DraftKings just acquired predictions platform Railbird Technologies, scoring a CFTC license that paves the way to launch DraftKings Predictions. On this peer-to-peer platform, users can bypass their bookie and place bets with each other on everything from Nvidia’s stock price to who slaps who at the Oscars.

The sports-betting powerhouse has been getting punished by investors lately for letting upstart prediction platforms muscle in on its turf. For example, Kalshi recently began allowing its users to place bets on NFL games using uber-profitable parlay wagers, which helped the company score record-high trade volume earlier this month. So, DraftKings decided to take a page out of the competition’s book and try its hand at prediction markets.

DraftKings’ wager has already paid off: Shares jumped 3.21% today. Investors are especially excited about the prospect of DraftKings offering sports bets in major markets like Texas and California, where sports betting is illegal. Prediction markets are regulated by the CFTC, and therefore outside the jurisdiction of state regulators, and may present a loophole that DraftKings takes advantage of.

Crowded competition

Both Kalshi and Polymarket have only grown more popular in the months since the presidential election shone a spotlight on the entire prediction market. In fact, trading volume on both platforms just climbed above $2 billion for the first time ever last week, according to Bloomberg—beating the high-water mark they reached last November.

That’s why it’s unsurprising to see that they aren’t just sitting this one out: Today, Kalshi and Polymarket just landed their first Big 4 sports deal with the National Hockey League.

Terms like “Super Bowl” are off-limits on these platforms, which must get creative with phrases like “Pro Football Championship.” The new licensing agreement allows the prediction market players to use trademarked terms like “NHL” and “Stanley Cup,” and puts it on a more level playing field with DraftKings, which already has deals in place with the NHL, NFL, and a wide swath of leagues.

And the winner is…everyone?

“This feels less like a zero-sum cage match and more like the rise of a new sports-fintech multiverse,” said Running Point CIO Michael Ashley Schulman. “DraftKings brings scale, licensing muscle, and brand recognition. Kalshi brings regulatory chops, financial sophistication, and a Silicon Valley-style playbook. If regulation plays ball, both could score.”—JD

🟢 What’s up

• The recent retail trading frenzy pulled former meme stock favorites Krispy Kreme and GoPro 8.63% and 5% higher, respectively. But Beyond Meat finally gave up some gains and fell 1.1% today.
• Intuitive Surgical jumped 13.89% after the surgical robots maker crushed Wall Street estimates last quarter.
• Winnebago Industries soared 28.16% due to a blowout earnings report for the mobile home manufacturer.
• Western Alliance beat analyst expectations last quarter, pushing shares higher by 3.24% as the regional bank shrugged off First Brands & Tricolor bankruptcy concerns.
• Hilton Worldwide rallied 3.42% after the hotel giant posted solid earnings despite lower occupancy rates.

What’s down

• Netflix tumbled 10.07% after a tax dispute in Brazil derailed what was otherwise one of its strongest quarters ever.
• Texas Instruments lost 5.6% after the semiconductor company posted mixed earnings and issued disappointing fourth-quarter financial guidance.
• Mattel fell 2.76% thanks to lower North American sales than expected last quarter—though its new K-Pop Demon Hunters deal might help next quarter.
• Oklo plunged 13.86% thanks to a Financial Times story detailing the nuclear power startup’s complete lack of revenue, licenses, and customer contracts.
• Although AT&T added 405,000 postpaid net phone subscribers last quarter, far more than the 362,000 analysts expected, shares fell 1.92% when that didn’t translate to stronger earnings.

So far, so good.

At least, that seems to be Wall Street’s mantra as this earnings season progresses. In a note published late Tuesday evening, JPMorgan’s Head of Global Markets Strategy Dubravko Lakos-Bujas reported that 87% of companies that have reported thus far beat earnings estimates (compared to an average of 73% over the last four quarters) and 77% beat revenue estimates (compared to an average of 64%).

That’s pretty darn good—but considering that only 11% of the S&P 500 has reported earnings thus far, it’s still early innings. Then again, the fact that big banks reported such spectacular quarters, combined with strong results from bellwether companies like GM, 3M, and Coca-Cola, indicates that companies have successfully endured last quarter’s perfect storm of tariffs and consumer uncertainty.

It ain’t over yet: Earnings season really kicked off this week, but it’s going to hit high gear next week. 179 companies report earnings on Wednesday, followed by 192 on Thursday, the two busiest days of the reporting season. We’ll also hear from Meta Platforms, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, and Alphabet next week as well—five members of the Mag 7 whose collective market cap of $14.84 trillion account for about a quarter of the S&P 500’s total market cap.—MR

We all know natural disasters such as floods, wildfires, and hurricanes are increasingly common—but what you might not realize is how much they’re hurting the economy.

Just in the first half of 2025 alone, the US saw more than $101 billion in losses from fires and storms, according to Bloomberg—a new record. A huge swath of this damage is from the brutal wildfires in Los Angeles earlier this year, which cumulatively generated roughly $40 billion in losses.

The culprit behind all of this is, of course, climate change, which is making these weather events not only more frequent, but more severe. And the devastating losses couldn’t come at a worse time: There are fewer funds than ever to help resuscitate. Just look at the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s Disaster Relief Fund, which was on the precipice of running out of money last month before a series of court battles kept it afloat.

The big business of disaster recovery

While disasters take an enormous toll on the economy, recovering from them has become an increasingly lucrative enterprise.

The US spent an average of $80 billion per year on disaster recovery in the 1990s. In the year ending in June, the country shelled out roughly $1 trillion.

In fact, over 36% of all GDP growth since 2000, or about $7.7 trillion, is due to spending related to cleaning up after a natural disaster or preparing for the next one, according to Bloomberg Intelligence data.

Most of this spending goes to insurance companies, hardware stores, storage facilities, power grid equipment manufacturers, and self-storage facilities. These aren’t businesses that are necessarily marketing themselves as climate change solutions, but have functional use for preparing for and recovering from natural disasters.

One investing takeaway: Bloomberg has put together 100 public companies related to disaster relief in its new Prepare and Repair Index, which has outperformed the S&P 500 by 6.5% per year over the past decade. And as storms only continue to get worse in the years ahead, the companies that help with the recovery will continue to profit.—LB

• The average cost of a family health insurance plan has risen for a third year in a row to $27,000.
• The Federal Reserve may dramatically reduce bank capital requirements from Biden-era proposals, a big win for Wall Street.
• Meta Platforms will lay off 600 people in its AI business unit.
• Tesla is recalling 13,000 Model Y SUVs and Model 3 sedans due to sudden power loss.
• Warner Bros. Discovery has rejected not one, not two, but three takeover offers from Paramount.
• Alphabet announced a quantum computing breakthrough with its Willow chip that ran an algorithm 13,000 times faster than the world’s most powerful supercomputer.
• The holiday season is the most wonderful time of year for stock market losers.
• Just because you got a presidential pardon doesn’t mean your bank will do business with you.

The US government shutdown has now become the second-longest shutdown on record, and with no signs of stopping anytime soon, we’ll probably be skipping Thursday’s usual initial jobless claims reading. But, we should still be getting a glimpse of existing home sales from the National Association of Realtors, which is nice.

Hey, at least we still get plenty of earnings to look forward to! Keep an eye out for the latest facts and figures from T-Mobile US, Blackstone, Intel, Union Pacific, American Airlines, Honeywell, Newmont, Freeport-McMoRan, Digital Realty Trust, Ford, Baker Hughes, Dassault, PG&E, Nokia, Dow, TransUnion, and Deckers Outdoor.