The Pentagon’s AI drama continues to unfold at home, even as the conflict in Iran rages on the other side of the world.

Palantir CEO Alex Karp revealed today that the defense company is still using Anthropic’s Claude in its operations tied to the Iran war, even after the model was blacklisted by the Pentagon last month.

Untangling technology that is deeply embedded in the defense system is easier said than done. For now, the administration has set a six-month timeline for federal agencies to transition away from the company’s products, according to a Truth Social post from President Trump.

Defense stocks to watch

Like Palantir, other defense companies are coming under the spotlight as the war in Iran escalates. Just yesterday, an Iran-linked group hacked into Michigan-based medical technology company Stryker, and similar cyberattacks may follow.

With the rise of cyber warfare and AI-driven defense systems, modern conflicts are creating new demand for both military software and hardware. While much attention is on defense tech platforms like Palantir, several traditional defense players may also stand to benefit.

After meeting with defense executives last Friday, Trump said the US aims to quadruple production of “Exquisite Class” weaponry, industry jargon for highly advanced, one-of-a-kind military systems. That’s good news for defense manufacturers such as Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, L3Harris Technologies, Karman Space & Defense, Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, and Ducommun, all of which could benefit as the US restocks its missile supplies.

With much of the fighting occurring in the air, companies developing drones and counter-drone systems may see heightened demand. Oppenheimer highlights Ondas Holdings as a top pick, with BlackSky Technology and Iridium Communications as secondary plays.

And given this week’s attack on Stryker, cybersecurity is sure to play a bigger role as the conflict continues. Some companies that could benefit include Cloudfare, Rapid7, A10 Networks, Palo Alto Networks, CrowdStrike, and Zscaler.

What’s next?

It’s still early days, but US military spending is already ramping up: the first six days of operations cost the US over $11.3 billion, according to the New York Times—a figure that is likely understated, as it excludes expenses like operating ships and maintaining personnel.

More spending could soon follow. The White House is expected to request about $50 billion in additional war funding from Congress, potentially boosting orders for military hardware.

An escalating conflict isn’t good news, and the cost of human life continues to rise. But for defense companies, it means bigger budgets, more orders, and increased production—a trend investors should be watching closely.—SY

🟢 What’s up

• Bumble jumped 34.15% after quarterly revenue beat expectations and the company pointed to early signs of stabilization in its user base.
• Firefly Aerospace gained 12.77% following its successful launch of Alpha Flight 7.
• Oil stocks rallied as crude prices climbed: Occidental Petroleum rose 5.09%, Chevron gained 2.7%, and Exxon Mobil added 1.29%.
• Eightco Holdings climbed 11.67% after Dan Ives stepped down as board chairman of the digital asset treasury company.
• Petco Health and Wellness surged 34.58% as guidance indicated flat to 1.5% revenue growth this year, beating expectations for a decline.

What’s down

• Morgan Stanley slipped 4.05% as its private-credit fund capped withdrawals at 5% following redemption requests for 10.9% of shares.
• Deutsche Bank fell 6.63% after it revealed $30 billion in private-credit exposure for 2025, among the largest disclosed by major banks.
• Private credit problems at Morgan Stanley and Deutsche bank precipitated a selloff across the industry. Blackstone lost 4.79%, Apollo Global Management fell 5.47%, and Blue Owl Capital sank 4.55%.
• Lucid Group dropped 7.87% as the EV maker unveiled a two-seater robotaxi concept and new self-driving subscription plans at its investor day.
• Dollar General slid 6.14% as its outlook pointed to slower sales growth amid winter storms and uncertain consumer demand.
• Netskope plunged 21.27% on weak guidance and a larger projected full-year loss than analysts expected.
• Eli Lilly fell 2.26% as the company warned of potential health risks tied to an impurity in compounded versions of its weight-loss drug, dragging down Hims & Hers Health by 7.88%.

Thai Randolph is an investor, serial entrepreneur, producer, and board director who has built her career at the intersection of content, commerce, and consumers. Most recently, Thai served as cofounder, board member, and CEO of Hartbeat. She is set to speak at Brew Markets’ upcoming event, Eyes on Her: Women, Wealth and What’s Next, on March 18th about the future of culture and capital. Ahead of the event, we caught up with her to hear about her investing playbook and how she’s recalibrating in 2026.

2026 is already rewriting the investing playbook. What’s one opportunity investors should be leaning into right now that still feels underpriced, misunderstood, or underdiscussed?

One area that I think is still underpriced and misunderstood is stranded brand equity. Large companies are concentrating capital around fewer priorities. Emerging brands are getting squeezed by rising CAC and crowded distribution. From the outside, it looks like a contraction. But often, it's really a misalignment between asset and owner, product and platform, brand and balance sheet.

There are valuable brands sitting in the wrong structures: some live inside large corporations where they simply don’t matter enough while others are independent, but lack the structural support to scale. Real communities. Real cultural relevance. Real commercial potential. What they lack is the right operator and the right capital structure. That's the space I'm very active in right now.

We talk a lot about diversification. What does “smart diversification” actually look like in this market cycle and where do you see women taking a more strategic edge?

Smart diversification isn’t just about financial bets. It’s about capital allocation in its fullest form: financial, relational, and personal. For a long time, I concentrated all of it in a single pursuit. Whatever I was building got 1000% of me. That discipline built my career, but it also narrowed it.

Then I woke up one day and realized my foundation was uneven: deep in execution, thin in the institutional backing and diversified networks that open the next set of doors. Focus matters, but so does space. Space for relationships beyond your immediate lane. Space to be visible beyond your current role. Space to take smart bets, especially on yourself.

Ultimately, smart diversification means ensuring you hold the largest position in your own future.

Continue reading here.

There’s been plenty of ink spilled about how the Iran war has triggered an oil crisis that could reignite inflation and spike prices at the pump. But there’s another, under the radar commodity that’s also facing a shortage due to the war in Iran: fertilizer.

“Oil above $70 is the headline, but the bigger, underpriced risk is nitrogen fertilizer, as a functional closure of the Strait of Hormuz threatens 25% to 35% of globally traded ammonia and urea,” wrote Jake Hanley, Chief Growth Officer and Director of Investments at Teucrium in a note last week. “Unlike oil, there is no strategic fertilizer reserve, new ammonia plants take years to build, and existing facilities are already running near capacity,” he added.

With the Strait of Hormuz closed, fertilizer prices are climbing to the highest they’ve been in years at the worst possible moment. Between February 27 and March 6 alone, the price per short ton of urea fertilizer imports in the US rose 30%, according to CNBC—just in time for the spring planting season here in the US.

US fertilizer companies surged today on the notion that they’ll be able to take market share while Middle Eastern producers are locked out of the market. On top of that, American fertilizer companies enjoy another advantage over their international counterparts: access to cheap US natural gas, a key input for fertilizer production, while LNG prices continue to rise around the globe.

CF Industries Holdings has risen 22.82% over the past week, reaching an all-time high on Monday, while Mosaic has rallied 19.27% in the last five days. Nutrien, a Canadian fertilizer producer, jumped 12.81% over the same period.

All roads lead back to stagflation

While fertilizer stocks are enjoying a boost, the supply shortage could be a major issue for the economy, and reignite inflation. Rising fertilizer costs for farmers could bump the price of food as crop yields decline—a dangerous one-two punch for global agriculture.

But when it comes to geopolitics, nobody has a crystal ball—all we can do is wait and see.—LB

• Americans are already paying about 19% more at the pump than they were before the attacks on Iran.
• It’s no coincidence that Goldman Sachs just upped its price target on oil for the second time in a week.
• Traders are no longer pricing in a Fed rate cut this year.
• Here’s why the usual rotation into safe-haven sectors in times of turmoil isn’t happening this time.
• Costco is suing the government over tariff costs. Now, Costco is being sued by a shopper over tariff costs.
• This is why gold hasn’t rallied despite the war in Iran—and what’s going to happen to the hot commodity next.

Economic reports: The week ends on a high note with a plethora of big reports, including a primary revision of Q4 GDP, a preliminary look at consumer sentiment in March, and the January JOLTS report.

The report that’s sure to grab headlines, however, is the January PCE reading. This is the last inflation report ahead of the FOMC meeting on March 17, and while it’s still extremely important for the Fed to take a look back at how things were going earlier in the year, the expected onset of higher inflation in the future thanks to rising oil prices has made this report less essential than it once was.