Walmart just scanned in a win.

The retail giant topped fourth-quarter earnings and revenue estimates in its first report under CEO John Furner (who only took the helm on February 1). The big headline: US e-commerce sales climbed 27% year over year, bolstered by online orders and in-store pickups, and now account for 23% of revenue—a record high.

The tone, however, turned more cautious when it came to forward guidance. Walmart's outlook for the new fiscal year came in below expectations, with management pointing to continued uncertainty in consumer demand. That said, the company usually starts the year conservatively and raises its forecast as conditions become clearer, so for now, investors are giving it the benefit of the doubt—shares fell just 1.38% today.

Amazon vs Walmart

For more than a decade, Walmart held the title of the world’s largest company by revenue, and earlier this month became the first traditional retailer to surpass a $1 trillion market value. But that revenue crown has now shifted to a new head: Amazon reported $717 billion in 2025 sales, narrowly surpassing Walmart’s $713.2 billion for the fiscal year ended January 31.

The two companies compete for consumers’ dollars in different ways: Amazon leads online retail, drawing roughly 2.7 billion visits per month across its digital platforms, while Walmart remains the largest brick-and-mortar retailer globally, operating more than 10,000 stores and clubs worldwide.

The major differentiator has been cloud computing. Amazon’s revenue has grown at nearly ten times Walmart’s pace over the past decade, helped significantly by Amazon Web Services. Strip out AWS, and Amazon’s 2025 revenue would total about $588 billion, according to Bloomberg.

Walmart, lacking a comparable technological growth engine, remains more tied to traditional retail economics. However, investors are laser-focused on how Furner navigates an economy increasingly dominated by AI, and how the new CEO integrates the tech into Walmart’s e-commerce segment and its burgeoning advertising business.

What does this mean for the economy?

Given its scale and customer reach, Walmart is often viewed as a bellwether for consumer demand and broader economic trends, making its commentary especially telling.

What it suggests is an economy that’s holding up, but unevenly: higher-income shoppers continue to spend freely, while lower-income households remain constrained, a classic K-shaped pattern. The good news: while prices have risen about 1% over the past few months, management indicated that tariff-related cost pressures are likely nearing their peak.

For now, the carts keep moving, as Walmart navigates what comes next.—SY

🟢 What’s up

• Etsy surged 9.28% on a strong Q4 earnings report, plus the news it’s selling Depop to eBay in a $1.2 billion deal.
• Deere gained 11.58% after the company raised its annual profit outlook, citing a long-awaited rebound in the agriculture sector.
• Figma jumped 6.9% thanks to a 40% revenue surge and upbeat 2026 guidance.
• Omnicom rose 15.36% despite a profit miss, as investors focused on its major revenue beat.
• DoorDash added 1.62%, with investors encouraged by 38% revenue growth and a 32% jump in total orders despite soft guidance.
• Six Flags Entertainment climbed 8.42% after revenue topped expectations, even as attendance declined and losses widened.

What’s down

• Wayfair dipped 13.02% despite returning to annual growth and beating expectations.
• Airbus fell 6.64% after forecasting 870 aircraft deliveries for 2026, missing analyst targets.
• Carvana slid 7.95%, with EBITDA coming in below estimates even as revenue topped forecasts.
• Klarna plunged 26.91% despite topping a billion dollars in quarterly revenue for the first time.
• Avis Budget Group dropped 21.54% following a steep GAAP loss and revenue that missed expectations.
• Blue Owl Capital declined 5.93% after selling $1.4 billion in loan assets across private debt funds, raising liquidity concerns.

Here’s a not-so-fun fact: The median amount Americans have saved for retirement is $955, according to the National Institute of Retirement Security. That’s a far cry from the $2.1 million that Americans say they’ll need to retire comfortably, and it’s a problem that BlackRock CEO Larry Fink says is going to shift from startling to serious very soon.

In his latest annual letter to shareholders, Fink pointed out that one in three Americans have no retirement savings at all, while 51% are worried they’ll outlive the savings they do have as medical technology advances and extends lifespans. Meanwhile, the safety net is wearing thin: “Social Security’s retirement and disability funds will run out by 2035,” Fink wrote. “After that, people would get only 83% of their promised benefits, and that percentage will drop over time.”

A retirement crisis has been brewing for some time now, but as Fink underscores in his letter, it’s beginning to reach a boiling point. The oldest members of Gen X—the first generation to largely rely on private plans like 401(k)s for retirement, rather than pensions—are beginning to enter old age with far less in savings than they may need. Meanwhile, life has only gotten more expensive: inflation, the housing market, and the costs of childcare all combine to make saving for retirement that much more difficult.

The only people sitting pretty these days are the folks already breaking into their nest eggs. Or, as the Wall Street Journal put it today: people over the age of 65 own the economy thanks to their large share of equities and homeownership. Must be nice.—MR

The S&P 500 keeps climbing, data shows the economy is solid, and Harry Styles just dropped a new album…so why do the vibes feel so off?

Americans are looking around and failing to see all the so-called economic growth that’s supposedly happening. While the headline macro data paints a picture of a healthy economy, under the hood, things don’t look so pretty.

• Delinquency rates just hit their highest level in nearly a decade, while the amount of debt Americans are carrying has also ballooned to new heights.
• Even though inflation has deflated, it’s still left many everyday items far more expensive than they were a few short years ago, and companies are beginning to pass tariff costs on to consumers.
• While the GDP is expected to show the economy expanded 2.7% last year, unemployment barely grew at all, with the labor market locked in no-hire, no-fire stagnation.
• Oh, and don’t forget: AI is going to take everyone’s jobs.

Someone call vibes EMS

It’s been dubbed the “vibecession”, the “K-shaped economy” and most recently, the “boomcession.” At this point, it feels like we’re better at coming up with fun names for a solid economy mixed with low morale than solving the problem.

The downstream effects of the bad vibes are already happening: Gen Z is opting to put money in the stock market instead of buying homes. And many surveys show that Americans believe we’re in an economic downturn, which is not technically the case.

While the US has always had a tale of two economies, the disparity feels more dramatic these days. After all, $1 trillion in wealth was created for the 19 richest households in 2024, and that number is likely to grow when we get the data for last year, thanks to stock gains from the AI boom.

The bottom line: When writer Kyla Scanlon coined the term “vibecession” back in 2022, it put words to the disparity between how Americans were doing and how they felt. But now, the problem isn’t just vibes—the problem is reality.—LB

• Imports surged to a record high last year, despite the White House’s tariff policy.
• Foreign investors bought a net $1.6 trillion in US financial assets in 2025, bucking the “sell America” trade.
• Hims & Hers is buying an Australian telehealth company in a $1.15 billion deal to fuel its global reach.
• New York abandoned a proposal to allow driverless cars in the state in a huge setback for Waymo.
• Prediction markets are now replacing volatile growth stocks for a group of risk-embracing traders.
• Degeneracy begets degeneracy: CME Group just got one step closer to 24/7 crypto derivative trading on its exchange.
• New York Mets owner Steve Cohen just became the highest paid hedge fund manager in the world.

Economic reports: The short work week ends with a bang, thanks to a veritable cornucopia of economic readings worth watching. Keep an eye out for the December PCE reading, an early look at Q4 GDP, a preliminary reading of consumer sentiment, and the S&P flash services and manufacturing PMI reports

Earnings announcements: Western Union, Anglo American, and Danone

Everything else: The Winter Olympics will heat up tomorrow with both the men’s and women’s speedskating finals, while the US men’s hockey team will face Slovakia in the semifinals. In less fun news, the Supreme Court may announce its decision on President Trump’s tariff policies tomorrow as well—though they may continue to kick that particular can down the road for as long as possible.