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Happy 2nd birthday, bull market!
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Plus, recap of Tesla's disaster and big bank earnings.
October 11, 2024 View Online | Sign Up | Shop

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Revv

Good afternoon. Monday is a national holiday here in the US, but more people want to work this holiday season than they have in years.

According to job site Indeed, searches for seasonal jobs are the highest they’ve been in recent history, up 18% since last year. Although more people want to work this holiday season than they have in years, postings for seasonal jobs have fallen back to pre-pandemic levels, making finding a holiday gig more competitive.

The only outlier is the retail sector, which accounts for 66% of all holiday season jobs. But as anyone who’s worked a Black Friday behind a cash register will tell you, retail is no walk in the park. So if you’re planning to work this holiday season, we hope you’ll use this long weekend to take a deep, calming breath before the seasonal madness really kicks in.

—Mark Reeth & Lucy Brewster

MARKETS

Nasdaq

18,342.94

S&P

5,815.03

Dow

42,863.86

10-Year

4.073%

Gold

$2,673.60

Oil

$75.62

Data is provided by

*Stock data as of market close. Here's what these numbers mean.

  • Stocks ended the week on a high note, closing out their fifth straight week of gains. The Dow was pushed to yet another new all-time high by strong earnings from JPMorgan, while the S&P 500 spent all day in the green and rose to its own record close, and the Nasdaq clawed its way out of the red by the early afternoon.
  • Bond yields took a breather, falling below 4.1% thanks to a better-than-expected PPI report that helped offset inflation fears that had re-arisen after yesterday’s worse-than-expected CPI report.
  • Gold rose as well on PPI news, since the data pointed to a better chance of more rate cuts ahead.
  • Oil fell a hair today, but has gained over the last two weeks on geopolitical tensions and destruction in the Gulf of Mexico following two major hurricanes.
 

ANNOUNCEMENTS

Tour de stocks

Tesla cybercab Youtube/Tesla

Another wild week in the markets finished strong today, with huge stock moves in both the tech and banking industries.

Before clocking out for the long weekend (yes, it’s long for us too this time, thanks for unchaining us from our desks, Neal ), take a look at some of the biggest announcements from the final days of the week.

  • TSLA: If the AI you fear is going to take your job is the same machine learning driving Tesla’s new Cybercab, you shouldn’t be too worried yet. Shares of the EV-maker dropped 8.78% after its highly anticipated self-driving(ish) car failed to impress. Shares of Uber and Lyft rose 10.81% and 9.59%, respectively, on the news, given they haven’t been put out to pasture by AI quite yet.
  • JPM: Big banks were able to overcome high interest rate pressure, surprising analysts to the upside. JPMorgan shares jumped 4.44% after its third-quarter profit and revenue blew past expectations, largely due to the company generating more interest income than projected by analysts. Crucially, net interest income, which measures profits from loan-making, jumped 3% to $23.5 billion, beating estimates of $22.73 billion. However, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned that geopolitical risks are “treacherous and getting worse,” indicating choppy seas ahead.
  • WFC: Shares of Wells Fargo rose 5.61% today, despite a slight earnings miss. Its net interest income, the profitability metric for loan making, decreased 11% year over year, coming in at $11.69 billion, due to the higher costs that come from more customers picking higher-yielding deposits. For full-year guidance, the bank projected net interest income to be down 9% from 2023’s level, about in-line with expectations.

Now that you have absorbed this crucial information, we give you permission to log off for the weekend. Happy Friday!

Presented by Revv

Stocks made simple

Revv

STOCKS

The biggest winners and losers on the stock market today

🟢 What’s up

What’s down

  • Stellantis continued to tumble today, falling another 2.22% after the carmaker announced its CEO will step down in early 2026.
  • A.O. Smith probably doesn’t ring a bell, but there’s a good chance they made the water heater in your basement. Unfortunately, they’re not selling too many these days, and shares sank 6.25% after the company cut its full-year outlook.

HEARD ON THE STREET

Quote of the day

“I am totally comfortable with skipping a meeting if the data suggests that’s appropriate.”

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic helped improve the chances of no-cut November when he told the Wall Street Journal that, while he supported a 50 bps cut last month, he thinks it may now be appropriate to not cut during one of the final two FOMC meetings this year.

A much stronger-than-expected jobs report last week revealed that the labor market may be better off than central bankers originally thought, while a hotter-than-anticipated CPI report showed that inflation hasn’t been fully beaten just yet.

The one-two punch was enough to make Bostic think that it may not be appropriate to cut rates by another 50 bps anytime soon, and he’s probably not the only one. The latest FOMC meeting minutes revealed that several members of the Federal Reserve’s governing committee seemed inclined to only cut rates by 25 bps last month. New data should give those central bankers more reason to hold back on steeper cuts going forward.

Remember how we said on Tuesday that the once-absurd idea of the Federal Reserve not cutting rates was gaining traction? When we wrote that, there was an 11% chance the Fed keeps rates steady at its next meeting. Today, the odds hit 16%. Who knows where that number will be tomorrow?

ANNIVERSARIES

Happy birthday bull!

Stock market bull on Wall Street XPacifica/Getty Images

We’re pleased to bring you a guest post from our good friend Phil Rosen, the co-founder and editor-in-chief of Opening Bell Daily, an independent financial news outlet. You can sign up for his free morning newsletter here.

Who’s ready to party?

The stock market’s bull run officially turns two on Saturday. For the record, the S&P 500 is up 61% since October 12, 2022, when the index hit its bear-market bottom at 3,577.03.

We’re about halfway through the median bull market of about 46 months, according to JPMorgan. So if this ends up being a typical upswing, investors have about 22 months of runway left.

Then again, there’s reason to believe things are going better than usual. Over the last two years, the benchmark index has recovered from sharp pullbacks on its way to scores of record highs.

In fact, about one in five trading days in 2024 have brought a new all-time close.

S&P 500 pullbacks in the last 12 monthsPhil Rosen, Opening Bell Daily

Not for nothing, equities have also proven resilient enough to keep climbing through the Federal Reserve’s most aggressive rate-hiking cycle in decades.

Chart of S&P rallies through last twelve monthsPhil Rosen, Opening Bell Daily

The broad cooldown in inflation helped keep investors enthused, too.

Stocks have rallied as CPI fallsPhil Rosen, Opening Bell Daily

Barring a 40% crash before January, the S&P 500 is on pace to notch its second consecutive year of at least a 20% gain for the first time since 1998, according to Dow Jones data.

Will this bull market turn three years old?

Now, let’s be clear: Florida’s hurricanes, an intensifying Middle East conflict, and the fast-approaching presidential election all pose a risk for investors. At the same time, the S&P 500’s forward price-to-earnings ratio — a measure that compares the price of a company to its future earnings estimates — has inched closer to “overvalued” territory this year.

In October 2022, the gauge hovered at 15. As the Yardeni Research team pointed out in a note Wednesday, that’s since jumped to 21.6 — spitting distance to the 25.5 seen in 1999 when the Dot-Com Bubble was still expanding.

That said, the stock market does appear to be getting less top-heavy. Wall Street considers a broadening market to be a healthier market.

  • The equal-weighted S&P 500 outperformed the cap-weighted version in the third quarter.
  • The Magnificent Seven’s influence on the index is shrinking.
  • 85% of S&P 500 companies are in the green compared to a year ago.

“How long this bull will last is anyone’s guess, but we remain in the camp that looking out the next six to nine months we simply don’t see any reason to expect a recession or end of the bull market,” said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist for Carson Group. “Will it last another three years? All we will say there is the odds are better than many expect.”—PR

We love bringing you a recap of the market’s biggest moves at the end of every trading day, but if you want to add some investing info to your mornings as well, we’d highly recommend Phil’s work at Opening Bell Daily.

   

Together with Revv

Revv

NEWS

What's going on in financial markets today
  • PPI, CPI’s older, more professional brother, showed that inflation is still slowly but surely falling.
  • Saudi Arabia’s massive sovereign wealth fund allocated $5.2 billion in green bonds through mid-2024, giving environmentally friendly investments a much-needed boost.
  • Higher-risk investment strategies don’t always yield higher returns, which is why keeping more of your portfolio in cash may be better in the long run.
  • “Too much hair” is not how most IPOs would be described, but AI infrastructure startup Cerebras’ attempts to go public may be too hairy for Wall Street.
  • Your air conditioning bill this summer might have been red-hot, but last year’s warm winter means that heating with natural gas this year will be cheap.
  • Mo’ money, no mo’ problems: New research reveals that more money actually does make you happier, even if you’re already rich. What a shocking revelation.

CALENDAR

What is happening in the world of finance tomorrow

Monday is Indigenous Peoples’ Day, so the bond market is closed. While the stock market is still open, enough investors want a three-day weekend that there are no major earnings announcements or economic reports.

In fact, compared to this week, next week is a real snooze on the data front. Tuesday and Wednesday don’t deliver any economic announcements that will move the needle, though Thursday’s a treasure trove of reports, including initial jobless claims, US retail sales, and the Home Builder Confidence Index. Friday wraps things up with more real estate info, including housing starts and building permits.

But while it’s a drought on the economic data side, we’ve got a tidal wave of earnings reports as the season kicks off in earnest.

Tuesday: UnitedHealth Group, Johnson & Johnson, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Charles Schwab, Citigroup, State Street, Albertsons, Walgreens Boots Alliance, United Airlines.

Wednesday: Morgan Stanley, Abbott Laboratories, ASML Holding, U.S. Bancorp, Citizens Bank, CSX, Kinder Morgan, Discover Financial Services, Equifax, PPG Industries, Alcoa.

Thursday: Blackstone, Netflix, Intuitive Surgical, Elevance Health, Truist, M&T Bank.

Friday: Procter & Gamble, American Express, Schlumberger, Fifth Third Bancorp, Ally Financial.

Morning Brew is closed on Monday, but don’t worry, we’ve prepared a special earnings season edition of Brew Markets ready to blow your minds. Until then, have a great weekend!—The Brew Markets Team

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