Good afternoon. Elections, as we’ve seen this week, are a great excuse for the market to splurge. After all, once the big political question mark hanging over investors’ heads has been answered, they tend to cut loose and buy, buy, buy.
The celebration this year was record-breaking, particularly in the world of ETFs. Investors poured $22 billion into ETFs on Wednesday alone—which is about how much money investors put into ETFs in an average week.
That’s also a post-election day record, and well above the $4 billion that flowed into ETFs the day after Joe Biden was elected president. The biggest winners were familiar names in the Trump trade: financial, industrial, and crypto ETFs.
—Mark Reeth & Lucy Brewster
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*Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 4:00pm ET.
Here's what these numbers mean.
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Stocks ended a record-breaking election week by breaking a bunch of records: The Dow rose above 44,000 for the first time ever, the S&P 500 rose above 6,000 for the first time ever, and the Nasdaq hit its own all-time high.
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Tesla in particular had an excellent week, rising to a market cap of $1 trillion on a post-election surge.
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Treasury yields fell and ended the week lower than where they began as investors hedged their bets and bought bonds.
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Oil rose a bit this week on fears that Hurricane Rafael would disrupt supply in the Gulf Coast, but new projections show the storm losing steam, which meant oil did as well.
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One investment that didn’t lose steam this week: bitcoin. The crypto king soared to a new all-time high as traders bought into a friendlier regulatory environment under Donald Trump (more on that below).
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Illustration: Emily Parsons, Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
Donald Trump may have just been re-elected Commander in Chief, but his new title pales in comparison to his role as Chief Crypto Advocate at World Liberty Financial.
The Trump crypto token may have floundered from the get-go, but the Republican tactic of embracing the cryptocurrency industry certainly paid off. Branding themselves as the pro-crypto party attracted powerful Silicon Valley allies and pro-crypto voters alike to the Trump camp.
That’s why bitcoin soared on Trump’s election victory, along with most of the crypto industry, while a basket of crypto-related equities including Coinbase and MicroStrategy surged as well. Crypto investors think this is only the beginning.
“We are entering the Golden Age of Crypto,” wrote Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Matt Hougan in a Wednesday note. “It will drive greater institutional investment, spark widespread adoption of crypto technology by the financial services industry, and accelerate innovation and the development of mainstream applications,” he added.
But for a guy who once said bitcoin was “based on thin air,” Trump’s pro-crypto constituents will have to watch him like a hawk to make sure he follows through on his campaign promises. So, what do they want from him, exactly?
Here’s what Trump has vowed he’ll do in the name of crypto:
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Fire SEC Chairman Gary Gensler “on day one.” There’s perhaps no public figure that inspires more fury among crypto enthusiasts than Gensler, who has brought over 100 actions against crypto firms during his tenure.
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Launch a national crypto stockpile. Trump said at the Bitcoin Conference this year that he wants to create a “strategic reserve” of bitcoin.
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Ensure all future bitcoin is mined in the US. “If crypto is going to define the future, I want it to be mined, minted and made in the USA,” Trump also claimed at the Bitcoin Conference.
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Support crypto friendly legislation, such as the Digital Commodities Consumer Protection Act, which would grant the much less stringent Commodity Futures Trading Commission jurisdiction over crypto instead of the SEC.
Essentially, what many in the crypto industry want is clearer regulation of various digital asset investment vehicles and financial instruments, and they’re hoping Trump brings just that.
But if there’s one thing we know from the first Trump administration, it is that he makes a lot of bold promises to a lot of people who all think they have his ear.
Bitcoin investors will surely be hoping he’s a true believer.—LB
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A Republican administration is heading to the White House in January. So what does that mean for vehicle manufacturing? S&P Global covers what you need to know as the US heads into a new presidential term.
According to S&P Global, the industry can expect a freeze on emissions legislation for model years 2028–32, likely maintaining the current rules with potential delays in future targets.
Additionally, the Republican administration may seek to cut funding for the Inflation Reduction Act, affecting consumer tax credits + incentives for electric vehicles (EVs). California’s stringent emissions standards may also be revoked, impacting compliance standards for automakers across the US.
Here’s what else to expect.
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🟢 What’s up
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In another daily double-digit swing, Trump Media & Technology Group jumped 15.22% after President-elect Trump announced he has no plans to sell shares of his social media company.
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Toast isn’t just for breakfast anymore—it’s also a restaurant software company that’s making money hand over fist. Shares popped 14.93% on strong earnings news.
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Axon Enterprise climbed 28.68% to a new all-time high thanks to an impressive quarter for the law enforcement technology company.
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Upstart started up and stayed there, soaring 46.02% after the AI lending marketplace beat-and-raised analyst estimates last quarter.
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Unless you’re a medical professional, you’ve probably never heard of digital platform Doximity, but doctors love it. Shares surged 34.06% on a stronger-than-expected quarter.
What’s down
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Pinterest plummeted after the social media site announced slowing user growth combined with lower ad pricing, a one-two combo that sent shares tumbling 14%.
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Airbnb may have beaten revenue expectations, but shareholders punished it for missing on earnings estimates last quarter. Shares fell 8.66%.
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Sweetgreen sank 6.01% after the fast casual eatery fell short of analyst estimates last quarter and Goldman Sachs lowered its rating from “buy” to “neutral.”
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Redfin plunged 15.62% after it announced lower earnings than analysts expected, cut its forecasts, and revealed it’s losing ground to competitors.
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Samuel Corum/Getty Images
“No.”
One word can sometimes speak volumes, and Jerome Powell’s terse answer to a reporter’s question on whether he will leave his post after Donald Trump enters the White House made it crystal clear that he’s not going anywhere.
Donald Trump may have elected Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair back in 2017, but the two have had a tense relationship in the years since. Trump has made it clear that he believes the Fed shouldn’t be an independent agency any longer, noting as recently as last month that he should have “the right to put in comments as to whether the interest rates should go up or down.”
But Powell did his best Wolf of Wall Street impression at yesterday’s post-FOMC press conference and made it evident that he has no plans to vacate his position—even if the president-elect asks for his resignation.
JPow’s tenure as Federal Reserve chair is up in May 2026, and it’s press conferences like these that will make us sad to see our favorite salt-and-pepper slender king go.
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Zhang Bin/Getty Images
It’s not easy to find many stock market “losers” this week, given the euphoria following the election.
But one group of stocks that weren’t celebrating Trump’s win?
Retailers.
That’s because they’d bear the brunt of the next administration’s proposed tariffs, which include a baseline of 10% on all imports, and 60% on imports from China.
Over the last week, Dollar General is down 6.32%, Five Below is down 9.93%, and Crocs is down 3.68%, even while the S&P 500 jumped 4.72%.
How tariffs would hurt retailers
Tariffs would make it more expensive for retailers to import the goods they manufacture abroad into the United States. So, they face a choice: absorb those higher costs and live with lower profits or pass those costs along to the consumer. Neither option is appealing.
In a report on Monday, the National Retail Federation estimated that American consumers would lose up to $78 billion in spending power every year tariffs were in place. The group predicted “dramatic” price hikes in the double-digit percentages in categories such as apparel, furniture, household appliances, travel goods, toys, and footwear (consider: 99% of footwear sold in the US is produced abroad).
Winners and losers
If the tariffs were to come into effect (a big if), they would not impact all retailers equally. Some are more exposed to China than others. Some have greater pricing power, so they could raise prices without seeing a major dent in sales. And some have such massive scale that they could absorb the cost of the tariffs without raising prices for consumers.
The unlucky ones: Bank of America analyst Lorraine Hutchinson identified five retailers—Five Below, Crocs, Skechers, Amer Sports, and American Eagle Outfitters—that are most at risk because they source at least 20% of their goods from China.
- Deep discounters like dollar stores, too, are seen as vulnerable. Their whole ~thing~ is that they offer non-essential goods on the cheap, so raising prices could lead to fewer sales.
The retailers in a better position: Giants like Amazon and Walmart should make out OK in the tariff era. Their scale will allow them to negotiate better deals and find lower-cost ways of importing their goods, M Science’s global director of research, John Tomlinson, told Barron’s. The rich get richer.
And companies that have vivid memories of tariffs in Trump’s first term have been preparing for this moment by reducing their reliance on China, a shift that is likely to accelerate. Yesterday, Steve Madden’s CEO said that as soon as the election results hit the wire, it put a plan into motion that would cut its China-made products by 40%–45%.—NF
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What’s new? With Republicans taking control of the White House, what changes can the automotive industry expect? According to S&P Global, manufacturers can anticipate continued bipartisan support for tariffs on automotive products from China, which could lead to Chinese automakers establishing production in the US to offset costs. Learn more. |
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Well, that didn’t take long: China announced a $1.4 trillion bailout plan to help local governments pay off their debt (and also probably brace its economy for Trump tariffs). Chinese stocks sank in disappointment that the stimulus wasn’t as big as they’d hoped.
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Americans just can’t shake the feeling that the economy is worse than it is. Does that mean the vibecession is here to stay?
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The next industry poised for AI disruption: healthcare.
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Speaking of AI, some of the biggest names in the AI race are making deals with intelligence and defense agencies.
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Don’t forget that Nvidia and Sherwin Williams replaced Intel and Dow Inc. in the Dow Jones Industrial Average today.
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The Fed’s next move:
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Just a reminder that the bond market is closed for Veteran’s Day on Monday, though the stock market will remain open.
We’ve got a few reports to watch out for, plus a wave of Fed governors commenting on this week’s rate decision. Tuesday brings us the small business optimism index, we’ve got CPI on Wednesday, and PPI plus initial jobless claims on Thursday, before we wrap the week with US retail sales on Friday.
Earnings slow down quite a bit next week, though there’s still a few big names on deck.
Monday: Angi, Aramark, and, ironically, monday.com
Tuesday: Shopify, Home Depot, Spotify, Cava, Instacart, Chegg, and Tim Hortons International
Wednesday: Dole and Cisco
Thursday: Disney, JD.com, Advance Auto Parts, and Applied Materials
Friday: Alibaba Group Holdings
It’s been a wild week month year, so enjoy a well-earned break this weekend!
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