Good afternoon. 2024 was a wild year for the entire crypto ecosystem—and with a friendly administration heading to the White House, the likelihood of further SEC approval in the coming months, and perhaps even the creation of a strategic bitcoin reserve, 2025 is shaping up to be another banner year.
In today's special edition we'll take a look into our crystal ball to see what the months ahead hold for crypto, where the pros believe bitcoin will end the year, and which cryptocurrencies will be the best investments.
—Mark Reeth & Lucy Brewster
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Data is provided by |
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*Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 4:00pm ET.
Here's what these numbers mean.
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- Stocks sank across the board today, yanked lower by big losses among big tech. With only three trading days left in 2024, it remains to be seen if a Santa Claus rally will materialize, or if stocks will wrap up the year on a low note.
- That said, we're not trying to be a Grinch and worry you—with trading volume so light today, these market moves aren't likely to last. Plus, there's always a lot of profit-taking at the end of the year.
- Gold continued to drop today, polishing off a dull week for the commodity as traders worried about higher-for-longer interest rates in 2025 dump it.
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FUNDS
Who knew the investment vehicle famous for popularizing steady returns in the name of unglamorous, passive long-term investing would become the rocket fuel powering bitcoin’s ascension to $100,000?
Spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds, which were first approved by the SEC in January 2024, ushered in an era of mainstream Wall Street adoption that helped propel bitcoin to record heights.
ETFs for everything
ETFs may be known for tracking broad index funds, but they trade like stocks—you can buy and sell them throughout the day on major exchanges. Unlike bitcoin futures ETFs, which have been on the market since October 2021, spot bitcoin ETFs are backed by actual bitcoin. This makes it way simpler for retail investors to invest in the asset, and because it's overseen by the SEC, it also has more robust regulatory protections.
The ETF format also means that, theoretically, institutional investors such as endowments and pension funds could invest in crypto, in addition to laying out a path for financial advisors to recommend these ETFs to clients.
Since launching in mid-January, bitcoin ETFs now represent 1% of all money in ETFs—with over $100 billion assets in the spot bitcoin funds collectively.
In October, the SEC also approved spot ethereum ETFs, which, while not as popular as their bitcoin counterparts, have still drawn in billions in assets.
And that was just the start of the degeneracy unleashed: Since January, an inverse bitcoin ETF has launched, as well as leveraged bitcoin funds and covered call bitcoin ETFs. The SEC also approved options trading on the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT).
What’s next? With crypto-advocate Paul Atkins nominated for the role of SEC chairman, asset managers are more optimistic than ever about the prospect of getting a whole array of ETFs approved.
Here’s a rundown of some of the ETF filings the SEC could approve in 2025:
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Solana ETFs: Five investment firms, including Bitwise, Grayscale, and VanEck, have filed for a spot solana ETF. While the SEC is reportedly poised to reject the current filings, the asset managers could refile after the Trump administration is in office. Solana is up over 73% in the last 12 months.
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Other spot token ETFs: Asset manager Canary Capital filed for the first-ever litecoin ETF back in October, as well as a ripple ETF and an XRP ETF. While these funds would also hold crypto directly, it's unclear if there’s really the same demand for these lesser-known digital assets, especially given that spot ethereum ETFs are far less popular than bitcoin ETFs.
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Crypto market index funds: Why choose just one crypto? Asset manager Bitwise has filed for an ETF based on its Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund (BITW), a closed-end fund. The fund includes bitcoin, as well as smaller stakes in less popular cryptocurrencies like Chainlink and Polkadot.
While it’s unclear whether or not these funds will be approved, one thing is obvious: There are more ways to invest in crypto than ever, and according to the bulls, that means the rally has only just begun.—LB
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Presented by Grayscale Investments
Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF (“BTC”), an exchange-traded product, is not registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940 (or the ’40 Act) and therefore is not subject to the same regulations and protections as 1940 Act–registered ETFs and mutual funds. Investing involves significant risk, including possible loss of principal. An investment in BTC is subject to a high degree of risk and heightened volatility. Digital assets are not suitable for an investor that cannot afford the loss of the entire investment. An investment in BTC is not an investment in Bitcoin.
Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF, aka the Bitcoin Mini (fund ticker: BTC), is the most cost-effective way to gain exposure to Bitcoin directly through your existing brokerage or retirement account (it has the lowest fee* of all spot Bitcoin funds in the market). Invest the same way you would invest in any other stock or ETF (though brokerage fees may still apply). That’s right—you don’t need a separate crypto wallet or an account on a crypto exchange!
Simply search “BTC” on your preferred trading platform, or click here to learn more.
Grayscale is a crypto-focused asset manager and has been offering exposure to crypto through investment products for over a decade.
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FUTURE
If you need one more piece of motivation to fulfill your New Year's resolution of limiting screentime, allow us to provide one: Crypto bulls predict an army of AI bots are about to flood the internet.
While memecoins, speculation, and inside jokes on social media have marked bitcoin’s previous bull runs, there’s one major difference now: generative AI is a thing. And crypto industry watchers now expect “AI agents” to explode in popularity over the next year.
What the heck are those? “AI agents are specialized AI bots that direct users to achieve outcomes such as ‘maximizing yield’ or ‘spurring X/Twitter engagement,’” wrote Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at asset manager VanEck. “As such, we believe the enormous potential for agents will result in the birth of over 1 million new agents in 2025.”
Popular AI agent “Terminal of Truths” has already gained popularity on X. The bot was created by researcher Andy Avrey, and gained momentum in July when VC Mark Andreesen gifted the bot $50,000 to trade with.
But what are all these bots going to be doing?
“There’s even more potential for AI agents to become more useful — both in fulfilling human intents, and in becoming standalone network participants,” wrote a16z partner Carra Wu. “As networks of AI agents begin to custody their own crypto wallets, signing keys, and crypto assets, we’ll see interesting new use cases emerge.”
Hopefully some of those new interesting use cases include teaching day-trading crypto bros basic social skills.—LB
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PREDICTIONS
Forecasting the future of any asset class is a tricky endeavor—and few investments are quite as volatile as crypto.
But if there’s one thing 2024 has taught us, it's that digital assets are resilient.
There’s palpable optimism among industry bulls, who are welcoming a more friendly regulatory environment, a fresh record for crypto's chief blue-chip token, and an ever-growing sea of nonsensical memecoins.
So, what will the next year bring?
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan and Head of Research Ryan Rasmussen outlined their 10 very bullish predictions for the next year, some of which include:
- Bitcoin will start trading above $200,000, and ethereum and solana will also break records.
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Coinbase will be added to the S&P 500 index, while Microstrategy will join the Nasdaq 100. The second one was actually already proven correct earlier this month: The Nasdaq announced that MicroStrategy is joining the index and will also now be included in the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF.
- In fact, Coinbase will become the most valuable brokerage in the world, surpassing Charles Schwab.
- The number of nations that hold bitcoin will double.
Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at asset manager VanEck also unveiled his firm’s 10 predictions for the next year, including:
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The price of bitcoin will set a new record in Q1, before retreating and then hitting an even greater record high in Q4.
- Either the federal government or at least one US state will establish a bitcoin reserve.
- There will be over 1 million new AI bots that use or promote blockchain technology.
Keep in mind: These predictions are from bitcoin bulls. The scale can tip the other way, too: When bitcoin broke the $60,000 mark in November 2021, it then dipped into a brutal bear market. The price didn’t fully recover again until March of this year.
That’s why even pro-crypto financial advisors only recommend allocating a small percentage (less than 5%) of your portfolio to crypto.—LB
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Together with Grayscale Investments
Crypto-curious? If you’re looking to add crypto exposure to your portfolio, look for Grayscale. Grayscale has billions in assets under management and has been managing crypto investments for over a decade, so they have the experience to help you get started. Think crypto, invest Grayscale. |
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MOVING TARGET
Listen, a 120% gain in a single year is enough to get any investor hyped. But even the most bullish of bitcoin believers have to admit that a soaring crypto market could be setting itself up for a correction.
At least that’s what Peter Berezin, chief global strategist of BCA Research, believes will happen. In a sea of optimism, Berezin has crowned himself the biggest bear, declaring that bitcoin will plunge roughly 52% to $45,000 by the end of 2025.
To be clear, Berezin’s prediction is predicated on a broader economic downturn that brings the entire market down with it. He believes bitcoin parallels investments in tech stocks, and he foresees both investments plunging during a recession.
We’re not trying to end things on a low note here. Berezin is one of very few analysts who foresee such an extensive collapse in bitcoin’s price next year—the vast majority of pros believe that further adoption, whether that’s due to acceptance among financial institutions or the creation of a strategic reserve, will lead to further gains in 2025.
All we’re saying is, in the wild world of crypto, be prepared for anything.—MR
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✢ A Note From Grayscale Investments
*Low fee based on gross expense ratio at .15%.
Please read the prospectus carefully before investing in the Fund. Foreside Fund Services, LLC is the Marketing Agent for the Fund.
The Fund holds Bitcoin; however, an investment in the Fund is not a direct investment in Bitcoin. As a non-diversified and single industry fund, the value of the shares may fluctuate more than shares invested in a broader range of industries. Extreme volatility, regulatory changes, and exposure to digital asset exchanges may impact the value of Bitcoin and, consequently, the value of the Fund. The value of the Fund relates directly to the value of the underlying digital asset, the value of which may be highly volatile and subject to fluctuations due to a number of factors.
✳︎ A Note From Grayscale Investments
Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal.
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