatile and subject to fluctuations due to a number of factors.
✳︎ A Note From Grayscale Investments
Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal.
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