Big tech is acting like they’re in a game show where the jackpot just keeps growing. But instead of racing to make money, they’re racing to spend it.

Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Amazon all upped their capital expenditures forecasts in their earnings reports this week, and promised to splash out even more next year. The four companies are now projected to collectively spend over $380 billion in capex this year alone, according to CNBC.

Then there’s Apple, which is a bit of a black sheep when it comes to the AI race—only investing a measly $12.7 billion in AI infrastructure in fiscal 2025, far smaller than the rest of the Mag 7’s bills. But investors were in a forgiving mood after the company reported upbeat guidance for iPhone sales during its earnings announcement last night.

Zoom out: The high that all of these massive tech companies are chasing is a kind of superintelligent AI that completely transforms society. But right now, it’s unclear if what we’re getting is a groundbreaking technology akin to the Industrial Revolution, or a discount dot-com bubble that’s about to explode in all of our faces.

“We believe it to be a massive opportunity with the potential for strong returns on invested capital over the long term,” Amazon CFO Brian Olsavsky reassured investors on the tech giant’s earnings call.

But the members of the Magnificent Seven aren’t even the biggest AI spenders on the block. Privately owned rival OpenAI recently announced about $1 trillion worth of deals with partners like Nvidia, Broadcom, and Oracle as Sam Altman looks to maintain his dwindling lead in the AI race.

Investors’ mixed emotions

While Meta dipped about 11% yesterday after the social media giant upped its AI spending guidance to roughly $71 billion for the year, Amazon soared 9.58% today after the company said it was planning to spend $125 billion this year—and potentially more next year.

There’s a reason traders cheered when Amazon revealed its AI receipt, while being spooked by Meta for doing the same thing: Amazon is actually already enjoying results from AI in its software cloud business, where sales growth jumped 20% last quarter.

Meanwhile, although Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has promised AI will boost how his company sells ads and recommends content on Instagram and Facebook, its earnings report lacked the cold, hard proof.

Meta may have lost this round, but the AI race is far from over—and these companies will spend whatever it takes to win.—LB

🟢 What’s up

• Brighthouse Financial soared 24.91% after reaching advanced talks to be acquired by Aquarian Holdings in a $40 billion deal, which includes a 40% premium over Brighthouse’s price today.
• Twilio skyrocketed 19.47% after the cloud communications provider reported a solid quarter, raising full-year guidance, and announcing the acquisition of AI startup Stytch.
• Affirm jumped 4.33% after securing a $750 million loan deal with New York Life Insurance.
• Cloudflare surged 13.84% after beating earnings and revenue estimates, with steady growth fueled by large customer wins and growing ties to generative AI.
• Netflix gained 2.74% after announcing a 10-for-1 stock split, designed to lower the trading price and broaden access for retail investors.
• Reddit rose 7.47% after a standout third quarter, with sales jumping 68% YoY and forward guidance coming in strong.

What’s down

• Getty Images climbed on news of a deal with Perplexity AI, which will integrate Getty’s content into Perplexity’s AI-powered search tools. But the stock gave up its early gains and ended the day down 6.47%.
• Dexcom slipped 14.63% after the diabetes device maker said the top end of its 2026 revenue forecast will likely fall short of Wall Street expectations.
• Newell Brands tanked 27.97% after the Sharpie and Yankee Candle maker reported lower sales and slashed its outlook, blaming tariff-driven cost pressures.
• SPS Commerce fell 20.84% despite beating earnings estimates, as the supply chain provider issued underwhelming guidance and flagged ongoing struggles in its revenue recovery platform.
• Luminar sank 45.02% after the automotive sensor manufacturer reported it will cut 25% of its workforce amid mounting debt and executive turnover.

Earnings from six members of the Magnificent 7 are in the books, and so far, so good—we can quibble about AI capex all we want, but it’s undeniable that big tech is looking as healthy as ever. The market rallied to new highs today as investors breathed a sigh of relief.

As good as that news is for markets, there’s still one more make-or-break moment ahead: Nvidia’s earnings announcement on Nov. 19. Expectations for the semiconductor king are sky-high, but Goldman Sachs analyst James Schneider believes the company can meet the moment. In fact, he just reiterated his “buy” rating on the stock and increased his price target from $210 all the way to $240, which is 18.5% above where shares closed today.

Schneider’s confidence stems in large part from the partnership bonanza Nvidia revealed during the company’s GTC event in Washington, DC this week. But while those big deals are a big deal, he’s more focused on the future: Specifically, he will be listening to the earnings call for details about Nvidia’s “$500 billion datacenter revenue forecast, OpenAI deployments in calendar year 2026, and the Rubin ramp in CY26.”

But the big question on everyone’s mind remains China. With relations between the US and China beginning to thaw, Nvidia could be allowed to sell its full slate of chips in the country once again. If Jensen Huang gives any indication that is the case, his $5 trillion company could be well on its way to $6 trillion.—MR

This Halloween may not just rain candy on kids, it could also bring a sweet stock rally for investors thanks to a phenomenon known as the “Halloween Indicator.”

Also called the “Halloween effect” or “Halloween strategy,” it boils down to this: The six months from Oct. 31 until May 1 tend to bring stronger stock returns than any other six-month period of the year. This means investors trying to time the market should buy stocks in November to ride the wave up, then sell in April before they drop. In other words, “Sell in May and go away” (to that Hamptons beach house, or wherever you veg out) until markets return from the dead next Halloween.

But is it true? Historically, the Halloween effect holds up more often than not. Since the 1890s, the Dow has produced 5.3% annualized returns during winter months versus 1.9% come summer. But the razor in this apple is that it doesn’t work every year, depending on what’s been bubbling in the political and economic cauldron.

Tariff volatility, geopolitical tensions, Fed rate cut fog, and other headwinds could spook a post-Halloween stock rally. We’re also missing the biggest tailwind of all: mid-term elections, which historically spark returns averaging 10% in the six months after they’re held...but that won’t happen until next year. In the year before mid-term elections, returns historically come in below average at around 3%.

Some treats for you: This summer’s record-high gains suggests that Wall Street could finish the year strong. Returns from this year’s “Sell in May” strategy from May through October 2025 averaged 22.5%, according to Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick at Carson Group. And when the S&P 500 is up more than 15% YTD—it’s now up 16%—November and December tend to bring in a combined 4.7% additional returns that could push total-year returns over 20%.

“The momentum off of the April lows has been potent in a way that often signals more gains ahead,” Baird investment strategist Ross Mayfield told Brew Markets. “Since 1950, following at least a 15% drawdown, the 2025 rally is the fourth best. In every instance, the market has been positive six months following a six-month rally of this magnitude. Momentum begets momentum.”

But Mayfield adds that markets can’t simply continue up and to the right nonstop: “I would not be surprised if the market needed to take a breather at some point in the next six months.”

In other words: Be prepared for a few jump-scares.—JD

• The AI hiring apocalypse is becoming all too real, as Jerome Powell warns that, “Job creation is pretty close to zero.”
• Thanks to the Big Beautiful Bill, some US taxpayers could see record refunds in 2026, with the biggest boost going to middle- and upper-income filers.
• Disney pulled more than 20 channels from YouTube TV after contract talks fell apart, leaving millions of viewers in the dark.
• Tesla’s revamped Cybercab is priced under $30,000, and could be the key to unlocking cheaper mass-market EVs.
• Speaking of Elon Musk, his startup SpaceX is set to sign a $2 billion contract to build satellites as part of President Trump’s Golden Dome project.
• It’s not just SNAP recipients feeling the impact of a government shutdown—grocers are bracing for an $8 billion drop in sales as food assistance distribution stalls.
• The bidding war for Warner Bros. Discovery has begun: Netflix has entered the chat.

We’ll kick off November with a couple of reports that don’t depend on government data (for once). We’ve got the S&P manufacturing PMI on Monday, services PMI and the ADP employment report on Wednesday, and a look at consumer credit on Friday. But unless Congress gets its act together ASAP, we’re going to miss a second-straight monthly jobs report on Friday, leaving investors and central bankers alike continuing to fly blind.

Thankfully, we’ve got plenty of earnings announcements to fill the hole in our hearts.

Monday: Palantir, ON Semiconductor, Hims & Hers Health, Sarepta Therapeutics, FuboTV, Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Eastman Chemical, and Pony AI

Tuesday: Saudi Aramco, AMD, Shopify, Uber, Arista Networks, Amgen, Eaton, Pfizer, Spotify, Nintendo, BP, Marriott, Ferrari, Apollo, Zoetis, Live Nation Entertainment, Super Micro Computer, Astera Labs, Pinterest, Toast, Cava, Wingstop, and Hertz

Wednesday: Toyota, Novo Nordisk, McDonald's, AppLovin, Qualcomm, ARM, Robinhood, DoorDash, Fortinet, BMW, Fair Isaac, Cameco, Humana, Figma, Orsted, Duolingo, Snap, Albemarle, Pandora, and Lyft

Thursday: AstraZeneca, D-Wave Quantum, ConocoPhillips, Airbnb, Petrobras, Vistra, Datadog, Warner Bros Discovery, Block, Take-Two, DuPont de Nemours, Kenvue, Sandisk, Expedia, Affirm, DraftKings, Moderna, Peloton, TripAdvisor, Papa John's, Sweetgreen, Under Armour, and Krispy Kreme

Friday: Constellation Energy, KKR, and Wendy’s