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Good afternoon. The S&P 500 has gained 23% in 2024. Bright Minds Biosciences has gained 2,296% in the past five days.
The microcap Canadian pharma company hasn’t reported any revenue, yet shares exploded higher on Tuesday for…some reason? The Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (basically the SEC, just more polite) reached out to the biotech for an explanation of why its stock suddenly soared out of the blue this week. The company’s answer was the verbal equivalent of a shrug emoji, with their spokesperson noting that nothing has materially changed about the company’s business.
The only thing that may explain the sudden stock surge: Bright Minds Biosciences’ ticker symbol is DRUG, which is exactly the sort of stock symbol meme traders love.
—Mark Reeth & Lucy Brewster
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*Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 4:00pm ET.
Here's what these numbers mean.
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Like the New York Jets getting Davante Adams, markets were hoping for some good trades today after getting routed just a day earlier. The S&P 500 started the trading session in the red but recovered quickly, the Nasdaq clawed its way out of negative territory, and the Dow soared over 300 points to a new record close in a much-needed win for stocks.
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Treasury yields sank as investors contemplated lower-than-expected interest rate cuts ahead, which was good news for gold, which popped higher.
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Bitcoin has had a stellar week, rising to just shy of $68,000 in only a few days as the crypto king rallied alongside equities and climbed closer to recent highs.
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Like the Buffalo Bills getting Amari Cooper, oil traders had to settle for less today. Crude continued to sell off, falling dangerously close to $70 per barrel, as fears of a supply disruption in the Middle East continue to abate.
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Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP/Getty Images
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After a slew of high-profile nuclear disasters over the past decades that caused death, destruction, and an HBO original series, many argued humanity should put nuclear aside given the astronomical risk if something goes wrong.
Instead, Silicon Valley is ushering in a new era of nuclear power in order to—you guessed it—enable artificial intelligence.
In just the past month, Microsoft revived a reactor on the notorious Three Mile Island, while Google inked a deal to purchase power from small modular nuclear reactors.
Today, Amazon announced that it signed an agreement with Virginia’s utility firm, Dominion Energy, to plan the construction of a nuclear reactor near Dominion’s already-existing nuclear power station in the state. Amazon Web Services will invest $500 million to build the new power plant.
AI isn’t just expensive—it’s energy intensive, too. And it drains more than just your emotional energy after reading wordy Twitter threads from startup founders explaining why you need a tiny robot overlord companion around your neck.
Powering the data centers that process machine learning technology that these firms are racing to produce takes huge amounts of power.
And nuclear plants create more energy than other green options like solar and wind. That’s music to the ears of Big Tech firms that are trying to increase their market caps while meeting ambitious clean energy goals they’ve (at times begrudgingly) set for themselves.
This past summer, Google admitted that its AI tech had already driven up its corporate emissions by 13% last year, setting the company back in its carbon emissions goal.
To be fair, it’s not just Big Tech that’s in favor of nuclear power. Many scientists see it as the most reliable source of green energy as nations around the globe aim to move past fossil fuels. According to a Pew Research study conducted in May, a majority of Americans support nuclear power.
How to make your portfolio go nuclear
The expansion of nuclear power has particularly benefited power producers that operate nuclear energy, like Vistra Corp, which has been the S&P 500’s best performer this year. Constellation Energy and Talen Energy Corp. have also seen huge gains in 2024.
More recently, small startups like Oklo and NuScale Power Corp. have enjoyed big benefits from the nuclear wave, particularly since Big Tech seems interested in smaller power plants. Oklo is up 166.34% in the last month, while NuScale has risen 96.90%.
Of course, the expansion of AI power should boost tech stocks—when they can prove the investments are panning out. And if nuclear power keeps expanding, these stocks could enjoy an even bigger boom in the future.—LB
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🟢 What’s up
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Trump Media & Technology Group has had a wild week, falling nearly 10% yesterday before trading of the stock was halted, then popping 15.52% today. Election hype, a Trump-sponsored cryptocurrency, and Truth+, a new streaming service, are keeping shareholders on their toes.
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Abbott Laboratories rose 1.53% thanks to a stronger-than-expected earnings report powered by the company’s impressive medical device sales.
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Aspen Aerogels makes insulating material for batteries, which sounds boring to everyone but the Department of Energy. The DOE signed a conditional commitment to loan the company up to $670 million, sending shares 13.24% higher.
What’s down
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Novavax plummeted 19.44% after the FDA put a hold on the pharma company’s flu and Covid vaccine combination.
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ASML Holding NV dropped another 6.42% today as the semiconductor selloff continues.
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Interactive Brokers enjoyed higher revenue and more trading from its user base last quarter, but earnings per share came in under expectations, and shares sank 4.05%.
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Bull market birthdays are a big deal. This bull’s 2-year celebration last Saturday got us reminiscing about the last few years, but what about the years ahead?
Turns out the fine folks at Carson Investment Research were wondering the same thing. They recently wrote that, while the first two years of a bull market can bring big gains, year three (the one we just kicked off) can get a bit choppy.
The average performance of the S&P 500 during the first year of a bull market is a 36.2% gain, and year two averages a 15% gain. For reference, the bull market that began back in October 2022 has given us a combined 63.8% gain over the last two years.
But in year three, bull markets tend to stumble: Since 1950, the S&P 500 has only gained an average of 2.1% in the third year of a bull market.
Considering the choppiness markets are enduring this week, this probably isn’t too much of a surprise. But if we can get through this, then there are good times waiting ahead.
“Should this bull market make it another year (as we expect), the returns in years four and five are extremely strong, up 14.6% in year four and nearly 19% in year five,” Carson’s Matt Smith wrote. “That should have bulls smiling indeed.”
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Morning Brew Design
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We’re in the thick of earnings season, which means that every day we’re getting a blitz of corporate report cards. And no one grades with a sharper eye than investors.
United Airlines took off 12.44% today after the airline raised its full-year guidance, leaving investors applauding the landing. Its third-quarter earnings beat forecasts, with revenue coming in at $14.84 billion, higher than the $14.78 billion analysts expected and up 2.5% from the year prior. And that wasn’t all: the firm also announced it would buy back $1.5 billion in shares, marking its first buyback since before the pandemic. The growth was from expanding flights that included new tickets to Spain and Greenland, along with growing capacity and demand for United’s basic economy options.
Morgan Stanley jumped 6.50% after the financial services firm handily beat top-line expectations. The bottom line boomed, too, rising 32% to $3.2 billion, while revenue climbed 16% to $15.38 billion. The Fed slashing interest rates and strong trading returns from the bull market helped boost the Wall Street firm, and fees from its investment banking division popped 56% from a year prior to $1.46 billion.
J.B. Hunt rose 3.14% after the transportation services company just beat earnings expectations on revenue and EPS. Earnings came in at $1.49 per share, down 17% year-over-year, but slightly above analyst forecasts for the quarter. While “meh” earnings doesn’t usually boost a firm’s share price, J.B. Hunt has had a tough year—shares are down about 8% in 2024. Investors are hopeful last quarter’s better-than-expected earnings will mark a turning point for the firm, which has struggled with slowing consumer demand and labor disputes.
Don’t put your grading pens down yet, because we have more coming down the pipeline tomorrow.—LB
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Things are going well—too well. Investor sentiment is starting to rise so much that it’s becoming a problem, according to BofA.
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Former President Donald Trump released a new cryptocurrency yesterday. In spite of big promises ahead of the unveiling, World Liberty Financial is falling short of its goals.
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Tariffs are the talk of the election, touted as a way to force foreign companies to pay up. There’s just one problem: US companies pay tariffs on imported goods.
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Investors make mistakes. Here are four you should never repeat.
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Worried about semiconductor stocks? So is Citigroup, which sees more downside ahead.
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Forget $3 trillion—this stock will be the first to hit a market cap of $5 trillion.
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It’s been a quiet week of economic reports, but Thursday brings all the data you’ve been waiting for.
The weekly initial jobless claims report has earned investor eyeballs, since it provides a guidepost for Federal Reserve officials concerned about the state of the labor market ahead of their next potential rate cut. Last week’s report showed 258,000 Americans filed for unemployment insurance, a 33,000 increase from the week prior. Economists expect that number to hit 260,000 this week, which is not a great trend, but still not bad enough for investors to sound the alarm.
We’ve also got a boatload of relatively minor manufacturing reports coming our way, including the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Industrial Production, and Capacity Utilization. All of those are fancy ways of measuring how strong the manufacturing industry is at the moment, and all of them have pointed to a lot of weakness in that sector lately.
The two other reports to watch are the home builder confidence index, which will tell us a bit more about the state of the single-family housing market, and US retail sales, which should reveal more about consumers’ mindsets heading into the holiday sales season.
Before the open
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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) is the first powerhouse semiconductor manufacturer dropping earnings this season. Shareholders expect another layup of a quarter, but competitor ASML’s recent dismal report has muddied the waters. Semi stocks have been selling off lately in reaction to ASML, which could mean this is a great opportunity for investors to buy low—unless TSMC runs into the same issues as its peer. Consensus: $1.79 EPS, $22.81 billion in revenue.
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The Travelers Companies (TRV) is one of the insurance companies that has been hurt by the recent spate of hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. Shares sank in early October as Hurricane Milton headed for shore, but they’ve since recovered, and remain up over 26% this year. Shareholders will want to hear more about benefit payouts last quarter, but a clean balance sheet and a solid dividend mean investors can hold onto hopes of a better-than-expected Q3. Consensus: $3.85 EPS, $11.49 billion in revenue.
After the close
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Netflix (NFLX) dominates the streaming market, and the stock’s impressive gains this year reflect shareholder optimism for more good times ahead. The problem is that double-digit revenue growth during the same quarter last year means Netflix has to keep up its momentum this quarter, while at the same time the company expects net membership and average revenue per member to flatline. The streamer needs to pull off this balancing act, or shares could sell off from their high price point. Consensus: $5.11 EPS, $9.76 billion in revenue.
Other earnings on the way: Blackstone, Elevance Health, Truist, Nokia, M&T Bank, Intuitive Surgical, Crown Castle.
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