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- Don’t worry folks: After a technical snafu that definitely wasn’t our fault, the daily markets section is back in business. The S&P 500 rose to a new record high to welcome us back.
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Minutes from the recent Federal Reserve meeting show that central bankers are leaning toward pausing rate cuts.
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Gold and oil traders held their breath (and held prices steady) as meetings between the US and Russia about ending the war in Ukraine commenced.
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TRADE WAR
We promise we’re not just talking about tariffs again because we’ve run out of other ideas.
President Trump dropped another T-bomb yesterday, telling reporters that he plans to broaden tariffs on a whole new range of imports, including automobiles, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals.
Trump warned that the levies, which he said could be implemented as soon as April 2, could start at 25% but could go “substantially higher over the course of a year.”
Markets sank in reaction, given that the threat of an all-out trade war seems likelier every day.
Trump’s ongoing tariff bonanza has roiled markets and caused business leaders to hit back hard with strongly worded-yet-vague statements of disapproval. A quick reminder: Trump previously threatened to slap Canada, Mexico, and Colombia with steep tariffs before reversing course. A 10% tariff on some Chinese goods was implemented earlier this month, and an additional 25% tariff on steel and aluminum were announced last week and are expected to be implemented in March.
Trump also promised last week that he would hit countries with retaliatory tariffs for any levies they put on US exports.
An uphill road
If and when this new series of tariffs goes into effect, analysts expect that the auto industry will be hit particularly hard given that the it relies heavily on foreign exports. The 8 million vehicles imported last year made up roughly half of all US vehicle sales, according to Bloomberg.
Auto stocks immediately reacted to the news. European auto conglomerate Stellantis, which imports about 45% of the cars it sells into the US, declined 2.15%. General Motors manufactures vehicle parts in Mexico and Canada, which means that roughly 45% of its sales in the US are imports. Shares fell 0.69%.
Volkswagen could be hit particularly hard, considering 80% of the company’s sales come from cars sold in the US. Shares dropped 3.23% today.
On the other hand, Ford could fare far better than its competitors, since it only imports about 20% of its cars, while Tesla produces its EVs domestically. Tesla rose 1.82% today, while Ford climbed 0.48%.
Mexico, Japan, and Canada are the nations with the biggest auto exports, although Trump did not specify whether the latest tariffs would apply to all countries across the board. And while autos were in the spotlight today, Malaysia and Singapore are major chipmaker markets that export heavily to the US and could feel some serious pain.
But as you already know if you’ve been following the trade war thus far, a lot of Trump’s proposals have turned out to be more like bargaining chips than actual policy. Only time will tell if today’s latest tariff-induced market moves will actually reflect new economic policy.—LB
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STOCKS
🟢 What’s up
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Quantum computing stocks are so back: Microsoft released its first-ever quantum computing chip, lending credence to the idea that quantum computing is going to be a big deal. BTQ Technologies soared 34.54%, D-Wave Quantum climbed 8.28%, and Rigetti Computing popped 4.85%.
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Hims & Hers Health surged 17.50% thanks to its acquisition of at-home lab testing company Trybe Labs.
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SolarEdge Technologies missed on earnings, but its revenue growth was so strong that shareholders forgave it and pushed the solar tech company 15.95% higher.
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Don’t call it a comeback: Server maker Super Micro Computer rose yet another 7.97% to become the best-performing stock of 2025.
What’s down
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Etsy stumbled 10.05% after it beat earnings expectations but missed on revenue last quarter.
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Wingstop shareholders want to stop the bleeding: Higher wing prices led to lower earnings last quarter. Shares sank 13.40%.
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Nikola plunged 39.13% after the EV maker announced it is filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.
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Toll Brothers sank 5.79% after the homebuilder missed on top and bottom line forecasts last quarter, and shareholders are worried that more pain lies ahead.
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Bumble tumbled 30.31% due to lower-than-expected earnings guidance for the coming quarters that left investors swiping left on the dating app.
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Palantir Technologies dropped 10.08% on reports that the White House has ordered the Pentagon to prepare for sweeping budget cuts.
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TURNAROUND OF THE DAY
Way back in 2022, Elon Musk put together $44 billion to help him buy a social media site known as Twitter. In the years since, the departure of users and advertisers alike from the platform now known as X made it seem like that was a bad investment. Reports from major investor Fidelity show the value of X seemingly plummeted 80% to just $4.2 million as of October 2024.
But that all changed with Donald Trump’s election. Trump’s presidency has coincided with Musk’s ascendance, and with Musk’s rise has come a resurgence in the value of X. Now, Musk is attempting to raise money from investors for X in order to help pay down the site’s debt, according to a report from Bloomberg. So, what is X valued at these days?
$44 billion. That’s right—X may once again be worth the full price Musk paid two years ago. A new payment platform, new AI initiatives, and of course, a close relationship with the President of the United States could be enough to pull off one of the most stunning reversals of fortune in recent investment history.
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ACKMAN
If imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, Warren Buffett should be pretty pleased right now.
Activist investor and prolific X poster Bill Ackman announced (via a lengthy post on X, of course) that he is planning to create his own holding company, mimicking Buffett’s legendary transformation of Berkshire Hathaway from beleaguered textile manufacturer to an over-$1 trillion sprawling conglomerate.
Ackman’s target? Texas-based real estate firm Howard Hughes Holdings. Ackman’s firm, Pershing Square, already owns 37.6% of the company, but has submitted a proposal to buy 10 million Howard Hughes shares at $90 per share. That’s up from a previous offer of $85 per share, and would mean Pershing Square will then own 48% of the real estate developer and essentially have control over the business.
If Pershing’s proposal goes through, Ackman would become chairman and CEO of Howard Hughes. The plan would include a very generous fee structure that could pay Pershing up to $72 million per year, Barron’s reported.
Howard Hughes dropped 8.79% today.
Ackman’s antics
Ackman, who became famous for waging a brutal activist war against Herbalife beginning in 2012, doesn’t exactly emulate Buffett’s understated, reserved style.
The Pershing Square CEO has made headlines for sharing his thoughts on pretty much every controversial issue you can think of, and endorsed President Trump in the 2024 election.
“When I entered the investment business at 26 and started a small hedge fund with $3 million under management, I thought that perhaps some day I could build a diversified holding company like Berkshire with an extraordinary long-term record,” Ackman explained via X.
Despite Ackman’s bid, it is unclear right now if the Howard Hughes board and special committee overseeing the proposal is supportive of Ackman’s latest passion project.
“We don’t see how HHH’s independent board could sign off on this transaction, especially as HHH doesn’t need the $900m proposed capital infusion,” explained Piper Sandler analyst Alex Goldarb in a note.
But if there’s one thing Ackman has shown us through long-winded X post after X post, it's that he’s persistent.—LB
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NEWS
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These 15 stocks have created the most value for shareholders over the past decade. Nvidia leads the bunch, of course.
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Gasoline prices are expected to climb in the coming weeks as refinery outages on the West Coast hurt supply.
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Forever 21 is going out of business, upsetting the 30-somethings who shop there.
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Ava Cado would like to hire you: Chipotle is using an AI program to employ 20,000 seasonal workers for “burrito season.”
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Fidelity makes more money than BlackRock but gets a fraction of the attention.
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The biggest pay bump on Wall Street belongs to Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser. She made $34.5 million in 2024—here’s how that stacks up to the other CEOs of Wall Street’s biggest banks.
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CALENDAR
Tomorrow’s a pretty quiet day as far as economic data goes. We’ll get the usual weekly initial jobless claims report, a breakdown of how many Americans filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. Last week’s 213,000 claims marked a decrease of 7,000 from the week prior, a good sign for the labor market but a bad sign for anyone hoping the Fed cuts interest rates.
We’ll also get a look at US leading economic indicators. This is a basket of various tidbits of data, like employment, GDP, manufacturing activity, and more. It’s a handy tool for economists who are trying to find signals in all the noise, and for investors who want hints of how the economy is doing, but it shouldn’t move markets.
As for earnings, we’ve got a hefty batch of numbers ready to drop from Dropbox, Rivian Automotive, Mercado Libre, Wayfair, Unity Software, Bilibili, Cheniere Energy, TripAdvisor, Hasbro, Texas Roadhouse, and Birkenstock. Here are two other big names in the world of retail that you should be watching:
Before the open
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Walmart was just beaten at its own game by Amazon, which beat the brick and mortar retail giant in quarterly revenue for the first time ever. Management will be hoping to stage a comeback tomorrow morning, and chances seem good that Walmart will once again be top dog: Automation initiatives are improving margins, consumers have turned to the retailer in droves to save a buck, and ironically enough, its e-commerce segment has been growing rapidly. Consensus: $0.64 EPS, $178.68 billion in revenue.
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Alibaba is the dominant retailer on the other side of the globe, and should keep the crown this quarter. A slowdown in the Chinese economy has hurt Alibaba’s top and bottom lines, but the e-commerce company is still on the right track, and shareholders are extremely enthusiastic over new AI initiatives—particularly a lucrative partnership with Apple. Yesterday’s pronouncement of support from Chinese President Xi Jinping should help shore up shareholder morale, though questions still remain over the effects of US tariffs. Consensus: $3.03 EPS, $38.82 billion in revenue.
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