| Plus, Big Oil gets gritty. |
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Good afternoon. And a happy early Halloween, which weâll mark with a spooky story: Trick-or-treat bags may feel lighter this weekend. Candy prices have risen nearly 8% in the last year and more than 18% in the last two, according to the latest federal data. Thatâs mostly thanks to a tough cocoa harvest in 2025âand last yearâs cocoa shortages are in this yearâs chocolate prices. Hershey CEO Kirk Tanner cautioned yesterday that âfinancial pressuresâ could change how many households would be buying up Reeseâs and KitKats. Weâre sorry if your bill was frightening. But remember: The scariest thing on Halloween is still the house handing out raisins. âHelena Cheng, Judy Dutton, Sissy Yan, and Gabriela Riccardi In todayâs newsletter: - Big Oil refines its rough edges
- The tech selloff spins out
- Binanceâs cyberheist of the century
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| - Stocks: The Nasdaq fell as much as 3.7% intraday as a tech selloff continued, with investors pulling out of the AI trade and into safer areas of the market.
- Bonds: 10-year Treasury yields remained under 5% on yesterdayâs strong GDP data, and the Treasury Department also announced a new Series I bond rate of 5.51% for the next six months.
- Crypto: Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency prices plunged thanks to a $6.3 billion hack at Binance, making it the largest cyberheist in history (more on that below).
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Earnings Big Oil is pumped up  Illustration: Morning Brew Inc., Photo: Adobe Stock | It was a gusher of a quarter for US oil giants Chevron and ExxonMobil. But forget âdrill, baby, drillââthe real money was in refine, baby, refine. Reporting earnings today, both companies blew past expectations on both top and bottom lines: Chevronâs net income surged nearly 200% in Q3 to $9.9 billion, or $5.06 a share, while ExxonMobilâs quarterly profits doubled to $15.4 billion, or $3.72 a share. These bumper profits didnât come from the usual cash cow of pumping crude. Upstream production has actually dipped slightly at both companies as the Middle East conflict disrupts drilling operations. But in a surprise benefit, attacks by Ukraine and Iran have also knocked out refineries in Russia and the Middle Eastâgiving US companies an opening to pick up the slack and ramp up their own refinery activity at home. The numbers say it all: Chevronâs US refineries have been firing on nearly all cylinders, running at 98% capacity and processing a record 1.09 million barrels of crude per day. That helped send refining profits soaring 300% year-over-year to $4.9 billionâthe companyâs biggest downstream payday in six years. Similarly, Exxonâs Gulf Coast refineries ran at 100% capacity and produced their second-highest volume of diesel on record. Refining profits of $7.2 billion even edged out the $7.1 billion it made by extracting oil and gas from the groundâa first in the same six-year time frame. This surprising news gassed both companiesâ stocks today, with Chevron up 1.75% and Exxon up 2.25%. Pain at the pumpWall Street may be impressed, but Main Street not so much. High gas prices have become a political pothole ahead of Tuesdayâs midterm elections. So rather than laugh all the way to the bank, Exxon CFO Neil Hansen put it differently. âItâs important to acknowledge that these higher fuel prices put real pressure on families and businesses,â he told Reuters. Exxon hopes to ease it by pulling âevery lever thatâs available to us to increase supply.â Chevron and Exxon are both plowing some of their windfall back into refining their refineries. Exxon expects those investments to boost US distillate production of diesel and other fuels by another 100,000 barrels per day, though it didnât say when. Chevron also sees room to squeeze more out of its Gulf Coast facilities, including a potential 7% capacity boost by the end of the decade, CFO Eimear Bonner told Reuters. Both firms have also used their profits to knock out debt, with Exxon cutting its IOUs by $8 billion and Chevron by nearly $14 billion. Even though business is booming now, the good times may not last: Bonner said Brent crude, the global benchmark, bounced between $68 and $132 per barrel last quarter, underscoring just how quickly the energy market can turn and veer into uncharted territory.âJD |
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Stocks  | đą Whatâs up- FedEx Freight climbed 14.91% thanks to an upbeat fourth-quarter outlook that signaled improving demand for freight transportation.
- Rivian surged 6.20% on stronger-than-expected quarterly results and a raised full-year vehicle delivery forecast.
- Regeneron Pharmaceuticals rallied 13.33% as record sales of its Dupixent, EYLEA HD, and Libtayo drugs fueled an earnings beat.
- MondelÄz International gained 3.85% following better-than-expected quarterly earnings, helped by cost-cutting efforts.
- AstraZeneca rose 6.78% on strong cancer drug sales and plans for a $1.5 billion cost-savings program alongside an earnings beat.
đŽ Whatâs down- Sandisk fell 13.54% despite beating quarterly earnings and revenue expectations and announcing an 8-for-1 stock split.
- Nvidia dropped 4.15% as Amazonâs massive AI spending and deteriorating cash flow fueled a broader selloff in chip stocks.
- Reddit plunged 29.34% as Googleâs AI search features drove down referral traffic, raising fears that its daily active users could decline by double digits this quarter.
- Twilio sank 15.48% following a cut to its fourth-quarter revenue forecast.
- Roblox tumbled 18.13% as daily active users fell 9% from a year earlier, while engagement hours dropped 15%.
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Stocks of the day A tech wreck  Illustration: Morning Brew Inc., Photo: Adobe Stock | The AI boom has finally encountered its most formidable opponent: basic accounting. After Alphabet shed roughly $500 billion in market value yesterday, Amazon and Intel became the latest tech giants to disappoint Wall Street, as investors grew increasingly impatient with Big Techâs spending habits and uncertain growth prospects. Thatâs led to a selloff spiral among tech stocks: All three indexes traded lower, particularly the Nasdaq, which dropped more than 3.5% throughout intraday trading. The damage reportIntel: The chipmakerâs quarterly revenue jumped 21% to $16.5 billion, but its fourth-quarter outlook fell well short of estimates. Weak PC demand, rising memory prices, and an explosion at its Israeli chip plant are complicating the turnaround. Intel warned that it expects to burn cash this year despite demand for its AI server chips. Shares plunged 28.58% today. Amazon: The e-commerce giant reported $201.9 billion in quarterly revenue, up 12% but slightly below expectations. Cloud business grew a whopping 39%, its fastest pace in nearly five years. But investors were skeptical of the bill: Amazonâs free cash flow plunged to negative $42.4 billion year-over-year thanks to pouring money into AI infrastructure. The company expects to spend $220 billion on capital expenditures this year, with more planned for 2027. Shares fell 1.41% today. Should you buy the dip?Morgan Stanleyâs Mike Wilson believes the broader market correction may be nearing its end, while JPMorgan Chaseâs Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou sees signs that selling pressure on AI stocks could be easing. Strategist Ted Mortonson at Baird is less convinced, urging investors to wait until tech stocks stabilize before jumping in. âFrom the retail perspective, youâre taking a knife to a gunfight,â he told finance podcast Excess Returns. âWeâre generally about six months ahead of you.ââSY |
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Digital currency Cryptoâs biggest heist has a middleman problem  Illustration: Shannon May, Photo: Adobe Stock | Halloween horrors came early for crypto investors. At around 4pm ET Thursday, money started disappearing from Binance. In roughly 20 minutes, hackers siphoned about $6.3 billion from the worldâs largest crypto exchange, making for what appears to be the biggest crypto heist of all time. The blockchain itself wasnât broken. Attackers instead compromised infrastructure Binance uses to approve withdrawals, letting unauthorized transfers look legitimate. Binance froze withdrawals and said in a post on X that customers would be made whole. But the market got spooked anyway. Bitcoin fell to a six-week low, ether hit its lowest level in two months, and Coinbase, Strategy, and Robinhood also slid. Even digital money can still produce a very analog panic. And for an industry built around not having to trust a middleman, thatâs not the way youâd expect to lose billions. Trustless, with terms and conditionsBlockchains were designed to let people own and move assets without relying on a bank or broker. In practice, most investors would rather not spend Saturday guarding a seed phrase like itâs the nuclear codes, so they use exchanges instead. But that convenience brings the middleman back. Your crypto may live on a decentralized network, but somebody still has to keep the keys safe, approve withdrawals, and make sure the platform itself doesnât become the weak link. Recent hacks show why that matters. Attackers stole $1.5 billion from Bybit last year in a heist the FBI linked to North Korea, while Polymarket briefly halted trading this week after a third-party security provider was compromised. The attackers are also getting more sophisticated. OpenAI recently disclosed that research agents testing cybersecurity capabilities found exposed credentials and access tokens, using them to gain deeper system access. When billions can move in seconds, one bad credential can become a very expensive shortcut. The vault is part of the valuationThat matters as more institutional money moves into crypto. EY data from this year finds that 73% of institutional investors planned to increase their digital-asset allocations, while most investors with direct crypto exposure preferred regulated vehicles over holding the coins themselves. Professional investors increasingly want regulated custodians, insurance, and a clear answer about who pays if something disappears. Thatâs now helping drive demand for crypto-specific insurance that can cover anything from stolen keys to wallet breaches and custody failures. The bigger takeaway: Security is starting to look less like a cost center and more like a competitive moat. Exchanges that can prove they have stronger custody, deeper reserves, and better loss protection may have an easier time winning institutional money. A major breach can do the opposite by draining capital, raising insurance and compliance costs, and making customers think twice about where they park their assets. For crypto this Halloween, the scary part isnât the trick. Itâs figuring out who you trust with the treat.âHC |
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News  | - Meta settled its latest teen social media addiction lawsuit for an unknown number, though its previous settlements may offer a clue to how much.
- Big Tech generated record cash this year, but returned just a tiny slice of it back to investors.
- Gen Z is helping drive a TikTok-fueled boom for this drive-through chain, proving the latest caffeine flex may be ordered behind the wheel.
- The NYC Marathon brings in a shocking amount of money for the city, making 26.2 miles an excellent business model.
- Intel may be the lowest performer in the S&P 500 this monthâbut the highest is a surprise hit.
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Calendar  | Monday: Apple and Palantir lead tech earnings, while Marriott and EstĂ©e Lauder give us a glimpse at consumer demand. Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Williams Companies, Diamondback Energy, and Realty Income also release quarterly numbers. Then weâll get clues about industrial demand and inflation with the ISM Manufacturing PMI. Tuesday: The JOLTS report drops, giving us a major read on the labor market. Earnings from AMD, Arista Networks, and Eaton provide a look at AI infrastructure, while Shopify, Booking Holdings, Amgen, Pfizer, Marathon Petroleum, Apollo, and Ferrari also report. Wednesday: The ADP employment report will offer early clues about private-sector hiring. Arm and Qualcomm lead chip earnings. McDonaldâs, Uber, Kraft Heinz, SharkNinja, MercadoLibre, Novo Nordisk, CVS Health, Expedia, McKesson, and Datadog also report. Thursday: Toyota, Sony, Airbnb, and Cloudflare headline earnings. ConocoPhillips, Canadian Natural Resources, Duke Energy, Southern Company, and Cigna also release quarterly numbers. Friday: All eyes will be on the official jobs report, which will reveal hiring strength and wage pressures for the economy. Weâll also get the preliminary University of Michigan consumer survey. As for earnings, weâll hear from Moderna and Humana on healthcare and Enbridge, Vistra, and Oklo on energy. |
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This time last week... | đŸ Readersâ most-clicked story was about how hackers could be coming for your iPhone. Hereâs how to protect your money from new iOS threats. |
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