Before Jerome Powell became a household name and the Federal Reserve’s every move was watched with the intensity of a Wimbledon final, politics and investing didn’t cross over into each other’s territory quite so often.

But two days after the attempt on former President Donald Trump’s life, the Venn diagram between Capitol Hill and Wall Street has almost completely overlapped. Investors everywhere are still assessing the fallout from the failed assassination, but the instant reaction today has seen the prices of several specific assets surge.

Stocks, crypto soar on assassination attempt

The obvious beneficiary has been Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT), whose shares rose 31.37% today.

Shares of the parent company of Truth Social, the Trump-focused social network, sank shortly after the IPO in late March, dropping from about $70 to a low of about $13 in late June. But the stock has enjoyed a recovery lately, seemingly due to the stumbles of President Joe Biden during recent debates and press conferences.

In short, the better Trump’s chances of becoming president, the better this stock performs—and today’s news of Trump’s classified documents case being dismissed by a Florida judge has only added to the recent pop.

Tesla (TSLA) shares have had their own bumpy road to contend with this year, with lower EV sales dragging the company down before a surprisingly positive deliveries announcement two weeks ago helped the stock recover. Shares ended the day up 1.78% after Elon Musk took to X to endorse Donald Trump for president on Saturday evening, in what may be a calculated move as Musk looks to protect Tesla from the Chinese tariffs and cuts for EV credits that will almost certainly follow a Trump election victory.

Finally, both bitcoin and ethereum popped today after weeks of losses spurred by a sudden surge in supply from both Mt. Gox and the German government. Trump has positioned himself as a pro-crypto candidate, and is scheduled to speak at the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville later this month. A Trump presidency would likely create a friendlier regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies, and as his chances of being elected rise, so, too, do crypto prices.

Invest for the long term, not for the news

With the Republican National Convention kicking off in Milwaukee today, it’s unlikely that you’ll see any other stories on your TV over the next few days. But make no mistake: The spotlight shining on the stocks above in the near-term doesn’t mean that they will automatically become long-term winners.

Today’s bounce is reactionary, and not due to the improvement of any underlying fundamentals. While the assassination attempt has raised the betting odds of Donald Trump becoming elected president, and there’s certainly merit to preparing your portfolio for such an eventuality, investors should be focused on a stock’s inherent qualities and not how often they see a name on television.—MR

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Central banks around the globe have beaten the US to the punch, seemingly more willing to cut interest rates than their Federal Reserve counterparts have been. But that may be changing: After the latest CPI reading, the market is pricing in a roughly 93% chance of cuts coming in September.

In comments today at the Economic Club of Washington, DC, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell was a bit more circumspect, though even he couldn’t resist striking an optimistic note. “In the first quarter, we didn’t make any more progress. The second quarter, actually, we did make some more progress. We’ve now had three better readings—and if you average them—that’s a pretty good pace,” he said.

🟢 What’s up

• Bitcoin-related stocks rose alongside the crypto rally today, with Coinbase up 11.39% and Microstrategy climbing 15.36%.
• Gun manufacturers always rise after a major shooting incident, and the assassination attempt on Donald Trump certainly meets that criteria. Sturm, Ruger & Company jumped 5.44%, and Smith & Wesson rose 11.38%.
• Stelco Holdings rocketed 73.98% higher on the news that the Canadian steelmaker will be acquired by Cleveland Cliffs for $2.8 billion.
• AutoNation popped 2.01% on the news that it’s cutting $1.50 off of its EPS for the latest quarter due to the CDK cyberattack. Apparently getting ahead of the bad news is actually good news?

What’s down

• Macy’s sank 11.76% after the department store’s board voted to end acquisition negotiations with activist investors Arkhouse and Brigade.
• Burberry fell 16.08% after a poor quarterly report, a profit warning, and the ousting of its CEO.
• AES plummeted 10.01% thanks to a storm cutting power to thousands of the utility company’s customers throughout Ohio.
• SolarEdge Technologies dropped 15.36% after the company announced it will lay off 400 employees to improve profitability. Shares of solar competitors slumped in sympathy: First Solar fell 8.50%, Sunrun sank 8.95%, and Sunnova Energy fell 9.96%.

Spot ethereum ETFs, which are backed by actual ethereum instead of futures contracts, could hit the market any day now after they were approved last month in a surprising decision from the SEC.

The SEC’s approval of the rule change that allows spot ethereum exchange-traded funds to trade on exchanges followed the watershed approval of ten spot bitcoin ETFs in mid-January. Multiple asset managers, including the Winklevoss twins, had been trying to get spot bitcoin ETFs through regulatory hurdles for a decade before the SEC finally gave them the green light.

The spot bitcoin ETFs that launched in January, which include funds from legacy Wall Street firms like BlackRock and Fidelity, in addition to crypto specialist investment firms like Grayscale, have gathered nearly $60 billion in assets so far, becoming the most lucrative ETF launch of all time. The largest ETF, the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) has about $18 billion in assets under management.

Many of the same firms that offer spot bitcoin ETFs, including BlackRock, Grayscale, Bitwise, and Invesco, are also hoping to launch ethereum funds. While the SEC approved the 19b-4 rule change, a major approval milestone, the regulator still needs to approve each fund’s individual prospectus so they can actually start trading.

How popular will these funds actually be?

The lucrative launch of the spot bitcoin ETFs was enough to vindicate bulls that had been arguing these products would be popular, safer alternatives to crypto exchanges. But ethereum, as the second-largest cryptocurrency, likely won’t garner quite as much money for its ETFs as its more-renowned older brother did.

“Bitcoin is the big dog in the room,” said Ryan Rasmussen, senior crypto research analyst at Bitwise Asset Management, in an interview with Brew Markets. “A lot of the institutional investors are still getting up to speed with crypto and they're learning about bitcoin, so now to introduce ethereum, it can be difficult to get their attention and ultimately get them on board with investing.”

But Rasmussen argued that while there are educational hurdles, he believes there will be more demand for ethereum because of its use case as a technology platform. “I don't think it will surpass Bitcoin, but I think it will surpass expectations,” he said.

Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale Investments, seconded the notion that ethereum’s unique tech utility could give the asset an edge. “Bitcoin is like gold, but ethereum is more of a technology asset, and can be held alongside other frontier technologies like artificial intelligence or biotechnology,” he said.

Bitwise’s research team predicts $15 billion of inflows over nine months for an ethereum ETF, while Grayscale’s research team sees demand for ethereum ETFs totaling roughly 25% to 35% of the demand for bitcoin ETFs.—LB

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Economic data takes a back seat to earnings season this week with a bunch of major stocks announcing their quarterly numbers. One report to keep an eye on tomorrow: US Retail Sales, which will provide some insight into the strength of the American consumer and whether or not spending has stayed steady in the face of slowing inflation.

Before the open

• UnitedHealth Group shares hiccuped in May after its CEO warned the company will see lower payment premiums from Medicaid in the coming quarters. Analysts will be eager to learn more about what he meant, and how exactly it will affect the health insurance giant’s business going forward. Consensus: $6.71 EPS, $98.83 billion in revenue.
• Bank of America is the next major financial company to report earnings this week, and all eyes will be on the bank’s net interest income (NII). Poor NII tanked big bank stocks late last week, and BofA’s NII sagged year over year last quarter, though analysts seem confident the bank’s balance sheet will be up to snuff. Consensus: $0.81 EPS, $25.29 billion in revenue.

After the close

• J.B. Hunt is a major transportation provider whose name may not be familiar but whose business affects many aspects of the economy—and vice versa, which may be a bad thing considering how poor recent economic reports have been. Shares are down over 12% year to date, and tomorrow will either arrest the decline or greatly accelerate the selloff. Consensus: $1.52 EPS, $3.06 billion in revenue.
• Interactive Brokers has directly benefited from the surge in retail investing, and wants to continue to capitalize on it with initiatives like its new predictions market. Daily trading volume has accelerated this year, and analysts think the brokerage can continue to rise, with the average price target on Wall Street 14% higher than shares trade for today. Consensus: $1.65 EPS, $1.21 billion in revenue.